Try the model
CMU

Central Michigan 28 at Kent State 16

KENT
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 19, 2025 · Dix Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:24: (10:26) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:24 #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt) — CMU win probability +6.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:38: (10:56) #18 D.Duley punt 41 yards to the KSU41 #6 W.Harris return 59 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:38 #12 D.DeShields pass attempt failed — KENT win probability +15.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:38: PENALTY CMU False Start (#73 D.Smith) 5 yards from CMU25 to CMU20. NO PLAY — CMU win probability +6.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:41: (04:44) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 10 yards gain to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:41, 1ST DOWN #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt) — CMU win probability +11.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:28: (01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields rush middle for 10 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:28, 1ST DOWN #47 W.Hryszko kick attempt good (H: #61 C.Durkin, LS: #41 G.Goodell) — KENT win probability +4.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:30KENT 4th & 14 at KENT 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:28CMU 4th & 1 at KENT 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:17CMU 4th & 2 at KENT 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    64.4%−0.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:37CMU 4th & 1 at KENT 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:37CMU 4th & 2 at KENT 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−0.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:54KENT 4th & 17 at CMU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:53KENT 4th & 10 at CMU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:13CMU 4th & 3 at KENT 45, up 11
    Close callPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    75.8%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:40CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 43, up 11
    Close callPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:18KENT 4th & 11 at CMU 34, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:36CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:07KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−2.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:05CMU 4th & 4 at KENT 42, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−1.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:50KENT 4th & 13 at CMU 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−4.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:38CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:59KENT 4th & 7 at KENT 34, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:53KENT 4th & 10 at CMU 49, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 0 of 2CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 2:37CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:24CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:38KENT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:41CMU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:02CMU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:28KENT Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KENTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:2432% → 33%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
32.0%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Wolford rush left for 17 yards gain to the KSU43 (#1 D.Cochran), out of bounds PENALTY KSU Holding (#11 C.Berry) 10 yards from KSU26 to KSU16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+21
32.2%
(14:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #1 D.Martin caught at KSU28, for 21 yards to the KSU37 (#4 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
32.4%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields rush right for 4 yards loss to the KSU33 (#1 D.Cochran), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
32.6%
(13:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short left to #21 C.Wolford thrown to KSU42Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
32.5%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete deep right to #89 T.Mulder thrown to CMU39Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
32.5%
(13:36) #61 C.Durkin punt 42 yards to the CMU25 fair catch by #15 C.Spann at CMU25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 10:4467% → 68%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.7%
(13:29) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CMU30 (#0 M.Woods)Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+21
32.9%
(12:48) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 21 yards gain to the KSU49 (#31 D.Jackson III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
32.9%
PENALTY CMU False Start (#58 A.Poumele) 5 yards from KSU49 to CMU46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 15
OWN 46
-1
33.2%
(12:01) Shotgun #2 J.Labas rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CMU45 (#3 C.Young; #0 M.Woods)Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 16
OWN 45
0
33.5%
(11:22) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short right to #19 T.McIntosh thrown to KSU47 broken up by #18 T.MillerSimilar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+15
33.7%
(11:17) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #20 L.Lewis caught at KSU41, for 15 yards to the KSU40 (#4 J.Mathis)Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+5
33.7%
(10:33) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 5 yards gain to the KSU35 (#3 C.Young; #31 D.Jackson III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
33.7%
(09:51) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #8 D.Temple caught at KSU31, for 6 yards to the KSU29 (#10 C.Williams)Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+6
33.8%
(09:11) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 6 yards gain to the KSU23 (#18 T.Miller; #94 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
33.9%
(08:30) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSU20 (#4 J.Mathis)Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+2
34.0%
(07:48) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon pass complete short right to #5 N.Biggins caught at KSU21, for 2 yards to the KSU18 (#0 M.Woods; #18 T.Miller)Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+3
34.4%
(07:04) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSU15 (#94 A.Williams)Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+2
35.1%
(06:25) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU13 (#0 M.Woods; #3 C.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
34.6%
(05:38) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 4 yards gain to the KSU09 (#17 M.Carroll; #55 J.Cordoba)Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+6
34.8%
(04:56) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #88 H.Dryden caught at KSU06, for 6 yards to the KSU03 (#22 J.Rawlison), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
35.0%
(04:14) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSU02 (#10 C.Williams; #3 C.Young)Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
35.1%
(03:33) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short right to #88 H.Dryden thrown to KSU02 QB hurried by #94 A.Williams and #44 A.BottiggiSimilar
Q1 3:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
35.6%
