BUF
Buffalo 28 at Massachusetts 21
MASS2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:05 · AJ Hairston sacked by Kobe Stewart for a loss of 6 yards to the MASS 40
01
Market gave MASS a 13% pregame chance
−39
02
Blowout context favors the defense
−11
03
MASS has the ball
−6
04
defense timeouts not recorded for this play
−2
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
BUF · Drive 1DOWNS · 9 plays · 33 yds
Q1 14:56
Marcus Lye kickoff for 60 yds , Terrance Shelton Jr. return for 27 yds to the BUF 32
0.0
Q1 14:51
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 3 yds to the BUF 35
-0.6
Q1 14:28
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 2 yds to the BUF 37
-0.1
Q1 13:56
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Evan King for 8 yds to the BUF 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 13:31
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 12 yds to the MASS 43 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q1 13:10
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 4 yds to the MASS 39
-0.1
Q1 12:37
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 4 yds to the MASS 35
-0.1
Q1 12:03
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the MASS 35
0.0
Q1 11:24
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the MASS 35
+0.1
MASS · Drive 2PUNT · 7 plays · 13 yds
Q1 11:20
Brandon Hood run for 8 yds to the MASS 43
+1.0
Q1 10:58
Brandon Hood run for 1 yd to the MASS 44
+0.2
Q1 10:18
AJ Hairston run for 2 yds to the MASS 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 9:53
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Jake McConnachie, broken up by Marquis Cooper
0.0
Q1 9:48
Brandon Hood run for no gain to the MASS 46
0.0
Q1 9:14
AJ Hairston run for 2 yds to the MASS 48
0.0
Q1 8:35
Keegan Andrews punt for 42 yds
-0.2
BUF · Drive 3FG · 10 plays · 85 yds
Q1 8:29
Al-Jay Henderson run for 8 yds to the BUF 18
-0.7
Q1 7:58
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 23 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 7:25
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 22 yds to the BUF 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 6:54
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Marcus Velez for 19 yds to the MASS 36 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q1 6:24
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 16 yds to the MASS 20 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q1 6:00
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 11 yds to the MASS 9 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 5:27
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 4 yds to the MASS 5
+0.1
Q1 4:54
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Victor Snow
0.0
Q1 4:46
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah Gathings, broken up by Tyler Martin
0.0
Q1 4:39
Jack Howes 23 Yd Field Goal
-0.6
MASS · Drive 4PUNT · 6 plays · 0 yds
Q1 4:39
Jack Howes kickoff for 65 yds
+0.1
Q1 4:38
AJ Hairston pass complete to Reece Adkins for 5 yds to the MASS 30
+0.8
Q1 4:04
Juwaun Price run for no gain to the MASS 30
0.0
Q1 3:33
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Jake McConnachie
0.0
Q1 3:30
Massachusetts Penalty, false start (Zachary Farris) to the MASS 25
0.0
Q1 3:29
Keegan Andrews punt for 44 yds
0.0
BUF · Drive 5PUNT · 4 plays · 2 yds
Q1 3:18
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillan, broken up by Timmy Hinspeter
-0.8
Q1 3:13
Lamar Sperling run for 2 yds to the BUF 33
0.0
Q1 2:32
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillan
0.0
Q1 2:27
Dylan Drennan punt for 59 yds
0.0
MASS · Drive 6PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q1 2:16
Massachusetts Penalty, substitution infraction (-4 Yards) to the MASS 4
+0.8
Q1 2:13
Brandon Hood run for 7 yds to the MASS 11
0.0
Q1 1:44
Brandon Hood run for 3 yds to the MASS 14
0.0
Q1 1:09
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the MASS 15
0.0
Q1 0:31
Keegan Andrews punt for 48 yds
+0.4
BUF · Drive 7PUNT · 5 plays · 20 yds
Q1 0:25
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
-0.9
Q2 14:59
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the 50 yard line
-0.3
Q2 14:19
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 7 yds to the MASS 43
+0.3
Q2 13:54
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the MASS 43
0.0
Q2 13:07
Dylan Drennan punt for 30 yds
+0.1
MASS · Drive 8TD · 7 plays · 87 yds
Q2 12:56
AJ Hairston run for no gain to the MASS 13
+1.4
Q2 12:22
Da'Marion Alberic run for a loss of 3 yards to the MASS 10
0.0
