M-OH
Miami (OH) 20 at Ohio 24
OHIO2025 · Week 11 · Nov 5, 2025 · Peden Stadium
Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
01
OHIO has the ball
+18
02
Blowout context favors the offense
+9
03
Market gave OHIO a 57% pregame chance
−5
04
OHIO leading by 4
+1
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
#38 K.McLaughlin kickoff 65 yards to the Ohio00, Touchback
0.0
Q1 15:00
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short left to #7 C.Hendricks thrown to Ohio30 QB hurried by #20 A.Trick
+2.9
Q1 15:00
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 0 yards to the Ohio25 (#33 J.Kuwatch; #12 C.Hondru)
0.0
Q1 15:00
PENALTY Ohio False Start (#55 J.Jones) 5 yards from Ohio25 to Ohio20. NO PLAY
0.0
Q1 15:00
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Ohio26 (#26 E.Coppess), out of bounds
0.0
Q1 13:29
#42 M.Haines punt 42 yards to the Miami 32 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at Miami 32
-0.1
Q1 13:29
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Miami 40 (#30 C.Christopher)
-3.4
Q1 13:29
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #84 C.Weaver caught at Miami 47, for 14 yards to the Ohio46 (#5 A.Williams Jr.), 1ST DOWN
-1.1
Q1 13:29
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete deep right to #8 K.Perry thrown to Ohio20
-1.4
Q1 13:29
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short right to #0 K.Reynolds caught at Ohio49, for 6 yards to the Ohio40 (#22 J.Thomeson), out of bounds
0.0
Q1 11:10
#34 P.Stainton punt 39 yards to the Ohio01
+0.6
Q1 11:10
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Ohio05 (#12 C.Hondru)
+5.6
Q1 11:10
Timeout , clock 11:10
0.0
Q1 11:10
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Ohio10 (#12 C.Hondru)
0.0
Q1 11:10
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Ohio11 (#1 E.Blakey; #8 K.Beasley), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q1 11:10
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Ohio17 (#12 C.Hondru; #3 M.McCain)
0.0
Q1 11:10
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short left to #85 M.Williams caught at Ohio23, for 8 yards to the Ohio25 (#24 M.Yharbrough), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q1 11:10
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Ohio27 (#12 C.Hondru; #22 B.Jobe)
0.0
Q1 11:10
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Ohio32 (#12 C.Hondru; #33 J.Kuwatch)
0.0
Q1 11:10
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush left for 2 yards gain to the Ohio34 (#1 E.Blakey; #12 C.Hondru)
0.0
Q1 6:09
#42 M.Haines punt 34 yards to the Miami 32
-0.7
Q1 6:09
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush right for 4 yards gain to the Miami 36 (#12 J.Crable)
-3.4
Q1 6:09
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #0 K.Reynolds caught at Miami 31, for 4 yards to the Miami 40 (#22 J.Thomeson)
-0.2
Q1 6:09
Shotgun #1 D.Finn sacked for loss of 3 yards to the Miami 37 (#27 J.Fries, #30 C.Christopher)
-0.9
Q1 3:59
#34 P.Stainton punt 38 yards to the Ohio25 fair catch by #7 C.Hendricks at Ohio25
+0.9
Q1 3:59
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short left to #11 R.Harris II thrown to Ohio30
+4.0
Q1 3:59
Timeout , clock 03:59
0.0
Q1 3:59
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush right for 4 yards gain to the Ohio29 (#12 C.Hondru; #32 J.Schott)
0.0
Q1 3:59
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short middle to #7 C.Hendricks caught at Ohio40, for 14 yards to the Ohio43 (#24 M.Yharbrough), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q1 3:59
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short left to #11 R.Harris II caught at Ohio49, for 14 yards to the Miami 43 (#33 J.Kuwatch), 1ST DOWN
+1.1
Q1 3:59
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short right to #19 D.Dorwart caught at Miami 38, for 5 yards to the Miami 38 (#17 K.Martin)
+1.3
Q1 1:00
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Miami 21 (#12 J.Crable; #30 C.Christopher)
-6.5
Q1 1:00
Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Miami 27 (#30 C.Christopher)
0.0
Q1 0:00
End of 1st quarter.
