Try the model
CMU

Central Michigan 21 at Western Michigan 24

WMU
2025 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025 · Waldo Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+10.3WMU 42.1%(09:01) #20 P.Domschke field goalattempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #25R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd), clock09:01AWAY 21 - HOME 17 · Q4 9:01
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:01 · (09:01) #20 P.Domschke field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd), clock 09:01
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Pregame prior+2.6Home team on offense−5.0Garbage-time factor−5.3Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:23: (07:35) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #20 L.Lewis caught at CMU36, for 77 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:23, 1ST DOWN #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt) — CMU win probability +11.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:43: (08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:43, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd) — WMU win probability +16.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:53: (14:58) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon pass complete deep left to #3 T.Davis caught at WMU02, for 33 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:53, 1ST DOWN #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt) — CMU win probability +26.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:08: (02:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #0 T.Williams caught at CMU00, for 7 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:08, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd) — WMU win probability +48.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:48: (01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU14 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski) — WMU win probability +14.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:26WMU 4th & 16 at WMU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:24CMU 4th & 1 at WMU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%−0.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:36WMU 4th & 12 at WMU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:43WMU 4th & 21 at WMU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−2.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:04CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:37WMU 4th & 2 at CMU 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−9.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:03CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:01WMU 4th & 10 at CMU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−2.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−11.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:00CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:31WMU 4th & 1 at CMU 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%−0.9
    84% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−16.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:08WMU 4th & 5 at CMU 7, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.9 ptsWent for it · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.2%−5.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−17.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:31CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:43WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:23CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:43WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:53CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:08WMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:1867% → 67%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.4%
(14:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #0 T.Williams caught at WMU22, for 7 yards to the WMU32 (#15 C.Spann)Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
67.4%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 15 yards gain to the WMU47 (#1 D.Cochran), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-6
67.4%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry sacked for loss of 6 yards to the WMU41 (#56 K.Demma)Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+3
67.2%
(13:01) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #0 T.Williams caught at WMU41, for 3 yards to the WMU44 (#1 D.Cochran)Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 13
OWN 44
-4
67.1%
(12:23) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry sacked for loss of 8 yards to the WMU36 (#1 D.Cochran, #40 L.Brown)Similar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 21
OWN 36
+5
66.8%
(11:35) #25 R.Millmore punt 30 yards to the CMU34 PENALTY CMU Running Into The Kicker (#7 E.Conoran) 5 yards from WMU36 to WMU41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
66.8%
(11:26) #25 R.Millmore punt 32 yards to the CMU27 fair catch by #15 C.Spann at CMU27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
16 plays · 73 yds · 8:3633% → 40%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
66.9%
(11:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #20 L.Lewis caught at CMU42, for 19 yards to the CMU46 (#1 J.Franklin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
66.4%
(10:39) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #20 L.Lewis caught at WMU42, for 13 yards to the WMU41 (#8 J.Sims), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
66.3%
(09:55) #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU40 (#10 S.Saipaia; #42 W.Gerig)Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
66.1%
(09:14) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 0 yards to the WMU40 (#47 D.Moon)Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+5
65.9%
(08:33) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short right to #19 T.McIntosh thrown to WMU22 PENALTY WMU Offside (#11 N.Tucker) 5 yards from WMU40 to WMU35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+1
65.9%
(08:27) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU34 (#10 S.Saipaia; #9 J.Camden)Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+8
66.1%
(07:43) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short left to #3 T.Davis thrown to WMU22, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WMU Pass Interference (#1 J.Franklin) 8 yards from WMU34 to WMU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
65.2%
(07:30) #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #88 H.Dryden caught at WMU21, for 5 yards to the WMU21 (#3 T.Hallock)Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+2
65.1%
(07:00) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU19 (#47 D.Moon; #9 J.Camden)Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+2
65.3%
(06:14) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU17 (#0 M.Al-Garawi; #11 N.Tucker)Similar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+2
65.6%
(05:33) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU15 (#47 D.Moon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
64.6%
