NIU
Northern Illinois 21 at Ohio 48
OHIO2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · N. Poulos takes a knee
01
OHIO has the ball
+26
02
OHIO leading by 27
+9
03
Blowout context favors the offense
+2
04
Market gave OHIO a 78% pregame chance
+1
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
NIU · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q1 15:00
David Dellenbach kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 15:00
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 25
-1.4
Q1 15:00
Josh Holst pass incomplete to DeAree Rogers
0.0
Q1 15:00
Josh Holst pass complete to Gary Givens for 3 yds to the NIU 28
0.0
Q1 13:26
Jake Ference punt for 38 yds , Chase Hendricks returns for 52 yds to the NIU 14
-1.0
OHIO · Drive 2TD · 5 plays · 14 yds
Q1 13:26
Parker Navarro run for 12 yds to the NIU 2 for a 1ST down
+4.0
Q1 12:47
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds for a TD (David Dellenbach KICK)
+8.2
Q1 12:47
David Dellenbach kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Ohio Penalty, Defensive Offside (Duncan Brune)
-10.1
Q1 12:47
Timeout Ohio, clock 12:47
-3.6
Q1 12:47
David Dellenbach kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Ohio Penalty, Defensive Offside (Duncan Brune)
+2.7
NIU · Drive 3PUNT · 7 plays · 12 yds
Q1 12:47
Lazaro Rogers run for 9 yds to the NIU 39
+8.2
Q1 12:47
Josh Holst run for 2 yds to the NIU 41 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q1 12:47
Telly Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 40
-0.2
Q1 12:47
Josh Holst pass complete to Jake Appleget for 2 yds to the NIU 42
+0.2
Q1 12:47
Josh Holst pass incomplete to DeAree Rogers
-0.2
Q1 10:18
Jake Ference punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chase Hendricks at the OHIO 19
+1.6
Q1 10:18
Jake Ference punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chase Hendricks at the OHIO 9
0.0
OHIO · Drive 4TD · 14 plays · 91 yds
Q1 10:18
Timeout Ohio, clock 10:18
+1.7
Q1 10:18
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 12 yds to the OHIO 21 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:18
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Dom Dorwart
0.0
Q1 10:18
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 11 yds to the OHIO 32 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:18
Sieh Bangura run for 9 yds to the OHIO 41
0.0
Q1 10:18
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 15 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 10:18
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the NIU 41
+0.2
Q1 10:18
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 15 yds to the NIU 26 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q1 10:18
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 10 yds to the NIU 16 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:18
Sieh Bangura run for 5 yds to the NIU 11
0.0
Q1 10:18
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the NIU 9
0.0
Q1 5:03
Parker Navarro run for 9 yds for a TD (David Dellenbach KICK)
+9.0
Q1 5:03
Timeout Ohio, clock 05:03
-11.2
Q1 5:03
David Dellenbach kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Ohio Penalty, Defensive Offside (Pierre Kemeni Jr.)
