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OHIO

Ohio 31 at Buffalo 26

BUF
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 28, 2025 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:34 · No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short left to #7 C.Hendricks caught at BUF29, for 10 yards to the BUF25 (#8 J.McNair), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Home team on offense−10.9Pregame prior−6.9Score differential−4.1Garbage-time factor−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:43: No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short middle to #7 C.Hendricks caught at BUF00, for 15 yards to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:43, 1ST DOWN #39 D.Dellenbach kick attempt good (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #46 N.Hemer) — OHIO win probability +9.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:39: No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush right for 23 yards gain to the OHI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:39, 1ST DOWN #2 T.Roberson pass attempt failed — BUF win probability +10.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:25: No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:25, 1ST DOWN #39 D.Dellenbach kick attempt good (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #46 N.Hemer) — OHIO win probability +11.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:07: No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson rush right for 5 yards gain to the OHI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:07, 1ST DOWN #2 T.Roberson pass attempt failed — BUF win probability +12.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:47: Jasaiah Gathings 29 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick) — BUF win probability +18.7 pts (now 29%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7OHIO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:49BUF 4th & 2 at OHIO 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.5%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:30BUF 4th & 3 at OHIO 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:20OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:18BUF 4th & 10 at OHIO 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:10OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:01BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:01OHIO 4th & 1 at BUF 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−1.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:44BUF 4th & 26 at BUF 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:34OHIO 4th & 4 at BUF 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    72.9%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:28BUF 4th & 12 at BUF 23, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:19OHIO 4th & 7 at BUF 17, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−7.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:26OHIO 4th & 15 at BUF 39, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    85.4%−0.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:24OHIO 4th & 4 at BUF 15, up 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%−0.4
    83% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−8.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:20OHIO 4th & 2 at OHIO 48, up 5
    Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:29BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 29, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.1%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 4OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:02OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:16BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:01OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:39BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:25OHIO Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:07BUF Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:47BUF Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1665% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
35.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short right to #85 M.Williams thrown to OHI45 PENALTY BUF Pass Interference (#18 D.Crawford) 15 yards from OHI30 to OHI45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
35.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush right for 3 yards gain to the OHI48 (#41 R.Murdock; #18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
35.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BUF46 (#9 K.Bradley; #7 S.Brown)Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-1
35.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BUF47 fumbled by #13 P.Navarro at BUF46 recovered by BUF #8 J.McNair at BUF47, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5536% → 37%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
35.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BUF50 (#22 J.Thomeson)Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 7
50
+3
35.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OHI47 (#10 P.Odjugo)Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+2
35.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #0 V.Snow caught at OHI45, for 2 yards to the OHI45 (#22 J.Thomeson)Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 2
OPP 45
-3
36.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 V.Snow rush right for 3 yards loss to the OHI48 (#5 A.Williams Jr.), out of bounds, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 3:4764% → 65%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
36.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 13 yards gain to the BUF39 (#41 R.Murdock), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
36.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BUF34 (#11 D.Morgan; #18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
36.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BUF30 (#11 D.Morgan)Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+10
36.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush right for 10 yards gain to the BUF20 (#6 M.Greer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
36.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush right for 6 yards gain to the BUF14 (#8 J.McNair)Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+3
36.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush right for 3 yards gain to the BUF11 (#90 G.Wolo; #12 M.White)Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+11
34.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short right to #85 M.Williams caught at BUF10, for 11 yards to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:02, 1ST DOWN #39 D.Dellenbach kick attempt good (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #46 N.Hemer)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:3236% → 36%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short middle to #0 V.Snow thrown to BUF30 broken up by #44 N.DukesSimilar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
35.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush right for 0 yards to the BUF25 (#10 P.Odjugo)Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
35.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #25 T.Shelton, Jr. caught at BUF28, for 10 yards to the BUF35 (#27 J.Fries), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
35.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BUF42 (#2 D.Walker)Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
36.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the BUF46 (#15 A.Luqman; #27 J.Fries), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
36.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #3 N.McMillan caught at OHI49, for 5 yards to the OHI49 (#7 T.Pearson)Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
36.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OHI47 (#98 D.Reagans lll)Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