Q2 11:36
AJ Hairston run for 21 yds to the MASS 31 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 11:05
Brandon Hood run for 25 yds to the BUF 44 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q2 10:42
Brandon Hood run for 16 yds to the BUF 28 for a 1ST down
+1.4
Q2 10:12
Brandon Hood run for 1 yd to the BUF 27
-0.3
Q2 9:44
Kezion Dia-Johnson 27 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris Kick)
+5.6
BUF · Drive 9PUNT · 12 plays · 29 yds
Q2 9:44
Marcus Lye kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.6
Q2 9:44
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 26
-2.1
Q2 9:10
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Tyler Doty) to the BUF 21
+0.2
Q2 8:53
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 1 yd to the BUF 22
0.0
Q2 8:07
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 14 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q2 7:39
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Patrick Clacks III for 4 yds to the BUF 40
+0.2
Q2 7:06
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 2 yds to the BUF 42
-0.3
Q2 6:28
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 7 yds to the BUF 49 for a 1ST down
+1.3
Q2 6:00
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Victor Snow, broken up by Brennen Bailey
-0.3
Q2 5:51
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 48
0.0
Q2 5:06
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the MASS 46
+1.1
Q2 4:29
Dylan Drennan punt for 36 yds
0.0
MASS · Drive 10TD · 1 play · 90 yds
Q2 4:12
Brandon Hood 90 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)
+14.8
BUF · Drive 11TD · 6 plays · 75 yds
Q2 4:12
Marcus Lye kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q2 4:10
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillan
-5.1
Q2 4:04
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 37 yds to the MASS 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 3:35
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah Gathings
-0.9
Q2 3:28
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 15 yds to the MASS 23 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 2:55
Victor Snow 23 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)
-9.4
MASS · Drive 12PUNT · 5 plays · -2 yds
Q2 2:55
Jack Howes kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.3
Q2 2:53
Brandon Hood run for 3 yds to the MASS 28
+1.6
Q2 2:34
AJ Hairston pass complete to Brandon Hood for 1 yd to the MASS 29
+0.1
Q2 1:58
AJ Hairston sacked by Kobe Stewart and Dion Crawford for a loss of 6 yards to the MASS 23
+0.6
Q2 1:53
Keegan Andrews punt for 54 yds , Victor Snow returns for no gain to the BUF 18
-0.3
BUF · Drive 13PUNT · 6 plays · 18 yds
Q2 1:40
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillan
-1.4
Q2 1:38
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 18 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:31
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks III
+0.1
Q2 1:25
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Mark Anthony Scott Jr.
0.0
Q2 1:22
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Al-Jay Henderson
0.0
Q2 1:16
Dylan Drennan punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MASS 24 , Kenyon Massey returns for no gain to the MASS 24
0.0
MASS · Drive 14PUNT · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q2 1:03
AJ Hairston run for a loss of 4 yards to the MASS 20
+2.2
Q2 0:45
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Brandon Hood
+0.1
Q2 0:45
Juwaun Price run for 9 yds to the MASS 29
0.0
Q2 0:36
Keegan Andrews punt for 62 yds , Victor Snow returns for 10 yds to the BUF 19
-0.4
BUF · Drive 15END OF HALF · 2 plays · -9 yds
Q2 0:26
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for no gain to the BUF 19 Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Henry Tabansi) to the BUF 10
-1.8
Q2 0:21
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the BUF 35
0.0
MASS · Drive 16PUNT · 6 plays · 4 yds
Q3 15:00
Jack Howes kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.2
Q3 14:59
Brandon Hood run for 2 yds to the MASS 27
+2.1
Q3 14:29
AJ Hairston run for 5 yds to the MASS 32
+0.3
Q3 13:53
Brandon Hood run for 2 yds to the MASS 34
0.0
Q3 13:11
Massachusetts Penalty, false start (Keith Sarkodieh) to the MASS 29
+0.1
Q3 12:58
Keegan Andrews punt for 47 yds
0.0
BUF · Drive 17TD · 14 plays · 76 yds
Q3 12:55
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 27
-2.3
Q3 12:25
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Evan King for 7 yds to the BUF 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 11:43
