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TOL

Toledo 24 at Miami (OH) 3

M-OH
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 12, 2025 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:21 · (12:25) #36 E.Duran punt 35 yards to the MIA15 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Home team on offense−1.2Pregame prior−17.8Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:59: (06:03) #1 C.Trayanum rush left for 3 yards gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:59 #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) — TOL win probability +12.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 3:07: #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete deep right to #11 R.Treadway thrown to TOL50 QB hurried by #1 E.Blakey — TOL win probability +5.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:18: No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short left to #89 J.Petersen caught at MIA00, for 6 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:18 #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) — TOL win probability +14.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:08: No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete deep right to #8 K.Perry thrown to TOL15 broken up by #4 A.Smith — M-OH win probability +5.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:31: (11:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete deep middle to #11 R.Treadway caught at MIA00, for 24 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:31, 1ST DOWN #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe) — TOL win probability +9.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 8 of 11TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:31M-OH 4th & 6 at TOL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    37.4%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:16M-OH 4th & 14 at M-OH 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:02M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:21TOL 4th & 11 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:20M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.9%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:51TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−2.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:18M-OH 4th & 18 at M-OH 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−3.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:31TOL 4th & 3 at M-OH 18, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.6%−0.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:35M-OH 4th & 1 at TOL 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−2.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:25M-OH 4th & 1 at TOL 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−1.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:45M-OH 4th & 8 at TOL 8, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:01TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:43M-OH 4th & 14 at M-OH 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:12M-OH 4th & 10 at TOL 21, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:32TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 26, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:05M-OH 4th & 7 at TOL 32, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:07TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 10, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 5:59TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:18TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:31TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:2226% → 28%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
26.3%
PENALTY TOL Offside (#12 E.Carter) 5 yards from MIA39 to MIA44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 5
OWN 44
0
26.4%
(14:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete deep middle to #0 K.Reynolds thrown to TOL35Similar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
26.4%
(14:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA47 (#6 B.Awls; #8 M.Poynter)Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+16
26.7%
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush right for 16 yards gain to the TOL37 (#0 N.Bowers), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
27.2%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short right to #84 C.Weaver thrown to TOL30 QB hurried by #9 L.JulienSimilar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
27.3%
(13:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush left for 4 yards gain to the TOL33 (#0 N.Bowers; #8 M.Poynter)Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
27.6%
(12:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete deep left to #8 K.Perry thrown to TOL02Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+3
27.6%
(12:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TOL30 (#93 M.Davis), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2INT
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:2873% → 71%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
27.5%
(12:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short left to #89 J.Petersen caught at TOL31, for 6 yards to the TOL36 (#1 E.Blakey; #24 M.Yharbrough), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+12
27.5%
(12:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 12 yards gain to the TOL48 (#29 S.Walters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
27.6%
(11:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short right to #2 J.Vandeross III caught at TOL50, for 5 yards to the MIA47 (#17 K.Martin), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
27.7%
(11:05) No Huddle #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete short right to #1 C.Trayanum thrown to MIA45 QB hurried by #20 A.TrickSimilar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+6
27.9%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short right to #2 J.Vandeross III caught at MIA43, for 6 yards to the MIA41 (#24 M.Yharbrough; #3 M.McCain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
28.0%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush right for 0 yards to the MIA41 (#3 M.McCain; #99 O.Alexander)Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
28.2%
(09:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete short right to #1 C.Trayanum thrown to MIA35Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+32
28.5%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete deep right to #9 T.Rudolph caught at MIA19, for 32 yards to the MIA09 (#26 E.Coppess), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
