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KENT

Kent State 13 at Ball State 17

BALL
2025 · Week 11 · Nov 5, 2025 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreKENT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:42: (04:42) Shotgun #25 D.Delaney Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:42, 1ST DOWN #47 W.Hryszko kick attempt good (H: #61 C.Durkin, LS: #41 G.Goodell) — KENT win probability +18.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 11:07: (11:10) #47 W.Hryszko field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #61 C.Durkin, LS: #41 G.Goodell), clock 11:07 — KENT win probability +8.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:38: (03:44) Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush right for 0 yards to the KSU37 (#5 T.Aden; #10 C.Williams) — BALL win probability +17.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 1:53: (01:58) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #85 K.Anthony caught at KSU27, for 29 yards to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53, 1ST DOWN #40 D.Pippin kick attempt good (H: #43 A.Saul, LS: #45 C.Britton) — BALL win probability +52.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:13: (00:13) Kneel down by Ball St. at BSU36 for loss of 2 yards — BALL win probability +16.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 9 of 10KENT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:53KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:59BALL 4th & 5 at KENT 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:28KENT 4th & 10 at BALL 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:21BALL 4th & 16 at KENT 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:05KENT 4th & 2 at KENT 14, down 3
    Close callPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:18KENT 4th & 18 at BALL 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−4.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:59BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:02KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:12BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:20BALL 4th & 16 at BALL 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−3.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:40KENT 4th & 8 at BALL 9, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−10.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:22BALL 4th & 16 at BALL 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−5.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:35BALL 4th & 13 at KENT 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−2.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:07KENT 4th & 9 at BALL 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−2.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−18.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:14BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:11BALL 4th & 8 at KENT 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−3.6
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−8.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:45KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.0%−4.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:53BALL 4th & 2 at KENT 29, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.0 ptsWent for it · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.3%−3.0
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−21.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:57KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.6%−11.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:14KENT 4th & 1 at BALL 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.2%−12.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−12.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:31BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:42KENT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KENTDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5645% → 44%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
55.5%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush middle for 0 yards to the KSU17 (#21 J.Stemler; #44 N.Voorhis)Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
55.5%
(14:20) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short right to #21 C.Wolford thrown to KSU21 broken up by #0 A.Chea QB hurried by #42 L.StarksSimilar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+9
55.6%
(14:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short left to #85 S.Brown caught at KSU20, for 9 yards to the KSU26 (#7 A.Whitner)Similar
Q1 13:53
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
55.6%
(13:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush middle for 0 yards to the KSU26 (#47 D.Hughes; #21 J.Stemler) PENALTY KSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#11 C.Berry) 13 yards from KSU26 to KSU13, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4356% → 56%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
55.8%
(13:45) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 2 yards loss to the KSU15 (#3 C.Young)Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+1
55.9%
(13:11) Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush left for 1 yard gain to the KSU14 (#17 M.Carroll)Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+6
56.0%
(12:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush right for 6 yards gain to the KSU08 (#19 D.Barnes), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
56.2%
(11:59) #40 D.Pippin field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #43 A.Saul, LS: #45 C.Britton), clock 11:59Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3MISSED FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:2944% → 43%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
56.1%
(11:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete deep left to #1 D.Martin caught at BSU50, for 25 yards to the KSU50, out of bounds at BSU50, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (11:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete deep left to #1 D.Martin thrown to BSU50 QB hurried by #6 C.Johnson)Similar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
50
+27
55.8%
(11:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 27 yards gain to the BSU23 (#15 D.Fields; #48 S.Feeney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
55.7%
(10:56) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU22 (#41 B.Marsh; #33 D.Conley)Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+4
55.7%
