Try the model
WMU

Western Michigan 35 at Northern Illinois 19

NIU
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 18, 2025 · Huskie Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:11 · (06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Davidson rush left for 11 yards gain to the NIU41 (#18 M.Davis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Home team on offense−45.3Pregame prior−1.8Score differential−24.4Garbage-time factor−16.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 11:45: (11:48) #60 A.Glass field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #44 R.Pedro), clock 11:45 — NIU win probability +6.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:13: (06:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 18 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:13, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd) — WMU win probability +11.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 0:40: (00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:40, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd) — WMU win probability +20.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:11: (08:14) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 8 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:11 #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd) — WMU win probability +15.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:46: (09:46) #6 J.Buckley rush left for 1 yard gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:46 #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd) — WMU win probability +10.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11WMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 12:42NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:13NIU 4th & 12 at WMU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:05WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:02NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:28WMU 4th & 3 at NIU 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−0.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:45NIU 4th & 8 at WMU 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−6.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:52WMU 4th & 8 at NIU 43, down 13
    Close callPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    41.0%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:54NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 13, up 13
    Close callPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:26NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 39, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.5%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:49NIU 4th & 11 at NIU 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:42WMU 4th & 2 at WMU 33, up 8
    Close callPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:19NIU 4th & 11 at NIU 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−3.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:58NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 27, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:11NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 30, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:51NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 47, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:21NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:13WMU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:40WMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:11WMU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:46WMU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:19WMU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:25NIU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.7%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3034% → 36%
Q1 13:51
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
33.6%
(13:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush left for 4 yards gain to the NIU45 (#20 K.Fisher)Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
33.8%
(13:26) No Huddle #10 C.Wright rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NIU46 (#11 N.Tucker)Similar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+8
34.0%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush left for 8 yards gain to the WMU46 (#4 R.McGraw), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
34.5%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon pass incomplete short right thrown to WMU35Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
34.5%
(12:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 3 yards gain to the WMU43 (#3 T.Hallock; #10 S.Saipaia)Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+43
36.0%
(11:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 43 yards gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:21, 1ST DOWN #60 A.Glass kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #44 R.Pedro)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
35.9%
(11:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass intercepted by #22 J.Beeler at WMU19 broken up by #3 J.Finley, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4637% → 38%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
36.6%
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 4 yards loss to the WMU23 (#11 N.Tucker)Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 14
OPP 23
0
36.8%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 0 yards to the WMU23 (#9 J.Camden)Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 14
OPP 23
+2
37.2%
(09:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon rush left for 2 yards gain to the WMU21 (#3 T.Hallock; #9 J.Camden), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+39
37.6%
(09:19) #60 A.Glass field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #44 R.Pedro), clock 09:13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5663% → 61%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
37.2%
(09:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 14 yards gain to the WMU40 (#32 Q.Urwiler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
37.3%
(08:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 0 yards to the WMU40 (#16 J.Thomas)Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
37.9%
(07:59) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 4 yards gain to the WMU44 (#32 Q.Urwiler; #16 J.Thomas)Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
38.4%
(07:19) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #0 T.Williams thrown to WMU47 broken up by #7 D.HarrisonSimilar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
38.9%
(07:15) #25 R.Millmore punt 47 yards to the NIU09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5439% → 41%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
39.3%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 1 yard gain to the NIU10 (#9 J.Camden)Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 9
OWN 10
-1
39.8%
(06:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NIU09 (#47 D.Moon)Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+5
40.3%
