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BUF

Buffalo 19 at Central Michigan 38

CMU
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 12, 2025 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:49 · (06:53) #18 D.Duley punt 44 yards to the UB48 fair catch by #41 V.Snow at UB48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Home team on offense+2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.5Blowout margin−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:22: (02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #3 N.McMillan caught at UB44, for 55 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:22, 1ST DOWN #91 J.Howes kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #57 C.Selee) — BUF win probability +14.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:48: (00:50) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush right for 1 yard gain to the UB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:48 #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt) — CMU win probability +18.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:17: (09:19) #47 C.Graham field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt), clock 09:17 — CMU win probability +5.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:18: J. Labas pass to L. Lewis for 75 yds, for a TD (C. Graham KICK) — CMU win probability +19.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:38: T. Roberson sacked by K. Demma for -3 yds, D. Cochran fumbled, return for 85 yds — CMU win probability +3.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:41BUF 4th & 11 at CMU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:27CMU 4th & 14 at BUF 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:17BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 44, down 4
    Close callPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:04CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 11, up 4
    Close callPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:13BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:49CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:12BUF 4th & 1 at CMU 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.0%−2.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:44CMU 4th & 2 at BUF 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:17CMU 4th & 10 at BUF 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−8.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:30BUF 4th & 15 at CMU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−2.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−8.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:24BUF 4th & 21 at BUF 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−2.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:55CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:59BUF 4th & 18 at BUF 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:47CMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:22BUF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:38CMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:36CMU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:58BUF Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1748% → 49%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
47.8%
(14:53) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #5 N.Biggins caught at CMU23, for 6 yards to the CMU32 (#15 S.Brown; #36 K.Blackwell), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+4
47.9%
(14:15) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #3 T.Davis caught at CMU36, for 4 yards to the CMU36 (#8 J.McNair), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
48.1%
(13:37) PENALTY CMU False Start (#8 D.Temple) 5 yards from CMU36 to CMU31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+11
48.1%
(13:15) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #3 T.Davis caught at CMU41, for 11 yards to the CMU42, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-43
48.6%
(12:37) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass intercepted by #7 S.Brown at UB48 #7 S.Brown return 43 yards to the CMU09 (#3 T.Davis; #73 D.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:3952% → 52%
Q1 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
47.9%
(12:25) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson rush middle for 2 yards loss to the CMU11 (#56 K.Demma; #4 J.Jackson)Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
47.9%
(11:53) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short left to #3 N.McMillan thrown to CMU00Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
48.1%
(11:50) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short middle to #19 M.Velez thrown to CMU00Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
48.1%
(11:44) #91 J.Howes field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #57 C.Selee), clock 11:41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 5:0748% → 48%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.2%
(11:41) #3 T.Davis rush left for 5 yards gain to the CMU30 (#2 R.Murdock)Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
48.4%
(11:00) #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CMU35 (#8 J.McNair), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
48.4%
(10:19) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush left for 9 yards gain to the CMU44 (#2 R.Murdock; #6 M.Greer)Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+1
49.0%
(09:52) #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU45 (#9 K.Bradley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
49.0%
(09:14) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #20 L.Lewis caught at UB45, for 10 yards to the UB45 (#6 M.Greer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
49.3%
(08:31) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 0 yards to the UB45 (#9 K.Bradley; #15 S.Brown)Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
49.4%
(07:49) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UB44 (#8 J.McNair)Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-5
49.3%
(07:06) Shotgun #2 J.Labas sacked for loss of 5 yards to the UB49 (#97 J.Poyser)Similar
Q1 6:27
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
48.4%