-2.7
Q2 0:00
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Miami 28 (#30 C.Christopher; #15 A.Luqman)
+0.9
Q2 14:10
#34 P.Stainton punt 48 yards to the Ohio24 fair catch by #7 C.Hendricks at Ohio24 PENALTY Miami Illegal Formation (#1 E.Blakey) 5 yards from Ohio24 to Ohio29
+1.7
Q3 15:00
#39 D.Dellenbach kickoff 62 yards to the Miami 03, out of bounds at Miami 03
+5.1
Q3 15:00
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete deep middle to #8 K.Perry thrown to Ohio20
-6.8
Q3 15:00
Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Miami 39 (#2 D.Walker; #27 J.Fries)
0.0
Q3 15:00
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #8 K.Perry caught at Ohio49, for 13 yards to the Ohio48 (#20 K.Bannister), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
-1.1
Q3 15:00
Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Ohio45 (#27 J.Fries; #5 A.Williams Jr.)
-1.4
Q3 15:00
Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush left for 2 yards gain to the Ohio43 (#9 M.Mack II), out of bounds
0.0
Q3 15:00
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete short left thrown to Ohio30
-0.1
Q3 11:53
#34 P.Stainton punt 31 yards to the Ohio12 fair catch by #7 C.Hendricks at Ohio12
+0.8
Q3 11:53
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Ohio16 (#3 M.McCain; #33 J.Kuwatch)
+8.7
Q3 11:53
Timeout , clock 11:53
-8.0
Q3 11:53
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short middle to #6 D.Brune thrown to Ohio15 QB hurried by #33 J.Kuwatch and #94 J.Lukusa
+8.0
Q3 11:53
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short left to #7 C.Hendricks caught at Ohio19, for 18 yards to the Ohio34 (#1 E.Blakey; #6 A.Walker Jr.), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q3 11:53
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short right to #7 C.Hendricks thrown to Ohio39 QB hurried by #52 N.Washington
0.0
Q3 10:22
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro sacked for loss of 2 yards to the Ohio36 (#12 C.Hondru), fumble by #13 P.Navarro recovered by Miami #12 C.Hondru at Ohio36, End Of Play
0.0
Q3 10:22
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush left for 1 yard gain to the Ohio35 (#22 J.Thomeson; #44 N.Dukes)
-9.5
Q3 10:22
Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush right for 6 yards gain to the Ohio29 (#30 C.Christopher)
0.0
Q3 8:15
#31 D.Dzioban field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell), clock 08:15
-6.2
Q3 8:15
#38 K.McLaughlin kickoff 65 yards to the Ohio00, Touchback
+1.2
Q3 8:15
Timeout , clock 08:15
0.0
Q3 8:15
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short left to #11 R.Harris II caught at Ohio30, for 9 yards to the Ohio34 (#21 C.Toney; #33 J.Kuwatch)
+4.5
Q3 8:15
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short right to #7 C.Hendricks caught at Ohio41, for 8 yards to the Ohio42 (#99 O.Alexander), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q3 8:15
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush left for 11 yards gain to the Miami 47 (#1 E.Blakey), 1ST DOWN
+0.6
Q3 8:15
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush right for 3 yards gain to the Miami 44 (#20 A.Trick; #99 O.Alexander)
+1.2
Q3 8:15
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short right to #85 M.Williams caught at Miami 40, for 15 yards to the Miami 29 (#33 J.Kuwatch), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q3 8:15
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short left thrown to Miami 24 QB hurried by #12 C.Hondru
+1.0
Q3 8:15
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush left for 7 yards gain to the Miami 22 (#8 K.Beasley), out of bounds
0.0
Q3 4:37
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 22 yards gain to the Miami 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:37, 1ST DOWN #39 D.Dellenbach kick attempt good (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #46 N.Hemer)
+20.5
Q3 4:28
#39 D.Dellenbach kickoff 59 yards to the Miami 06 #10 L.Billups-Williams return 34 yards to the Miami 40 (#40 N.Riegle; #22 J.Thomeson)
-1.4
Q3 4:37
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #0 K.Reynolds caught at Ohio34, for 0 yards to the Ohio29 (#2 D.Walker)
-8.1
Q3 4:37
PENALTY Miami Delay Of Game 5 yards from Miami 40 to Miami 35. NO PLAY
+2.0
Q3 4:37
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete short middle to #86 B.Shane thrown to Miami 35 broken up by #27 J.Fries
+0.9
Q3 4:37
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete deep right to #8 K.Perry thrown to Ohio27 broken up by #7 T.Pearson PENALTY Ohio Pass Interference (#7 T.Pearson) 15 yards from Miami 35 to Miami 50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
0.0
Q3 4:37
Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush left for 2 yards loss to the Miami 48 (#9 M.Mack II) PENALTY Miami Holding (#72 K.Manu) 10 yards from Miami 50 to Miami 40. NO PLAY
-2.3
Q3 4:37
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short right to #8 K.Perry caught at Miami 46, for 5 yards to the Miami 45 (#2 D.Walker)
+1.4
Q3 4:37
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #84 C.Weaver caught at Ohio41, for 14 yards to the Ohio41 (#5 A.Williams Jr.)
