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BUF

Buffalo 28 at Massachusetts 21

MASS
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:05 · AJ Hairston sacked by Kobe Stewart for a loss of 6 yards to the MASS 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorDefense timeoutsOffense timeoutsHome team on offenseTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:55: Victor Snow 23 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick) — BUF win probability +7.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q3 7:02: Terrance Shelton Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick) — BUF win probability +14.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · Q3 5:37: Max Dowling 77 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris Kick) — MASS win probability +8.3 pts (now 17%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. FG · Q3 0:18: Jack Howes 47 Yd Field Goal — BUF win probability +7.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · Q4 11:08: Dylan Drennan punt for 46 yds — BUF win probability +20.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 9 of 11BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 11:24BUF 4th & 2 at MASS 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:35MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:39BUF 4th & 5 at MASS 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:29MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:27BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:31MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 15, down 3
    Close callPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:07BUF 4th & 3 at MASS 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    77.1%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:29BUF 4th & 5 at MASS 46, down 4
    Close callPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−1.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:53MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:16BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:36MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:58MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:55BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−2.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:35MASS 4th & 25 at MASS 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−7.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:18BUF 4th & 5 at MASS 29, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−9.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:20MASS 4th & 11 at MASS 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−4.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:08BUF 4th & 26 at BUF 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−7.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:13MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.4%−3.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:09MASS 4th & 11 at BUF 36, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.8%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−4.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:58BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 36, up 6
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.1%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:44MASS 4th & 24 at MASS 5, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 9:44MASS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:12MASS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:55BUF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:02BUF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:37MASS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:2791% → 91%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
9.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 3 yds to the BUF 35Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
9.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 2 yds to the BUF 37Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+8
9.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Evan King for 8 yds to the BUF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
9.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 12 yds to the MASS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
9.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 4 yds to the MASS 39Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+4
8.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 4 yds to the MASS 35Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
8.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the MASS 35Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
9.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the MASS 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:459% → 9%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
8.9%
Brandon Hood run for 8 yds to the MASS 43Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
9.0%
Brandon Hood run for 1 yd to the MASS 44Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
9.0%
AJ Hairston run for 2 yds to the MASS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
9.0%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Jake McConnachie, broken up by Marquis CooperSimilar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
8.9%
Brandon Hood run for no gain to the MASS 46Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+2
8.8%
AJ Hairston run for 2 yds to the MASS 48Similar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
8.9%
Keegan Andrews punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3FG
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:5091% → 91%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
9.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 8 yds to the BUF 18Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+5
8.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
8.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 22 yds to the BUF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
8.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Marcus Velez for 19 yds to the MASS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
8.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 16 yds to the MASS 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
8.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 11 yds to the MASS 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
8.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 4 yds to the MASS 5Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
8.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q1 4:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
8.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah Gathings, broken up by Tyler MartinSimilar
Q1 4:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
8.7%
Jack Howes 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:098% → 8%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
8.2%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Reece Adkins for 5 yds to the MASS 30Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
8.2%
Juwaun Price run for no gain to the MASS 30Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
8.1%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Jake McConnachieSimilar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-5
7.9%
Massachusetts Penalty, false start (Zachary Farris) to the MASS 25Similar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
7.9%
Keegan Andrews punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5192% → 92%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
8.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillan, broken up by Timmy HinspeterSimilar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
8.3%
Lamar Sperling run for 2 yds to the BUF 33Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
8.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q1 2:27
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
8.4%
Dylan Drennan punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:458% → 8%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
7.9%
Massachusetts Penalty, substitution infraction (-4 Yards) to the MASS 4Similar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+7
7.9%
Brandon Hood run for 7 yds to the MASS 11Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+3
7.9%
Brandon Hood run for 3 yds to the MASS 14Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+1
7.7%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the MASS 15Similar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
7.5%
Keegan Andrews punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:1892% → 92%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
7.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
50
0
7.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 10
50
+7
7.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 7 yds to the MASS 43Similar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
7.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the MASS 43Similar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
7.8%
Dylan Drennan punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 3:128% → 12%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