+1.8
NIU · Drive 5PUNT · 8 plays · 10 yds
Q1 5:03
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the NIU 31
+6.3
Q1 5:03
Josh Holst pass complete to Pierce Oppong for 2 yds to the NIU 33
0.0
Q1 5:03
Chavon Wright run for 9 yds to the NIU 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 5:03
Josh Holst sacked by Jay Crable for a loss of 5 yards to the NIU 37
0.0
Q1 5:03
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 2 yds to the NIU 39
0.0
Q1 5:03
PENALTY NIU False Start (Hron,Landon) 5 yards from NIU39 to NIU34. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q1 5:03
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 6 yds to the NIU 40
0.0
Q1 1:00
Jake Ference punt for 26 yds
-0.2
OHIO · Drive 6TD · 12 plays · 66 yds
Q1 1:00
Duncan Brune run for 1 yd to the OHIO 35
+3.7
Q1 1:00
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Chase Hendricks
0.0
Q1 0:00
Parker Navarro pass complete to Duncan Brune for 10 yds to the OHIO 45 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q2 15:00
Parker Navarro pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 15:00
Duncan Brune run for 9 yds to the NIU 46
0.0
Q2 15:00
Duncan Brune run for 3 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q2 15:00
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 3 yds to the NIU 40
+0.1
Q2 13:31
Timeout Ohio, clock 13:31
+0.1
Q2 13:31
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 30 yds to the NIU 10 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 13:31
Duncan Brune run for 5 yds to the NIU 5 Duncan Brune fumbled, recovered by NIU Davion Weatherspoon
0.0
Q2 12:13
Sieh Bangura run for 5 yds for a TD (David Dellenbach KICK)
+4.0
Q2 12:13
Timeout Ohio, clock 12:13
-8.5
NIU · Drive 7TD · 6 plays · 20 yds
Q2 12:04
David Dellenbach kickoff for 52 yds , Dev'ion Reynolds return for 67 yds to the OHIO 20
+8.6
Q2 12:04
Josh Holst run for 2 yds to the OHIO 18
-0.4
Q2 12:04
Chavon Wright run for 1 yd to the OHIO 17
0.0
Q2 12:04
Josh Holst pass complete to Jake Appleget for 10 yds to the OHIO 7 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 10:08
Devon Akers 7 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Josh Holst Pass to George Dimopoulos for Two-Point Conversion)
-8.1
Q2 10:08
Timeout Ohio, clock 10:08
+8.7
OHIO · Drive 8PUNT · 14 plays · 39 yds
Q2 10:08
Andrew Glass kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-7.9
Q2 10:08
Parker Navarro pass complete to Dom Dorwart for 8 yds to the OHIO 33
+4.0
Q2 10:08
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 8 yds to the OHIO 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 10:08
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the OHIO 43
0.0
Q2 10:08
Sieh Bangura run for 5 yds to the OHIO 48
0.0
Q2 10:08
Parker Navarro run for 4 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q2 10:08
Sieh Bangura run for 6 yds to the NIU 42
+0.1
Q2 10:08
No Huddle-Shotgun Navarro,Parker pass incomplete deep right to Dorwart,Dom thrown to NIU08 broken up by Finley,Jacob PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Finley,Jacob) 15 yards from NIU42 to NIU27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 10:08
Sieh Bangura run for 6 yds Ohio Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Bruno) to the NIU 31
0.0
Q2 5:56
Timeout Ohio, clock 05:56
-0.3
Q2 5:56
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the NIU 29
0.0
Q2 5:56
Parker Navarro pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 5:56
Parker Navarro sacked by Roy Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the NIU 36
-0.1
Q2 4:20
David Dellenbach punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIU 15
-0.1
NIU · Drive 9PUNT · 4 plays · 3 yds
Q2 4:20
Josh Holst run for 1 yd to the NIU 16
-2.9
Q2 4:20
Josh Holst pass complete to Lazaro Rogers for 2 yds to the NIU 18
0.0
Q2 4:20
Josh Holst pass incomplete to DeAree Rogers
0.0
Q2 2:52
Jake Ference punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Chase Hendricks at the OHIO 35
-0.1
OHIO · Drive 10INT · 13 plays · 25 yds
Q2 2:52
Duncan Brune run for 4 yds to the OHIO 39
+3.1
Q2 2:52
Duncan Brune run for 4 yds to the OHIO 43
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Ohio, clock 02:00
-0.1
Q2 2:00
Duncan Brune run for 1 yd to the OHIO 44
0.0
Q2 1:54
Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 01:54
+0.1
Q2 1:54
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the OHIO 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:54
No Huddle-Shotgun Navarro,Parker pass complete deep right to Gossett,Caleb caught at NIU22, for 42 yards to the NIU12 (Harrison,Donte) PENALTY Ohio Holding (Weatherspoon,Davion) 10 yards from Ohio46 to Ohio36. NO PLAY.
