Try the model
BUF

Buffalo 28 at Bowling Green 3

BGSU
2025 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:54: (14:59) Shotgun #0 V.Snow rush left for 2 yards gain to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:54 #91 J.Howes kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #57 C.Selee) — BUF win probability +5.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:09: T. Roberson pass to J. Gathings for 5 yds, for a TD — BUF win probability +9.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:06: (00:06) Kneel down by Bowling Green at BGSU24 for loss of 1 yard — BGSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: #91 J.Howes kickoff 47 yards to the BGSU18 fair catch by #44 L.Kemp at BGSU18 — BUF win probability +6.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:25: #19 J.Henderson punt 47 yards to the UB35 #0 V.Snow return 65 yards to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:25 #91 J.Howes kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #57 C.Selee) — BUF win probability +12.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 12:12BGSU 4th & 1 at BUF 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:51BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:59BGSU 4th & 5 at BUF 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:00BGSU 4th & 1 at BUF 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−2.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:56BUF 4th & 3 at BGSU 48, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:23BGSU 4th & 3 at BGSU 15, down 14
    Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:16BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:11BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:56BUF 4th & 8 at midfield, up 14
    Close callPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:43BGSU 4th & 17 at BGSU 3, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−3.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:18BUF 4th & 5 at BGSU 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:25BGSU 4th & 17 at BGSU 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:26BGSU 4th & 6 at BUF 48, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:35BGSU 4th & 3 at BGSU 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:52BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 18, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:01BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 22, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:04BUF 4th & 1 at BGSU 24, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:33BGSU 4th & 15 at BUF 33, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:43BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 25, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:17BUF 4th & 3 at BGSU 33, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:14BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 41, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:57BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:54BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:09BUF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:25BUF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 0:4652% → 52%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
48.1%
(14:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #3 N.McMillan caught at UB31, for 5 yards to the UB31 (#8 J.McClendon)Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+15
48.1%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete deep right to #3 N.McMillan thrown to BGSU35 broken up by #8 J.McClendon PENALTY BGSU Pass Interference (#8 J.McClendon) 15 yards from UB31 to UB46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
48.1%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short middle to #3 N.McMillan caught at BGSU41, for 13 yards to the BGSU41 (#8 J.McClendon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
47.8%
(14:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 41 yards gain to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:57, 1ST DOWN #91 J.Howes kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #57 C.Selee)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2748% → 48%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
48.0%
(13:46) No Huddle #14 A.Dendy rush left for 6 yards gain to the UB42 (#39 M.Gonser)Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+2
48.0%
(13:12) #14 A.Dendy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UB40 (#9 K.Bradley)Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
47.9%
(12:58) Shotgun #14 A.Dendy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UB39 (#39 M.Gonser; #18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
47.7%
(12:14) #89 B.Cleaver rush middle for 0 yards to the UB39 (#0 K.Stewart; #39 M.Gonser), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1253% → 53%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
47.3%
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #3 N.McMillan caught at UB44, for 6 yards to the UB45 (#12 C.Marshall; #4 G.Lampron)Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
47.2%
(11:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UB47 (#15 P.EstoEsta; #0 K.Pascal)Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-2
47.1%
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UB45 (#4 G.Lampron; #38 D.Kelly)Similar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
47.1%
(10:54) #42 D.Drennan punt 40 yards to the BGSU15, out of bounds at BGSU15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4DOWNS
14 plays · 49 yds · 7:4547% → 46%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
47.3%
(10:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne sacked for loss of 5 yards to the BGSU10 (#11 D.Morgan)Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 15
OWN 10
+9
47.2%
(10:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Dendy rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BGSU19 (#0 K.Stewart)Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+6
46.8%
(09:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass complete short right to #25 M.Porter caught at BGSU15, for 6 yards to the BGSU25 (#18 D.Crawford), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.8%
