Try the model
BALL

Ball State 7 at Northern Illinois 21

NIU
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Huskie Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDEnd of GamePUNT+6NIU 64.9%(00:44) #36 J.Ference punt 33 yards tothe BALL47 fair catch by #1 J.Lewis atBALL47AWAY 7 - HOME 7 · Q2 0:38
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:38 · (00:44) #36 J.Ference punt 33 yards to the BALL47 fair catch by #1 J.Lewis at BALL47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior+11.3Home team on offense+0.9Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:48: Timeout Ball State, clock 00:48 — BALL win probability +8.3 pts (now 43%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:42: (00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 4 yards loss to the NIU20 (#44 N.Voorhis) — NIU win probability +7.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. PUNT · Q2 0:38: (00:44) #36 J.Ference punt 33 yards to the BALL47 fair catch by #1 J.Lewis at BALL47 — NIU win probability +6.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q3 7:26: (07:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst rush right for 7 yards gain to the BALL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:26 #60 A.Glass kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #44 R.Pedro) — NIU win probability +12.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:54: (13:59) #60 A.Glass kickoff 44 yards to the BALL21 #3 E.Weatherly return 16 yards to the BALL37 (#45 T.Johnson Jr.), out of bounds PENALTY BALL Holding 10 yards from BALL30 to BALL20 — NIU win probability +6.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:49BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:57BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:55NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:56BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:07NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.2%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:04BALL 4th & 5 at NIU 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:32BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:38NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:13NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.3%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:24NIU 4th & 12 at NIU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−3.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:26BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 26, down 14
    Close callPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:15NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:43BALL 4th & 15 at NIU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−0.4
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:0028% → 28%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
71.9%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush right for 2 yards gain to the BALL16 (#9 D.Reynolds)Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 8
OWN 16
-7
71.7%
(14:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 7 yards to the BALL09 (#17 F.Maciorowski), fumble by #1 K.Kelly recovered by BALL #1 K.Kelly at BALL09, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 15
OWN 9
+7
71.8%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BALL16 (#32 Q.Urwiler; #1 T.Myles)Similar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 8
OWN 16
0
71.7%
(12:55) #43 A.Saul punt 44 yards to the NIU40 fair catch by #6 D.Rogers at NIU40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 1:0172% → 73%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
71.7%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 2 yards gain to the NIU42 (#18 J.Wiegold)Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+5
71.7%
(12:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush left for 5 yards gain to the NIU47 (#15 D.Fields; #7 A.Whitner)Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+53
72.5%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 53 yards gain to the BALL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:41, 1ST DOWN #60 A.Glass kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #44 R.Pedro)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3928% → 27%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.3%
(11:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short right to #5 Q.Magwood thrown to BALL39Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.4%
(11:36) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush left for 5 yards gain to the BALL30 (#32 Q.Urwiler), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
72.5%
(10:53) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush left for 4 yards gain to the BALL34 (#32 Q.Urwiler; #22 J.Beeler)Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
72.6%
(10:04) #43 A.Saul punt 39 yards to the NIU27 #6 D.Rogers return 1 yard to the NIU28, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5373% → 73%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
72.8%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the NIU29 (#31 D.Echoles Jr.; #56 A.Glenn)Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+7
72.8%
(09:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst pass complete short left to #6 D.Rogers caught at NIU34, for 7 yards to the NIU36 (#1 J.Lewis), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
72.9%
(08:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush right for 0 yards to the NIU36 (#22 J.Beebe; #18 J.Wiegold)Similar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
72.7%
(08:06) #36 J.Ference punt 49 yards to the BALL15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5327% → 27%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
72.9%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BALL17 (#32 Q.Urwiler)Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
73.0%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete deep right to #11 I.Thacker thrown to NIU41Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
73.3%
(07:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short left to #5 Q.Magwood thrown to BALL30 broken up by #9 D.ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
73.4%
(07:03) #43 A.Saul punt 33 yards to the BALL50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6INT
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:0574% → 74%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
50
+2
73.7%
(06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BALL48 (#49 J.Thomas; #22 J.Beebe)Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+9
73.7%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst pass complete short right to #80 J.Appleget caught at BALL47, for 9 yards to the BALL39 (#42 L.Starks; #5 R.Pearson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
73.9%
(06:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 9 yards gain to the BALL30 (#16 M.McCargo)Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+4
74.0%
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BALL26 (#47 D.Hughes; #16 M.McCargo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
74.0%
(05:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush left for 0 yards to the BALL26 (#6 C.Johnson)Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+11
74.1%