+0.3
Q2 1:54
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 21 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:54
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 5 yds to the NIU 38
+0.1
Q2 1:54
PENALTY Ohio False Start 5 yards from NIU38 to NIU43. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 0:45
Timeout Ohio, clock 00:45
0.0
Q2 0:45
Parker Navarro run for 3 yds to the NIU 40
0.0
Q2 0:11
Parker Navarro pass intercepted, touchback. James Finley return for no gain
-0.3
NIU · Drive 11END OF HALF · 2 plays · 25 yds
Q2 0:11
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 12 yds to the NIU 32 for a 1ST down
-3.9
Q2 0:00
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 13 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
OHIO · Drive 12TD · 6 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Andrew Glass kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.4
Q3 15:00
Duncan Brune run for 9 yds to the OHIO 34
+2.8
Q3 15:00
Parker Navarro run for no gain to the OHIO 34
0.0
Q3 13:49
Duncan Brune run for 66 yds for a TD (David Dellenbach PAT MISSED)
+5.4
Q3 13:49
Dorwart,Dom pass attempt Successful PENALTY Ohio Holding (Allen,Trent) 10 yards from NIU03 to NIU13. NO PLAY.
-8.3
Q3 13:49
Timeout Ohio, clock 13:49
-3.0
NIU · Drive 13PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q3 13:43
David Dellenbach kickoff for 47 yds , Triston White return for 26 yds to the NIU 44
+8.6
Q3 13:43
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the NIU 48
-2.0
Q3 13:43
Josh Holst pass incomplete to George Dimopoulos
-0.2
Q3 13:43
Josh Holst pass complete to Chavon Wright for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 47
0.0
Q3 12:30
Jake Ference punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Chase Hendricks at the OHIO 3
+0.2
OHIO · Drive 14TD · 11 plays · 97 yds
Q3 12:30
Timeout Ohio, clock 12:30
+2.5
Q3 12:30
Sieh Bangura run for 49 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 12:30
Duncan Brune run for 2 yds to the NIU 46
0.0
Q3 12:30
Parker Navarro run for 15 yds to the NIU 31 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 12:30
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Rodney Harris II
0.0
Q3 12:30
Sieh Bangura run for 7 yds to the NIU 24
0.0
Q3 12:30
Sieh Bangura run for 12 yds to the NIU 12 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 12:30
Duncan Brune run for 6 yds to the NIU 6
0.0
Q3 12:30
Duncan Brune run for 2 yds to the NIU 4
0.0
Q3 7:40
D. Brune run for 4 yds for a TD (D. Dellenbach KICK)
+2.9
Q3 7:40
Timeout Ohio, clock 07:40
-2.5
NIU · Drive 15TD · 6 plays · 70 yds
Q3 7:34
David Dellenbach kickoff for 57 yds , Elijah Porter return for 22 yds to the NIU 30
+2.5
Q3 7:34
Josh Holst sacked by Joseph Marsh for a loss of 6 yards to the NIU 24
-0.2
Q3 7:34
Josh Holst pass complete to George Dimopoulos for 7 yds to the NIU 31
0.0
Q3 7:34
PENALTY Ohio Offside (Odjugo,Pius) 5 yards from NIU31 to NIU36. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 7:34
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:04
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 50 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-0.5
OHIO · Drive 16TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q3 6:04
Andrew Glass kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q3 6:04
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 9 yds to the OHIO 34
+0.2
Q3 6:04
Sieh Bangura run for 4 yds to the OHIO 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:04
Duncan Brune run for 4 yds to the OHIO 42
0.0
Q3 6:04
Duncan Brune run for 4 yds to the OHIO 46
0.0
Q3 6:04
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 10 yds Chase Hendricks fumbled, recovered by OHIO for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:04
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 5 yds to the NIU 39
0.0
Q3 6:04
Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for 23 yds to the NIU 16 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:04
Duncan Brune run for 2 yds to the NIU 14
0.0
Q3 6:04
Parker Navarro pass complete to Dom Dorwart for 10 yds to the NIU 4 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 0:00
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the NIU 1
+0.4
Q4 14:55
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd for a TD (David Dellenbach KICK)
+0.3
Q4 14:55
Timeout Ohio, clock 14:55
-0.4
NIU · Drive 17TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q4 14:55
David Dellenbach kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.5
Q4 14:55
Josh Holst run for 16 yds to the NIU 41 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q4 14:55
Josh Holst pass incomplete to DeAree Rogers
0.0
Q4 14:55
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 19 yds to the OHIO 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 14:55
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the OHIO 33
0.0
Q4 14:55
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the OHIO 31
0.0
Q4 14:55
Josh Holst run for 8 yds to the OHIO 23 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 14:55
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 22 yds to the OHIO 1 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 12:12
Timeout Ohio, clock 12:12
-0.1
Q4 12:08
Chavon Wright 1 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)
-0.2
Q4 12:08
Timeout Ohio, clock 12:08
+0.6
OHIO · Drive 18DOWNS · 8 plays · 24 yds
Q4 12:07
Andrew Glass kickoff for 13 yds
-2.1
Q4 12:07
PENALTY Ohio False Start (Allen,Trent) 5 yards from NIU48 to Ohio47. NO PLAY.
