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AKR

Akron 28 at Ball State 42

BALL
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreAKR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:00 · Joseph Castle punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALL 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Home team on offense−3.7Score differential−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Pregame prior−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:26: Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 37 yds for a TD (Matthew Schramm KICK) — AKR win probability +15.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:54: Qua Ashley run for 69 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK) — BALL win probability +18.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:52: Kiael Kelly pass complete to Koby Gross for 29 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK) — BALL win probability +16.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:24: Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Schramm KICK) — AKR win probability +19.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:43: Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK) — BALL win probability +13.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:38BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:16AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:53AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:08AKR 4th & 7 at BALL 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    42.8%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:41BALL 4th & 11 at AKR 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%
    42% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:16AKR 4th & 25 at AKR 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−3.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:18BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 49, up 6
    Close callPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:32BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 18, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−3.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:39AKR 4th & 1 at BALL 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−3.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−9.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:48BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:00AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 38, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:28AKR 4th & 10 at BALL 12, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−12.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:46AKR 4th & 5 at BALL 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    21.0%−2.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:47AKR 4th & 1 at BALL 1, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.6%−7.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−11.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:45AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 47, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:50BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 42, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:42AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    51.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:13BALL Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:45BALL Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:26AKR Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:54BALL Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:52BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:24AKR Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:43BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:34BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1545% → 45%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.0%
Qua Ashley run for 3 yds to the BALL 28Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
45.1%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Donovan HamiltonSimilar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
45.2%
Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the BALL 34Similar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
45.3%
Qua Ashley run for no gain to the BALL 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:4555% → 56%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
45.2%
Jordan Gant run for no gain to the BALL 34Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
45.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 10 yds to the BALL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
45.2%
Jordan Gant run for 2 yds to the BALL 22Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+3
45.3%
Jordan Gant run for 3 yds to the BALL 19Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+19
44.0%
Israel Polk 19 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Michael Johnson Jr. Pass to Max Whisner for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2644% → 48%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.2%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian MagwoodSimilar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
44.2%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Isaiah Thacker for 10 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
44.1%
Qua Ashley run for 7 yds to the BALL 42Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
44.4%
Qua Ashley run for 4 yds to the BALL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+37
44.3%
Ty Robinson pass complete to Drew Cassens for 37 yds to the AKR 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
44.5%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to TJ Horton for 3 yds to the AKR 20Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+7
44.4%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 7 yds to the AKR 13Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+6
44.1%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 6 yds to the AKR 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
44.4%
Kiael Kelly run for no gain to the AKR 7Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
44.3%
(06:20) Shotgun Kelly,Kiael pass incomplete short right to Ashley,Qua thrown to Akr10 PENALTY Akr Offside (Durham,Cyrus) 4 yards from Akr07 to Akr03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.7%
Kiael Kelly run for 3 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5153% → 52%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.8%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Israel PolkSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
46.8%
Akron Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 2 yds to the AKR 27Similar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+6
47.6%
Joseph Castle punt for 51 yds , Joedrick Lewis returns for 6 yds to the BALL 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 4:2346% → 54%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
46.4%
Qua Ashley run for 4 yds to the BALL 32Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+17
46.7%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 17 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-6
47.7%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Cyrus Durham for a loss of 6 yards to the BALL 43Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 16
OWN 43
+3
46.9%
Kiael Kelly run for 3 yds to the BALL 46Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 13
OWN 46
-5
46.5%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Cook,Tristan) 5 yards from BSU46 to BSU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 18
OWN 41
+33
46.7%
Kiael Kelly run for 33 yds to the AKR 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
49.3%
Qua Ashley run for no gain to the AKR 26Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
54.2%
Kiael Kelly run for 26 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4348% → 47%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.0%
Jordan Gant run for 3 yds to the AKR 28Similar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
51.9%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Cameron MonteiroSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
52.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jordan Gant for 4 yds to the AKR 32Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
52.9%
Joseph Castle punt for 34 yds , Joedrick Lewis returns for 1 yd to the BALL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:4854% → 56%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