7.7%
AJ Hairston run for no gain to the MASS 13Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-3
7.7%
Da'Marion Alberic run for a loss of 3 yards to the MASS 10Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+21
7.4%
AJ Hairston run for 21 yds to the MASS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
7.7%
Brandon Hood run for 25 yds to the BUF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
8.3%
Brandon Hood run for 16 yds to the BUF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
9.3%
Brandon Hood run for 1 yd to the BUF 27Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+27
11.6%
Kezion Dia-Johnson 27 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 5:1589% → 87%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 26Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
11.5%
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Tyler Doty) to the BUF 21Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+1
11.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 1 yd to the BUF 22Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+14
13.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 14 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
12.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Patrick Clacks III for 4 yds to the BUF 40Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
12.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 2 yds to the BUF 42Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+7
12.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 7 yds to the BUF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
12.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Victor Snow, broken up by Brennen BaileySimilar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
12.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 48Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+6
12.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the MASS 46Similar
Q2 4:29
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
12.9%
Dylan Drennan punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10TD
1 play · 90 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+90
18.0%
Brandon Hood 90 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1580% → 88%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+37
20.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 37 yds to the MASS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
19.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
19.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 15 yds to the MASS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
12.3%
Victor Snow 23 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0013% → 8%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.2%
Brandon Hood run for 3 yds to the MASS 28Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
13.5%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Brandon Hood for 1 yd to the MASS 29Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-6
8.5%
AJ Hairston sacked by Kobe Stewart and Dion Crawford for a loss of 6 yards to the MASS 23Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
8.1%
Keegan Andrews punt for 54 yds , Victor Snow returns for no gain to the BUF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:2490% → 90%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
9.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+18
9.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 18 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
9.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks IIISimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
9.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Mark Anthony Scott Jr.Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
9.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Al-Jay HendersonSimilar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
10.1%
Dylan Drennan punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MASS 24 , Kenyon Massey returns for no gain to the MASS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:279% → 8%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
9.0%
AJ Hairston run for a loss of 4 yards to the MASS 20Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 14
OWN 20
0
8.9%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Brandon HoodSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+9
8.5%
Juwaun Price run for 9 yds to the MASS 29Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+10
8.3%
Keegan Andrews punt for 62 yds , Victor Snow returns for 10 yds to the BUF 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0590% → 90%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
9.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for no gain to the BUF 19 Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Henry Tabansi) to the BUF 10Similar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+6
10.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the BUF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:0115% → 15%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
15.2%
Brandon Hood run for 2 yds to the MASS 27Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
15.3%
AJ Hairston run for 5 yds to the MASS 32Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
15.2%
Brandon Hood run for 2 yds to the MASS 34Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
15.0%
Massachusetts Penalty, false start (Keith Sarkodieh) to the MASS 29Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
15.2%
Keegan Andrews punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 5:5380% → 93%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
19.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+7
19.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Evan King for 7 yds to the BUF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
19.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the BUF 40Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+2
18.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 42Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+6
20.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Evan King for 6 yds to the BUF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
20.1%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 8 yds to the MASS 44Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+14
20.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 14 yds to the MASS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
20.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 11 yds to the MASS 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
20.4%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 2 yds to the MASS 17Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+8
18.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Lamar Sperling for 8 yds to the MASS 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
20.9%
Victor Snow run for 5 yds to the MASS 4Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
21.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Al-Jay Henderson for a 1ST down Massachusetts Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kendall Bournes) to the MASS 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
21.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the MASS 1Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.8%
Terrance Shelton Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2410% → 17%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
9.7%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Brandon Hood for 7 yds to the MASS 32Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-4
10.6%
Brandon Hood run for a loss of 4 yards to the MASS 28Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
9.1%
Massachusetts Penalty, false start (Brandon Hood) to the MASS 23Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+77
17.4%
Max Dowling 77 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:4075% → 70%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
25.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah Gathings for a 1ST down Massachusetts Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Malcolm Greene) to the BUF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
23.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BUF 47Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-8
23.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the BUF 39 Buffalo Penalty, intentional grounding (Ta'Quan Roberson) to the BUF 39Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
28.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+8
29.6%
Dylan Drennan punt for 42 yds , Kenyon Massey returns for 8 yds to the MASS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20Uncategorized
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1221% → 20%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-7
20.6%
AJ Hairston sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the MASS 20 Massachusetts Penalty, intentional grounding (AJ Hairston) to the MASS 20Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 17