(04:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst pass complete short right to #7 G.Givens III caught at BALL16, for 11 yards to the BALL15 (#5 R.Pearson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
74.2%
(04:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush left for 6 yards gain to the BALL09 (#10 J.Harmon)Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 4
OPP 9
0
74.3%
(04:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst pass incomplete short left to #0 L.Bryant thrown to BALL00Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+5
74.1%
(04:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BALL04 (#6 C.Johnson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BALL Illegal Substitution declinedSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
74.4%
(03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst pass intercepted by #1 J.Lewis at BALL00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:0827% → 34%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
73.3%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush left for 1 yard gain to the BALL21 (#6 D.Dixon; #33 T.Powell)Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
73.4%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #2 T.Robinson caught at BALL36, for 15 yards to the BALL36 (#9 D.Reynolds), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
72.7%
(02:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush left for 6 yards gain to the BALL42 (#33 T.Powell)Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+4
72.3%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BALL46 (#32 Q.Urwiler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
72.3%
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush left for 8 yards gain to the NIU46 (#9 D.Reynolds)Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+16
71.9%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short middle to #3 E.Weatherly caught at NIU32, for 16 yards to the NIU30 (#23 M.Pretto), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
71.4%
(00:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush left for 1 yard gain to the NIU29 (#10 M.Hensley)Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+5
71.5%
PENALTY NIU Offside 5 yards from NIU29 to NIU24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+3
71.3%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NIU21 (#0 A.Gulley, Jr; #10 M.Hensley)Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+19
71.9%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short middle to #4 T.Horton caught at NIU26, for 19 yards to the NIU02 (#4 M.Jammeh), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
71.2%
(14:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush right for 1 yard gain to the NIU01 (#23 M.Pretto; #17 F.Maciorowski)Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.8%
(13:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #89 D.Cassens caught at NIU00, for 1 yard to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:30 #98 C.Holmer kick attempt good (H: #92 C.Stumbaugh, LS: #45 C.Britton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:0969% → 68%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
68.8%
(13:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 9 yards gain to the NIU30 (#18 J.Wiegold)Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 1
OWN 30
0
69.6%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush right for 0 yards to the NIU30 (#18 J.Wiegold)Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
68.7%
(12:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 4 yards gain to the NIU34 (#4 E.McClain; #14 T.Adewoyin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
68.8%
(12:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NIU39 (#6 C.Johnson; #7 A.Whitner)Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+2
69.8%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NIU41 (#0 A.Chea; #6 C.Johnson)Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+1
69.1%
(10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 1 yard gain to the NIU42 (#47 D.Hughes)Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
68.1%
(10:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst pass incomplete short left to #7 G.Givens III thrown to BALL39 broken up by #20 W.Yates, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:5735% → 36%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
65.1%
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NIU39 (#32 Q.Urwiler)Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
64.7%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #9 Q.Ashley caught at NIU42, for 0 yards to the NIU39 (#17 F.Maciorowski; #90 R.Jean) PENALTY BALL Personal Foul 15 yards from NIU39 to BALL46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 22
OWN 39
+6
66.2%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NIU48 (#32 Q.Urwiler)Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 17
OPP 48
+15
66.2%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete deep left to #88 D.Hamilton thrown to NIU23 PENALTY NIU Pass Interference 15 yards from NIU48 to NIU33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
63.7%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete deep left to #10 J.McDougle thrown to NIU11Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
63.8%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush right for 4 yards gain to the NIU29 (#32 Q.Urwiler; #6 D.Dixon)Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+1
63.3%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NIU28 (#11 J.Williams)Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+45
64.3%
(07:08) #98 C.Holmer field goal attempt from 45 yards NO GOOD (H: #92 C.Stumbaugh, LS: #45 C.Britton), clock 07:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10FUMBLE
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:0668% → 69%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
67.7%
(07:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush right for 0 yards to the NIU28 (#22 J.Beebe)Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
67.4%
(06:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush left for 3 yards gain to the NIU31 (#6 C.Johnson; #93 S.Hudson)Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+36
66.8%
(06:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst rush right for 36 yards gain to the BALL33 (#16 M.McCargo), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
70.1%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush left for 6 yards gain to the BALL27 (#16 M.McCargo; #31 D.Echoles Jr.)Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+4
70.1%
(05:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 4 yards gain to the BALL23 (#44 N.Voorhis; #15 D.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
70.1%
(04:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst pass incomplete short left to #3 R.Taylor Jr. thrown to BALL06 broken up by #20 W.YatesSimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+1
70.0%
(04:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush left for 1 yard gain to the BALL22 (#33 D.Conley; #15 D.Fields)Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+4
69.1%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BALL18 fumbled by #45 T.Johnson Jr. at BALL19 forced by #22 J.Beebe recovered by BALL #42 L.Starks at BALL18, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:1236% → 36%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
