Try the model
M-OH

Miami (OH) 25 at Northern Illinois 14

NIU
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Huskie Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:42 · Brady Davidson punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense−10.5Pregame prior−3.6Garbage-time factor−3.6Score differential−4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:23: Brady Davidson pass complete to Jake Appleget for 17 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK) — NIU win probability +6.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:23: Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 03:23 — M-OH win probability +3.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:57: D'Shawntae Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK) — M-OH win probability +5.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:11: Dequan Finn pass complete to Deion Colzie for 8 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK) — M-OH win probability +15.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:31: Dom Dzioban 24 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +2.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9M-OH made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 10:28M-OH 4th & 4 at NIU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:45M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:30NIU 4th & 1 at M-OH 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    45.3%−1.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:22NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:04M-OH 4th & 5 at NIU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    44.6%−1.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    44.6%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:51M-OH 4th & 5 at NIU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−5.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:12NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 33, up 4
    Close callPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:01M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:25NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:30M-OH 4th & 10 at NIU 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−5.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:30NIU 4th & 26 at NIU 9, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−3.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:42NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 46, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:08M-OH 4th & 15 at M-OH 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−3.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:01NIU 4th & 11 at M-OH 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%−2.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:34M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 25, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.8%−2.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:40M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−1.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:04NIU 4th & 14 at NIU 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−3.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:31M-OH 4th & 4 at NIU 6, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−7.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:55NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:18NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:23NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:57M-OH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:11M-OH Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:2760% → 59%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
40.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Cole Weaver for 10 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
40.3%
Jordan Brunson run for 1 yd to the M-OH 36Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
40.5%
Dequan Finn run for 10 yds to the M-OH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
40.6%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the NIU 49Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
40.7%
Kenny Tracy run for 6 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
40.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for no gain to the NIU 43Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
40.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 6 yds to the NIU 37Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
41.1%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Kam PerrySimilar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
41.4%
Pierse Stainton punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
43.4%
Lazaro Rogers run for 76 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2256% → 55%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.7%
Jordan Brunson run for 6 yds to the M-OH 31Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
44.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
44.3%
Dequan Finn sacked by Dasean Dixon for a loss of 5 yards to the M-OH 26Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+3
45.3%
Pierse Stainton punt for 37 yds , DeAree Rogers returns for 3 yds to the NIU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 60 yds · 5:2245% → 56%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
45.0%
PENALTY NIU Illegal Snap (Hron,Landon) 5 yards from NIU40 to NIU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+6
44.5%
Brady Davidson pass complete to La'Don Bryant for 6 yds to the NIU 41Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
46.0%
Brady Davidson pass complete to La'Don Bryant for 5 yds to the NIU 46Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+6
46.0%
Brady Davidson pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 6 yds to the M-OH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
46.9%
Brady Davidson pass complete to Telly Johnson Jr. for 1 yd to the M-OH 47Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+8
47.3%
Brady Davidson pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 8 yds to the M-OH 39Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
47.5%
Chavon Wright run for no gain to the M-OH 39Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
47.4%
Chavon Wright run for 3 yds to the M-OH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
48.8%
Brady Davidson pass complete to Telly Johnson Jr. for 17 yds to the M-OH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
49.3%
Brady Davidson pass incomplete to Gary GivensSimilar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
49.4%
Lazaro Rogers run for 2 yds to the M-OH 17Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+17
55.8%
Brady Davidson pass complete to Jake Appleget for 17 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2047% → 52%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 7 yds to the M-OH 32Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
52.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Keith ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
52.4%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the M-OH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+56
52.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Kam Perry for 56 yds to the NIU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
51.7%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the NIU 2Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
53.0%
D'Shawntae Jones run for 1 yd to the NIU 1Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.0%
D'Shawntae Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:2954% → 55%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
53.6%
Lazaro Rogers run for 2 yds to the NIU 27Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
54.0%
Lazaro Rogers run for 7 yds to the NIU 34Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
54.1%
Chavon Wright run for 3 yds to the NIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
55.6%
Jalen Macon run for 5 yds to the NIU 42Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
56.5%
Jalen Macon run for 1 yd to the NIU 43Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-5