(06:32) #18 D.Duley punt 34 yards to the UB15 fair catch by #41 V.Snow at UB15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4INT TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 2:2751% → 49%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+32
48.6%
(06:26) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete deep right to #8 J.Gathings caught at UB44, for 32 yards to the UB47 (#3 B.Deasfernandes), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
47.8%
(05:53) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short left to #41 V.Snow caught at CMU47, for 6 yards to the CMU47 (#10 E.Gordon; #1 D.Cochran)Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+2
47.5%
(05:14) Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush left for 2 yards gain to the CMU45 (#1 D.Cochran; #12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+3
47.7%
(04:28) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson rush right for 3 yards gain to the CMU42 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-48
51.2%
Jordan Kwiatkowski 48 Yd Interception Return (Cade Graham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5FUMBLE
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:5849% → 49%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
51.5%
(03:36) Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 0 yards to the UB42 (#40 L.Brown; #4 J.Jackson)Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+7
52.0%
(03:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UB49 (#4 J.Jackson; #40 L.Brown)Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+4
51.5%
(02:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU47 (#15 C.Spann; #4 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
51.0%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 12 yards gain to the CMU35 (#17 M.Blackwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
50.5%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #3 N.McMillan caught at CMU31, for 4 yards to the CMU31, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+2
50.4%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU29 (#17 M.Blackwell; #96 Q.Bird)Similar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+20
51.2%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short left to #8 J.Gathings caught at CMU25, for 20 yards to the CMU09 fumbled by #8 J.Gathings at CMU23 forced by #8 A.Snell recovered by CMU #4 J.Jackson at CMU09, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2447% → 43%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
53.4%
(12:53) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson rush right for 5 yards gain to the UB42 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
52.8%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UB44 (#97 M.Heldman)Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
55.3%
(11:28) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short left to #3 N.McMillan thrown to CMU49Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
56.7%
(11:21) #42 D.Drennan punt 54 yards to the CMU02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0656% → 56%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
55.9%
(11:14) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CMU07 (#2 R.Murdock; #1 M.Cooper)Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+2
56.1%
(10:27) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU09 (#2 R.Murdock)Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+2
56.0%
(09:45) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU11 (#8 J.McNair)Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
55.7%
(09:08) #18 D.Duley punt 43 yards to the UB46 fair catch by #41 V.Snow at UB46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4743% → 40%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
56.7%
(09:03) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short middle to #41 V.Snow thrown to CMU49Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
57.3%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #19 M.Velez caught at UB45, for 2 yards to the UB48 (#6 K.Carroll; #17 M.Blackwell)Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
57.5%
(08:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short middle to #3 N.McMillan thrown to CMU41 QB hurried by #56 K.DemmaSimilar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
59.6%
(08:17) #42 D.Drennan punt 46 yards to the CMU06 fair catch by #15 C.Spann at CMU06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1459% → 58%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
58.8%
(08:13) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush right for 0 yards to the CMU06 (#2 R.Murdock; #90 G.Wolo)Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
58.9%
(07:32) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon pass incomplete short left to #20 L.Lewis thrown to CMU03Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+2
58.5%
(07:29) Shotgun #2 J.Labas rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU08 (#0 K.Stewart)Similar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 8
OWN 8
0
57.9%
(06:53) #18 D.Duley punt 44 yards to the UB48 fair catch by #41 V.Snow at UB48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3141% → 41%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
58.6%
(06:47) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete deep right to #41 V.Snow thrown to CMU30Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
59.1%
(06:43) Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush right for 0 yards to the UB48 (#1 D.Cochran; #4 J.Jackson)Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+9
60.3%
(05:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short left to #8 J.Gathings caught at CMU43, for 9 yards to the CMU43 (#6 K.Carroll)Similar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
59.3%
(05:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 0 yards to the CMU43 (#97 M.Heldman; #1 D.Cochran), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2062% → 62%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
62.2%
(05:12) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #22 B.Townsend caught at CMU43, for 5 yards to the CMU48 (#15 S.Brown)Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
62.8%