53.6%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Julien Laventure for a loss of 3 yards to the BALL 32Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+8
53.7%
TJ Horton run for 8 yds to the BALL 40Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+10
54.7%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Koby Gross for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
50
+7
56.1%
TJ Horton run for 7 yds to the AKR 43Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-4
56.4%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Bruno Dall for a loss of 4 yards to the AKR 47Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-14
56.1%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Markus Boswell for a loss of 14 yards to the BALL 39 Kiael Kelly fumbled, recovered by AKR Julien Laventure , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4149% → 47%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
51.2%
Sean Patrick run for 2 yds to the BALL 37Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
51.4%
Sean Patrick run for no gain to the BALL 37Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+1
51.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jordan Gant for 1 yd to the BALL 36Similar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
53.3%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Myles WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9MISSED FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:2157% → 59%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
56.8%
Akron Penalty, Personal Foul (Nehemiah Musika) to the AKR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
58.5%
Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the AKR 41Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+6
58.8%
Qua Ashley run for 6 yds to the AKR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
59.6%
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the AKR 37Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 12
OPP 37
-5
60.1%
(07:48) PENALTY BSU False Start (Weatherly,Eric) 5 yards from Akr37 to Akr42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+5
59.5%
PENALTY Akr Offside (Durham,Cyrus) 5 yards from Akr42 to Akr37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+1
60.4%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qua Ashley for 1 yd to the AKR 36Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
60.0%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Eric WeatherlySimilar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+53
58.5%
Carson Holmer 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 1:1845% → 41%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
55.4%
Ben Finley sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the AKR 31Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
56.9%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Cameron MonteiroSimilar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 15
OWN 31
-10
57.9%
Ben Finley sacked by Nathan Voorhis for a loss of 10 yards to the AKR 21Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 25
OWN 21
0
58.9%
Joseph Castle punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5862% → 60%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.7%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Eric WeatherlySimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
60.9%
TJ Horton run for 7 yds to the BALL 49Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
61.0%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian MagwoodSimilar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
60.4%
Adam Saul punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12TD
13 plays · 96 yds · 2:5442% → 55%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
58.0%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Israel PolkSimilar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+10
58.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 10 yds to the AKR 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
57.6%
Ben Finley run for 11 yds to the AKR 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Myles Walker for 4 yds to the AKR 29Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
57.2%
Jordan Gant run for 12 yds to the AKR 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
56.4%
Ben Finley sacked by Darin Conley for a loss of 7 yards to the AKR 34Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+15
61.2%
Ball State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jack Beebe) to the AKR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
58.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Marcel Williams for 13 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
57.2%
Jordan Gant run for 1 yd to the BALL 37Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+37
41.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 37 yds for a TD (Matthew Schramm KICK)Similar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
44.7%
(01:24) Wiley,Owen kickoff 49 yards to the BSU16 Weatherly,Eric return 6 yards to the BSU22, out of bounds at BSU22 PENALTY Akr Illegal Formation (Johnson,DiMarco) 5 yards from Akr35 to Akr30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:3545% → 43%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
44.9%
Qua Ashley run for 4 yds to the BALL 20Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-4
44.7%
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 4 yards to the BALL 16Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+2
44.0%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 2 yds to the BALL 18Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
43.4%
Adam Saul punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AKR 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:2654% → 53%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
46.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Conner Cravaack for 12 yds to the AKR 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
44.5%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,Ben rush left for 4 yards gain to the Akr46, out of bounds at Akr46 PENALTY Akr Holding (Motley-Simmons,Jayme) 10 yards from Akr42 to Akr32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+11
46.7%
Jordan Gant run for 11 yds to the AKR 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:0955% → 55%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
45.5%
Jordan Gant run for 27 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
43.4%
Jordan Gant run for 3 yds to the BALL 35Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+4
42.3%
Jordan Gant run for 4 yds to the BALL 31Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
43.5%
Jordan Gant run for 2 yds to the BALL 29Similar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
45.4%
Jordan Gant run for no gain to the BALL 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5149% → 46%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
48.6%
Qua Ashley run for 1 yd to the BALL 30Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
48.6%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Ty RobinsonSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
46.8%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Ty RobinsonSimilar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
46.1%
Adam Saul punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:4854% → 52%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
46.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Conner Cravaack for 5 yds to the AKR 35Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
45.5%
Sean Patrick run for 3 yds to the AKR 38Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
44.8%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Marcel WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
47.7%
Joseph Castle punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALL 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:5466% → 66%
Q3 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+69
65.8%
Qua Ashley run for 69 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)Similar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
66.3%
Kiael Kelly run for 3 yds to the BALL 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 2:2637% → 43%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
62.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 37 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
59.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,Ben pass incomplete deep middle to Mason,Kyan thrown to BSU01 PENALTY BSU Pass Interference (Gravely Jr.,Michael) 15 yards from BSU38 to BSU23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