(03:28) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSU01 (#22 J.Rawlison; #0 M.Woods)Similar
Q1 2:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.9%
(02:39) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #19 T.McIntosh caught at KSU00, for 1 yard to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:37 #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3FUMBLE
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:2533% → 33%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
32.8%
(02:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 4 yards gain to the KSU39 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski; #56 K.Demma)Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
33.5%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 7 yards gain to the KSU46 (#15 C.Spann), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
33.6%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields sacked for loss of 6 yards to the KSU40 (#97 M.Heldman)Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+6
32.8%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 D.Clark rush left for 6 yards gain to the KSU46 (#15 C.Spann)Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-12
32.8%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields sacked for loss of 12 yards to the KSU34 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski), fumble by #12 D.DeShields recovered by CMU #40 L.Brown at KSU34, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 34 yds · 4:2469% → 76%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
30.9%
(14:54) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU32 (#10 C.Williams)Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
30.8%
(14:10) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 0 yards to the KSU32 (#0 M.Woods)Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+6
31.2%
(13:27) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #3 T.Davis caught at KSU34, for 6 yards to the KSU26 (#0 M.Woods)Similar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+15
31.7%
(12:40) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 15 yards gain to the KSU11 (#13 T.Tucker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
30.6%
(12:02) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU09 (#6 M.Maddox; #55 J.Cordoba)Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+8
30.6%
(11:24) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush right for 8 yards gain to the KSU01 (#31 D.Jackson III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
30.6%
(11:04) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 1 yard loss to the KSU02 (#6 M.Maddox; #0 M.Woods)Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
24.1%
(10:26) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:24 #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:2226% → 24%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
25.8%
(10:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short right to #27 J.Nubin thrown to KSU26 QB hurried by #2 E.RikardSimilar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-2
25.5%
(10:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush left for 2 yards loss to the KSU24 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+16
24.8%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #21 C.Wolford caught at KSU21, for 16 yards to the KSU40 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
26.0%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSU43 (#98 J.Decker; #85 J.Douglas)Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+19
26.2%
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short left to #6 W.Harris caught at CMU38, for 19 yards to the CMU38 (#4 J.Jackson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
25.9%
(08:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short left to #6 W.Harris thrown to CMU26Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
25.1%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short middle to #89 T.Mulder caught at CMU36, for 3 yards to the CMU35, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+10
24.9%
(07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields rush left for 10 yards gain to the CMU25 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski) PENALTY KSU Holding (#68 J.Diallo) 10 yards from CMU35 to CMU45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 17
OPP 45
0
24.0%
(07:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete deep right to #21 C.Wolford thrown to CMU21 broken up by #1 D.CochranSimilar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 17
OPP 45
0
23.8%
(06:59) #61 C.Durkin punt 45 yards to the CMU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:3177% → 78%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
23.4%
(06:51) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU21 (#33 J.Roy)Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
23.3%
(06:14) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush left for 1 yard gain to the CMU22 (#15 S.Abuhamdeh)Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+14
23.5%
(05:35) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #20 L.Lewis caught at CMU31, for 14 yards to the CMU36 (#19 D.Barnes), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
22.3%
(04:59) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU38 (#15 S.Abuhamdeh; #10 C.Williams)Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
21.6%
(04:22) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass intercepted by #18 T.Miller at KSU28, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:1523% → 26%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
22.5%
(04:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSU29 (#95 J.VanWetzinga; #49 K.Hayden)Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+21
22.3%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 21 yards gain to the KSU50 (#6 K.Carroll; #15 C.Spann), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
50
+6
23.8%
(03:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CMU44 (#15 C.Spann; #12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
23.4%
(02:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #89 T.Mulder caught at CMU46, for 2 yards to the CMU42 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+9
22.9%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush right for 9 yards gain to the CMU33 (#94 D.Fisher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
23.6%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CMU34 (#97 M.Heldman; #12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+9
23.4%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CMU25 fumbled by #12 D.DeShields at CMU33 forced by #1 D.Cochran recovered by KSU #13 A.Banks at CMU25 (#10 E.Gordon; #12 J.Kwiatkowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
23.4%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush middle for 0 yards to the CMU20 (#97 M.Heldman)Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
23.4%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete deep right to #13 A.Banks thrown to CMU00 QB hurried by #4 J.JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
22.6%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete deep left to #6 W.Harris thrown to CMU00Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+36
26.0%
(00:56) #47 W.Hryszko field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #61 C.Durkin, LS: #41 G.Goodell), clock 00:53Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:2676% → 76%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
24.5%