(10:20) Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush right for 4 yards gain to the BSU18 (#33 D.Conley; #2 M.Gravely Jr.)Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
56.0%
(09:44) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short right to #6 W.Harris thrown to BSU00 broken up by #7 A.Whitner. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (09:44) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #6 W.Harris caught at BSU00, for 18 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:36, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
56.6%
(09:30) #47 W.Hryszko field goal attempt from 40 yards NO GOOD (H: #61 C.Durkin, LS: #41 G.Goodell), clock 09:28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:5757% → 56%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+35
56.6%
(09:25) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 35 yards gain to the KSU42 (#18 T.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
57.2%
(08:50) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSU41 (#3 C.Young; #33 J.Roy)Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
57.4%
(08:12) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Robinson thrown to KSU26Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-4
57.2%
(08:06) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 7 yards to the KSU48 (#3 C.Young, #33 J.Roy)Similar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 16
OPP 48
0
56.4%
(07:25) #43 A.Saul punt 42 yards to the KSU06 fair catch by #6 W.Harris at KSU06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0743% → 42%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
57.2%
(07:21) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush right for 0 yards to the KSU06 (#31 D.Echoles Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+3
57.5%
(06:41) Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSU09 (#2 M.Gravely Jr.; #16 M.McCargo)Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+5
58.0%
(05:52) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short left to #1 D.Martin caught at KSU14, for 5 yards to the KSU14 (#4 E.McClain), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 2
OWN 14
0
58.3%
(05:10) #61 C.Durkin punt 36 yards to the KSU50, out of bounds at BSU50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6TD
16 plays · 50 yds · 6:2858% → 64%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
50
0
58.2%
(05:03) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short right to #5 Q.Magwood thrown to KSU36Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 10
50
+1
58.0%
(04:58) Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush right for 1 yard gain to the KSU49 (#3 C.Young)Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+4
57.6%
(04:22) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 4 yards gain to the KSU45 (#0 M.Woods; #17 M.Carroll)Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 5
OPP 45
+5
57.5%
PENALTY KSU Offside (#6 M.Maddox) 5 yards from KSU45 to KSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
58.4%
Shotgun #3 E.Weatherly rush right for 22 yards gain to the KSU18 (#3 C.Young) PENALTY BSU Holding (#88 D.Hamilton) 10 yards from KSU40 to KSU50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 20
50
+6
57.8%
Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #3 E.Weatherly caught at KSU50, for 6 yards to the KSU44, out of bounds at KSU44Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 14
OPP 44
0
57.8%
Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short right to #88 D.Hamilton thrown to KSU40Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+21
57.4%
Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #2 T.Robinson caught at KSU26, for 21 yards to the KSU23 (#12 J.Boamah), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
58.7%
Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 8 yards gain to the KSU15 (#0 M.Woods; #31 D.Jackson III)Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+1
58.7%
Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSU14 (#0 M.Woods)Similar
Q1 0:29
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+1
58.8%
(00:29) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSU13 (#94 A.Williams; #10 C.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
59.6%
(14:57) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #9 Q.Ashley caught at KSU02, for 11 yards to the KSU02 (#3 C.Young), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
59.7%
(14:23) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short right to #5 Q.Magwood thrown to KSU00 broken up by #31 D.Jackson IIISimilar
Q2 14:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
59.8%
(14:22) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSU01 (#11 A.Campbell)Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.3%
(13:31) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short middle to #4 T.Horton caught at KSU04, for 1 yard to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:31 #40 D.Pippin kick attempt good (H: #43 A.Saul, LS: #34 C.Tripp) #40 D.Pippin kick attempt good (H: #43 A.Saul, LS: #45 C.Britton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 6:5436% → 33%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
64.0%
(13:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields rush right for 9 yards gain to the KSU30 (#4 E.McClain)Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 1
OWN 30
-2
63.5%
(12:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 2 yards loss to the KSU28 (#2 M.Gravely Jr.; #33 D.Conley)Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+20
64.2%
(12:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short left to #11 C.Berry caught at KSU30, for 20 yards to the KSU48 (#6 C.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
63.1%
(11:29) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short left to #11 C.Berry caught at BSU40, for 14 yards to the BSU38 (#20 W.Yates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
63.5%
(11:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush middle for 0 yards to the BSU38 (#2 M.Gravely Jr.)Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+10
63.9%
(10:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #6 W.Harris caught at BSU31, for 10 yards to the BSU28 (#10 J.Harmon; #16 M.McCargo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
63.4%
(09:39) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields rush left for 5 yards gain to the BSU23, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+3
63.6%