(08:55) No Huddle #14 A.Dendy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BGSU29 (#6 M.Greer; #2 R.Murdock)Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
46.8%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Dendy rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BGSU35 (#39 M.Gonser), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
46.7%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #86 J.Scoby rush left for 9 yards gain to the BGSU44 (#2 R.Murdock). The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down prior to losing the ball". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (07:30) No Huddle #86 J.Scoby rush left for 0 yards to the BGSU35 fumbled by #86 J.Scoby at BGSU45 forced by #6 M.Greer recovered by UB #15 S.Brown at, End Of Play)Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
47.2%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Dendy rush right for 4 yards gain to the BGSU48 (#2 R.Murdock; #18 D.Crawford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
47.1%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne sacked for loss of 1 yard to the BGSU47 (#99 C.Evans)Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+7
46.7%
(05:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Dendy rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UB46 (#2 R.Murdock; #13 D.Ballard)Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+5
47.1%
(05:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass complete short right to #25 M.Porter caught at UB50, for 5 yards to the UB41 (#2 R.Murdock; #15 S.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
47.2%
(04:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass incomplete short right to #7 J.Johnson thrown to UB44Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
47.2%
(04:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 M.Porter rush left for 2 yards gain to the UB39 (#39 M.Gonser)Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+3
46.9%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass complete short middle to #2 R.Garcia II caught at UB36, for 3 yards to the UB36 (#2 R.Murdock)Similar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
46.3%
(03:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass incomplete short left to #7 J.Johnson thrown to UB21, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:5855% → 63%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
44.6%
(02:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UB40 (#4 G.Lampron; #17 I.Thomison)Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
43.9%
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UB41 (#17 I.Thomison; #12 C.Marshall)Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+12
43.7%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #3 N.McMillan caught at UB46, for 12 yards to the BGSU47 (#8 J.McClendon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
43.2%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short middle to #25 T.Shelton, Jr. caught at BGSU45, for 6 yards to the BGSU41 (#4 G.Lampron)Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+39
43.0%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete deep right to #3 N.McMillan caught at BGSU06, for 39 yards to the BGSU02 (#8 J.McClendon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
37.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #0 V.Snow rush left for 2 yards gain to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:54 #91 J.Howes kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #57 C.Selee)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:3939% → 38%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.1%
(14:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Dendy rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BGSU28 (#9 K.Bradley)Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
38.9%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass incomplete short right to #5 B.Ridley thrown to BGSU32Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+18
38.1%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass complete short left to #7 J.Johnson caught at BGSU46, for 18 yards to the BGSU46 (#9 K.Bradley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
39.2%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 M.Porter rush left for 4 yards gain to the BGSU50 (#39 M.Gonser)Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 6
50
0
39.0%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass incomplete short left to #5 B.Ridley thrown to UB41Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 6
50
+5
38.7%
(12:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.McMillian rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UB45 (#0 K.Stewart)Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
37.5%
(12:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Dendy rush middle for 0 yards to the UB45 (#6 M.Greer; #97 J.Poyser), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5766% → 65%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
34.5%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete deep left to #3 N.McMillan thrown to BGSU15 broken up by #10 J.JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
34.6%
(11:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short left to #3 N.McMillan thrown to BGSU43Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+7
34.8%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #5 A.Henderson caught at UB46, for 7 yards to the BGSU48 (#1 K.Washington; #4 G.Lampron)Similar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
34.7%
(11:04) #42 D.Drennan punt 40 yards to the BGSU08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:2035% → 33%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
35.2%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Dendy rush left for 4 yards loss to the BGSU04 (#15 S.Brown; #2 R.Murdock)Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+2
34.3%
(10:07) No Huddle #14 A.Dendy rush right for 2 yards gain to the BGSU06 (#90 G.Wolo)Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+9
33.5%
(09:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass complete short left to #7 J.Johnson caught at BGSU11, for 9 yards to the BGSU15 (#15 S.Brown)Similar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
33.2%