28.3%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short right to #9 T.Rudolph caught at MIA08, for 1 yard to the MIA08 (#33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
28.5%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason rush middle for 0 yards to the MIA08 (#94 J.Lukusa; #92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
28.9%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass intercepted by #26 E.Coppess at MIA00 QB hurried by #2 D.Bell, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 3:2730% → 30%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
29.6%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush right for 0 yards to the MIA20 (#49 C.D'Appolonia; #8 M.Poynter)Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
30.0%
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Reynolds rush left for 10 yards gain to the MIA30 (#4 A.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
30.4%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson rush left for 1 yard gain to the MIA31 (#49 C.D'Appolonia), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+1
30.6%
(05:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA32 (#38 K.Sherman; #49 C.D'Appolonia)Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-6
30.6%
(05:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MIA26 (#55 D.Ray Jr.)Similar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 14
OWN 26
+2
30.4%
(04:24) #34 P.Stainton punt 37 yards to the TOL37 #12 B.Hammer return 2 yards to the TOL39 (#33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:2669% → 69%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
30.6%
(04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short right to #10 K.Christian caught at TOL42, for 3 yards to the TOL42, out of bounds at TOL42Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
30.5%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TOL47 (#1 E.Blakey)Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+7
30.9%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short right to #11 R.Treadway caught at MIA46, for 7 yards to the MIA46 (#29 S.Walters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
30.3%
(02:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete deep middle to #9 T.Rudolph thrown to MIA09Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
30.4%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MIA36 (#1 E.Blakey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
30.6%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass intercepted by #1 E.Blakey at MIA17, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3233% → 33%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
32.8%
(01:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIA21 (#12 E.Carter; #22 N.Thompson)Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+4
33.0%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush left for 4 yards gain to the MIA25 (#12 E.Carter; #7 E.McNeil-Warren)Similar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
33.1%
(00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short right to #86 B.Shane thrown to MIA28 QB hurried by #7 E.McNeil-WarrenSimilar
Q1 0:02
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+1
32.6%
(00:11) #34 P.Stainton punt 45 yards to the TOL30 #12 B.Hammer return 4 yards to the TOL34 (#12 C.Hondru; #21 C.Toney) PENALTY TOL Illegal Block in Back (#27 D.Kelly) 10 yards from TOL31 to TOL21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:4167% → 66%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
32.7%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason rush right for 13 yards gain to the TOL34, out of bounds at TOL34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
32.3%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush left for 7 yards gain to the TOL41 (#1 E.Blakey)Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+10
31.6%
(14:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush right for 10 yards gain to the MIA49 (#12 C.Hondru; #1 E.Blakey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
31.5%
(14:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short left to #2 J.Vandeross III caught at TOL41, for 3 yards to the MIA46 (#17 K.Martin), out of bounds PENALTY TOL Holding (#12 B.Hammer) 10 yards from MIA46 to TOL44Similar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 17
OWN 44
0
32.8%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 0 yards to the TOL44 (#20 A.Trick; #33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 17
OWN 44
0
33.2%
(13:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete short middle to #1 C.Trayanum thrown to TOL44 QB hurried by #20 A.Trick and #94 J.LukusaSimilar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 17
OWN 44
+6
33.7%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush left for 6 yards gain to the TOL50 (#3 M.McCain; #33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 11
50
0
34.4%
(12:25) #36 E.Duran punt 35 yards to the MIA15 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:5635% → 37%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
34.9%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short right to #8 K.Perry thrown to MIA28Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
34.8%
(12:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Reynolds rush right for 2 yards gain to the MIA17 (#38 K.Sherman; #22 N.Thompson)Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+20
34.4%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass complete deep left to #8 K.Perry caught at MIA37, for 20 yards to the MIA37 (#4 A.Smith), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Penalty enforcement". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass complete deep left to #8 K.Perry caught at MIA37, for 20 yards to the MIA37 (#4 A.Smith), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TOL Targeting (#4 A.Smith) 15 yards from MIA37 to TOL48, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
36.4%
(11:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson sacked for loss of 5 yards to the MIA32 (#58 A.Dunn Jr)Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 15
OWN 32
0
35.9%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short right thrown to MIA40 QB hurried by #8 M.PoynterSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+14
35.1%
(10:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson rush right for 14 yards gain to the MIA46 (#49 C.D'Appolonia)Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
37.1%
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush right for 0 yards to the MIA46 (#97 A.Dunn; #0 N.Bowers), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:1567% → 76%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