-0.8
Q3 4:37
Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 0 yards to the Ohio41 (#22 J.Thomeson)
-0.9
Q3 4:37
Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Ohio39 (#27 J.Fries; #30 C.Christopher), 1ST DOWN
+0.8
Q3 4:37
Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Ohio32 (#12 J.Crable; #30 C.Christopher)
-1.0
Q3 4:37
Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Ohio29 (#97 A.Mitchell; #30 C.Christopher), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q3 0:00
End of 3rd quarter.
+5.1
Q4 14:19
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete short left thrown to Ohio00 QB hurried by #10 P.Odjugo and #44 N.Dukes
-2.8
Q4 14:19
Timeout Miami (OH), clock 14:19
+0.2
Q4 14:19
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #30 J.Ringer caught at Ohio06, for 1 yard to the Ohio04 (#7 T.Pearson), out of bounds
0.0
Q4 13:29
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short middle to #18 B.Isom caught at Ohio00, for 4 yards to the Ohio00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:29 #31 D.Dzioban kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell)
-25.8
Q4 13:15
#38 K.McLaughlin kickoff 62 yards to the Ohio03 #5 S.Bangura return 97 yards to the Miami 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:15 #39 D.Dellenbach kick attempt good (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #46 N.Hemer)
+28.6
Q4 13:29
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #84 C.Weaver caught at Ohio24, for 18 yards to the Ohio11 (#7 T.Pearson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Ohio Personal Foul (#15 A.Luqman) 6 yards from Ohio11 to Ohio05, 1ST DOWN
-28.6
Q4 13:15
#39 D.Dellenbach kickoff 54 yards to the Miami 11, out of bounds at Miami 11
+34.6
Q4 13:15
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Miami 40 (#27 J.Fries; #12 J.Crable)
-6.1
Q4 13:15
Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 21 yards gain to the Ohio39 (#7 T.Pearson; #12 J.Crable), 1ST DOWN
-0.6
Q4 13:15
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short right to #30 J.Ringer caught at Ohio39, for 11 yards to the Ohio28 (#24 C.Hollobaugh), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
-2.2
Q4 13:15
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short right to #30 J.Ringer caught at Ohio28, for 2 yards to the Ohio26, out of bounds at Ohio26
0.0
Q4 13:15
Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush right for 1 yard gain to the Ohio25 (#27 J.Fries)
0.0
Q4 13:15
Shotgun #1 D.Finn sacked for loss of 2 yards to the Ohio27 (#16 J.Marsh)
0.0
Q4 9:29
Kam Perry 27 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)
-29.6
Q4 9:29
#38 K.McLaughlin kickoff 45 yards to the Ohio20 fair catch by #85 M.Williams at Ohio20
+1.1
Q4 9:29
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short left to #11 R.Harris II caught at Ohio31, for 6 yards to the Ohio31 (#24 M.Yharbrough), out of bounds
+7.2
Q4 9:29
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short right to #7 C.Hendricks thrown to Ohio36
0.0
Q4 9:29
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Ohio36 (#3 M.McCain; #26 E.Coppess), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q4 9:29
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Ohio40 (#12 C.Hondru; #94 J.Lukusa)
0.0
Q4 9:29
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short right to #7 C.Hendricks thrown to Ohio47 broken up by #8 K.Beasley
+0.6
Q4 9:29
