Try the model
TOL

Toledo 21 at Central Michigan 3

CMU
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:23 · (03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush middle for 7 yards gain (7) to the CMU13 fumbled by #7 K.Osborne at CMU15 forced by #85 J.Douglas recovered by CMU #56 K.Demma at CMU13, End Of Play PENALTY Toledo UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#65 S.Gales) 15 yards from CMU13 to CMU28, 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior−2.2Home team on offense−36.4Score differential−14.5Garbage-time factor−11.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−10.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.8
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:27: (03:30) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Toledo39 (#20 L.Long; #7 E.McNeil-Warren) — CMU win probability +6.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:10: (00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short middle to #1 C.Trayanum caught at Toledo42, for 57 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:10, 1ST DOWN #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) — TOL win probability +29.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:06: (00:11) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short left to #8 D.Temple thrown to CMU35 QB hurried by #12 E.Carter — CMU win probability +6.3 pts (now 33%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:55: (11:59) Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Toledo47 (#17 M.Blackwell; #47 C.Graham) — TOL win probability +8.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:41: (08:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:41 #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) PENALTY #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) PENALTY CMU Personal Foul 15 yards from CMU00 to Toledo50 #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) PENALTY CMU Personal Foul (#15 C.Spann) 15 yards from CMU00 to Toledo50 — TOL win probability +15.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 7
  1. Q1 11:51TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:08CMU 4th & 3 at TOL 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:11TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:32CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:26CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:20TOL 4th & 12 at CMU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:38CMU 4th & 1 at TOL 10, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.0%−1.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−6.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:01TOL 4th & 2 at CMU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.8%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:01CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:18TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 29, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:21CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:55TOL 4th & 8 at CMU 25, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.6%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    51.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−9.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:00CMU 4th & 4 at TOL 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−2.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−4.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:01CMU 4th & 3 at TOL 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    34.1%−2.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−4.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:23TOL 4th & 7 at CMU 20, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    92.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−2.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:56CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q4 8:41TOL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 1:49TOL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:0584% → 82%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.4%
(15:00) Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush left for 5 yards gain to the Toledo30 (#2 E.Rikard; #96 Q.Bird)Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
16.6%
(14:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Toledo35 (#3 B.Deasfernandes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
16.8%
PENALTY Toledo False Start (#52 A.Boswell) 5 yards from Toledo35 to Toledo30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+2
17.0%
(13:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Toledo32 (#1 D.Cochran)Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+5
17.3%
(13:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short left to #1 C.Trayanum caught at Toledo26, for 5 yards to the Toledo37 (#1 D.Cochran)Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+6
17.7%
(12:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short middle to #11 R.Treadway caught at Toledo40, for 6 yards to the Toledo43 (#6 K.Carroll)Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
17.9%
(12:01) #36 E.Duran punt 47 yards to the CMU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2DOWNS
13 plays · 87 yds · 6:3118% → 22%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+34
18.0%
(11:51) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete deep middle to #19 T.McIntosh caught at CMU30, for 34 yards to the CMU44, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
18.6%
(11:06) Shotgun #20 L.Lewis rush left for 2 yards gain to the CMU46 (#3 A.Fuller; #49 C.D'Appolonia)Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+3
18.9%
(10:29) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU49 (#20 L.Long; #7 E.McNeil-Warren)Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+14
19.3%
(09:47) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #20 L.Lewis caught at Toledo48, for 14 yards to the Toledo37 (#38 K.Sherman), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
19.8%
(09:13) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Toledo31 (#3 A.Fuller)Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+12
20.2%
(08:33) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 12 yards gain to the Toledo19 (#4 A.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
20.6%
(07:52) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Toledo14 (#49 C.D'Appolonia)Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+11
21.1%
(07:10) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 11 yards gain to the Toledo03 (#97 A.Dunn; #38 K.Sherman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