63.8%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BALL20 (#17 F.Maciorowski)Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+12
63.8%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush right for 12 yards gain to the BALL32 (#4 M.Jammeh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
62.6%
(02:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BALL34 (#6 D.Dixon; #32 Q.Urwiler)Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
62.5%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush left for 0 yards (-1) to the BALL34 (#32 Q.Urwiler), out of bounds PENALTY BALL Holding 10 yards from BALL34 to BALL24Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 18
OWN 24
+11
63.1%
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 11 yards gain to the BALL35 (#22 J.Beeler)Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
62.5%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete deep left to #10 J.McDougle thrown to NIU35Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+6
63.9%
(01:41) #43 A.Saul punt 53 yards to the NIU12 #6 D.Rogers return 6 yards to the NIU18 (#4 E.McClain)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:4666% → 65%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
65.6%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU22 (#44 N.Voorhis)Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+2
65.6%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NIU24 (#42 L.Starks)Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 4
OWN 24
-4
64.9%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 4 yards loss to the NIU20 (#44 N.Voorhis)Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
64.9%
(00:44) #36 J.Ference punt 33 yards to the BALL47 fair catch by #1 J.Lewis at BALL47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:2639% → 37%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
60.6%
(00:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BALL50 (#11 J.Williams)Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 7
50
0
59.5%
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short right thrown to NIU43Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 7
50
+5
60.6%
PENALTY BALL Delay Of Game 5 yards from BALL50 to BALL45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+15
62.9%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush right for 15 yards gain to the NIU40 (#32 Q.Urwiler), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14TD
17 plays · 78 yds · 7:2366% → 81%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
65.9%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 5 yards gain to the NIU27 (#0 A.Chea)Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
66.2%
(14:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NIU29 (#0 A.Chea; #31 D.Echoles Jr.)Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+2
64.9%
(13:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst pass complete short middle to #0 L.Bryant caught at NIU31, for 2 yards to the NIU31 (#18 J.Wiegold)Similar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+2
64.4%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NIU33 (#33 D.Conley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
65.6%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 9 yards gain to the NIU42 (#7 A.Whitner)Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+10
67.3%
(12:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst pass incomplete short left thrown to BALL50 QB hurried by #31 D.Echoles Jr. PENALTY NIU Holding 10 yards from NIU42 to NIU32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+2
64.6%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 2 yards gain to the NIU34 (#7 A.Whitner), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+22
63.7%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst pass complete short left to #6 D.Rogers caught at NIU40, for 22 yards to the BALL44 (#5 R.Pearson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
68.1%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 3 yards gain to the BALL41 (#0 A.Chea)Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
68.0%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BALL38 (#0 A.Chea)Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+18
67.6%
(10:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 18 yards gain to the BALL20 (#1 J.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
68.8%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 5 yards gain to the BALL15 (#42 L.Starks)Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+6
68.8%
(08:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BALL09 (#2 M.Gravely Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
68.7%
(08:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush right for 2 yards gain to the BALL07 (#5 R.Pearson)Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
68.7%
(07:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst pass incomplete short right thrown to BALL00Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
81.4%
(07:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst rush right for 7 yards gain to the BALL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:26 #60 A.Glass kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #44 R.Pedro)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15INT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:3025% → 25%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
74.7%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush left for 7 yards gain to the BALL47 (#10 M.Hensley)Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+3
73.5%
(06:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BALL50 (#1 T.Myles; #4 M.Jammeh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
50
0
73.2%
(06:00) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short left to #9 Q.Ashley thrown to BALL46Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 10
50
+4
74.3%
(05:57) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU46 (#10 M.Hensley)Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+8
73.8%
(05:16) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #9 Q.Ashley caught at NIU41, for 8 yards to the NIU38 QB hurried by #97 R.Williams (#9 D.Reynolds), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
73.9%
(04:39) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete deep left to #5 Q.Magwood thrown to NIU15Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
73.9%
(04:35) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush right for 0 yards to the NIU38 (#97 R.Williams)Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-2
75.5%
(03:54) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass intercepted by #26 J.Finley IV at NIU05 #26 J.Finley IV return 2 yards to the NIU07 (#3 E.Weatherly), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:1480% → 82%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
79.8%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NIU12 (#15 D.Fields)Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+4
80.2%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU16 (#22 J.Beebe)Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+2
79.2%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush right for 2 yards gain to the NIU18 (#15 D.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