(04:44) Shotgun #2 J.Labas rush left for 4 yards gain to the WMU11 (#1 J.Franklin; #99 R.McGraw)Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+6
64.4%
(04:09) #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short right to #8 D.Temple thrown to WMU04 PENALTY WMU Roughing The Passer (#42 W.Gerig) 6 yards from WMU11 to WMU05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
64.3%
(04:04) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU02 (#11 N.Tucker)Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+1
64.1%
(03:22) Shotgun #2 J.Labas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU01 (#11 N.Tucker)Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.6%
(02:31) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:31 #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:4061% → 59%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
60.9%
(02:16) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 7 yards gain to the WMU34 (#17 M.Blackwell; #1 D.Cochran) PENALTY WMU Holding (#73 Z.Vaughan) 10 yards from WMU27 to WMU17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+6
60.4%
(01:54) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short middle to #0 T.Williams caught at WMU21, for 6 yards to the WMU23 (#40 L.Brown; #12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+2
60.2%
(01:25) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU25 (#97 M.Heldman; #85 J.Douglas)Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
59.3%
(00:46) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short left to #0 T.Williams thrown to WMU34Similar
Q1 0:36
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
58.9%
(00:36) #25 R.Millmore punt 37 yards to the CMU38 fair catch by #15 C.Spann at CMU38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:4342% → 43%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
58.5%
(00:34) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 0 yards to the CMU38 (#8 J.Sims; #20 K.Fisher)Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
58.1%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #19 T.McIntosh caught at CMU49, for 11 yards to the CMU49 (#18 M.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
57.3%
(14:15) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU49 (#91 M.Tyler)Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+2
56.8%
(13:38) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU47 (#9 J.Camden)Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 6
OPP 47
-12
56.6%
(12:58) Shotgun #2 J.Labas sacked for loss of 12 yards to the CMU41 (#11 N.Tucker), fumble by #2 J.Labas recovered by WMU #99 R.McGraw at CMU41, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 41 yds · 4:5360% → 66%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
60.2%
(12:51) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #1 C.Leary caught at CMU47, for 10 yards to the CMU31 (#4 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
60.8%
(12:18) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush right for 3 yards gain to the CMU28 (#6 K.Carroll; #40 L.Brown)Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+11
60.6%
(11:39) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush left for 11 yards gain to the CMU17 (#40 L.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
60.3%
(11:06) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU15 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-1
60.0%
(10:19) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 1 yard loss to the CMU16 (#2 E.Rikard)Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+6
58.2%
(09:38) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short middle to #86 B.Bosma caught at CMU10, for 6 yards to the CMU10 (#2 E.Rikard; #15 C.Spann)Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+5
56.2%
(09:02) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short middle to #15 C.Conley thrown to CMU05 PENALTY CMU Personal Foul (#3 B.Deasfernandes) 5 yards from CMU10 to CMU05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
58.3%
(08:58) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU01 (#85 J.Douglas; #98 J.Decker)Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.3%
(08:16) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 0 yards to the CMU01 (#98 J.Decker; #3 B.Deasfernandes)Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.4%
(07:45) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:43 PENALTY WMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#86 B.Bosma) 15 yards from CMU00 to CMU03 #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 77 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
52.4%
(07:35) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #20 L.Lewis caught at CMU36, for 77 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:23, 1ST DOWN #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:2752% → 49%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+12
52.0%
(07:18) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short middle to #82 B.Brooks caught at WMU15, for 12 yards to the WMU16 (#17 M.Blackwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
52.3%
(06:50) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #0 T.Williams caught at WMU31, for 15 yards to the WMU31, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+26
52.4%
(06:00) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 26 yards gain to the CMU43 (#17 M.Blackwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-15
54.6%
(05:14) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry sacked for loss of 15 yards to the WMU42 (#4 J.Jackson), fumble by #12 B.Lowry recovered by WMU #72 G.Dabo at WMU42, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 25
OWN 42
0
51.6%
(04:34) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete deep left to #1 C.Leary thrown to CMU36Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 25
OWN 42
+4
50.5%
(04:34) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WMU46 (#40 L.Brown)Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 21
OWN 46
0
49.1%
(03:43) #25 R.Millmore punt 46 yards to the CMU08 fair catch by #15 C.Spann at CMU08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2950% → 51%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
50.3%
(03:41) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU11 (#0 M.Al-Garawi)Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+1
48.2%
(02:47) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush left for 1 yard gain to the CMU12 (#8 J.Sims; #47 D.Moon)Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+1
48.5%
(02:16) Shotgun #2 J.Labas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU13 (#11 N.Tucker; #10 S.Saipaia)Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
48.9%
(02:05) #18 D.Duley punt 39 yards to the WMU48 fair catch by #86 B.Bosma at WMU48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9FUMBLE
10 plays · 47 yds · 1:1952% → 51%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
51.9%
(02:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 6 yards gain to the CMU46 (#15 C.Spann; #1 D.Cochran)Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+3