(08:30) #19 J.Henderson punt 52 yards to the UB33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5767% → 68%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
33.3%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UB44 (#0 K.Pascal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
31.3%
(07:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush right for 1 yard loss to the UB43 (#4 G.Lampron)Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
31.5%
PENALTY UB False Start (#73 H.Tabansi) 5 yards from UB43 to UB38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
31.6%
(07:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short left to #0 V.Snow thrown to UB38 broken up by #54 D.GarnerSimilar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+8
31.8%
(07:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short left to #0 V.Snow caught at UB35, for 8 yards to the UB46 (#12 C.Marshall), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
31.8%
(06:24) #42 D.Drennan punt 54 yards to the BGSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5632% → 30%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
31.7%
(06:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.McMillian rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU21 (#2 R.Murdock; #11 D.Morgan)Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-6
31.3%
(05:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne sacked for loss of 6 yards to the BGSU15 (#2 R.Murdock)Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+9
30.3%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass complete short middle to #7 J.Johnson caught at BGSU12, for 9 yards to the BGSU24 (#2 R.Murdock)Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
30.1%
(04:17) #19 J.Henderson punt 28 yards to the UB48, out of bounds at UB48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0571% → 70%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
28.9%
(04:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush left for 1 yard gain to the UB49 (#12 C.Marshall)Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
28.8%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete deep right to #0 V.Snow thrown to BGSU25Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+1
29.0%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson rush left for 1 yard gain to the UB50 (#4 G.Lampron)Similar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 8
50
0
29.7%
(02:59) #42 D.Drennan punt 40 yards to the BGSU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:0629% → 28%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
29.3%
(02:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.McMillian rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BGSU12 (#12 M.White)Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
29.0%
(02:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass incomplete short right to #7 J.Johnson thrown to BGSU15Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 8
OWN 12
-9
27.5%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne sacked for loss of 9 yards to the BGSU03 (#12 M.White)Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 17
OWN 3
0
27.5%
(01:43) #19 J.Henderson punt 50 yards to the UB47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2074% → 74%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
25.8%
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #8 J.Gathings caught at BGSU49, for 5 yards to the BGSU48 (#8 J.McClendon), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
25.6%
(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Gathings thrown to BGSU39 QB hurried by #5 E.George and #38 D.KellySimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
25.7%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short left to #8 J.Gathings thrown to BGSU43 broken up by #8 J.McClendonSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
26.5%
(01:22) #42 D.Drennan punt 48 yards to the BGSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · -14 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
28.2%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Roberts rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BGSU26 fumbled by #0 K.Roberts at BGSU20 forced by #2 R.Murdock recovered by UB #8 J.McNair at BGSU26 #8 J.McNair return 20 yards to the BGSU06 (#54 B.Bolyn), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5275% → 89%
Q2 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
24.7%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short left thrown to BGSU00Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
24.6%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush right for 1 yard gain to the BGSU05 (#8 J.McClendon)Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.1%
T. Roberson pass to J. Gathings for 5 yds, for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
20.4%
(00:06) Kneel down by Bowling Green at BGSU24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3518% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass incomplete deep right to #5 B.Ridley thrown to UB50Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass complete short right to #5 B.Ridley caught at BGSU22, for 2 yards to the BGSU27 (#1 M.Cooper), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-9
17.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne sacked for loss of 9 yards to the BGSU18 (#13 D.Ballard)Similar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+65
5.5%
#19 J.Henderson punt 47 yards to the UB35 #0 V.Snow return 65 yards to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:25 #91 J.Howes kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #57 C.Selee)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:456% → 5%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
5.8%
(13:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.McMillian rush right for 11 yards gain to the BGSU48 (#6 M.Greer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
5.8%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.McMillian rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UB48 (#2 R.Murdock; #0 K.Stewart)Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
5.1%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Dendy rush middle for 0 yards to the UB48 (#99 C.Evans; #11 D.Morgan)Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