21.3%
(06:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 3 yards loss to the Toledo06 (#20 L.Long)Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
21.8%
(06:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Labas rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Toledo03 (#93 M.Davis; #38 K.Sherman)Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-97
22.0%
(05:16) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short middle to #19 T.McIntosh thrown to Toledo00 broken up by #7 E.McNeil-WarrenSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
21.7%
(05:11) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #19 T.McIntosh caught at Toledo03, for 2 yards to the Toledo01 (#3 A.Fuller), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:4779% → 76%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
21.5%
(05:06) Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short right to #9 T.Rudolph caught at Toledo06, for 6 yards to the Toledo07 (#1 D.Cochran)Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 4
OWN 6
+5
21.8%
(04:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush left for 5 yards gain to the Toledo12 (#85 J.Douglas; #12 J.Kwiatkowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
21.8%
(04:09) Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short right to #2 J.Vandeross III caught at Toledo16, for 9 yards to the Toledo21 (#3 B.Deasfernandes; #10 E.Gordon)Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 1
OWN 21
0
21.9%
(03:27) Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete short middle to #2 J.Vandeross III thrown to Toledo26 broken up by #12 J.KwiatkowskiSimilar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+3
22.4%
(03:25) Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Toledo24 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski; #94 D.Fisher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
22.5%
(02:52) Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete deep left to #2 J.Vandeross III thrown to Toledo48Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-1
22.6%
(02:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush left for 1 yard loss to the Toledo23 (#97 M.Heldman)Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+7
23.1%
(02:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short right to #89 J.Petersen caught at Toledo27, for 7 yards to the Toledo30 (#4 J.Jackson; #3 B.Deasfernandes)Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
23.6%
(01:20) #36 E.Duran punt 40 yards to the CMU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3024% → 24%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
24.0%
(01:10) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #20 L.Lewis caught at CMU33, for 4 yards to the CMU34 (#4 A.Smith; #7 E.McNeil-Warren)Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
24.6%
(00:36) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU38 (#0 N.Bowers)Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-6
25.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 6 yards loss to the CMU32 (#6 B.Awls)Similar
Q2 14:32
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
24.0%
(14:37) #18 D.Duley punt 43 yards to the Toledo25 fair catch by #12 B.Hammer at Toledo25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5KICKOFF
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:2076% → 76%
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
24.0%
(14:32) Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Toledo26 (#6 K.Carroll)Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
24.5%
(14:01) Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete deep left to #2 J.Vandeross III thrown to Toledo46. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+20
24.9%
(13:57) Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short right to #81 E.Holley III caught at Toledo36, for 20 yards to the Toledo46 (#3 B.Deasfernandes), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
23.5%
(13:31) No Huddle #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 11 yards gain to the CMU43 (#4 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
23.4%
(13:11) No Huddle #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU41 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+23
23.7%
(12:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason rush middle for 23 yards gain to the CMU18 (#2 E.Rikard; #12 J.Kwiatkowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
23.2%
(12:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush left for 1 yard gain to the CMU17 (#98 J.Decker; #12 J.Kwiatkowski) PENALTY Toledo Holding (#52 A.Boswell) 10 yards from CMU18 to CMU28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+17
23.8%
(11:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short right to #5 T.Crosby Jr. caught at CMU17, for 17 yards to the CMU11 (#6 K.Carroll)Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 3
OPP 11
0
23.6%
(11:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete short middle to #5 T.Crosby Jr. thrown to CMU00Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 3
OPP 11
0
24.3%
(11:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete short left to #89 J.Petersen thrown to CMU00 broken up by #15 C.Spann QB hurried by #1 D.CochranSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3728% → 28%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
27.9%
(11:03) #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU12 (#49 C.D'Appolonia)Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 12
-2
28.5%
(10:21) #5 N.Biggins rush right for 2 yards loss to the CMU10 (#3 A.Fuller)Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
28.6%
(09:37) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short right to #20 L.Lewis thrown to CMU19 broken up by #6 B.AwlsSimilar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
28.2%
(09:28) #18 D.Duley punt 43 yards to the Toledo47 fair catch by #12 B.Hammer at Toledo47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 3:0174% → 71%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
26.0%
(09:25) Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete deep left to #2 J.Vandeross III thrown to CMU27Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
26.4%
(09:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush right for 4 yards gain to the CMU49 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski; #10 E.Gordon)Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+10
26.3%