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the BUF 40
0.0
Q3 11:21
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 42
-0.4
Q3 10:37
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Evan King for 6 yds to the BUF 48 for a 1ST down
+0.8
Q3 10:09
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 8 yds to the MASS 44
+0.7
Q3 9:56
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 14 yds to the MASS 30 for a 1ST down
+1.3
Q3 9:33
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 11 yds to the MASS 19 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q3 9:14
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 2 yds to the MASS 17
0.0
Q3 8:48
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Lamar Sperling for 8 yds to the MASS 9 for a 1ST down
-1.1
Q3 8:06
Victor Snow run for 5 yds to the MASS 4
0.0
Q3 7:38
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Al-Jay Henderson for a 1ST down Massachusetts Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kendall Bournes) to the MASS 2 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q3 7:33
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the MASS 1
0.0
Q3 7:02
Terrance Shelton Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)
-9.5
MASS · Drive 18TD · 5 plays · 75 yds
Q3 7:02
Jack Howes kickoff for 65 yds
+0.4
Q3 7:01
AJ Hairston pass complete to Brandon Hood for 7 yds to the MASS 32
+1.9
Q3 6:39
Brandon Hood run for a loss of 4 yards to the MASS 28
0.0
Q3 6:05
Massachusetts Penalty, false start (Brandon Hood) to the MASS 23
0.0
Q3 5:37
Max Dowling 77 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris Kick)
+10.7
BUF · Drive 19PUNT · 6 plays · 14 yds
Q3 5:37
Marcus Lye kickoff for 44 yds
0.0
Q3 5:35
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah Gathings for a 1ST down Massachusetts Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Malcolm Greene) to the BUF 40 for a 1ST down
-2.8
Q3 5:28
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BUF 47
-0.5
Q3 5:07
Ta'Quan Roberson sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the BUF 39 Buffalo Penalty, intentional grounding (Ta'Quan Roberson) to the BUF 39
-0.6
Q3 4:58
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah Gathings
+1.0
Q3 4:55
Dylan Drennan punt for 42 yds , Kenyon Massey returns for 8 yds to the MASS 27
+0.2
MASS · Drive 20Uncategorized · 5 plays · 2 yds
Q3 4:47
AJ Hairston sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the MASS 20 Massachusetts Penalty, intentional grounding (AJ Hairston) to the MASS 20
+3.2
Q3 4:01
AJ Hairston pass complete to Donnie Gray for 2 yds to the MASS 22
+1.7
Q3 3:50
AJ Hairston pass complete to Donnie Gray for no gain to the MASS 22 Massachusetts Penalty, Offensive holding (Benjamin Roy Jr.) to the MASS 12
0.0
Q3 3:35
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Brandon Hood
+0.4
Q3 3:35
Keegan Andrews punt for 45 yds
-0.5
BUF · Drive 21FG · 9 plays · 28 yds
Q3 3:21
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 48
-2.4
Q3 3:01
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the MASS 49
0.0
Q3 2:16
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the MASS 46 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q3 1:51
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillan
+0.4
Q3 1:45
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 12 yds to the MASS 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 1:02
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Victor Snow
-0.5
Q3 0:55
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the MASS 29
0.0
Q3 0:25
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Victor Snow, broken up by Jeremiah McGill
0.0
Q3 0:18
Jack Howes 47 Yd Field Goal
-4.8
MASS · Drive 22PUNT · 6 plays · -1 yds
Q3 0:18
Jack Howes kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.1
Q3 0:18
Brandon Hood run for 5 yds to the MASS 30
+3.6
Q4 14:57
Brandon Hood run for 2 yds to the MASS 32
0.0
Q4 14:26
AJ Hairston sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the MASS 19 Massachusetts Penalty, intentional grounding (AJ Hairston) to the MASS 19
+1.7
Q4 14:21
Buffalo Penalty, off-side (Shamar Riser-Pressley) to the MASS 24
-0.4
Q4 14:20
Keegan Andrews punt for 51 yds Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Marquis Cooper) to the BUF 15
0.0
BUF · Drive 23TD · 10 plays · 85 yds
Q4 14:13
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 18
-3.8
Q4 13:35
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 10 yds to the BUF 28 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 13:12