32.9%
(09:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete deep right to #2 J.Vandeross III thrown to MIA25Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+18
33.0%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush left for 18 yards gain to the MIA28 (#1 E.Blakey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
32.2%
(08:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete short middle to #2 J.Vandeross III thrown to MIA22 QB hurried by #20 A.TrickSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
32.5%
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush left for 7 yards gain to the MIA21 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+6
32.3%
(08:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush left for 6 yards gain to the MIA15 (#1 E.Blakey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
31.5%
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush left for 1 yard loss to the MIA16 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 11
OPP 16
-2
32.0%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush right for 2 yards loss to the MIA18 (#33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+15
33.6%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short right to #2 J.Vandeross III caught at MIA10, for 15 yards to the MIA03 (#29 S.Walters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
24.2%
(06:03) #1 C.Trayanum rush left for 3 yards gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:59 #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:3728% → 31%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
27.5%
(05:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass complete short left to #84 C.Weaver caught at MIA40, for 17 yards to the MIA42 (#4 A.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
29.2%
(05:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Reynolds rush right for 2 yards loss to the MIA40 (#6 B.Awls; #7 E.McNeil-Warren)Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+9
28.3%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass complete short left to #8 K.Perry caught at MIA49, for 9 yards to the MIA49, out of bounds at MIA49Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
29.5%
PENALTY MIA False Start (#51 E.Smith) 5 yards from MIA49 to MIA44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+10
28.1%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass complete short left to #86 B.Shane caught at MIA48, for 10 yards to the TOL46 (#3 A.Fuller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-27
30.5%
(03:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass intercepted by #0 N.Bowers at TOL15 broken up by #4 A.Smith #0 N.Bowers return 44 yards to the MIA41 (#70 J.Schorsch) PENALTY MIA Chop Block declined TOL Personal Foul (#93 M.Davis) 15 yards from TOL42 to TOL27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · -6 yds · 2:1675% → 72%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
25.5%
#4 T.Gleason pass incomplete deep right to #11 R.Treadway thrown to TOL50 QB hurried by #1 E.BlakeySimilar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
26.3%
#1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TOL26 (#29 S.Walters; #94 J.Lukusa)Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+5
26.8%
PENALTY MIA Delay Of Game 5 yards from TOL26 to TOL31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+10
25.5%
#4 T.Gleason pass complete short right to #2 J.Vandeross III caught at TOL36, for 5 yards to the TOL36 (#29 S.Walters; #3 M.McCain) PENALTY TOL Holding (#72 E.Spoth) 10 yards from TOL31 to TOL21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 16
OWN 21
+5
27.0%
#4 T.Gleason pass complete short left to #2 J.Vandeross III caught at TOL26, for 5 yards to the TOL26 (#29 S.Walters; #3 M.McCain)Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 11
OWN 26
+13
27.9%
#36 E.Duran punt 54 yards to the MIA20 #10 L.Billups-Williams return 13 yards to the MIA33 (#24 J.Price)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4428% → 28%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
28.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson sacked for loss of 2 yards to the MIA31 (#27 D.Kelly)Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 12
OWN 31
0
27.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short left to #84 C.Weaver thrown to MIA36Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 12
OWN 31
-3
27.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MIA25 (#12 E.Carter, #93 M.Davis)Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 18
OWN 25
+54
27.5%
#34 P.Stainton punt 42 yards to the TOL33 #12 B.Hammer return 54 yards to the MIA13 (#13 J.Agee) PENALTY MIA Sideline Inteference 7 yards from MIA13 to MIA06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
13.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short left to #89 J.Petersen caught at MIA00, for 6 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:18 #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
21.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete deep right to #8 K.Perry thrown to TOL15 broken up by #4 A.SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:5482% → 94%
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
18.1%
(14:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short right to #11 R.Treadway caught at TOL30, for 9 yards to the TOL30, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+29
17.7%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 29 yards gain to the MIA41 (#29 S.Walters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
16.4%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush right for 1 yard loss to the MIA42 (#12 C.Hondru)Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
15.9%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete deep right thrown to MIA21 QB hurried by #94 J.LukusaSimilar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+15
16.1%
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short middle to #11 R.Treadway caught at MIA27, for 15 yards to the MIA27 (#12 C.Hondru), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
15.5%
(12:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short right to #9 T.Rudolph caught at MIA29, for 3 yards to the MIA24 (#24 M.Yharbrough)Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
6.4%
(11:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete deep middle to #11 R.Treadway caught at MIA00, for 24 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:31, 1ST DOWN #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4611% → 11%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
