2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:21 · Emilio Duran punt for 52 yds , Wayne Harris returns for 11 yds to the KENT 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:18: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 58 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +1.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:32: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Ryder Treadway for 11 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +5.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:24: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 21 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +3.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:04: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Javon Brown for 16 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +2.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:25: Eric Williams 19 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Dylan Cunanan Kick) — TOL win probability +1.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 5KENT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 13:24TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snapGo for it93.6%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.7%average punt
- Q1 11:07KENT 4th & 1 at TOL 46, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.2%70% to convertField goal7.0%−0.323% to makePunt7.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 7:33KENT 4th & 4 at TOL 21, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snapGo for it8.8%47% to convertField goalTheir call8.7%−<0.174% to makePunt8.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 5:21TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 30, down 10Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snapGo for it90.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:37KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 49, up 10Close callPunted · 11.6% before the snapGo for it11.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:06KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 38, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snapGo for it10.5%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%average punt
- Q2 12:31TOL 4th & 3 at KENT 10, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snapGo for it88.1%49% to convertField goalTheir call87.9%−0.288% to makePunt86.1%−2.0average punt
- Q2 11:35KENT 4th & 19 at KENT 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snapGo for it10.8%−0.810% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.6%average punt
- Q2 8:38TOL 4th & 7 at KENT 38, tiedClose callPunted · 87.6% before the snapGo for it87.6%37% to convertField goal87.5%−0.238% to makePuntTheir call87.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 4:06KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snapGo for it15.6%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.2%average punt
- Q3 11:57TOL 4th & 14 at KENT 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snapGo for it87.0%−0.719% to convertField goal87.5%−0.234% to makePuntTheir call87.7%average punt
- Q3 7:58KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.4%average punt
- Q3 4:25KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 19, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 0:11KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 40, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 8:19KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 35, down 35Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 14:50KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.1%97% to makeGo for two6.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:18TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.5%97% to makeGo for two89.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:32TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.8%97% to makeGo for two87.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:24TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.6%97% to makeGo for two93.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:04TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:25TOL Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:00TOL Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
95.9%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Cade Wolford for 75 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1296% → 96%
KENTDrive 3FG12 plays · 45 yds · 5:445% → 6%
Q1 11:32
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+8
95.0%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Jay Jay Etheridge for 8 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
94.5%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Terik Mulder for 17 yds to the TOL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
94.4%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun DeShields,Dru pass complete short right to Wolford,Cade caught at TOLEDO23, for 6 yards to the TOLEDO21 (D'Appolonia,Chris) PENALTY KSU Holding (Meadows,Tyler) 10 yards from TOLEDO27 to TOLEDO37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+4
94.2%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Wayne Harris for 4 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 24
OPP 41
+20
94.0%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Zy'aire Fletcher for 20 yds to the TOL 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5594% → 93%
KENTDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:298% → 9%
Q1 4:31
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+10
92.2%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Dashawn Martin for 10 yds to the KENT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+6
91.4%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Cade Wolford for 6 yds to the KENT 49Similar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
91.1%
Charlie Durkin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD4 plays · 89 yds · 1:1091% → 92%
KENTDrive 7PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 0:578% → 8%
Q1 0:25
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-10
91.2%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun DeShields,Dru pass incomplete short right thrown to TOLEDO43 QB hurried by Dunn Jr,Anthony PENALTY KSU Holding (Hopperton,Hunter) 10 yards from KSU48 to KSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
91.8%
Charlie Durkin punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8FG8 plays · 67 yds · 2:2991% → 92%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
91.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 23 yds to the TOL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
91.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for no gain to the TOL 46Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+16
91.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 16 yds to the KENT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
91.6%
Kent State Penalty, Personal Foul (Clinton Robinson) to the KENT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -9 yds · 0:399% → 9%
Q2 11:44
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-12
90.6%
Kent State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Dru DeShields) to the KENT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 2:5091% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11PUNT11 plays · 22 yds · 4:2711% → 14%
Q2 7:44
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+6
88.5%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Wayne Harris for 6 yds to the KENT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-5
85.9%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Fletcher,Zy'Aire) 5 yards from KSU44 to KSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+3
86.3%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Dashawn Martin for 3 yds to the KENT 42Similar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
86.5%
Charlie Durkin punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD12 plays · 81 yds · 3:2588% → 92%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
87.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 15 yds to the TOL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+32
86.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 32 yds to the KENT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
87.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 4 yds to the KENT 27Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+11
87.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 11 yds to the KENT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
92.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Ryder Treadway for 11 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 28 yds · 2:4491% → 89%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
90.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 9 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
91.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacob Petersen for 12 yds to the KENT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-8
90.8%
Toledo Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tucker Gleason) to the KENT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15INT3 plays · 13 yds · 1:0011% → 11%
Q3 10:42
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
88.9%
Dru DeShields pass intercepted Braden Awls return for no gain to the TOL 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD4 plays · 51 yds · 1:0491% → 95%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
90.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 2 yds to the KENT 49Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+11
90.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Kenji Christian for 11 yds to the KENT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
91.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 17 yds to the KENT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
95.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 21 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:186% → 6%
Q3 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
93.7%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Dashawn Martin for 3 yds to the KENT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD4 plays · 57 yds · 1:4295% → 98%
Q3 6:04
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+16
98.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Javon Brown for 16 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19PUNT TD5 plays · -6 yds · 1:342% → 0%
Q3 5:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-8
98.2%
Dru DeShields sacked by Hudson Miller for a loss of 8 yards to the KENT 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 15 yds · 4:070% → 0%
Q3 3:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
99.8%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun DeShields,Dru pass complete short middle to Fletcher,Zy'Aire caught at KSU35, for 15 yards to the KSU48 (McKinstry,Tyler) PENALTY KSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from KSU33 to KSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.8%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Cade Wolford for 6 yds to the KENT 34Similar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
99.8%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Morell,Dustyn) 5 yards from KSU36 to KSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+9
99.9%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Sebastian Brown for 9 yds to the KENT 40Similar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Charlie Durkin punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:00100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Kenji Christian for 10 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+13
99.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne pass complete to Terrell Crosby Jr. for 18 yds for a TD Kent State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Mason Woods) declined (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 8:19
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Charlie Durkin punt for 58 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 2 yds to the TOL 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23END OF GAME16 plays · 85 yds · 8:05100% → 100%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne pass complete to Terrell Crosby Jr. for 21 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne pass complete to Bryson Hammer for 21 yds to the KENT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-5
99.9%
PENALTY TOLEDO False Start (Harder,Jonathan) 5 yards from KSU38 to KSU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 16
OPP 43
+8
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne run for 18 yds Toledo Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryder Treadway) to the KENT 35Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+20
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne pass complete to Sam Lee for 20 yds to the KENT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+7
99.9%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Osborne,Kalieb pass incomplete short right to Braceful,Tashi thrown to KSU00 PENALTY KSU Pass Interference (Boamah,Joel) 7 yards from KSU09 to KSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:32
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Ryder Treadway for 11 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q3 9:24
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 21 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q3 6:04
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Javon Brown for 16 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
+2.9