(04:32) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short right to #8 D.Temple thrown to UB43Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+3
62.1%
(04:26) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush left for 3 yards gain to the UB49 (#11 D.Morgan; #2 R.Murdock)Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
62.1%
(03:49) #18 D.Duley punt 36 yards to the UB13 fair catch by #41 V.Snow at UB13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12TD
4 plays · 87 yds · 1:1437% → 53%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
62.7%
(03:45) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short left to #8 J.Gathings caught at UB22, for 13 yards to the UB26 (#3 B.Deasfernandes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
62.3%
(03:24) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #3 N.McMillan caught at UB32, for 6 yards to the UB32, out of bounds at UB32Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+13
61.5%
(03:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UB45 (#15 C.Spann; #10 E.Gordon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
47.3%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #3 N.McMillan caught at UB44, for 55 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:22, 1ST DOWN #91 J.Howes kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #57 C.Selee)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 1:1650% → 67%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
49.6%
(02:15) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #19 T.McIntosh caught at CMU35, for 6 yards to the CMU35, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+31
47.3%
(01:59) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #19 T.McIntosh caught at UB48, for 31 yards to the UB34 (#36 K.Blackwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
50.7%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #19 T.McIntosh caught at UB30, for 4 yards to the UB30 (#36 K.Blackwell)Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+9
50.3%
(01:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UB21 (#39 M.Gonser), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
50.2%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #20 L.Lewis caught at UB25, for 5 yards loss to the UB26 (#3 O.Bridges)Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 15
OPP 26
0
51.1%
(01:04) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete deep right to #3 T.Davis thrown to UB00 QB hurried by #97 J.PoyserSimilar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 15
OPP 26
+25
49.0%
(00:59) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #20 L.Lewis caught at UB20, for 25 yards to the UB01 (#6 M.Greer; #15 S.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.3%
(00:50) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush right for 1 yard gain to the UB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:48 #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14END OF HALF
11 plays · 17 yds · 0:3435% → 34%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
65.4%
(00:43) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short middle to #21 P.Clacks III thrown to UB45Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
66.1%
(00:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson rush left for 2 yards gain to the UB32 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+5
66.6%
PENALTY UB False Start (#52 J.Timm) 5 yards from UB32 to UB27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+12
67.2%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UB39 (#2 E.Rikard) PENALTY CMU Personal Foul (#12 J.Kwiatkowski) 15 yards from UB39 to CMU46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
61.7%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UB48 (#97 M.Heldman)Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 16
OWN 48
-1
65.4%
(00:19) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson sacked for loss of 1 yard to the UB47 (#56 K.Demma)Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 17
OWN 47
0
66.0%
(00:04) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete deep right to #3 N.McMillan thrown to CMU08 broken up by #4 J.JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:4042% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.2%
Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Gathings thrown to UB30Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
58.5%
(14:49) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short left to #41 V.Snow thrown to UB28Similar
Q3 14:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
59.1%
(14:49) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short middle to #41 V.Snow caught at UB39, for 15 yards to the UB40 (#4 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
55.8%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short left to #3 N.McMillan caught at UB47, for 7 yards to the UB47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+10
54.4%
(13:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short left to #3 N.McMillan caught at CMU43, for 10 yards to the CMU43 (#6 K.Carroll), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
54.1%
(13:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short right thrown to CMU43 broken up by #97 M.Heldman QB hurried by #97 M.HeldmanSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
54.3%
(13:20) Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU41 fumbled by #5 A.Henderson at CMU42 forced by #12 J.Kwiatkowski recovered by CMU #10 E.Gordon at CMU41, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:4962% → 70%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
61.9%
(13:13) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #5 N.Biggins caught at CMU41, for 11 yards to the UB48 (#3 O.Bridges; #39 M.Gonser), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+34
62.8%
(12:30) #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #19 T.McIntosh caught at UB30, for 34 yards to the UB14 (#8 J.McNair), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
63.2%
(11:50) #3 T.Davis rush right for 12 yards gain (1) to the UB02 (#6 M.Greer), out of bounds PENALTY CMU Holding (#8 D.Temple) 10 yards from UB13 to UB23Similar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 19
OPP 23
-4
63.5%