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short left thrown to Ohio45 QB hurried by #1 E.Blakey
-0.2
Q4 7:18
#42 M.Haines punt 35 yards to the Miami 25, out of bounds at Miami 25
0.0
Q4 7:18
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Reynolds rush left for 1 yard gain to the Miami 26 (#30 C.Christopher; #20 K.Bannister) PENALTY Miami Holding (#18 B.Isom) 10 yards from Miami 25 to Miami 15. NO PLAY
-8.9
Q4 7:18
Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Miami 24 (#22 J.Thomeson; #44 N.Dukes)
0.0
Q4 7:18
Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Miami 30 (#2 D.Walker)
0.0
Q4 7:18
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete short left to #18 B.Isom thrown to Miami 30 broken up by #24 C.Hollobaugh
0.0
Q4 5:19
#34 P.Stainton punt 50 yards to the Ohio20 #7 C.Hendricks return 5 yards to the Ohio25 (#59 H.Powell; #12 C.Hondru)
-2.3
Q4 5:19
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush right for 15 yards gain to the Ohio40 (#92 R.Andrews; #8 K.Beasley), 1ST DOWN
+9.6
Q4 5:19
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Ohio42 (#33 J.Kuwatch)
+0.6
Q4 5:19
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Miami 48 (#26 E.Coppess) PENALTY Ohio Holding (#60 T.Allen) 10 yards from Ohio46 to Ohio36. NO PLAY
-0.2
Q4 5:19
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro sacked for loss of 10 yards to the Ohio26 (#12 C.Hondru) PENALTY Miami Face Mask (#20 A.Trick) 15 yards from Ohio36 to Miami 49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
-0.4
Q4 5:19
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass incomplete short left to #5 S.Bangura thrown to Miami 45
+1.8
Q4 2:15
Rodney Harris II 49 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)
+42.5
Q4 2:08
#39 D.Dellenbach kickoff 61 yards to the Miami 04 #0 K.Reynolds return 15 yards to the Miami 19 (#37 B.Guffey)
-0.3
Q4 2:15
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short right to #86 J.Bruno caught at Ohio42, for 4 yards to the Ohio46, out of bounds at Ohio46
+0.3
Q4 2:15
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete deep left to #18 B.Isom caught at Miami 46, for 27 yards to the Miami 46 QB hurried by #12 J.Crable (#5 A.Williams Jr.), 1ST DOWN
-8.3
Q4 1:51
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass intercepted by #22 J.Thomeson at Miami 49, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Interception". CALL UPHELD
+0.1
Q4 1:58
Timeout , clock 01:58
-3.2
Q4 1:58
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush right for 7 yards gain to the Miami 42 (#94 J.Lukusa)
+12.1
Q4 1:47
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 13 yards gain to the Miami 29 (#3 M.McCain; #12 C.Hondru), 1ST DOWN
+0.8
Q4 1:47
Timeout Miami (OH), clock 01:47
-12.1
Q4 1:47
Kneel down by #13 P.Navarro at Miami 32 for loss of 3 yards
+12.1
Q4 1:08
Kneel down by #13 P.Navarro at Miami 35 for loss of 3 yards
+2.7
Q4 1:08
Timeout Miami (OH), clock 01:08
-7.9
Q4 1:08
Kneel down by #13 P.Navarro at Miami 38 for loss of 3 yards
+7.9
Q4 0:00
End of 4th quarter.
+0.9
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:15
Rodney Harris II 49 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)
+42.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 13:15
#39 D.Dellenbach kickoff 54 yards to the Miami 11, out of bounds at Miami 11
+34.6
TD · Q4 9:29
Kam Perry 27 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)
-29.6