OWN 20
+2
21.9%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Donnie Gray for 2 yds to the MASS 22Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 15
OWN 22
-10
21.1%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Donnie Gray for no gain to the MASS 22 Massachusetts Penalty, Offensive holding (Benjamin Roy Jr.) to the MASS 12Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 25
OWN 12
0
21.1%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Brandon HoodSimilar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 25
OWN 12
0
20.2%
Keegan Andrews punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:0372% → 78%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
28.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
27.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the MASS 49Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
27.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the MASS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
27.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+12
27.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 12 yds to the MASS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
27.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
27.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the MASS 29Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
29.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Victor Snow, broken up by Jeremiah McGillSimilar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
22.0%
Jack Howes 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:5816% → 15%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.2%
Brandon Hood run for 5 yds to the MASS 30Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
16.7%
Brandon Hood run for 2 yds to the MASS 32Similar
Q4 14:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-13
16.1%
AJ Hairston sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the MASS 19 Massachusetts Penalty, intentional grounding (AJ Hairston) to the MASS 19Similar
Q4 14:21
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+5
14.5%
Buffalo Penalty, off-side (Shamar Riser-Pressley) to the MASS 24Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+61
14.5%
Keegan Andrews punt for 51 yds Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Marquis Cooper) to the BUF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:0578% → 94%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
21.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 18Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+10
24.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 10 yds to the BUF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
24.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillan, broken up by Zeraun DanielSimilar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
24.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 30Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+16
25.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Evan King for 16 yds to the BUF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
21.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 45Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-10
23.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for no gain Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Trevor Brock) to the BUF 35Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 21
OWN 35
0
25.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 21
OWN 35
-5
26.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah Gathings, broken up by Brennen Bailey Buffalo Penalty, illegal forward pass (Ta'Quan Roberson) to the BUF 30Similar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 26
OWN 30
0
6.3%
Dylan Drennan punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24MISSED FG
16 plays · 40 yds · 7:487% → 12%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
6.9%
Brandon Hood run for 2 yds to the MASS 26Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
6.8%
Brandon Hood run for 3 yds to the MASS 29Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+4
6.8%
AJ Hairston run for 4 yds to the MASS 33Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+1
7.3%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the MASS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
7.6%
Brandon Hood run for 5 yds to the MASS 39Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+3
8.6%
Brandon Hood run for 3 yds to the MASS 42Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+2
8.5%
Brandon Hood run for 2 yds to the MASS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
10.1%
Brandon Hood run for 4 yds to the MASS 48Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
12.9%
Brandon Hood run for 3 yds to the BUF 49Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+3
13.8%
AJ Hairston run for 3 yds to the BUF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
13.9%
Da'Marion Alberic run for 1 yd to the BUF 45Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+10
14.9%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Jake McConnachie for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Defensive holding (Keontez Bradley) to the BUF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
17.7%
Brandon Hood run for no gain to the BUF 35Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
17.9%
Elijah Faulkner run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 36Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
13.9%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Max DowlingSimilar
Q4 3:09
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+54
12.1%
Derek Morris 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25INT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:0695% → 99%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
4.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 7 yds to the BUF 43Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
4.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks IIISimilar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-5
4.5%
Buffalo Penalty, delay of game (Ta'Quan Roberson) to the BUF 38Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-2
4.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson sacked by Marques White for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 36Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+16
1.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 16 yds to the MASS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-11
1.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the MASS 41 Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Al-Jay Henderson) to the BUF 41Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 21
OWN 41
+11
0.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Patrick Clacks III for 11 yds to the MASS 48Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
0.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass intercepted Jeremiah McGill return for no gain to the MASS 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:103% → 3%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
3.3%
Massachusetts Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Derrieon Craig) to the MASS 10Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 20
OWN 9
-4
3.1%
Brandon Hood run for a loss of 4 yards to the MASS 5Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 19
OWN 10
-1
3.4%
AJ Hairston run for a loss of 1 yard to the MASS 9Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 24
OWN 5
0
3.0%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Kezion Dia-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 24
OWN 5
0
2.8%
Keegan Andrews punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 0:2099% → 98%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
50
+14
0.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 14 yds to the MASS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
0.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 20 yds to the MASS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
0.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for no gain to the BUF 35Similar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
1.9%
Victor Snow 16 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Ta'Quan Roberson Pass to Nik McMillan for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 28Uncategorized
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:143% → 2%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
3.0%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Juwaun PriceSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
2.4%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Max DowlingSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-6
2.3%
AJ Hairston sacked by Kobe Stewart for a loss of 6 yards to the MASS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:08
Dylan Drennan punt for 46 yds
-20.6
TD · Q3 7:02
Terrance Shelton Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)
-14.3
TD · Q3 5:37
Max Dowling 77 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris Kick)
+8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com