(11:23) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 4 yards loss to the UB27 (#11 D.Morgan)Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 23
OPP 27
+8
65.5%
(10:45) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush left for 8 yards gain to the UB19 (#7 S.Brown; #6 M.Greer)Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 15
OPP 19
+5
64.3%
(09:59) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush right for 5 yards gain to the UB14 (#15 S.Brown; #0 K.Stewart)Similar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+32
70.2%
(09:19) #47 C.Graham field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt), clock 09:17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:3533% → 36%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
67.3%
(09:09) Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UB27 (#1 D.Cochran)Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+4
66.4%
(08:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UB31 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+7
66.8%
(08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UB38 (#2 E.Rikard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
66.1%
(07:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UB37 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+44
67.4%
(07:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #41 V.Snow rush right for 44 yards gain to the CMU19 (#17 M.Blackwell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
61.9%
(06:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU18 (#85 J.Douglas; #98 J.Decker)Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+5
62.1%
PENALTY UB False Start (#73 H.Tabansi) 5 yards from CMU18 to CMU23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 14
OPP 23
+5
64.5%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete deep left to #8 J.Gathings caught at CMU01, for 22 yards to the CMU01, End Of Play PENALTY UB Illegal Formation (#51 T.Davis) 5 yards from CMU23 to CMU28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 19
OPP 28
0
65.1%
(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short left to #8 J.Gathings thrown to CMU22 broken up by #3 B.DeasfernandesSimilar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 19
OPP 28
+4
67.8%
(05:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU24 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski; #56 K.Demma)Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 15
OPP 24
+42
64.2%
(04:33) #91 J.Howes field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #57 C.Selee), clock 04:30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
80.3%
J. Labas pass to L. Lewis for 75 yds, for a TD (C. Graham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:3822% → 17%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
78.2%
(04:11) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short middle to #3 N.McMillan caught at UB40, for 14 yards to the UB44 (#10 E.Gordon; #3 B.Deasfernandes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
78.4%
(03:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short left to #19 M.Velez caught at UB48, for 4 yards to the UB48 (#10 E.Gordon)Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
78.3%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #8 J.Gathings caught at CMU46, for 7 yards to the CMU45, out of bounds at CMU45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
77.6%
(02:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short middle to #41 V.Snow thrown to CMU45 broken up by #94 D.FisherSimilar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
77.9%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #8 J.Gathings caught at CMU41, for 4 yards to the CMU41 (#15 C.Spann), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
78.6%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short left to #41 V.Snow thrown to CMU35Similar
Q3 1:50
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+15
80.1%
(01:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short middle to #41 V.Snow caught at CMU28, for 13 yards to the CMU28 (#15 C.Spann) PENALTY UB Pass Interference (#21 P.Clacks III) 15 yards from CMU41 to UB44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 21
OWN 44
0
83.5%
(01:31) #42 D.Drennan punt 50 yards to the CMU06, out of bounds at CMU06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 4:2183% → 86%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
83.0%
(01:24) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #20 L.Lewis caught at CMU08, for 9 yards to the CMU15 (#2 R.Murdock)Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+3
83.7%
(00:43) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU18 (#0 K.Stewart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
85.4%
(14:59) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #88 H.Dryden caught at CMU23, for 9 yards to the CMU27 QB hurried by #90 G.Wolo (#0 K.Stewart)Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+2
86.0%
(14:19) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU29 (#90 G.Wolo; #9 K.Bradley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
86.4%
(13:24) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush left for 1 yard gain to the CMU30 (#39 M.Gonser; #0 K.Stewart)Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+4
86.6%
(12:43) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #20 L.Lewis caught at CMU34, for 4 yards to the CMU34 (#0 K.Stewart)Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
86.6%
(12:01) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete deep right to #20 L.Lewis thrown to UB45Similar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 5
OWN 34
+15
86.0%
(11:55) #18 D.Duley punt 43 yards to the UB23 #41 V.Snow return 15 yards to the UB38 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski). The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down by contact". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (11:55) #18 D.Duley punt 43 yards to the UB23 #41 V.Snow return 15 yards to the UB37 fumbled by #41 V.Snow at UB37 forced by #12 J.Kwiatkowski recovered by CMU #7 E.Conoran at UB38, End Of Play)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:3817% → 13%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
83.4%
(11:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UB30 (#40 L.Brown, #85 J.Douglas)Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 18