(00:46) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #19 T.McIntosh caught at CMU33, for 7 yards to the CMU33 (#19 D.Barnes), out of bounds PENALTY KSU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#22 J.Rawlison) 15 yards from CMU33 to CMU48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
23.4%
(00:37) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short right to #19 T.McIntosh thrown to KSU41Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
23.2%
(00:33) Shotgun #2 J.Labas rush middle for 7 yards gain to the KSU45, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
22.7%
(00:26) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete deep middle to #19 T.McIntosh thrown to KSU09Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
23.8%
(00:18) #18 D.Duley punt 44 yards to the KSU01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
25.4%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU03 (#1 D.Cochran)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1474% → 75%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
25.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 11 yards gain to the CMU36 (#10 C.Williams), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
25.0%
(14:23) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU38 (#3 C.Young; #11 A.Campbell)Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
24.2%
(13:38) Shotgun #2 J.Labas rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CMU43 (#18 T.Miller; #58 D.Blachewicz)Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
24.4%
(12:49) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short right to #3 T.Davis thrown to CMU40Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+5
25.0%
(12:47) #18 D.Duley punt 39 yards to the KSU18 #6 W.Harris return 5 yards to the KSU23 (#30 B.Pratt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 5:1525% → 22%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
24.9%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 5 yards gain to the KSU28 (#98 J.Decker; #12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
25.2%
(11:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Wolford rush left for 4 yards gain to the KSU32 (#97 M.Heldman; #2 E.Rikard)Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+2
24.7%
(11:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU34 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski; #17 M.Blackwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
23.7%
(10:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short middle to #89 T.Mulder caught at KSU49, for 22 yards to the CMU44 (#17 M.Blackwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
25.4%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU40 (#4 J.Jackson)Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+7
25.4%
(09:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush right for 7 yards gain to the CMU33 (#17 M.Blackwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
26.5%
(08:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU30 (#17 M.Blackwell; #3 B.Deasfernandes)Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
26.4%
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short right to #30 D.Clark thrown to CMU35 QB hurried by #49 K.HaydenSimilar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-4
24.8%
(08:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush left for 4 yards loss to the CMU34 (#56 K.Demma)Similar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 11
OPP 34
-3
22.2%
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields sacked for loss of 3 yards to the CMU37 (#97 M.Heldman), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3679% → 78%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
21.5%
(07:17) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CMU42 (#31 D.Jackson III)Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
20.6%
(06:53) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon pass incomplete short left to #20 L.Lewis thrown to CMU35Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
20.8%
(06:46) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short left to #88 H.Dryden thrown to CMU46Similar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
22.2%
(06:42) #18 D.Duley punt 41 yards to the KSU17 fair catch by #6 W.Harris at KSU17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2522% → 20%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
22.3%
(06:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short middle to #6 W.Harris thrown to KSU27Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-3
22.0%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 D.Clark rush left for 3 yards loss to the KSU14 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 13
OWN 14
-3
20.8%
(05:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #5 G.Garcia caught at KSU09, for 3 yards loss to the KSU11 (#1 D.Cochran; #40 L.Brown)Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 16
OWN 11
0
20.2%
(05:11) #61 C.Durkin punt 42 yards to the CMU47 fair catch by #15 C.Spann at CMU47 PENALTY KSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from CMU47 to KSU48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0280% → 79%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
19.8%
PENALTY CMU False Start (#88 H.Dryden) 5 yards from KSU48 to CMU47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+11
19.9%
(05:05) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 11 yards gain to the KSU42 (#10 C.Williams)Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+2
19.2%
(04:32) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU40 (#44 A.Bottiggi; #21 J.Cordoba)Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-2
19.4%
(03:51) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 2 yards loss to the KSU42 (#11 A.Campbell; #17 M.Carroll)Similar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
20.8%
(03:09) #18 D.Duley punt 40 yards to the KSU02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15MISSED FG
14 plays · 79 yds · 6:0620% → 16%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
20.0%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the KSU07 (#17 M.Blackwell)Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+4
19.8%
(02:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the KSU11 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski; #95 J.VanWetzinga)Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+2
18.5%
(01:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU13 (#40 L.Brown; #12 J.Kwiatkowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+22
19.1%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete deep right to #6 W.Harris caught at KSU35, for 22 yards to the KSU35, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
19.7%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU37 (#49 K.Hayden)Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+8
19.4%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #1 D.Martin caught at KSU45, for 8 yards to the KSU45 (#6 K.Carroll), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
19.7%
(14:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete deep left to #1 D.Martin caught at CMU32, for 23 yards to the CMU32, out of bounds at CMU32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
22.4%
(14:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU28 (#56 K.Demma; #2 E.Rikard)Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+12
22.5%
(13:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 12 yards gain to the CMU16 (#2 E.Rikard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-7
22.1%
(12:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 7 yards loss to the CMU23 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 17
OPP 23
0
19.6%