(08:59) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush right for 3 yards gain to the BSU20 (#10 J.Harmon; #47 D.Hughes)Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+5
64.8%
(08:27) Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU15 (#2 M.Gravely Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
64.3%
PENALTY KSU False Start (#75 B.Crowell) 5 yards from BSU15 to BSU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+5
64.9%
PENALTY KSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from BSU20 to BSU25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 20
OPP 25
0
65.3%
(07:13) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short left to #13 A.Banks thrown to BSU25Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 20
OPP 25
+2
65.8%
(07:04) Shotgun #84 J.Kimbrough rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU23 (#22 J.Beebe; #44 N.Voorhis)Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 18
OPP 23
0
67.2%
(06:21) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short left to #87 D.Taylor thrown to BSU13 QB hurried by #48 S.FeeneySimilar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 18
OPP 23
+39
66.6%
(06:19) #47 W.Hryszko field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #61 C.Durkin, LS: #41 G.Goodell), clock 06:18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 4:0967% → 66%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.7%
(06:16) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU29 (#22 J.Rawlison)Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
67.1%
(05:32) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush right for 0 yards to the BSU29 (#94 A.Williams)Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
66.5%
PENALTY KSU Offside (#95 J.Davis) 5 yards from BSU29 to BSU34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
67.6%
(04:25) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush left for 3 yards gain to the BSU37 (#3 C.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
68.5%
(03:45) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #3 E.Weatherly caught at BSU33, for 3 yards to the BSU40 (#3 C.Young), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
69.6%
(03:14) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU42 (#17 M.Carroll; #58 D.Blachewicz)Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
68.7%
(02:32) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short right to #2 T.Robinson thrown to KSU48. The previous play is under automatic review - "Interception". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (02:32) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #2 T.Robinson caught at KSU48, for 10 yards to the KSU48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+5
67.0%
PENALTY BSU False Start (#48 S.Feeney) 5 yards from BSU42 to BSU37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
66.4%
#43 A.Saul punt 35 yards to the KSU28 fair catch by #6 W.Harris at KSU28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4133% → 31%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
67.0%
(01:56) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short left to #6 W.Harris caught at KSU25, for 4 yards loss to the KSU24 (#1 K.Kelly)Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 14
OWN 24
0
67.8%
(01:20) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete deep right to #85 S.Brown thrown to BSU45Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+2
68.7%
(01:18) Shotgun #84 J.Kimbrough rush right for 2 yards gain to the KSU26 (#44 N.Voorhis)Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 12
OWN 26
+4
69.0%
(01:14) #61 C.Durkin punt 36 yards to the BSU38 #1 J.Lewis return 4 yards to the BSU42 (#34 R.Terrero Jr.)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4770% → 67%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
69.8%
(00:59) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short right to #3 E.Weatherly thrown to BSU40 broken up by #0 M.WoodsSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
68.9%
(00:58) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush right for 3 yards gain to the BSU45 (#4 J.Mathis)Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
68.8%
(00:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete deep right to #88 D.Hamilton thrown to KSU28 broken up by #18 T.MillerSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
67.1%
(00:16) #43 A.Saul punt 19 yards to the KSU36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
66.2%
(00:11) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields sacked for loss of 9 yards to the KSU27 (#44 N.Voorhis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:3369% → 69%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.3%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU26 (#10 C.Williams; #12 D.DeShields)Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
69.3%
(14:23) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU30 (#0 M.Woods; #10 C.Williams)Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+19
69.1%
(13:35) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #88 D.Hamilton caught at BSU32, for 19 yards to the BSU49 (#18 T.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-11
72.0%
(13:02) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 11 yards to the BSU38 (#5 T.Aden)Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 21
OWN 38
+5
71.0%
(12:15) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #9 Q.Ashley caught at BSU35, for 5 yards to the BSU43 (#18 T.Miller; #0 M.Woods)Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 16
OWN 43
0
70.2%
(11:35) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short middle to #6 K.Gross thrown to BSU50Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 16
OWN 43
+14
68.8%
(11:30) #43 A.Saul punt 42 yards to the KSU15 #6 W.Harris return 14 yards to the KSU29 (#21 J.Stemler; #16 M.McCargo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 62 yds · 4:3231% → 30%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
69.2%
(11:20) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.Martin thrown to BSU20 QB hurried by #42 L.StarksSimilar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
69.7%
(11:07) Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush right for 3 yards gain to the KSU32 (#21 J.Stemler)Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+42
70.5%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #6 W.Harris caught at KSU35, for 42 yards to the BSU26 (#15 D.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
64.9%
(09:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush left for 1 yard gain to the BSU25 (#1 J.Lewis; #21 J.Stemler)Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+14