OWN 30
0
86.2%
(11:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete deep right to #21 P.Clacks III thrown to CMU47Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 18
OWN 30
0
87.0%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete deep middle to #3 N.McMillan thrown to CMU45 QB hurried by #12 J.KwiatkowskiSimilar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 18
OWN 30
0
87.5%
(11:09) #42 D.Drennan punt 55 yards to the CMU15 #15 C.Spann return 0 yards to the CMU15 (#4 J.Capo; #85 A.Schnackenberg)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
90.4%
(10:59) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass intercepted by #39 M.Gonser at CMU14 #39 M.Gonser return 2 yards to the CMU12 (#58 A.Poumele), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+85
94.3%
T. Roberson sacked by K. Demma for -3 yds, D. Cochran fumbled, return for 85 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24INT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:414% → 4%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
95.7%
(10:26) Shotgun #2 T.Roberson sacked for loss of 5 yards to the UB19 (#97 M.Heldman)Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+11
95.8%
(10:07) Shotgun #9 G.Gray pass complete short left to #41 V.Snow caught at UB29, for 11 yards to the UB30 (#40 L.Brown), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-9
95.6%
(09:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Gray pass intercepted by #10 E.Gordon at CMU50 #10 E.Gordon return 9 yards to the UB41 (#41 V.Snow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:5799% → 100%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.0%
(09:38) #2 J.Labas pass incomplete deep right to #8 D.Temple thrown to UB20Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+13
99.7%
(09:33) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UB28 (#7 S.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
99.8%
(08:49) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UB16 (#6 M.Greer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
99.8%
(08:07) #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UB10 (#2 R.Murdock; #7 S.Brown)Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
99.8%
(07:24) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 0 yards to the UB10 (#7 S.Brown; #15 S.Brown)Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Tommy McIntosh 10 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:340% → 3%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
(06:34) Shotgun #9 G.Gray pass incomplete short right to #3 N.McMillan thrown to UB30Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.6%
(06:32) Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UB32 (#49 K.Hayden)Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.6%
(06:02) Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UB36 (#93 D.Bennett; #17 M.Blackwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.6%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the UB37 (#2 E.Rikard; #29 A.Thomas, Jr.)Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+10
99.6%
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UB47 (#2 E.Rikard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.6%
(04:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UB49 (#29 A.Thomas, Jr.)Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+6
99.6%
(04:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Gray pass complete short left to #14 E.King caught at CMU45, for 6 yards to the CMU45 QB hurried by #81 M.Denkins (#45 X.White; #7 E.Conoran)Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+8
99.6%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CMU37 (#7 E.Conoran; #42 L.Swanson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
99.6%
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Gray pass complete short left to #25 T.Shelton, Jr. caught at CMU34, for 3 yards to the CMU34 (#7 E.Conoran), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+4
99.6%
(02:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Gray pass complete short middle to #14 E.King caught at CMU30, for 4 yards to the CMU30 (#7 E.Conoran)Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+4
99.6%
(02:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Gray pass complete short middle to #41 V.Snow caught at CMU26, for 4 yards to the CMU26 (#23 K.Krebs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.6%
(02:07) Shotgun #9 G.Gray pass incomplete short middle to #14 E.King thrown to CMU21 broken up by #33 V.EarlSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
97.5%
Nik McMillan 26 Yd pass from Gunnar Gray (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27END OF GAME
10 plays · 10 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
(01:58) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush left for 0 yards to the CMU25 (#16 J.Keough)Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.7%
(01:54) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CMU34 (#9 K.Bradley)Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
99.7%
(01:46) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon pass incomplete deep left to #86 C.Payne thrown to UB35 PENALTY UB Offside (#17 S.Riser-Pressley) 5 yards from CMU34 to CMU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
99.7%
(01:39) Kneel down by Central Michigan at CMU38 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-2
99.7%
(00:58) Kneel down by Central Michigan at CMU36 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 13
OWN 36
-1
99.7%
(00:29) Kneel down by Central Michigan at CMU35 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:18
J. Labas pass to L. Lewis for 75 yds, for a TD (C. Graham KICK)
+19
TD · Q2 0:48
(00:50) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush right for 1 yard gain to the UB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:48 #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt)
+18.3
TD · Q2 2:22
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #3 N.McMillan caught at UB44, for 55 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:22, 1ST DOWN #91 J.Howes kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #57 C.Selee)
-14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com