4.7%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass incomplete short middle to #5 B.Ridley thrown to UB44 QB hurried by #0 K.StewartSimilar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
4.6%
(11:29) #19 J.Henderson punt 48 yards to the UB00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19INT
10 plays · 54 yds · 4:4395% → 97%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
4.7%
(11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UB25 (#0 K.Pascal; #18 A.Hines III)Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
4.5%
(10:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush left for 6 yards gain to the UB31 (#38 D.Kelly), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
4.3%
(10:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 15 yards gain to the UB46 (#15 P.EstoEsta; #2 M.Cannon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
3.7%
PENALTY UB Delay Of Game 5 yards from UB46 to UB41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+7
3.5%
(09:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #3 N.McMillan caught at UB46, for 7 yards to the UB48 (#10 J.Johnson)Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+4
3.3%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the BGSU48 (#38 D.Kelly; #18 A.Hines III)Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+17
3.2%
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short middle to #3 N.McMillan caught at BGSU34, for 17 yards to the BGSU31 (#15 P.EstoEsta), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
2.8%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Gathings thrown to BGSU18 broken up by #15 P.EstoEstaSimilar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
2.8%
(06:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BGSU26 (#18 A.Hines III; #15 P.EstoEsta)Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
2.8%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass intercepted by #15 P.EstoEsta at BGSU14 broken up by #10 J.Johnson, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:583% → 2%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
3.2%
(06:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass incomplete short right to #7 J.Johnson thrown to BGSU20 broken up by #99 C.EvansSimilar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+9
3.0%
(06:31) No Huddle #14 A.Dendy rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BGSU23 (#8 J.McNair; #36 K.Blackwell)Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+4
3.3%
(05:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Dendy rush right for 4 yards gain to the BGSU27 (#39 M.Gonser), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
2.8%
(05:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Pyne pass incomplete short middle to #82 E.Jacon-Duffy thrown to BGSU45 broken up by #6 M.GreerSimilar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
2.6%
(05:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Dendy rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BGSU35 (#39 M.Gonser)Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 2
OWN 35
-1
2.4%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Dendy rush right for 1 yard loss to the BGSU34 (#15 S.Brown)Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
1.8%
(03:50) #19 J.Henderson punt 48 yards to the UB18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:3298% → 98%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
2.5%
(03:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UB17 (#11 C.Acheampong)Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+4
2.5%
(02:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush right for 4 yards gain to the UB21 (#38 D.Kelly; #12 C.Marshall)Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+10
2.4%
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short left to #0 V.Snow caught at UB32, for 12 yards to the UB33 (#2 M.Cannon), out of bounds PENALTY UB Holding (#54 J.Carrington III) 10 yards from UB21 to UB11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 17
OWN 11
+7
2.4%
(01:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush right for 7 yards gain to the UB18 (#4 G.Lampron; #12 C.Marshall)Similar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 10
OWN 18
-5
2.4%
(01:00) #42 D.Drennan punt 57 yards to the BGSU25 #5 B.Ridley return for loss of 5 yards to the BGSU20 (#16 J.Keough; #0 V.Snow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:431% → 1%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
1.3%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Dendy rush left for 2 yards gain to the BGSU22 (#2 R.Murdock; #12 M.White)Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
1.2%
(00:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm pass incomplete deep middle to #1 A.Middleton thrown to UB40Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
1.1%
(00:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm pass incomplete short left to #7 J.Johnson thrown to BGSU31 broken up by #15 S.BrownSimilar
Q3 0:01
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
1.1%
(00:00) #19 J.Henderson punt 40 yards to the UB38 fair catch by #0 V.Snow at UB38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23MISSED FG
5 plays · 38 yds · 2:4899% → 99%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+29
0.9%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 29 yards gain to the BGSU33 (#8 J.McClendon), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
0.8%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush right for 5 yards gain to the BGSU28 (#54 D.Garner; #4 G.Lampron)Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+4
0.7%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the BGSU24 (#15 P.EstoEsta; #0 K.Pascal)Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
0.6%
(12:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Shelton, Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU24 (#4 G.Lampron; #54 D.Garner)Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+42
0.7%
(12:06) #91 J.Howes field goal attempt from 42 yards NO GOOD (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #57 C.Selee), clock 12:04, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:281% → 0%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
0.8%