65.6%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short middle to #18 H.Hopperton caught at BSU20, for 14 yards to the BSU11 (#15 D.Fields; #2 M.Gravely Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
65.2%
(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush right for 1 yard gain to the BSU10 (#1 J.Lewis; #93 S.Hudson)Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+1
65.2%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU09 (#7 A.Whitner; #31 D.Echoles Jr.)Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
67.3%
(07:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields rush left for 0 yards to the BSU09 (#0 A.Chea)Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 8
OPP 9
0
70.0%
(06:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Martin thrown to BSU00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1175% → 74%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
75.2%
(06:40) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU11 (#31 D.Jackson III)Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
75.3%
(06:04) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short left to #9 Q.Ashley thrown to BSU15 broken up by #4 J.MathisSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 8
OWN 11
-4
74.4%
(05:58) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 8 yards to the BSU03 (#4 J.Mathis, #15 S.Abuhamdeh)Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 16
OWN 3
+24
73.5%
(05:23) #43 A.Saul punt 31 yards to the BSU34 #6 W.Harris return 24 yards to the BSU10, out of bounds at BSU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:3334% → 53%
Q3 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
66.0%
(05:20) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BSU04 (#22 J.Beebe)Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
47.5%
(04:42) Shotgun #25 D.Delaney Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:42, 1ST DOWN #47 W.Hryszko kick attempt good (H: #61 C.Durkin, LS: #41 G.Goodell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16MISSED FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 4:0757% → 55%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
57.1%
PENALTY KSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#7 A.Stockstill) 15 yards from BSU25 to BSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
59.7%
(04:41) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short middle to #4 T.Horton caught at BSU35, for 1 yard to the BSU41 (#4 J.Mathis)Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+8
59.0%
(04:08) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #88 D.Hamilton caught at BSU46, for 8 yards to the BSU49 (#18 T.Miller), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
60.0%
(03:46) Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush middle for 0 yards to the BSU49 (#13 T.Tucker)Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+5
58.6%
PENALTY KSU Offside (#55 J.Cordoba) 5 yards from BSU49 to KSU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
61.9%
(02:51) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU44 (#0 M.Woods)Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+14
61.9%
(02:11) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #4 T.Horton caught at KSU40, for 14 yards to the KSU30 (#3 C.Young), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
63.2%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 6 yards gain to the KSU24 (#33 J.Roy) PENALTY BSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#89 D.Cassens) 15 yards from KSU24 to KSU39Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 19
OPP 39
+6
59.9%
(01:26) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #3 E.Weatherly caught at KSU41, for 6 yards to the KSU33 (#31 D.Jackson III; #22 J.Rawlison)Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 13
OPP 33
0
59.1%
(00:43) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short left to #5 Q.Magwood thrown to KSU20Similar
Q3 0:35
4TH & 13
OPP 33
+50
55.4%
(00:38) #40 D.Pippin field goal attempt from 50 yards NO GOOD (H: #43 A.Saul, LS: #45 C.Britton), clock 00:35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:1448% → 60%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
52.2%
(00:33) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #30 D.Clark caught at KSU33, for 12 yards to the KSU45 (#10 J.Harmon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
49.7%
(00:00) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush right for 3 yards gain to the KSU48 (#2 M.Gravely Jr.; #21 J.Stemler)Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+30
49.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete deep middle to #6 W.Harris caught at BSU28, for 30 yards to the BSU22 (#2 M.Gravely Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
46.5%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush left for 4 yards gain to the BSU18 (#0 A.Chea; #47 D.Hughes)Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+6
46.2%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #1 D.Martin caught at BSU12, for 6 yards to the BSU12, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
46.1%
(13:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU10 (#33 D.Conley; #21 J.Stemler)Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+1
46.0%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush left for 1 yard gain to the BSU09 (#10 J.Harmon; #20 W.Yates)Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+5
47.9%
(12:16) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush right for 8 yards gain to the BSU01 (#0 A.Chea) PENALTY KSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from BSU09 to BSU14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+3
48.4%
(11:46) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU11 (#21 J.Stemler)Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
39.7%
(11:10) #47 W.Hryszko field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #61 C.Durkin, LS: #41 G.Goodell), clock 11:07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4744% → 39%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.7%
(11:06) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU28 (#8 N.Brown)Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
42.3%
(10:34) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #9 Q.Ashley caught at BSU24, for 2 yards to the BSU30 (#31 D.Jackson III), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
41.0%