(08:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short left to #2 J.Vandeross III caught at CMU50, for 7 yards to the CMU42 (#2 E.Rikard; #10 E.Gordon) PENALTY Toledo Holding (#55 I.Traore) 10 yards from CMU49 to Toledo41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 16
OWN 41
+24
27.8%
(08:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short middle to #2 J.Vandeross III caught at CMU43, for 24 yards to the CMU35 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
24.8%
(07:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush right for 1 yard loss to the CMU36 (#97 M.Heldman)Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+5
25.9%
(07:10) PENALTY Toledo Delay Of Game (#4 T.Gleason) 5 yards from CMU36 to CMU41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 16
OPP 41
0
26.9%
(07:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete short right to #5 T.Crosby Jr. thrown to CMU32 QB hurried by #1 D.CochranSimilar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 16
OPP 41
+4
27.9%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short middle to #5 T.Crosby Jr. caught at CMU37, for 4 yards to the CMU37 (#6 K.Carroll; #4 J.Jackson)Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
28.9%
(06:25) #36 E.Duran punt 34 yards to the CMU03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8FG
16 plays · 87 yds · 5:2232% → 41%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
31.6%
(06:07) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short right to #8 D.Temple thrown to CMU15 QB hurried by #8 M.PoynterSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+4
31.6%
(06:00) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU07 (#12 E.Carter; #46 J.Peters)Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+5
31.2%
(05:21) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete deep right to #19 T.McIntosh thrown to CMU34 PENALTY Toledo Offside (#46 J.Peters) 5 yards from CMU07 to CMU12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+3
31.4%
(05:15) #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU15 (#49 C.D'Appolonia; #97 A.Dunn), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
32.8%
(04:36) #5 N.Biggins rush right for 2 yards loss to the CMU13 (#9 L.Julien; #8 M.Poynter), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+5
33.1%
PENALTY CMU False Start (#76 M.Koivisto) 5 yards from CMU13 to CMU08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+10
33.4%
(03:35) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #8 D.Temple caught at CMU13, for 10 yards to the CMU18 (#3 A.Fuller), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+21
33.3%
(03:01) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #19 T.McIntosh caught at CMU23, for 21 yards to the CMU39, out of bounds at CMU39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
35.7%
(02:26) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush right for 5 yards gain to the CMU44 (#4 A.Smith)Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+37
36.5%
(02:00) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete deep middle to #20 L.Lewis caught at Toledo19, for 37 yards to the Toledo19, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
38.8%
(01:33) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Toledo18 (#6 B.Awls)Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+5
39.5%
(00:52) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #22 B.Townsend caught at Toledo17, for 5 yards to the Toledo13 (#4 A.Smith)Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+5
38.0%
PENALTY CMU False Start (#19 T.McIntosh) 5 yards from Toledo13 to Toledo18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+8
38.0%
(00:49) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #20 L.Lewis caught at Toledo15, for 8 yards to the Toledo10 QB hurried by #8 M.Poynter (#3 A.Fuller), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+28
41.2%
(00:41) #47 C.Graham field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt), clock 00:38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9END OF HALF
8 plays · -4 yds · 0:2660% → 58%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
40.4%
(00:30) Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete short right to #9 T.Rudolph thrown to Toledo47Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
41.1%
(00:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CMU47 fumbled by #4 T.Gleason at CMU48 forced by #12 J.Kwiatkowski recovered by Toledo #55 I.Traore at CMU47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
40.2%
(00:15) Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush right for 0 yards to the CMU47 (#2 E.Rikard)Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-12
42.0%
(00:01) Shotgun #7 K.Osborne sacked for loss of 12 yards to the Toledo41 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5538% → 41%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.3%
(15:00) #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU28 (#6 B.Awls)Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
40.3%
(14:22) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 11 yards gain to the CMU39 (#3 A.Fuller; #20 L.Long), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
42.1%
(13:37) #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU40 (#12 E.Carter; #20 L.Long)Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+2
42.5%
(12:53) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU42 (#4 A.Smith)Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
41.8%
(12:13) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short left to #20 L.Lewis thrown to CMU45 QB hurried by #93 M.DavisSimilar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
40.6%
(12:09) #18 D.Duley punt 58 yards to the Toledo00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3860% → 57%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
40.3%
(12:00) Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Toledo24 (#1 D.Cochran; #98 J.Decker)Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
40.1%
(11:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short left to #1 C.Trayanum caught at Toledo23, for 3 yards to the Toledo27 (#1 D.Cochran)Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
40.9%
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Toledo29 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
42.9%
(10:24) #36 E.Duran punt 40 yards to the CMU31 fair catch by #15 C.Spann at CMU31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5344% → 44%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
43.6%
(10:18) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short middle to #20 L.Lewis thrown to CMU43 broken up by #7 E.McNeil-WarrenSimilar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