36.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short middle to #0 V.Snow thrown to OHI43 broken up by #22 J.ThomesonSimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
35.9%
#42 D.Drennan punt 47 yards to the OHI00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1065% → 65%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
35.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short right to #85 M.Williams thrown to OHI25 PENALTY OHI Illegal Forward Pass (#13 P.Navarro) 5 yards from OHI21 to OHI16Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+16
35.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short left to #11 R.Harris II caught at OHI30, for 16 yards to the OHI32 (#36 K.Blackwell), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BUF Holding declinedSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
34.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush right for 0 yards to the OHI32 (#97 J.Poyser), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
35.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Hendricks rush left for 1 yard gain to the OHI33 (#41 R.Murdock)Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
35.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short right to #7 C.Hendricks thrown to OHI45Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
35.5%
#42 M.Haines punt 38 yards to the BUF29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:0235% → 35%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
35.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson rush left for 3 yards gain to the BUF32 (#7 T.Pearson)Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+1
35.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush right for 1 yard gain to the BUF33 (#57 N.Hale; #97 A.Mitchell)Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+7
35.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BUF40 (#7 T.Pearson; #15 A.Luqman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
36.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete deep right to #3 N.McMillan caught at OHI40, for 22 yards to the OHI38 (#5 A.Williams Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
36.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete deep right to #3 N.McMillan thrown to OHI18Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
36.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush right for 3 yards gain to the OHI35 (#7 T.Pearson)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-3
36.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson rush right for 3 yards loss to the OHI38 fumbled by #2 T.Roberson at OHI38 recovered by BUF #2 T.Roberson at OHI38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
35.0%
#42 D.Drennan punt 31 yards to the OHI07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:2365% → 65%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
35.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush right for 2 yards gain to the OHI09 (#0 K.Stewart)Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+6
35.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short right to #5 S.Bangura caught at OHI10, for 6 yards to the OHI15 (#39 M.Gonser), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 2
OWN 15
-4
35.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass intercepted by #36 K.Blackwell at OHI15 #36 K.Blackwell return 4 yards to the OHI11, out of bounds at OHI11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:3938% → 45%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
37.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OHI10 (#10 P.Odjugo)Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
44.7%
Chance Morrow 10 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:0959% → 67%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
40.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short right to #11 R.Harris II thrown to OHI50Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
40.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete deep right to #7 C.Hendricks thrown to BUF27 PENALTY OHI Ineligible Downfield on Pass declinedSimilar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+6
41.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush right for 6 yards gain to the OHI42 (#41 R.Murdock)Similar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+48
41.4%
No Huddle #86 J.Bruno rush middle for 48 yards gain to the BUF10 (#32 L.Sperling), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
38.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush right for 9 yards gain to the BUF01 (#6 M.Greer)Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:01, 1ST DOWN #39 D.Dellenbach kick attempt good (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #46 N.Hemer)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5335% → 34%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
35.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush right for 1 yard gain to the BUF33 (#44 N.Dukes)Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
34.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Gathings thrown to BUF42Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
34.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short right thrown to BUF45Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
33.7%
#42 D.Drennan punt 53 yards to the OHI14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11TD
11 plays · 86 yds · 5:1866% → 77%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
34.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush left for 5 yards gain to the OHI19 (#41 R.Murdock)Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+11
34.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush left for 11 yards gain to the OHI30 (#6 M.Greer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
33.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short right to #7 C.Hendricks caught at OHI35, for 10 yards to the OHI40 (#36 K.Blackwell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
32.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short left to #11 R.Harris II thrown to OHI48 broken up by #36 K.BlackwellSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
33.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush right for 15 yards gain to the BUF45 (#6 M.Greer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
32.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BUF39 (#41 R.Murdock; #7 S.Brown)Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
32.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete deep left to #7 C.Hendricks thrown to BUF01 broken up by #6 M.GreerSimilar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+3
32.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BUF36 (#97 J.Poyser; #12 M.White)Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+26
33.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush left for 26 yards gain to the BUF10 (#15 S.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
32.2%
PENALTY OHI False Start (#59 N.Marinaro) 5 yards from BUF10 to BUF15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
23.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short middle to #7 C.Hendricks caught at BUF00, for 15 yards to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:43, 1ST DOWN #39 D.Dellenbach kick attempt good (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #46 N.Hemer)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 1:5426% → 23%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
25.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #32 L.Sperling rush right for 2 yards gain to the BUF42 (#10 P.Odjugo)Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+11
25.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #32 L.Sperling rush left for 11 yards gain to the OHI47 (#22 J.Thomeson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