(12:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete deep right to #85 S.Brown thrown to CMU02 QB hurried by #4 J.JacksonSimilar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 17
OPP 23
+4
18.0%
(12:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU19 (#85 J.Douglas)Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+36
16.2%
(11:53) #47 W.Hryszko field goal attempt from 36 yards NO GOOD (H: #61 C.Durkin, LS: #41 G.Goodell), clock 11:50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT TD
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1284% → 69%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
15.8%
PENALTY CMU False Start (#76 M.Koivisto) 5 yards from CMU20 to CMU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+3
15.9%
(11:49) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU18 (#21 J.Cordoba; #8 N.Brown)Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
14.3%
(11:09) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short middle to #20 L.Lewis thrown to CMU34Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
14.7%
(11:05) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short left to #19 T.McIntosh thrown to CMU25 QB hurried by #8 N.BrownSimilar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+59
30.6%
(10:56) #18 D.Duley punt 41 yards to the KSU41 #6 W.Harris return 59 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:38 #12 D.DeShields pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:5773% → 94%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.3%
PENALTY CMU False Start (#73 D.Smith) 5 yards from CMU25 to CMU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
27.0%
(10:37) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #8 D.Temple caught at CMU25, for 9 yards to the CMU29 (#0 M.Woods; #3 C.Young)Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
26.0%
(09:56) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU33 (#10 C.Williams; #44 A.Bottiggi)Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
25.5%
(09:18) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 10 yards gain to the CMU43 (#3 C.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
23.4%
(08:41) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush left for 2 yards loss to the CMU41 (#4 J.Mathis; #21 J.Cordoba), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+23
24.4%
(08:02) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #88 H.Dryden caught at CMU49, for 23 yards to the KSU36 (#21 J.Cordoba), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
19.8%
(07:23) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSU35 (#58 D.Blachewicz)Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+1
18.5%
(06:43) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSU34 (#58 D.Blachewicz; #22 J.Rawlison)Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+15
19.7%
(05:57) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #3 T.Davis caught at KSU19, for 15 yards to the KSU19, out of bounds at KSU19, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
17.2%
(05:28) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 9 yards gain to the KSU10 (#22 J.Rawlison; #0 M.Woods)Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+10
6.1%
(04:44) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 10 yards gain to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:41, 1ST DOWN #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:248% → 7%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
8.4%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #89 T.Mulder caught at KSU33, for 3 yards to the KSU34 (#4 J.Jackson)Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
8.5%
(04:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short left to #6 W.Harris thrown to KSU41 QB hurried by #97 M.HeldmanSimilar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
7.5%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short left to #89 T.Mulder thrown to KSU43 QB hurried by #40 L.Brown and #85 J.DouglasSimilar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 7
OWN 34
-10
7.1%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields sacked for loss of 10 yards to the KSU24 (#85 J.Douglas), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:5095% → 99%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
5.4%
(03:57) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 4 yards gain to the KSU20 (#21 J.Cordoba)Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+1
4.2%
(03:13) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSU19 (#0 M.Woods; #17 M.Carroll)Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+19
1.0%
(03:07) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #8 D.Temple caught at KSU00, for 19 yards to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:02, 1ST DOWN #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 1:212% → 7%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
2.2%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short left to #85 S.Brown caught at KSU41, for 19 yards to the CMU49 (#1 D.Cochran), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
2.3%
(02:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short middle to #6 W.Harris thrown to CMU31Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
2.3%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields rush right for 0 yards to the CMU49 (#40 L.Brown), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
2.2%
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short left to #6 W.Harris thrown to CMU39 broken up by #4 J.JacksonSimilar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 10
OPP 49
+15
1.9%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short left to #85 S.Brown caught at CMU41, for 15 yards to the CMU34 (#4 J.Jackson; #8 A.Snell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
2.3%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #6 W.Harris caught at CMU19, for 15 yards to the CMU19, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
2.4%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short right to #6 W.Harris thrown to CMU09 PENALTY CMU Holding (#3 B.Deasfernandes) 9 yards from CMU19 to CMU10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
6.9%
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields rush middle for 10 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:28, 1ST DOWN #47 W.Hryszko kick attempt good (H: #61 C.Durkin, LS: #41 G.Goodell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21END OF GAME
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:4897% → 98%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
2.8%
(01:25) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 7 yards gain to the KSU37 (#11 A.Campbell)Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
2.7%
(01:21) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU35 (#13 T.Tucker)Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
2.6%
(01:15) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSU32 (#8 N.Brown; #55 J.Cordoba), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
2.5%
(00:32) Kneel down by #10 M.Beamon at KSU34 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:38
(10:56) #18 D.Duley punt 41 yards to the KSU41 #6 W.Harris return 59 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:38 #12 D.DeShields pass attempt failed
+15.9
TD · Q4 4:41
(04:44) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 10 yards gain to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:41, 1ST DOWN #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt)
-11.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:38
PENALTY CMU False Start (#73 D.Smith) 5 yards from CMU25 to CMU20. NO PLAY
-6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com