56.4%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Tweedy,Aidan) 5 yards from NIU43 to NIU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
56.0%
Brady Davidson pass incomplete to Gary GivensSimilar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+13
55.0%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 49 yds , Lynel Billups-Williams returns for 13 yds to the M-OH 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7FG
17 plays · 50 yds · 6:2447% → 45%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
53.1%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Lynel Billups-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-2
53.5%
Jordan Brunson run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 24Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+22
55.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Cole Weaver for 22 yds to the M-OH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
53.2%
Jordan Brunson run for 8 yds to the NIU 46Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+3
52.6%
Jordan Brunson run for 3 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
53.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Kam PerrySimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-10
53.8%
(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan rush right for 1 yard gain to the NIU42, out of bounds at NIU42 PENALTY MIA Holding (Terrill,Drew) 10 yards from NIU43 to MIA47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 20
OWN 47
0
56.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Kam PerrySimilar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 20
OWN 47
+15
57.1%
Dequan Finn run for 15 yds to the NIU 38Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+9
57.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Kam Perry for 9 yds to the NIU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
54.9%
Jordan Brunson run for 9 yds to the NIU 20Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 1
OPP 20
-6
55.2%
Dequan Finn sacked by Quinn Urwiler for a loss of 6 yards to the NIU 26Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+2
57.3%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the NIU 24Similar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
55.2%
Dom Dzioban 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3155% → 55%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
55.2%
Lazaro Rogers run for 6 yds to the NIU 31Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
56.5%
Brady Davidson pass complete to Telly Johnson Jr. for 2 yds to the NIU 33Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
56.0%
Brady Davidson pass incomplete to La'Don BryantSimilar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+7
55.3%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 50 yds , Lynel Billups-Williams returns for 7 yds to the M-OH 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:0242% → 38%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
57.8%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the M-OH 27Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+1
57.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 1 yd to the M-OH 28Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+10
61.0%
Dequan Finn run for 10 yds to the M-OH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
59.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Kam PerrySimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
59.6%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the M-OH 39Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
60.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Kam PerrySimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
62.4%
Pierse Stainton punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3159% → 58%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
58.5%
Chavon Wright run for 5 yds to the NIU 27Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
58.8%
Brady Davidson pass incomplete to George DimopoulosSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+2
59.1%
Chavon Wright run for 2 yds to the NIU 29Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+5
57.9%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 32 yds , Lynel Billups-Williams returns for 5 yds to the M-OH 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11MISSED FG
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:1539% → 41%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
60.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Cole Weaver for 18 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
58.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Deion ColzieSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
58.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 5 yds to the NIU 33Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+50
58.6%
Dom Dzioban 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
60.7%
Chavon Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.2%
Brady Davidson pass intercepted Koy Beasley return for no gain to the NIU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14FG
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2551% → 48%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
49.5%
PENALTY MIA Illegal Substitution 5 yards from NIU28 to NIU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
51.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Kam PerrySimilar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+2
51.8%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the NIU 31Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+3
53.5%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the NIU 28Similar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
52.4%
Dom Dzioban 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 2:0054% → 42%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
53.5%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Ozoh,Izuchukwu) 5 yards from NIU25 to NIU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
53.2%
Lazaro Rogers run for 2 yds to the NIU 22Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-13
53.0%
Brady Davidson sacked by Adam Trick for a loss of 13 yards to the NIU 9 Brady Davidson fumbled, recovered by NIU Izuchukwu Ozoh , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 26
OWN 9
0
50.9%
Brady Davidson pass complete to Telly Johnson Jr. for no gain to the NIU 9Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
42.3%
Danny Vuckovic punt blocked by Jermaine Agee, punt out-of-bounds at the NIU 0 for a SAFETY blocked by Jermaine Agee for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:1359% → 75%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
50
+21
40.6%
Dequan Finn run for 21 yds to the NIU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
38.9%
Jordan Brunson run for 10 yds to the NIU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
38.9%
Jordan Brunson run for 3 yds to the NIU 16Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+7
39.0%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan sacked for loss of 5 yards to the NIU21 (Williams,Roy) PENALTY NIU Holding 7 yards from NIU16 to NIU09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
38.9%
Keith Reynolds run for 6 yds to the NIU 3Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
38.9%
(08:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass complete short right to Weaver,Cole caught at NIU00, for 3 yards to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 08:16 PENALTY MIA Illegal Touch-Pass (Weaver,Cole). NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
41.2%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Smith,Eric) 5 yards from NIU03 to NIU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
25.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Deion Colzie for 8 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:2229% → 28%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.7%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the NIU 29Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
29.1%
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Davidson,Brady pass incomplete short right thrown to NIU35 PENALTY MIA Roughing The Passer 15 yards from NIU29 to NIU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