26.3%
PENALTY BUF False Start (#3 N.McMillan) 5 yards from OHI47 to BUF48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+1
25.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #8 J.Gathings caught at BUF45, for 1 yard to the BUF49 (#5 A.Williams Jr.)Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 14
OWN 49
-1
25.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #32 L.Sperling caught at BUF47, for 1 yard loss to the BUF48 (#98 D.Reagans lll; #22 J.Thomeson)Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 15
OWN 48
-11
24.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson sacked for loss of 11 yards to the BUF37 (#12 J.Crable)Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 26
OWN 37
0
22.8%
#42 D.Drennan punt 41 yards to the OHI22, out of bounds at OHI22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4778% → 82%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+41
22.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete deep left to #7 C.Hendricks caught at BUF38, for 41 yards to the BUF37, out of bounds at BUF37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
20.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short right to #88 C.Gossett caught at BUF23, for 14 yards to the BUF23 (#7 S.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
20.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro sacked for loss of 4 yards to the BUF27 (#41 R.Murdock, #13 D.Ballard)Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 14
OPP 27
+24
18.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush right for 24 yards gain to the BUF03 fumbled by #5 S.Bangura at BUF21 forced by #12 M.White recovered by BUF #3 O.Bridges at BUF03, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
22.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BUF07 (#7 T.Pearson)Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+7
22.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BUF14 (#5 A.Williams Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 2:2122% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
22.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BUF19 (#22 J.Thomeson)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+6
22.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BUF25 (#27 J.Fries), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
22.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete deep right to #3 N.McMillan caught at OHI29, for 46 yards to the OHI29, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
25.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OHI24 (#57 N.Hale)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
25.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OHI23 (#97 A.Mitchell)Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+23
32.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush right for 23 yards gain to the OHI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:39, 1ST DOWN #2 T.Roberson pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:0974% → 86%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
26.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush left for 20 yards gain to the BUF41 (#7 S.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
25.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete deep right to #7 C.Hendricks thrown to BUF00 broken up by #9 K.BradleySimilar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
25.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BUF37 (#41 R.Murdock)Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+2
26.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BUF35 (#18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+10
27.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short left to #7 C.Hendricks caught at BUF29, for 10 yards to the BUF25 (#8 J.McNair), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
25.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush left for 13 yards gain to the BUF12 (#14 M.Crawford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
25.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush right for 6 yards gain to the BUF06 (#7 S.Brown; #39 M.Gonser)Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
25.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short left to #11 R.Harris II thrown to BUF04Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
13.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:25, 1ST DOWN #39 D.Dellenbach kick attempt good (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #46 N.Hemer)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5718% → 16%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
17.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush right for 2 yards loss to the BUF23 (#2 D.Walker)Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
17.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short right thrown to BUF35Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
17.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete deep left to #6 C.Morrow thrown to OHI30Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
16.4%
#42 D.Drennan punt 48 yards to the OHI29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18MISSED FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 6:0986% → 88%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
14.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush left for 7 yards gain to the OHI36 (#41 R.Murdock)Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+4
14.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush right for 4 yards gain to the OHI40 (#18 D.Crawford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
13.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete deep left to #7 C.Hendricks thrown to BUF30 PENALTY BUF Pass Interference (#15 S.Brown) 15 yards from OHI40 to BUF45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
13.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short left thrown to BUF34 QB hurried by #39 M.GonserSimilar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
13.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BUF37 (#12 M.White)Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+5
13.4%
PENALTY OHI False Start (#59 N.Marinaro) 5 yards from BUF37 to BUF42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+11
13.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush middle for 11 yards gain to the BUF31 (#41 R.Murdock; #6 M.Greer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
13.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 11 yards gain to the BUF20 (#7 S.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
13.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete deep right to #88 C.Gossett thrown to BUF00 PENALTY OHI Holding (#51 D.Weatherspoon) 10 yards from BUF20 to BUF30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+4
13.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BUF26 (#12 M.White; #97 J.Poyser)Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 16
OPP 26
+1
13.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BUF25 (#18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+8
13.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush left for 8 yards gain to the BUF17 (#39 M.Gonser)Similar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
11.8%
#39 D.Dellenbach field goal attempt from 35 yards NO GOOD (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #46 N.Hemer), clock 01:19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:1214% → 29%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+58
14.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete deep left to #0 V.Snow caught at OHI47, for 58 yards to the OHI22, out of bounds at OHI22, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
17.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OHI16 (#30 C.Christopher)Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