10.7%
(11:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush left for 4 yards gain to the MIA30 (#93 M.Davis)Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-14
10.6%
(10:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass intercepted by #6 B.Awls at MIA39 #6 B.Awls return 14 yards to the MIA25 (#10 L.Billups-Williams)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5594% → 95%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
6.1%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush left for 1 yard gain to the MIA24 (#33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+2
5.6%
(09:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush left for 2 yards gain to the MIA22 (#12 C.Hondru; #3 M.McCain)Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+4
5.6%
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short right to #9 T.Rudolph caught at MIA18, for 4 yards to the MIA18 (#29 S.Walters)Similar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
4.8%
(08:33) #45 D.Cunanan field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe), clock 08:31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 6:346% → 5%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
5.6%
(08:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass complete short left to #8 K.Perry caught at MIA45, for 14 yards to the MIA45, out of bounds at MIA45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
5.5%
(07:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Reynolds rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIA46 (#49 C.D'Appolonia)Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+1
5.4%
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA47 (#38 K.Sherman)Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+7
5.0%
(06:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass complete short middle to #86 B.Shane caught at TOL46, for 7 yards to the TOL46 (#7 E.McNeil-Warren)Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+1
5.0%
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TOL45 (#8 M.Poynter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
4.7%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TOL42 (#38 K.Sherman; #55 D.Ray Jr.)Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
4.6%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TOL36 (#38 K.Sherman; #7 E.McNeil-Warren)Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
4.6%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short left to #48 C.Becker thrown to TOL34 broken up by #6 B.AwlsSimilar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
4.5%
(03:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TOL34 (#38 K.Sherman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+26
4.6%
(02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass complete deep left to #8 K.Perry caught at TOL09, for 26 yards to the TOL08 (#4 A.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
4.4%
(02:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short left to #18 B.Isom thrown to TOL00 QB hurried by #38 K.ShermanSimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
4.3%
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short right thrown to TOL02 QB hurried by #58 A.Dunn JrSimilar
Q3 1:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
4.2%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short left to #18 B.Isom thrown to TOL00Similar
Q3 1:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
4.9%
(01:46) #31 D.Dzioban field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell), clock 01:45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 22 yds · 4:2997% → 98%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.9%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason rush right for 0 yards to the TOL25 (#22 J.Pons)Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
2.9%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short middle to #2 J.Vandeross III caught at TOL32, for 10 yards to the TOL35 (#29 S.Walters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
2.8%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TOL38 (#20 A.Trick)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
2.6%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete deep left to #2 J.Vandeross III thrown to MIA33Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+15
2.6%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short middle to #1 C.Trayanum caught at TOL37, for 15 yards to the MIA47 (#29 S.Walters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
2.4%
(14:07) No Huddle #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete short right to #5 T.Crosby Jr. thrown to MIA47 broken up by #29 S.WaltersSimilar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-2
2.4%
(14:03) No Huddle #10 K.Christian rush left for 2 yards loss to the MIA49 (#20 A.Trick; #23 O.McWood)Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+10
2.3%
(13:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason rush middle for 22 yards gain to the MIA27 (#50 J.Fuller) PENALTY TOL Holding declined TOL Holding (#73 J.Harder) 10 yards from MIA49 to TOL41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 22
OWN 41
+6
2.3%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush right for 6 yards gain to the TOL47 (#12 C.Hondru; #20 A.Trick)Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 16
OWN 47
0
2.4%
(12:03) #36 E.Duran punt 49 yards to the MIA04 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA04. #13 J.Agee injured on the playSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:023% → 2%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+10
2.5%
(12:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass complete short left to #84 C.Weaver caught at MIA14, for 10 yards to the MIA14 (#3 A.Fuller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
2.5%
(11:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short middle to #84 C.Weaver thrown to MIA29Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
2.5%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete deep left to #84 C.Weaver thrown to MIA40Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+10
2.4%
(11:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MIA24 (#49 C.D'Appolonia), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
2.4%
(10:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short middle to #84 C.Weaver thrown to MIA40 QB hurried by #93 M.DavisSimilar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
2.3%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass complete short left to #18 B.Isom caught at MIA33, for 9 yards to the MIA33, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+1