43.4%
(10:14) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short right to #22 B.Townsend thrown to CMU25 QB hurried by #58 A.Dunn JrSimilar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+6
42.0%
(10:09) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CMU37 (#7 E.McNeil-Warren; #97 A.Dunn)Similar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
44.0%
(09:36) #18 D.Duley punt 61 yards to the Toledo02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:1856% → 55%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+10
44.4%
(09:21) Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short left to #9 T.Rudolph caught at Toledo06, for 10 yards to the Toledo12 (#2 E.Rikard; #17 M.Blackwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
44.4%
(08:56) Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush left for 13 yards gain to the Toledo25 (#2 E.Rikard; #40 L.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
44.7%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short right to #2 J.Vandeross III caught at Toledo21, for 15 yards to the Toledo40 (#1 D.Cochran; #2 E.Rikard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+33
42.6%
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush left for 33 yards gain to the CMU27 (#2 E.Rikard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
39.5%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU25 (#1 D.Cochran; #98 J.Decker)Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
39.9%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 0 yards to the CMU25 (#96 Q.Bird; #4 J.Jackson)Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
42.8%
(06:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short left to #89 J.Petersen thrown to CMU08Similar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 8
OPP 25
-4
45.4%
(06:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne sacked for loss of 4 yards to the CMU29 (#97 M.Heldman), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:2651% → 56%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-8
51.4%
(05:55) Shotgun #2 J.Labas sacked for loss of 8 yards to the CMU21 (#55 D.Ray Jr.), fumble by #2 J.Labas recovered by CMU #2 J.Labas at CMU21, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 18
OWN 21
+3
50.5%
(04:58) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush right for 3 yards gain to the CMU24 (#58 A.Dunn Jr; #3 A.Fuller)Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+36
50.2%
(04:18) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete deep right to #3 T.Davis caught at Toledo40, for 36 yards to the Toledo40 (#0 N.Bowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
56.8%
(03:30) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Toledo39 (#20 L.Long; #7 E.McNeil-Warren)Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
57.5%
(02:47) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short right to #88 H.Dryden thrown to Toledo38 broken up by #6 B.Awls QB hurried by #7 E.McNeil-WarrenSimilar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+5
56.6%
(02:38) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #19 T.McIntosh caught at Toledo38, for 5 yards to the Toledo34 (#49 C.D'Appolonia)Similar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+3
55.8%
(02:05) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #20 L.Lewis caught at Toledo30, for 3 yards to the Toledo31 (#4 A.Smith), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:4445% → 74%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
55.2%
(01:58) Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Toledo39 (#85 J.Douglas; #40 L.Brown)Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+2
52.2%
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush left for 2 yards gain to the Toledo41 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
54.3%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short right to #89 J.Petersen thrown to CMU42 broken up by #4 J.JacksonSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
55.4%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Toledo43 (#10 E.Gordon)Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+57
26.4%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short middle to #1 C.Trayanum caught at Toledo42, for 57 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:10, 1ST DOWN #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 40 yds · 3:0533% → 37%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.3%
(00:11) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short left to #8 D.Temple thrown to CMU35 QB hurried by #12 E.CarterSimilar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
33.0%
(00:04) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CMU31 (#49 C.D'Appolonia; #38 K.Sherman)Similar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
32.9%
(14:59) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete deep middle to #22 B.Townsend thrown to Toledo45 PENALTY Toledo Pass Interference (#38 K.Sherman) 15 yards from CMU31 to CMU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
36.8%
(14:53) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 12 yards gain to the Toledo42 (#7 E.McNeil-Warren), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
38.5%
(14:10) #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Toledo38 (#20 L.Long; #97 A.Dunn)Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
39.0%
(13:31) #2 J.Labas pass complete deep middle to #20 L.Lewis caught at Toledo12, for 30 yards to the Toledo08 (#4 A.Smith) PENALTY CMU Illegal Formation (#19 T.McIntosh) 5 yards from Toledo38 to Toledo43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
38.4%
(12:59) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short middle to #88 H.Dryden thrown to Toledo40 broken up by #93 M.DavisSimilar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+8
36.2%
(12:52) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #8 D.Temple caught at Toledo38, for 8 yards to the Toledo35 QB hurried by #12 E.Carter (#93 M.Davis; #0 N.Bowers)Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 3
OPP 35
-8
37.1%
(12:08) Shotgun #20 L.Lewis rush right for 8 yards loss to the Toledo43 (#4 A.Smith), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 3:1475% → 94%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
24.9%
(11:59) Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Toledo47 (#17 M.Blackwell; #47 C.Graham)Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
24.6%
(11:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CMU45 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski; #2 E.Rikard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