52.6%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU43 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+4
52.2%
(01:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU39 (#4 J.Calip), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
52.4%
(01:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #0 T.Williams caught at CMU34, for 5 yards to the CMU34, out of bounds at CMU34Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+30
53.8%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete deep right to #82 B.Brooks caught at CMU04, for 30 yards to the CMU04 (#3 B.Deasfernandes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
53.9%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 0 yards to the CMU04 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
53.9%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short middle to #86 B.Bosma thrown to CMU00Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
52.4%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU02 (#15 C.Spann; #12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
50.7%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 3 yards loss to the CMU05 fumbled by #12 B.Lowry at CMU01 forced by #1 D.Cochran recovered by CMU #98 J.Decker at CMU05, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:2553% → 53%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
46.7%
(00:32) Kneel down by #2 J.Labas at CMU04 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 11
OWN 4
-1
46.7%
(00:05) Kneel down by #2 J.Labas at CMU03 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4955% → 55%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
45.3%
(14:57) #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short right to #88 H.Dryden thrown to CMU40 broken up by #3 T.HallockSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
45.7%
(14:50) #2 J.Labas pass incomplete short right to #19 T.McIntosh thrown to CMU43 broken up by #18 M.DavisSimilar
Q3 14:36
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+6
46.7%
(14:40) Shotgun #2 J.Labas rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CMU41 (#6 J.Pope)Similar
Q3 14:03
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
45.4%
(14:03) #18 D.Duley punt 24 yards to the WMU35, out of bounds at WMU35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 5:0548% → 67%
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
48.1%
(14:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #2 M.Brescia caught at WMU35, for 7 yards to the WMU42 (#1 D.Cochran)Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
50.4%
(13:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU43 (#1 D.Cochran)Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
49.0%
(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WMU47 (#2 E.Rikard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
49.2%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #0 T.Williams thrown to CMU38Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
48.7%
(12:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #18 A.Chenault caught at WMU47, for 11 yards to the CMU42 (#15 C.Spann; #4 J.Calip), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
49.7%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #18 A.Chenault caught at CMU44, for 14 yards to the CMU28 (#33 V.Earl), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
50.9%
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU25 (#97 M.Heldman)Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+5
50.6%
(10:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Williams rush left for 5 yards gain to the CMU20 (#6 K.Carroll)Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+8
48.6%
(09:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CMU12 (#85 J.Douglas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
50.1%
(09:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU09 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski; #97 M.Heldman)Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
66.9%
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:43, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 8:4441% → 71%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.0%
(08:43) #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU29 (#0 M.Al-Garawi; #9 J.Camden)Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
58.0%
(08:03) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CMU35 (#8 J.Sims), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
57.8%
(07:30) #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CMU41 (#47 D.Moon)Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
55.3%
(06:57) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU44 (#18 M.Davis; #10 S.Saipaia)Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
55.4%
(06:20) Shotgun #2 J.Labas rush left for 1 yard gain to the CMU45 (#9 J.Camden), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CMU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#59 B.Ploucha) 15 yards from CMU45 to CMU30Similar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
57.8%
(05:55) #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU31 (#11 N.Tucker)Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+13
57.3%
(05:14) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #8 D.Temple caught at CMU44, for 13 yards to the CMU44 (#8 J.Sims), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
54.3%
(04:35) Shotgun #5 N.Biggins rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU45 (#10 S.Saipaia; #99 R.McGraw)Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-1
54.4%
(03:53) Shotgun #2 J.Labas rush left for 1 yard loss to the CMU44 (#10 S.Saipaia; #99 R.McGraw)Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+12
56.2%
(03:08) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #3 T.Davis caught at WMU46, for 12 yards to the WMU44 (#18 M.Davis; #8 J.Sims), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WMU Holding declinedSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
52.6%
(02:37) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #20 L.Lewis caught at WMU47, for 2 yards to the WMU42 (#18 M.Davis). The previous play is under automatic review - "Targeting". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (02:37) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short right to #20 L.Lewis caught at WMU47, for 2 yards to the WMU42 (#18 M.Davis) PENALTY WMU Targeting (#18 M.Davis) 15 yards from WMU42 to WMU27, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+6
52.4%
(02:00) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WMU36 (#6 J.Pope)Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+3
52.2%
(01:41) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU33 (#0 M.Al-Garawi; #64 R.Stewart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
50.5%
(01:00) Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU32 (#8 J.Sims; #64 R.Stewart)Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-1
50.4%
(00:23) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WMU33 (#64 R.Stewart)Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+33
29.4%