(05:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 5 yards gain to the NIU14 (#3 T.Hallock; #9 J.Camden)Similar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
40.8%
(05:12) #36 J.Ference punt 61 yards to the WMU25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 50 yds · 4:2759% → 56%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
40.8%
(05:02) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 10 yards gain to the WMU35 (#22 J.Beeler; #4 M.Jammeh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
40.5%
(04:30) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU38 (#17 F.Maciorowski)Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
40.7%
(03:55) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 6 yards gain to the WMU44 (#32 Q.Urwiler)Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+22
41.7%
(03:11) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 22 yards gain to the NIU34 (#33 T.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
41.3%
(02:33) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NIU33 (#95 L.Ingold)Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+4
41.7%
(01:53) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush left for 4 yards gain to the NIU29 (#32 Q.Urwiler; #6 D.Dixon)Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+2
42.5%
(01:16) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NIU27 (#95 L.Ingold)Similar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+2
44.0%
(00:32) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #0 T.Williams caught at NIU25, for 2 yards to the NIU25 (#32 Q.Urwiler), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:4144% → 55%
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
44.4%
(00:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon rush left for 1 yard loss to the NIU24 (#12 D.Moore)Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+18
44.7%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon rush middle for 18 yards gain to the NIU42 (#8 J.Sims), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
46.2%
(14:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the NIU43 (#0 M.Al-Garawi)Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+5
46.6%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon pass complete short left to #6 D.Rogers caught at NIU42, for 5 yards to the NIU48 (#6 J.Pope), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+15
46.6%
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 15 yards gain to the WMU37 (#10 S.Saipaia; #5 A.Wofford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
48.1%
(12:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush left for 12 yards gain to the WMU25 (#6 J.Pope), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
48.4%
(12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon pass incomplete deep left to #0 L.Bryant thrown to WMU02Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
48.4%
(12:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon rush right for 2 yards gain to the WMU23 (#10 S.Saipaia), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
48.3%
(11:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon pass incomplete deep left to #6 D.Rogers thrown to WMU00Similar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
54.8%
(11:48) #60 A.Glass field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #44 R.Pedro), clock 11:45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:3948% → 45%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
52.2%
(11:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short middle to #1 C.Leary caught at WMU32, for 10 yards to the WMU44 (#32 Q.Urwiler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
52.5%
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #18 A.Chenault caught at WMU50, for 11 yards to the NIU45 (#33 T.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
52.0%
(10:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 4 yards loss to the NIU49 (#17 F.Maciorowski; #95 L.Ingold)Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+6
54.7%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Williams rush right for 6 yards gain to the NIU43 (#26 J.Finley IV)Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
54.2%
(09:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short left to #82 B.Brooks thrown to NIU40 broken up by #32 Q.UrwilerSimilar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
55.3%
(09:02) #25 R.Millmore punt 37 yards to the NIU06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5061% → 64%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
61.0%
(08:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush left for 2 yards gain to the NIU08 (#20 K.Fisher)Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+2
61.7%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon rush left for 2 yards gain to the NIU10 (#6 J.Pope)Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+3
63.4%
(07:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NIU13 (#9 J.Camden; #11 N.Tucker)Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
63.5%
(07:00) #36 J.Ference punt 42 yards to the WMU45 fair catch by #86 B.Bosma at WMU45 PENALTY NIU Illegal Formation 5 yards from WMU45 to WMU50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10TD
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:3241% → 52%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
50
+32
58.8%
(06:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush right for 32 yards gain to the NIU18 (#4 M.Jammeh), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
47.9%
(06:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 18 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:13, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:3754% → 56%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
54.2%
(06:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush left for 3 yards gain to the NIU22 (#9 J.Camden)Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+8
54.4%
(05:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon rush right for 8 yards gain to the NIU30 (#9 J.Camden; #14 M.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
55.4%
(04:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 1 yard gain to the NIU31 (#11 N.Tucker)Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
55.6%
(04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon pass complete short left to #45 T.Johnson Jr. caught at NIU30, for 1 yard loss to the NIU30 (#3 T.Hallock) PENALTY WMU Offside 5 yards from NIU31 to NIU36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
57.5%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 2 yards gain to the NIU38 (#11 N.Tucker)Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
57.6%
(03:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the NIU39 (#4 R.McGraw)Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
55.8%
(02:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 0 yards to the NIU39 (#9 J.Camden), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 39 yds · 1:4045% → 65%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
54.9%
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush left for 7 yards gain to the NIU32 (#0 A.Gulley, Jr)Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+7