2.5%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 J.Ringer rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIA34 (#58 A.Dunn Jr), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
2.3%
(09:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MIA30 (#8 M.Poynter)Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 14
OWN 30
0
2.2%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short left to #84 C.Weaver thrown to MIA39Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 14
OWN 30
0
2.1%
(08:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete deep middle to #18 B.Isom thrown to MIA50 QB hurried by #8 M.PoynterSimilar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
2.1%
(08:50) #34 P.Stainton punt 40 yards to the TOL30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:5298% → 99%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
1.7%
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush left for 6 yards gain to the TOL36 (#1 E.Blakey; #33 J.Kuwatch). #12 C.Hondru injured on the playSimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-7
1.5%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush middle for 7 yards loss to the TOL29 fumbled by #10 K.Christian at TOL34 forced by #3 M.McCain recovered by MIA #1 E.Blakey at TOL29, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:303% → 2%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
2.7%
(07:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete deep right to #0 K.Reynolds thrown to TOL03 broken up by #7 E.McNeil-WarrenSimilar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
2.6%
(07:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short right to #8 K.Perry thrown to TOL23 PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (#4 A.Smith) 8 yards from TOL29 to TOL21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
2.5%
(07:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short right to #84 C.Weaver thrown to TOL15 QB hurried by #38 K.ShermanSimilar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
2.5%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short right to #84 C.Weaver thrown to TOL04 broken up by #3 A.FullerSimilar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
2.1%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short right to #30 J.Ringer thrown to TOL06Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 10
OPP 21
0
2.0%
(07:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete deep left to #0 K.Reynolds thrown to TOL00 broken up by #27 D.Kelly, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3299% → 99%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
1.4%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TOL26 (#33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
1.3%
(06:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush right for 0 yards to the TOL26 (#24 M.Yharbrough)Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
1.1%
(05:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass incomplete short left to #2 J.Vandeross III thrown to TOL42 broken up by #8 K.BeasleySimilar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
1.1%
(05:35) #36 E.Duran punt 34 yards to the MIA40 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23INT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:181% → 1%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
1.3%
(05:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass complete short middle to #0 K.Reynolds caught at MIA43, for 11 yards to the TOL49 (#49 C.D'Appolonia), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
1.3%
(05:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short right thrown to TOL47 QB hurried by #46 J.PetersSimilar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+14
1.3%
(04:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass complete short middle to #84 C.Weaver caught at TOL38, for 14 yards to the TOL35 (#21 B.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
1.5%
(04:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass incomplete short right to #30 J.Ringer thrown to TOL23Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-5
1.5%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson sacked for loss of 5 yards to the TOL40 (#46 J.Peters)Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+8
1.2%
(03:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson rush right for 8 yards gain to the TOL32, out of bounds at TOL32Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+3
1.2%
(03:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass intercepted by #4 A.Smith at TOL05 #4 A.Smith return for loss of 3 yards to the TOL02 (#8 K.Perry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4999% → 100%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
0.8%
(03:01) No Huddle #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TOL05 (#26 E.Coppess)Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+5
0.8%
(02:20) No Huddle #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TOL10 (#26 E.Coppess; #35 T.Dikos)Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 2
OWN 10
0
0.4%
(01:58) No Huddle #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 0 yards to the TOL10 (#11 B.Uihlein)Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
0.4%
(01:12) #36 E.Duran punt 35 yards to the TOL45 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at TOL45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:341% → 1%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
0.9%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Glass rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TOL40 (#49 C.D'Appolonia)Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+1
0.9%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Glass rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TOL39 (#38 K.Sherman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:18
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short left to #89 J.Petersen caught at MIA00, for 6 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:18 #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe)
-14
TD · Q2 5:59
(06:03) #1 C.Trayanum rush left for 3 yards gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:59 #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe)
-12.8
TD · Q3 11:31
(11:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete deep middle to #11 R.Treadway caught at MIA00, for 24 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:31, 1ST DOWN #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe)
-9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com