(14:58) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon pass complete deep left to #3 T.Davis caught at WMU02, for 33 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:53, 1ST DOWN #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 5:3135% → 42%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
35.2%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #17 M.Dieudonne caught at WMU23, for 1 yard loss to the WMU24 (#1 D.Cochran)Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
34.8%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WMU29 (#98 J.Decker; #97 M.Heldman)Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
33.2%
(13:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete deep left to #82 B.Brooks thrown to WMU50 PENALTY CMU Holding (#6 K.Carroll) 10 yards from WMU29 to WMU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
35.7%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete deep right to #18 A.Chenault caught at CMU38, for 23 yards to the CMU38, End Of Play PENALTY WMU Holding (#51 J.Hofer) 10 yards from WMU39 to WMU29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+5
33.5%
(13:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #0 T.Williams caught at WMU24, for 5 yards to the WMU34 (#4 J.Jackson) PENALTY CMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#15 C.Spann) 15 yards from WMU34 to WMU49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
37.5%
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 12 yards gain to the CMU39 (#17 M.Blackwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
38.3%
(12:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 8 yards gain to the CMU31 (#6 K.Carroll)Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+4
40.0%
(11:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 4 yards gain to the CMU27 (#1 D.Cochran), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
39.6%
PENALTY WMU Delay Of Game (#12 B.Lowry) 5 yards from CMU27 to CMU32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
36.0%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 0 yards to the CMU32 (#97 M.Heldman; #40 L.Brown)Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 15
OPP 32
0
34.6%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #82 B.Brooks thrown to CMU30Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+5
31.8%
(09:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #86 B.Bosma caught at CMU29, for 5 yards to the CMU27 (#17 M.Blackwell; #40 L.Brown)Similar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+46
42.1%
(09:01) #20 P.Domschke field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd), clock 09:01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5466% → 68%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.4%
(09:01) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU28 (#91 M.Tyler; #10 S.Saipaia)Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
32.3%
(08:22) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush left for 4 yards gain to the CMU32 (#9 J.Camden; #64 R.Stewart)Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
30.7%
(07:44) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush left for 0 yards to the CMU32 (#3 T.Hallock)Similar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
31.7%
(07:00) #18 D.Duley punt 38 yards to the WMU30 fair catch by #86 B.Bosma at WMU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:4739% → 86%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
38.9%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 17 yards gain to the WMU47 (#2 E.Rikard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
43.0%
(06:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #1 C.Leary caught at WMU47, for 8 yards to the CMU45 (#98 J.Decker)Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+22
44.3%
(06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 22 yards gain to the CMU23 (#4 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
46.4%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU22 (#4 J.Jackson; #12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+5
42.9%
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CMU17 (#6 K.Carroll)Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+3
39.9%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU14 (#97 M.Heldman)Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
36.8%
(03:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU12 (#1 D.Cochran), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
40.5%
(03:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short left to #0 T.Williams thrown to CMU00Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
40.4%
(03:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CMU07 (#40 L.Brown)Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
37.3%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short left to #82 B.Brooks thrown to CMU00Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+7
85.5%
(02:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #0 T.Williams caught at CMU00, for 7 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:08, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17INT
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:0125% → 25%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
74.6%
(02:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #22 B.Townsend caught at CMU20, for 1 yard loss to the CMU24 (#9 J.Camden; #8 J.Sims) PENALTY CMU Holding (#76 M.Koivisto) 10 yards from CMU25 to CMU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
75.1%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass intercepted by #91 M.Tyler at CMU16, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18END OF GAME
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:5990% → 94%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
89.7%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU14 (#12 J.Kwiatkowski)Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
90.0%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 4 yards gain to the CMU10 (#1 D.Cochran)Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+6
90.3%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 6 yards gain to the CMU04 (#4 J.Calip), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
93.7%
(00:59) Kneel down by #12 B.Lowry at CMU05 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
94.0%
(00:49) Kneel down by #12 B.Lowry at CMU06 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:08
(02:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #0 T.Williams caught at CMU00, for 7 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:08, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)
+48.4
TD · Q4 14:53
(14:58) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon pass complete deep left to #3 T.Davis caught at WMU02, for 33 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:53, 1ST DOWN #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt)
-26.6
TD · Q3 8:43
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:43, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)
+16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com