52.9%
(02:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush left for 7 yards gain to the NIU25 (#7 D.Harrison), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
52.6%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU21 (#95 L.Ingold; #0 A.Gulley, Jr)Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+4
52.8%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU17 (#10 M.Hensley)Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
56.2%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 3 yards gain to the NIU14 (#32 Q.Urwiler; #6 D.Dixon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
55.5%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NIU08 (#17 F.Maciorowski)Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
34.8%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:40, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13END OF HALF
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:2941% → 45%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
40.9%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 E.Porter rush right for 4 yards gain to the NIU22 (#9 J.Camden; #20 K.Fisher) PENALTY WMU Offside 5 yards from NIU18 to NIU23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 5
OWN 23
+15
41.1%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 E.Porter rush middle for 15 yards gain to the NIU38 (#0 M.Al-Garawi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
42.1%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon pass incomplete short right to #7 G.Givens III thrown to NIU47Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
42.6%
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon rush left for 5 yards gain to the NIU43 (#11 N.Tucker)Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+2
45.0%
(00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 E.Porter rush right for 2 yards gain to the NIU45 (#9 J.Camden; #18 M.Davis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 6:3660% → 77%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
40.3%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 12 yards gain to the WMU23 (#3 J.Finley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
40.2%
(14:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short middle to #0 T.Williams caught at WMU20, for 2 yards to the WMU25 (#33 T.Powell)Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+12
40.4%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 12 yards gain to the WMU37 (#22 J.Beeler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
39.6%
(13:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush right for 2 yards gain to the WMU39 (#16 J.Thomas)Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
38.7%
(12:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush left for 6 yards gain to the WMU45 (#22 J.Beeler; #17 F.Maciorowski)Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+8
39.2%
(11:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 8 yards gain to the NIU47 (#17 F.Maciorowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
38.4%
(11:06) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 11 yards gain to the NIU36 (#33 T.Powell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
38.5%
(10:37) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 16 yards gain to the NIU20 (#33 T.Powell; #22 J.Beeler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
37.3%
(09:58) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 5 yards gain to the NIU15 (#32 Q.Urwiler)Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
37.3%
(09:23) Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU11 (#33 T.Powell)Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+3
38.8%
(08:37) Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush left for 3 yards gain to the NIU08 (#22 J.Beeler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
22.9%
(08:14) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 8 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:11 #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1428% → 26%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
28.2%
(08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush left for 6 yards gain to the NIU31 (#9 J.Camden)Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
29.6%
(07:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon pass incomplete deep right to #3 R.Taylor Jr. thrown to WMU35Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-4
27.8%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon sacked for loss of 7 yards to the NIU24 (#11 N.Tucker, #9 J.Camden)Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
26.2%
(06:54) #36 J.Ference punt 51 yards to the WMU25 fair catch by #86 B.Bosma at WMU25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0075% → 75%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.3%
(06:49) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 1 yard gain to the WMU26 (#32 Q.Urwiler)Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
25.4%
(06:12) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 0 yards to the WMU26 (#22 J.Beeler), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
26.3%
(05:31) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #1 C.Leary caught at WMU32, for 7 yards to the WMU33 (#3 J.Finley), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
25.0%
(04:51) #25 R.Millmore punt 49 yards to the NIU18 #6 D.Rogers return 4 yards to the NIU22 (#1 J.Franklin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:1526% → 23%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
25.5%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 7 yards gain to the NIU29 (#9 J.Camden)Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+4
27.0%
(04:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU33 (#8 J.Sims; #4 R.McGraw), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
26.0%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon pass incomplete deep right to #45 T.Johnson Jr. thrown to WMU45Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-3
25.9%
(03:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 3 yards loss to the NIU30 (#6 J.Pope)Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+2
23.6%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon rush left for 2 yards gain to the NIU32 (#10 S.Saipaia; #4 R.McGraw)Similar
Q3 2:19
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
23.3%
(02:25) #36 J.Ference punt 44 yards to the WMU24 fair catch by #86 B.Bosma at WMU24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18TD
18 plays · 76 yds · 7:2578% → 96%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
22.5%
(02:19) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WMU30 (#22 J.Beeler)Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
21.1%
(01:41) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 3 yards gain to the WMU33 (#9 D.Reynolds)Similar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
21.1%
(01:03) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 3 yards gain to the WMU36 (#33 T.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
20.2%