+1.8
Q4 12:07
Parker Navarro run for 7 yds to the NIU 46
0.0
Q4 12:07
Sieh Bangura run for 15 yds to the NIU 31 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 12:07
Sieh Bangura run for 4 yds to the NIU 27
0.0
Q4 12:07
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the NIU 26
0.0
Q4 12:07
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the NIU 24
0.0
Q4 8:32
Parker Navarro run for no gain to the NIU 24
0.0
NIU · Drive 19FUMBLE RETURN TD · 15 plays · 67 yds
Q4 8:32
Timeout Ohio, clock 08:32
-1.9
Q4 8:32
Josh Holst pass complete to Telly Johnson Jr. for 9 yds to the NIU 33
0.0
Q4 8:32
Josh Holst run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 8:32
Josh Holst pass complete to Gary Givens for 6 yds to the OHIO 44
0.0
Q4 8:32
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 5 yds to the OHIO 39 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 8:32
Josh Holst run for 7 yds to the OHIO 32
-0.1
Q4 8:32
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the OHIO 30
0.0
Q4 8:32
Josh Holst pass complete to George Dimopoulos for 2 yds to the OHIO 28 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 8:32
Josh Holst pass incomplete to George Dimopoulos
0.0
Q4 8:32
Josh Holst run for 2 yds to the OHIO 26
0.0
Q4 8:32
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the OHIO 16 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 8:32
Josh Holst pass complete to George Dimopoulos for no gain to the OHIO 16
0.0
Q4 8:32
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 3 yds to the OHIO 13
0.0
Q4 8:32
Josh Holst pass incomplete to La'Don Bryant
0.0
Q4 2:52
Jalen Thomeson 91 Yd Fumble Return (David Dellenbach Kick)
+1.8
NIU · Drive 20DOWNS · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q4 2:47
David Dellenbach kickoff for 71 yds , Dev'ion Reynolds return for 24 yds to the NIU 33
+0.4
Q4 2:47
Josh Holst pass complete to Gary Givens for 3 yds to the NIU 36
-0.4
Q4 2:47
Josh Holst pass incomplete to DeAree Rogers
0.0
Q4 2:47
Josh Holst pass complete to George Dimopoulos for 2 yds to the NIU 38
0.0
Q4 1:54
Brady Davidson pass incomplete to Telly Johnson Jr.
0.0
OHIO · Drive 21END OF GAME · 8 plays · 12 yds
Q4 1:54
Doe Boyland run for 5 yds to the NIU 33
+0.4
Q4 1:47
Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 01:47
+0.1
Q4 1:47
Doe Boyland run for 4 yds to the NIU 29
0.0
Q4 1:42
Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 01:42
0.0
Q4 1:42
No Huddle-Shotgun Boyland,Dorian rush middle for 0 yards to the NIU29 (McRae,KJ) PENALTY Ohio Illegal Formation 5 yards from NIU29 to NIU34. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 1:42
Doe Boyland run for 10 yds to the NIU 24 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:42
N. Poulos takes a knee
0.0
Q4 0:00
N. Poulos takes a knee
0.0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q1 5:03
Timeout Ohio, clock 05:03
-11.2
KEY PLAY · Q1 12:47
David Dellenbach kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Ohio Penalty, Defensive Offside (Duncan Brune)
-10.1
TD · Q1 5:03
Parker Navarro run for 9 yds for a TD (David Dellenbach KICK)
+9