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillan, broken up by Zeraun Daniel
0.0
Q4 13:08
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 30
0.0
Q4 12:32
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Evan King for 16 yds to the BUF 46 for a 1ST down
+0.9
Q4 12:02
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 45
-1.1
Q4 11:34
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for no gain Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Trevor Brock) to the BUF 35
+0.1
Q4 11:24
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah Gathings
+1.0
Q4 11:19
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah Gathings, broken up by Brennen Bailey Buffalo Penalty, illegal forward pass (Ta'Quan Roberson) to the BUF 30
0.0
Q4 11:08
Dylan Drennan punt for 46 yds
0.0
MASS · Drive 24MISSED FG · 16 plays · 40 yds
Q4 10:57
Brandon Hood run for 2 yds to the MASS 26
+4.3
Q4 10:25
Brandon Hood run for 3 yds to the MASS 29
0.0
Q4 9:56
AJ Hairston run for 4 yds to the MASS 33
0.0
Q4 9:13
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the MASS 34 for a 1ST down
+0.9
Q4 8:41
Brandon Hood run for 5 yds to the MASS 39
+0.5
Q4 8:21
Brandon Hood run for 3 yds to the MASS 42
+0.6
Q4 7:45
Brandon Hood run for 2 yds to the MASS 44 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q4 7:09
Brandon Hood run for 4 yds to the MASS 48
+0.2
Q4 6:47
Brandon Hood run for 3 yds to the BUF 49
+0.3
Q4 6:14
AJ Hairston run for 3 yds to the BUF 46 for a 1ST down
+3.4
Q4 5:32
Da'Marion Alberic run for 1 yd to the BUF 45
+0.2
Q4 4:56
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Jake McConnachie for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Defensive holding (Keontez Bradley) to the BUF 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 4:48
Brandon Hood run for no gain to the BUF 35
+0.3
Q4 4:01
Elijah Faulkner run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 36
+2.2
Q4 3:14
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Max Dowling
+2.4
Q4 3:09
Derek Morris 54 yd FG MISSED
-0.7
BUF · Drive 25INT · 8 plays · 16 yds
Q4 3:05
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 7 yds to the BUF 43
-7.7
Q4 2:35
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks III
-0.9
Q4 2:31
Buffalo Penalty, delay of game (Ta'Quan Roberson) to the BUF 38
0.0
Q4 2:30
Ta'Quan Roberson sacked by Marques White for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 36
+0.2
Q4 1:58
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 16 yds to the MASS 48 for a 1ST down
+1.9
Q4 1:46
Ta'Quan Roberson sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the MASS 41 Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Al-Jay Henderson) to the BUF 41
-1.7
Q4 1:14
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Patrick Clacks III for 11 yds to the MASS 48
+2.3
Q4 0:59
Ta'Quan Roberson pass intercepted Jeremiah McGill return for no gain to the MASS 19
+1.3
MASS · Drive 26PUNT · 5 plays · -14 yds
Q4 0:54
Massachusetts Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Derrieon Craig) to the MASS 10
+9.1
Q4 0:51
Brandon Hood run for a loss of 4 yards to the MASS 5
0.0
Q4 0:50
AJ Hairston run for a loss of 1 yard to the MASS 9
+1.9
Q4 0:48
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Kezion Dia-Johnson
0.0
Q4 0:44
Keegan Andrews punt for 45 yds
-0.6
BUF · Drive 27TD · 4 plays · 50 yds
Q4 0:39
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 14 yds to the MASS 36 for a 1ST down
-10.4
Q4 0:28
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 20 yds to the MASS 16 for a 1ST down
-0.8
Q4 0:19
Victor Snow 16 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Ta'Quan Roberson Pass to Nik McMillan for Two-Point Conversion)
-23.3
Q4 0:21
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for no gain to the BUF 35
+24.4
MASS · Drive 28Uncategorized · 4 plays · 0 yds
Q4 0:19
Jack Howes kickoff for 30 yds
-24.4
Q4 0:19
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Juwaun Price
+0.9
Q4 0:10
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Max Dowling
0.0
Q4 0:05
AJ Hairston sacked by Kobe Stewart for a loss of 6 yards to the MASS 40
0.0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:21
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for no gain to the BUF 35
+24.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:19
Jack Howes kickoff for 30 yds
-24.4
TD · Q4 0:19
Victor Snow 16 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Ta'Quan Roberson Pass to Nik McMillan for Two-Point Conversion)
-23.3