(00:27) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete deep middle to #82 B.Brooks thrown to NIU20 broken up by #3 J.FinleySimilar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+13
20.6%
(00:16) Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush right for 13 yards gain to the WMU49 (#22 J.Beeler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
19.1%
(14:57) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 6 yards gain to the NIU45 (#3 J.Finley), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
17.9%
(14:30) Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NIU39 (#3 J.Finley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
16.9%
(13:50) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 4 yards gain to the NIU35 (#22 J.Beeler)Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+6
14.7%
(13:11) Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NIU29 (#33 T.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
13.8%
(12:29) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 6 yards gain to the NIU23 (#22 J.Beeler; #10 M.Hensley)Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+10
13.6%
(11:51) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 10 yards gain to the NIU13 (#22 J.Beeler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
11.9%
(11:27) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 6 yards gain to the NIU07 (#95 L.Ingold; #32 Q.Urwiler)Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+6
12.0%
(10:50) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 6 yards gain to the NIU01 (#22 J.Beeler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.5%
(10:26) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 0 yards to the NIU01 (#10 M.Hensley)Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.3%
(09:46) #6 J.Buckley rush left for 1 yard gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:46 #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · -20 yds · 1:4110% → 7%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.8%
(09:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU29 (#3 T.Hallock; #96 D.Gustwiller)Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
8.4%
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass incomplete deep right to #7 G.Givens III thrown to WMU37 PENALTY NIU Pass Interference 14 yards from NIU29 to NIU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+16
8.0%
(09:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass complete short left to #6 D.Rogers caught at NIU16, for 16 yards to the NIU31 (#14 J.Peters)Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-4
8.2%
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Davidson sacked for loss of 4 yards to the NIU27 (#22 A.Louis)Similar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-22
7.4%
(08:04) No Huddle NIU rush middle for 22 yards loss to the NIU05 fumbled by NIU at NIU27 recovered by NIU #36 J.Ference at NIU05 (#42 W.Gerig), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:2996% → 98%
Q4 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
3.8%
(07:56) Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU01 (#16 J.Thomas)Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.8%
(07:23) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:19 #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:392% → 6%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
1.9%
(07:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass complete short right to #7 G.Givens III caught at NIU29, for 4 yards to the NIU29, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
1.8%
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 E.Porter rush right for 1 yard gain to the NIU30 (#4 R.McGraw)Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
1.7%
(06:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass incomplete short right to #7 G.Givens III thrown to NIU38 broken up by #6 J.PopeSimilar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+11
1.7%
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Davidson rush left for 11 yards gain to the NIU41 (#18 M.Davis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
1.7%
(05:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass incomplete short left to #24 E.Porter thrown to WMU40Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
1.7%
(05:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Davidson rush left for 6 yards gain to the NIU47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
1.6%
(05:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass incomplete deep left to #0 L.Bryant thrown to WMU33Similar
Q4 4:51
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+14
1.5%
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass complete short right to #3 R.Taylor Jr. caught at WMU43, for 14 yards to the WMU39 (#5 A.Wofford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
1.6%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass complete short left to #3 R.Taylor Jr. caught at WMU22, for 21 yards to the WMU18 (#1 J.Franklin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
5.9%
(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass complete short left to #3 R.Taylor Jr. caught at WMU00, for 18 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:25, 1ST DOWN #10 C.Wright pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22END OF GAME
15 plays · 35 yds · 3:4497% → 99%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
2.8%
(04:25) Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NIU39 (#32 Q.Urwiler)Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+2
4.3%
(04:14) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 2 yards gain to the NIU37 (#17 F.Maciorowski)Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+5
4.4%
(04:10) Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NIU32 (#3 J.Finley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
4.0%
(03:24) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NIU21 (#4 M.Jammeh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
3.8%
(02:38) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush left for 1 yard gain to the NIU20 (#16 J.Thomas; #22 J.Beeler)Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+4
3.3%
(02:32) Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush left for 4 yards gain to the NIU16 (#7 D.Harrison)Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+8
1.1%
(02:00) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NIU08 (#15 B.Windham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
1.2%
(01:17) Kneel down by #12 B.Lowry at NIU09 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
1.1%
(00:35) Kneel down by #12 B.Lowry at NIU10 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:40
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:40, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)
-20.7
TD · Q3 8:11
(08:14) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 8 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:11 #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)
-15.9
TD · Q2 6:13
(06:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 18 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:13, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com