57.2%
Ben Finley sacked by Ameir Glenn for a loss of 5 yards to the BALL 28Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+14
59.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 14 yds to the BALL 14Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+2
58.8%
Jordan Gant run for 2 yds to the BALL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
57.1%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Jordan GantSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
57.1%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Myles WalkerSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
59.5%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Tim Grear Jr.Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
56.9%
Matthew Schramm 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3660% → 79%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.0%
Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the BALL 29Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
60.2%
Shotgun Kelly,Kiael pass incomplete deep right to Magwood,Qian thrown to Akr40 PENALTY Akr Pass Interference (Reed,Elijah) 15 yards from BSU29 to BSU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+27
62.6%
Qua Ashley run for 27 yds to the AKR 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
78.9%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Koby Gross for 29 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:5724% → 24%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
75.8%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Israel PolkSimilar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+27
76.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 27 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
73.9%
Sean Patrick run for 8 yds to the BALL 41Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-3
73.7%
Sean Patrick run for a loss of 3 yards to the BALL 44Similar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
75.0%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Myles WalkerSimilar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
76.5%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Myles WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5880% → 79%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
80.3%
Qua Ashley run for 4 yds to the BALL 48Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
79.2%
Qua Ashley run for 1 yd to the BALL 49Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
78.5%
Kiael Kelly pass intercepted DiMarco Johnson return for no gain to the AKR 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:0725% → 46%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
75.0%
Ben Finley run for 21 yds to the BALL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
73.0%
Ben Finley run for 2 yds to the BALL 29Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+10
73.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 10 yds to the BALL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
73.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Conner Cravaack for 15 yds to the BALL 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
53.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Schramm KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:1762% → 86%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.8%
Qua Ashley run for 4 yds to the BALL 29Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
62.1%
Qua Ashley run for no gain to the BALL 29Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
65.0%
(14:17) Shotgun Kelly,Kiael pass incomplete short right to Hamilton,Donovan thrown to BSU45 broken up by Kamara,Ben PENALTY Akr Pass Interference (Kamara,Ben) 15 yards from BSU29 to BSU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
69.3%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Eric WeatherlySimilar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-5
68.1%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Roberts,Aaron) 5 yards from BSU44 to BSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+5
66.8%
PENALTY Akr Offside (Frazier,Dahvon) 5 yards from BSU39 to BSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
68.1%
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the BALL 46Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+42
67.0%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Koby Gross for 42 yds Koby Gross fumbled, recovered by BALL Donovan Hamilton for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
72.3%
Qua Ashley run for 4 yds to the AKR 8Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+7
72.5%
Kiael Kelly run for 7 yds to the AKR 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.8%
(11:41) Shotgun Ashley,Qua rush middle for 0 yards to the Akr01 (Laventure,Julien; Dall,Bruno) PENALTY Akr Illegal Substitution. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.9%
Qua Ashley run for no gain to the AKR 1Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.0%
Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:4414% → 18%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
85.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Sean Patrick for 14 yds to the AKR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
84.0%
Sean Patrick run for 8 yds to the AKR 47Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+6
83.7%
Sean Patrick run for 6 yds to the BALL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+25
83.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 25 yds to the BALL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
82.2%
Jordan Gant run for 9 yds to the BALL 13Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+5
82.5%
Jordan Gant run for 5 yds to the BALL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
86.4%
Ben Finley run for 3 yds to the BALL 5Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
85.4%
Jordan Gant run for 4 yds to the BALL 1Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.5%
Jordan Gant run for no gain to the BALL 1Similar
Q4 5:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
82.4%
Matthew Schramm 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 26INT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:141% → 1%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Myles WalkerSimilar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 13 yds to the AKR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.2%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Myles WalkerSimilar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.2%
Jordan Gant run for 5 yds to the AKR 43Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+4
99.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 4 yds to the AKR 47Similar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
99.3%
Jordan Gant run for 1 yd to the AKR 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.3%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Israel PolkSimilar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-7
99.3%
Ben Finley pass intercepted Roman Pearson return for 7 yds to the BALL 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.7%
Qua Ashley run for 1 yd to the BALL 43Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+2
99.8%
Qua Ashley run for 2 yds to the BALL 45Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-3
99.8%
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the BALL 42Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Adam Saul punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 28INT
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:081% → 1%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Marcel Williams for 11 yds to the AKR 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-16
99.5%
Ben Finley pass intercepted Joedrick Lewis return for 16 yds to the AKR 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
99.8%
K. Kelly takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 12
OPP 23
-3
99.8%
K. Kelly takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 15
OPP 26
-5
99.8%
PENALTY BSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from Akr26 to Akr31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 20
OPP 31
-2
99.7%
K. Kelly takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:24
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Schramm KICK)
-19.7
TD · Q3 9:54
Qua Ashley run for 69 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)
+18.1
TD · Q3 5:52
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Koby Gross for 29 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)
+16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com