81.6%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NIU29 (#16 M.McCargo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
81.8%
(02:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NIU34 (#2 M.Gravely Jr.)Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
82.5%
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 0 yards to the NIU34 (#6 C.Johnson; #93 S.Hudson)Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 5
OWN 34
-7
83.1%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst sacked for loss of 7 yards to the NIU27 (#44 N.Voorhis)Similar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 12
OWN 27
-4
81.8%
(00:33) #36 J.Ference punt 36 yards to the BALL37 muffed by #1 J.Lewis at BALL37 recovered by NIU #23 M.Pretto at BALL33, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:239% → 8%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
91.5%
(13:53) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush left for 1 yard loss to the BALL19 (#32 Q.Urwiler)Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+7
91.7%
(13:18) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush left for 7 yards gain to the BALL26 (#33 T.Powell)Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
91.4%
(12:38) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short middle to #88 D.Hamilton thrown to BALL33 broken up by #22 J.BeelerSimilar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
92.1%
(12:31) #43 A.Saul punt 45 yards to the NIU29 fair catch by #6 D.Rogers at NIU29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0194% → 94%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
94.4%
(12:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 2 yards loss to the NIU27 (#6 C.Johnson)Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
94.4%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 0 yards to the NIU27 (#6 C.Johnson)Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+5
94.6%
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush right for 5 yards gain to the NIU32 (#22 J.Beebe; #44 N.Voorhis)Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+3
94.4%
(10:24) #36 J.Ference punt 48 yards to the BALL20 #20 W.Yates return 3 yards to the BALL23 (#17 F.Maciorowski)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19INT
13 plays · 73 yds · 6:097% → 3%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
92.8%
(10:13) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #5 Q.Magwood caught at BALL41, for 21 yards to the BALL44 (#26 J.Finley IV), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
92.0%
(09:31) Shotgun #3 E.Weatherly rush right for 5 yards gain to the BALL49 (#9 D.Reynolds; #97 R.Williams)Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+2
92.0%
(08:56) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NIU49 (#9 D.Reynolds; #22 J.Beeler)Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+6
92.3%
(08:17) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NIU43 (#32 Q.Urwiler; #4 M.Jammeh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
92.3%
(07:40) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NIU35 (#9 D.Reynolds)Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
92.0%
(07:08) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short right thrown to NIU25 QB hurried by #97 R.WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+2
92.6%
(07:00) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush right for 2 yards gain to the NIU33 (#10 M.Hensley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
92.8%
(06:20) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #84 T.Hoover caught at NIU30, for 9 yards to the NIU24 (#32 Q.Urwiler)Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+19
92.6%
(05:58) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush left for 19 yards gain to the NIU05 (#4 M.Jammeh), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
92.7%
(05:23) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush right for 1 yard gain to the NIU04 (#16 J.Thomas)Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-9
93.0%
(04:47) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 9 yards to the NIU13 (#16 J.Thomas)Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
97.0%
(03:57) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass intercepted by #22 J.Beeler at NIU03, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:0598% → 98%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
97.6%
(03:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU07 (#22 J.Beebe)Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+2
97.9%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush right for 2 yards gain to the NIU09 (#0 A.Chea)Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+11
98.0%
(02:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NIU20 (#22 J.Beebe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
98.4%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NIU21 (#0 A.Chea)Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+17
98.4%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 17 yards gain to the NIU38 fumbled by #10 C.Wright at NIU33 forced by #4 E.McClain recovered by BALL #42 L.Starks at NIU38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21END OF GAME
11 plays · 37 yds · 1:393% → 3%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.1%
(01:44) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short right to #6 K.Gross thrown to NIU34 broken up by #9 D.ReynoldsSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-5
97.1%
(01:41) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 5 yards to the NIU43 (#16 J.Thomas)Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 15
OPP 43
0
97.7%
(01:17) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush left for 0 yards to the NIU43 (#32 Q.Urwiler)Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 15
OPP 43
+25
97.7%
(00:47) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete deep middle to #10 J.McDougle caught at NIU18, for 25 yards to the NIU18, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
96.8%
(00:37) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 5 yards to the NIU23 (#10 M.Hensley)Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+6
96.9%
(00:22) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #2 T.Robinson caught at NIU17, for 6 yards to the NIU17 (#26 J.Finley IV), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+16
97.3%
(00:16) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #2 T.Robinson caught at NIU01, for 16 yards to the NIU01, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.7%
(00:08) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush right for 0 yards to the NIU01 (#4 M.Jammeh)Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.7%
(00:03) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush left for 0 yards to the NIU01 (#10 M.Hensley)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:26
(07:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst rush right for 7 yards gain to the BALL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:26 #60 A.Glass kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #44 R.Pedro)
+12.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:48
Timeout Ball State, clock 00:48
-8.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:42
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 4 yards loss to the NIU20 (#44 N.Voorhis)
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com