31.1%
Brady Davidson pass incomplete to Gary GivensSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
30.1%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the NIU 46Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
28.9%
Brady Davidson pass incomplete to Gary GivensSimilar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
27.9%
Brady Davidson punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:2372% → 73%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
28.2%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the M-OH 13Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+6
28.0%
Jordan Brunson run for 6 yds to the M-OH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
27.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Cole Weaver for 12 yds to the M-OH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
25.2%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 28 Dequan Finn fumbled, recovered by M-OH Dequan FinnSimilar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 13
OWN 28
0
25.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Braylon IsomSimilar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 13
OWN 28
-2
26.2%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 26Similar
Q3 3:08
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
26.9%
Pierse Stainton punt for 48 yds, fair catch by DeAree Rogers at the NIU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:5925% → 23%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
25.0%
Lazaro Rogers run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 24Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+1
24.4%
Lazaro Rogers run for 1 yd to the NIU 25Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+20
23.0%
Brady Davidson pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 20 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
26.9%
Chavon Wright run for 11 yds to the M-OH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
28.4%
Brady Davidson pass incomplete to Gary GivensSimilar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
27.8%
Brady Davidson pass complete to Chavon Wright for a loss of 1 yard to the M-OH 45Similar
Q3 0:07
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
25.5%
Brady Davidson pass incomplete to Gary GivensSimilar
Q3 0:01
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
23.4%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Lynel Billups-Williams at the M-OH 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:2077% → 79%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
23.1%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the M-OH 18Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+7
23.5%
Jordan Brunson run for 7 yds to the M-OH 25Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
21.8%
Jordan Brunson run for no gain to the M-OH 25Similar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+3
21.9%
Jordan Brunson run for 3 yds to the M-OH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
18.7%
Jordan Brunson run for 4 yds to the M-OH 32Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-3
18.5%
Jordan Brunson run for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 29Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
20.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Deion ColzieSimilar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
20.7%
Pierse Stainton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by DeAree Rogers at the NIU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:2920% → 17%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
20.4%
Lazaro Rogers run for 4 yds to the NIU 32Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-3
20.4%
Brady Davidson sacked by Jackson Kuwatch for a loss of 3 yards to the NIU 29Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
18.0%
Brady Davidson pass incomplete to DeAree RogersSimilar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 9
OWN 29
-5
17.4%
PENALTY NIU Delay Of Game 5 yards from NIU29 to NIU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 14
OWN 24
+50
17.2%
punt blocked by Brock Uihlein blocked by Brock UihleinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22FG
18 plays · 68 yds · 6:2684% → 96%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
16.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Kam Perry for 11 yds to the M-OH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
15.3%
Jordan Brunson run for 4 yds to the M-OH 41Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
14.0%
Jordan Brunson run for 2 yds to the M-OH 43Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
12.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Cole Weaver for 5 yds to the M-OH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
11.5%
Jordan Brunson run for 1 yd to the M-OH 49Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+7
9.6%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the NIU 44Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+7
8.4%
D'Shawntae Jones run for 7 yds to the NIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
7.9%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the NIU 37Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
7.4%
(04:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete deep right to Reynolds,Keith thrown to NIU13 PENALTY NIU Pass Interference 15 yards from NIU37 to NIU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
6.6%
Dequan Finn run for 10 yds to the NIU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
6.0%
Jordan Brunson run for 2 yds to the NIU 10Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-5
6.0%
PENALTY MIA False Start 5 yards from NIU10 to NIU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+3
6.3%
Jordan Brunson run for 3 yds to the NIU 12Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+6
6.7%
Jordan Brunson run for 6 yds to the NIU 6Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
4.3%
Dom Dzioban 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23FUMBLE
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:558% → 9%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
7.9%
Brady Davidson pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 6 yds to the NIU 32Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
8.3%
Brady Davidson pass incomplete to Jake ApplegetSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
8.0%
Brady Davidson pass incomplete to Gary GivensSimilar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+19
7.8%
Brady Davidson pass complete to George Dimopoulos for 19 yds to the M-OH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
9.2%
Brady Davidson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
9.0%
(02:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Davidson,Brady pass incomplete short left thrown to MIA40 PENALTY MIA Holding 10 yards from MIA49 to MIA39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
9.5%
Brady Davidson pass incomplete to George DimopoulosSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
9.2%
Brady Davidson pass incomplete to La'Don BryantSimilar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-3
8.8%
Brady Davidson sacked by Corban Hondru for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 42 Brady Davidson fumbled, recovered by M-OH Mychal Yharbrough , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:1297% → 98%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
3.3%
D'Shawntae Jones run for 3 yds to the M-OH 45Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
2.6%
D'Shawntae Jones run for 2 yds to the M-OH 47Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+9
2.5%
D'Shawntae Jones run for 9 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
2.3%
D. Finn takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:11
Dequan Finn pass complete to Deion Colzie for 8 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
-15.8
TD · Q1 3:23
Brady Davidson pass complete to Jake Appleget for 17 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q2 14:57
D'Shawntae Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com