22.2%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CMU46 (#1 D.Cochran)Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+23
22.8%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short right to #2 J.Vandeross III caught at CMU41, for 23 yards to the CMU23 (#2 E.Rikard), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
21.4%
(09:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush right for 5 yards gain to the CMU18 (#40 L.Brown) PENALTY CMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#6 K.Carroll) 9 yards from CMU18 to CMU09, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
6.3%
(08:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:41 #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) PENALTY #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) PENALTY CMU Personal Foul 15 yards from CMU00 to Toledo50 #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) PENALTY CMU Personal Foul (#15 C.Spann) 15 yards from CMU00 to Toledo50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18INT
4 plays · -14 yds · 1:1712% → 10%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
11.9%
(08:38) Shotgun #2 J.Labas sacked for loss of 7 yards to the CMU18 (#38 K.Sherman)Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-7
11.5%
(07:58) Shotgun #2 J.Labas sacked for loss of 7 yards to the CMU11 (#8 M.Poynter)Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 24
OWN 11
0
10.3%
(07:18) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass intercepted by #7 E.McNeil-Warren at CMU34, End Of Play. Toledo is challenging the ruling on the field - "Interception". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (07:18) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete deep left to #20 L.Lewis thrown to CMU35)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19FUMBLE
6 plays · 6 yds · 3:4195% → 96%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
5.5%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush right for 7 yards gain to the CMU27 (#96 Q.Bird; #27 T.Campbell)Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+4
5.3%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU23 (#15 C.Spann; #96 Q.Bird), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
4.8%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush right for 3 yards gain to the CMU20 (#15 C.Spann)Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+1
4.6%
(04:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush left for 1 yard gain to the CMU19 (#1 D.Cochran)Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-1
4.8%
(04:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CMU20 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+7
4.4%
(03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush middle for 7 yards gain (7) to the CMU13 fumbled by #7 K.Osborne at CMU15 forced by #85 J.Douglas recovered by CMU #56 K.Demma at CMU13, End Of Play PENALTY Toledo UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#65 S.Gales) 15 yards from CMU13 to CMU28, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:125% → 3%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
4.9%
(03:17) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #19 T.McIntosh caught at CMU34, for 6 yards to the CMU34 (#49 C.D'Appolonia)Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 4
OWN 34
-12
5.0%
(02:58) Shotgun #2 J.Labas sacked for loss of 12 yards to the CMU22 (#38 K.Sherman)Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 16
OWN 22
+15
4.3%
(02:25) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #19 T.McIntosh caught at CMU30, for 15 yards to the CMU37 (#6 B.Awls)Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
2.9%
(02:00) Shotgun #2 J.Labas rush middle for 0 yards to the CMU37 (#93 M.Davis), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:0798% → 99%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
2.2%
PENALTY Toledo False Start (#65 S.Gales) 5 yards from CMU37 to CMU42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+42
0.8%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 42 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:49, 1ST DOWN #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22Uncategorized
10 plays · 59 yds · 1:341% → 1%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
0.7%
(01:41) Shotgun #2 J.Labas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU38 (#55 D.Ray Jr.; #49 C.D'Appolonia)Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
0.7%
(01:16) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #5 N.Biggins caught at CMU40, for 8 yards to the CMU46 (#3 A.Fuller; #93 M.Davis)Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
0.7%
(00:51) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Toledo49 (#93 M.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
0.7%
(00:43) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short middle to #20 L.Lewis thrown to Toledo39 broken up by #49 C.D'AppoloniaSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+19
0.7%
(00:37) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 19 yards gain to the Toledo30 (#7 E.McNeil-Warren), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
0.9%
(00:27) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #3 T.Davis caught at Toledo31, for 17 yards to the Toledo13 (#6 B.Awls), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
0.9%
(00:21) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #20 L.Lewis caught at Toledo10, for 5 yards to the Toledo08 (#49 C.D'Appolonia)Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
0.8%
(00:01) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #8 D.Temple caught at Toledo04, for 4 yards to the Toledo04 (#49 C.D'Appolonia; #0 N.Bowers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:10
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short middle to #1 C.Trayanum caught at Toledo42, for 57 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:10, 1ST DOWN #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe)
-29.1
TD · Q4 8:41
(08:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:41 #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) PENALTY #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) PENALTY CMU Personal Foul 15 yards from CMU00 to Toledo50 #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) PENALTY CMU Personal Foul (#15 C.Spann) 15 yards from CMU00 to Toledo50
-15.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:55
(11:59) Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Toledo47 (#17 M.Blackwell; #47 C.Graham)
-8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com