(10:23) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short middle to #5 Q.Magwood thrown to BSU40Similar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
38.5%
(10:17) #43 A.Saul punt 30 yards to the KSU40 fair catch by #6 W.Harris at KSU40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19INT
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:2666% → 68%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
33.8%
(10:12) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush right for 11 yards gain to the BSU49 (#22 J.Beebe), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
32.1%
(09:46) Shotgun #85 S.Brown pass intercepted by #1 J.Lewis at BSU18, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:1642% → 40%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
42.0%
(09:40) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #89 D.Cassens caught at BSU21, for 12 yards to the BSU30 (#0 M.Woods; #3 C.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
42.5%
(09:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush right for 7 yards gain to the BSU37 (#6 M.Maddox) PENALTY BSU Holding (#66 C.Hood) 10 yards from BSU30 to BSU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+6
41.4%
(08:46) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BSU26 (#32 T.Rubinstein; #31 D.Jackson III)Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+19
41.1%
(08:12) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #44 M.Webster caught at BSU38, for 19 yards to the BSU45 (#21 J.Cordoba), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
45.7%
(07:36) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 0 yards to the BSU45 (#11 A.Campbell; #0 M.Woods)Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
42.1%
(07:06) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #6 K.Gross caught at BSU46, for 6 yards to the KSU49 (#3 C.Young) PENALTY KSU Personal Foul (#3 C.Young) 15 yards from KSU49 to KSU34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
48.2%
(06:39) Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush middle for 0 yards to the KSU34 (#21 J.Cordoba; #17 M.Carroll)Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
47.9%
(06:03) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short right to #85 K.Anthony thrown to KSU22Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+2
44.3%
(05:58) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU32 (#3 C.Young; #58 D.Blachewicz)Similar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
39.5%
(05:15) #40 D.Pippin field goal attempt from 50 yards NO GOOD (H: #43 A.Saul, LS: #45 C.Britton), clock 05:11, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1872% → 74%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
28.2%
(05:06) Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush right for 2 yards loss to the KSU30 (#21 J.Stemler; #44 N.Voorhis)Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
28.6%
(04:29) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short right to #6 W.Harris thrown to KSU35 broken up by #31 D.Echoles Jr.Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+11
30.2%
(04:28) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short middle to #21 C.Wolford caught at KSU39, for 11 yards to the KSU41 (#21 J.Stemler)Similar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-4
26.4%
(03:49) Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush middle for 4 yards loss to the KSU37 (#0 A.Chea; #44 N.Voorhis), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:4544% → 89%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
44.1%
(03:44) Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush right for 0 yards to the KSU37 (#5 T.Aden; #10 C.Williams)Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-2
43.8%
(03:04) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 2 yards to the KSU39 (#4 J.Mathis)Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+10
35.7%
(02:23) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short middle to #85 K.Anthony caught at KSU35, for 10 yards to the KSU29 (#18 T.Miller)Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+29
89.2%
(01:58) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #85 K.Anthony caught at KSU27, for 29 yards to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53, 1ST DOWN #40 D.Pippin kick attempt good (H: #43 A.Saul, LS: #45 C.Britton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 23 yds · 1:2626% → 22%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
74.4%
(01:46) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.Martin thrown to BSU19Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
76.1%
(01:33) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #13 A.Banks caught at KSU43, for 9 yards to the KSU48 (#2 M.Gravely Jr.)Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
78.0%
(01:16) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 0 yards to the KSU48 (#31 D.Echoles Jr.)Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+5
80.2%
(00:57) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU47 (#0 A.Chea; #7 A.Whitner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
76.6%
(00:51) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short right to #13 A.Banks thrown to BSU34 QB hurried by #31 D.Echoles Jr.Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
77.5%
(00:48) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short middle to #6 W.Harris caught at BSU45, for 9 yards to the BSU38 (#0 A.Chea)Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
75.0%
(00:19) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete short right to #85 S.Brown thrown to BSU27Similar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
78.2%
(00:18) Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete deep left to #21 C.Wolford thrown to BSU17, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
95.1%
(00:13) Kneel down by Ball St. at BSU36 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:53
(01:58) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #85 K.Anthony caught at KSU27, for 29 yards to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53, 1ST DOWN #40 D.Pippin kick attempt good (H: #43 A.Saul, LS: #45 C.Britton)
+52.5
TD · Q3 4:42
(04:42) Shotgun #25 D.Delaney Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:42, 1ST DOWN #47 W.Hryszko kick attempt good (H: #61 C.Durkin, LS: #41 G.Goodell)
-18.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:38
(03:44) Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush right for 0 yards to the KSU37 (#5 T.Aden; #10 C.Williams)
+17.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com