(12:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Edmonds rush right for 15 yards gain to the BGSU39 fumbled by #23 C.Edmonds at BGSU37 forced by #7 S.Brown, out of bounds at BGSU39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
0.8%
(11:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Edmonds rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU39 (#3 O.Bridges; #6 M.Greer)Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
0.7%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm pass complete short right to #7 J.Johnson caught at BGSU45, for 11 yards to the BGSU50 (#3 O.Bridges), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
50
0
0.7%
(10:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm pass incomplete short right to #18 W.Sharp thrown to UB36Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 10
50
+22
0.7%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm pass complete deep left to #7 J.Johnson caught at UB30, for 22 yards to the UB28 (#16 J.Keough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
0.8%
(10:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm pass incomplete short left to #7 J.Johnson thrown to UB25 broken up by #0 K.StewartSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
0.7%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Edmonds rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UB26 (#97 J.Poyser)Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 8
OPP 26
-7
0.7%
(09:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UB33 (#11 D.Morgan)Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 15
OPP 33
+51
0.4%
(08:37) #14 J.Kleather field goal attempt from 51 yards GOOD (H: #85 T.Kenner, LS: #47 G.Carlson), clock 08:33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3699% → 100%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
0.6%
(08:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson rush left for 0 yards to the UB24 (#23 M.Bradley)Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
0.5%
(07:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Gathings thrown to UB28 QB hurried by #4 G.LampronSimilar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+1
0.5%
(07:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush right for 1 yard gain to the UB25 (#8 J.McClendon)Similar
Q4 6:43
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+8
0.4%
(06:47) #42 D.Drennan punt 57 yards to the BGSU18 #5 B.Ridley return 8 yards to the BGSU26 (#85 A.Schnackenberg)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 26INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:500% → 0%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
0.4%
(06:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm pass complete short left to #18 W.Sharp caught at BGSU32, for 6 yards to the BGSU32 (#3 O.Bridges)Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+5
0.3%
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 P.Wimberly rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BGSU37 (#12 M.White; #11 D.Morgan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-11
0.3%
(05:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm pass intercepted by #3 O.Bridges at UB49 #3 O.Bridges return 11 yards to the BGSU40 (#6 R.Stocksdale)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
0.3%
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BGSU36 (#48 Q.Lewis)Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-3
0.3%
(04:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 3 yards loss to the BGSU39 (#4 G.Lampron)Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+6
0.3%
(04:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short left to #3 N.McMillan caught at BGSU34, for 6 yards to the BGSU33 (#10 J.Johnson)Similar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
0.3%
(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass incomplete deep right to #8 J.Gathings thrown to BGSU00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 28END OF GAME
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:490% → 0%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
0.3%
(03:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Edmonds rush middle for 2 yards loss to the BGSU31 (#40 W.Clark; #55 T.Souza)Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+9
0.2%
(02:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm pass complete short middle to #86 J.Scoby caught at BGSU33, for 9 yards to the BGSU40 (#16 J.Keough)Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+1
0.2%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Edmonds rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU41 (#41 J.Capo)Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 2
OWN 41
+3
0.2%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Edmonds rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BGSU44 (#41 J.Capo; #17 S.Riser-Pressley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.2%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm pass incomplete short right to #17 T.Johnson thrown to UB40 broken up by #14 M.CrawfordSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+24
0.2%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm rush middle for 24 yards gain to the UB32 (#22 R.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-40
0.2%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm pass incomplete deep left to #18 W.Sharp thrown to UB10, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UB Pass Interference (#14 M.Crawford) 15 yards from UB30 to UB17, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
0.3%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm pass incomplete short right to #17 T.Johnson thrown to UB00Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
0.2%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm rush middle for 0 yards to the UB17 (#39 M.Gonser)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:25
#19 J.Henderson punt 47 yards to the UB35 #0 V.Snow return 65 yards to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:25 #91 J.Howes kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #57 C.Selee)
-12.1
TD · Q2 0:09
T. Roberson pass to J. Gathings for 5 yds, for a TD
-9.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:06
(00:06) Kneel down by Bowling Green at BGSU24 for loss of 1 yard
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com