17.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OHI13 (#12 J.Crable)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+3
16.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OHI10 (#30 C.Christopher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
16.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #0 V.Snow caught at OHI05, for 5 yards to the OHI05 (#22 J.Thomeson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
28.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson rush right for 5 yards gain to the OHI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:07, 1ST DOWN #2 T.Roberson pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 5:3578% → 85%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush left for 4 yards gain to the OHI29 (#39 M.Gonser; #41 R.Murdock)Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
22.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short right to #7 C.Hendricks caught at OHI45, for 16 yards to the OHI45 (#6 M.Greer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
20.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OHI48 (#39 M.Gonser)Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+8
20.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short left to #11 R.Harris II caught at BUF44, for 8 yards to the BUF44, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
19.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete deep right to #88 C.Gossett thrown to BUF24Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
19.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush right for 5 yards gain to the BUF39 (#41 R.Murdock)Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+5
20.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush right for 5 yards gain to the BUF34 (#41 R.Murdock), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-8
19.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro sacked for loss of 8 yards to the BUF42 (#18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 18
OPP 42
0
20.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short right thrown to BUF31 QB hurried by #0 K.Stewart. The previous play is under automatic review - "Targeting". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 18
OPP 42
+3
21.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush left for 3 yards gain to the BUF39 (#6 M.Greer)Similar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
15.2%
#42 M.Haines punt 38 yards to the BUF01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:1617% → 16%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
17.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush right for 0 yards to the BUF01 (#24 C.Hollobaugh)Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
16.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short left to #0 V.Snow thrown to BUF03Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+11
15.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #25 T.Shelton, Jr. caught at BUF06, for 11 yards to the BUF12 (#24 C.Hollobaugh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-19
15.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass intercepted by #20 K.Bannister at BUF36 #20 K.Bannister return 19 yards to the BUF17, out of bounds at BUF17 PENALTY OHI UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#98 D.Reagans lll) 15 yards from BUF17 to BUF32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22FG
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:4689% → 94%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
11.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BUF31 (#15 S.Brown)Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
11.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short right to #86 J.Bruno thrown to BUF30Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+10
12.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush middle for 10 yards gain to the BUF21 (#7 S.Brown), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Forward pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
11.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BUF18 (#18 D.Crawford; #90 G.Wolo)Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+3
10.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush right for 3 yards gain to the BUF15 (#18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 4
OPP 15
0
9.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short right to #7 C.Hendricks thrown to BUF05Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
6.2%
#39 D.Dellenbach field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #46 N.Hemer), clock 05:24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:377% → 29%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
7.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BUF41 (#0 M.Williams)Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+6
7.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short left to #25 T.Shelton, Jr. caught at BUF45, for 6 yards to the BUF47 (#22 J.Thomeson; #24 C.Hollobaugh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+29
7.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short left to #3 N.McMillan caught at OHI41, for 29 yards to the OHI24 (#0 M.Williams), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
10.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson sacked for loss of 5 yards to the OHI29 (#15 A.Luqman)Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+29
29.1%
Jasaiah Gathings 29 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24PUNT
12 plays · 21 yds · 3:2784% → 97%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OHI28 (#12 M.White)Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
15.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OHI32 (#99 C.Evans; #18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
13.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 8 yards gain to the OHI40 (#41 R.Murdock; #99 C.Evans), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
11.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OHI44 (#9 K.Bradley; #97 J.Poyser)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
7.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OHI46 (#15 S.Brown; #39 M.Gonser)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+2
8.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OHI48 (#3 O.Bridges; #18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+5
3.5%
#42 M.Haines punt 45 yards to the BUF07 #0 V.Snow return 5 yards to the BUF12 (#29 J.Haskins; #2 D.Walker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
10.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short middle to #0 V.Snow caught at BUF29, for 17 yards to the BUF29 (#7 T.Pearson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
10.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
10.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Gathings thrown to BUF45Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
9.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short middle to #8 J.Gathings thrown to BUF47Similar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+20
9.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short to #3 N.McMillan caught at BUF45, for 20 yards to the BUF49 (#29 J.Haskins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:47
Jasaiah Gathings 29 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)
+18.7
TD · Q4 14:07
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson rush right for 5 yards gain to the OHI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:07, 1ST DOWN #2 T.Roberson pass attempt failed
+12
TD · Q3 8:25
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:25, 1ST DOWN #39 D.Dellenbach kick attempt good (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #46 N.Hemer)
-11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com