2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreMASS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:55 · Keegan Andrews punt for 47 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialOffense timeoutsDefense timeoutsScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:47: Sebastian Brown 36 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick) — KENT win probability +9.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 5:41: Dashawn Martin 25 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick) — KENT win probability +18.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 13:07: Brandon Hood run for 8 yds to the KENT 36 for a 1ST down — MASS win probability +9.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 11:41: Gavin Garcia run for 3 yds to the KENT 23 — MASS win probability +9.1 pts (now 30%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:23: Terik Mulder 10 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick) — KENT win probability +15.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 3 of 6MASS made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 12:55MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snapGo for it43.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.8%average punt
- Q1 11:25KENT 4th & 2 at KENT 31, up 7Close callPunted · 56.6% before the snapGo for it56.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:33MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snapGo for it41.6%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.8%average punt
- Q1 4:35MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 5, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snapGo for it34.5%−1.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.6%average punt
- Q1 2:49KENT 4th & 4 at MASS 25, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.5%47% to convertField goal66.1%−0.466% to makePunt62.1%−4.4average punt
- Q2 10:18MASS 4th & 17 at KENT 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.6% before the snapGo for it27.3%−2.113% to convertField goalTheir call29.4%74% to makePunt23.8%−5.5average punt
- Q2 3:58MASS 4th & 5 at KENT 19, down 16Close callWent for it · 24.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.1%−0.140% to convertField goal24.2%77% to makePunt20.3%−3.9average punt
- Q3 11:48MASS 4th & 16 at KENT 42, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snapGo for it17.2%−1.216% to convertField goal17.8%−0.630% to makePuntTheir call18.4%average punt
- Q3 9:47KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 39, up 16Close callWent for it · 85.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.0%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt85.4%average punt
- Q3 4:17MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 31, down 22Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.3%−0.548% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.8%average punt
- Q3 1:29MASS 4th & 1 at KENT 44, down 36Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%70% to convertField goal0.1%−0.327% to makePunt0.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 14:59KENT 4th & 5 at MASS 49, up 36Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 13:16MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 46, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 9:39KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 22, up 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 7:47MASS 4th & 3 at KENT 49, down 36Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:17KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 24, up 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 5:47KENT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.7%97% to makeGo for two62.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:41KENT Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.2%97% to makeGo for two80.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 5:23KENT Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:07KENT Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:22KENT Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMASSDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5341% → 42%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2057% → 55%
Q1 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
56.1%
Dru DeShields pass incomplete to Sebastian Brown, broken up by Zeraun DanielSimilar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+5
55.8%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Dashawn Martin for 5 yds to the KENT 31Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+2
55.0%
Charlie Durkin punt for 38 yds , Samuel Baddoo returns for 2 yds to the MASS 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:4344% → 45%
Q1 10:03
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+10
56.1%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jake McConnachie for 10 yds to the MASS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
55.8%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Kenyon Massey for 7 yds to the KENT 49Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-7
55.9%
AJ Hairston sacked by Jamond Mathis for a loss of 7 yards to the MASS 44Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 10
OWN 44
+9
54.6%
Keegan Andrews punt for 49 yds , Wayne Harris returns for 9 yds to the KENT 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4TD6 plays · 84 yds · 2:3453% → 60%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
60.2%
Sebastian Brown 36 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0542% → 42%
Q1 4:35
4TH & 9
OWN 5
+6
57.7%
Keegan Andrews punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MASS 44 , Wayne Harris returns for 6 yds to the MASS 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6DOWNS5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3660% → 60%
MASSDrive 7FG22 plays · 54 yds · 7:2045% → 48%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.4%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Kezion Dia-Johnson, broken up by Jamond MathisSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
55.3%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Brandon Hood for 8 yds to the MASS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+11
55.0%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jake McConnachie for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
50
0
54.0%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Jake McConnachie, broken up by A'tiq MuhammadSimilar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 10
50
-13
54.5%
AJ Hairston pass complete to AJ Hairston for a loss of 13 yards to the MASS 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 23
OWN 37
-10
54.9%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Kenyon Massey for no gain to the MASS 37 Massachusetts Penalty, Offensive holding (Luke Painton) to the MASS 27Similar
Q2 14:39
3RD & 33
OWN 27
-3
55.7%
Juwaun Price run for 12 yds to the MASS 39 for a 1ST down Massachusetts Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Joel Cordoba) to the MASS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+20
54.8%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Max Dowling for 20 yds to the KENT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+8
54.3%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Tyree Kelly for 8 yds to the KENT 18Similar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
53.9%
Elijah Faulkner run for no gain to the KENT 14 Massachusetts Penalty, illegal motion (Tyree Kelly) to the KENT 19Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 16
OPP 20
-1
55.0%
AJ Hairston sacked by CJ Young for a loss of 1 yard to the KENT 21Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 17
OPP 21
0
55.9%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Kezion Dia-Johnson, broken up by Jaire RawlisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3254% → 71%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.0%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Wayne Harris for 5 yds to the KENT 30Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+11
52.7%
Dru DeShields pass incomplete to Dashawn Martin, broken up by Malcolm Greene for a 1ST down Massachusetts Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Malcolm Greene) to the MASS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9DOWNS6 plays · 30 yds · 1:4129% → 36%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+51
71.2%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Reece Adkins for 51 yds to the KENT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
65.3%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Donnie Gray for 6 yds to the KENT 18Similar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 5
OPP 19
-26
64.2%
AJ Hairston sacked by Mason Maddox for a loss of 26 yards to the KENT 45 AJ Hairston fumbled, recovered by MASS Kyle Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10PUNT12 plays · 33 yds · 3:1231% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.6%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jake McConnachie for 5 yds to the MASS 30Similar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
67.8%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Donnie Gray, broken up by Jaire RawlisonSimilar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
69.9%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Donnie Gray for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
69.0%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Kezion Dia-Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the KENT 37Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 11
OPP 37
0
75.9%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Tyree Kelly, broken up by Tevin TuckerSimilar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 11
OPP 37
-5
76.5%
Massachusetts Penalty, false start (Luke Painton) to the KENT 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11TD17 plays · 80 yds · 6:1870% → 94%
Q3 11:10
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+12
69.5%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Dashawn Martin for 12 yds to the KENT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+27
71.4%
Da'Realyst Clark pass complete to Zy'aire Fletcher for 27 yds to the MASS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+15
74.3%
Sebastian Brown pass incomplete to Terik Mulder for a 1ST down Massachusetts Penalty, roughing passer (David Onuoha) to the MASS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
71.0%
Dru DeShields run for a loss of 7 yards to the MASS 11 Dru DeShields fumbled, recovered by KENT Dru DeShields DeShields,Dru rush middle for loss of 7 yards to the Mas23, fumble by DeShields,Dru recovered by KSU DeShields,Dru, DeShields,Dru rush , PENALTY Mas unsportsmanlike conduct (Igwenagu,Zukudo) 12 yards to the Mas28. Massachusetts Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Zukudo Igwenagu) to the MASS 11Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
78.5%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Wayne Harris for 5 yds to the MASS 1Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.2%
Dru DeShields pass incomplete to Dashawn Martin for a 1ST down Massachusetts Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Malcolm Greene) to the MASS 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
78.2%
Kent State Penalty, delay of game (Dru DeShields) to the MASS 10Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
93.5%
Terik Mulder 10 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 1:058% → 7%
KENTDrive 13TD1 play · 34 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14INT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:091% → 0%
KENTDrive 15TD2 plays · 30 yds · 0:28100% → 100%
MASSDrive 16DOWNS8 plays · 29 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.6%
AJ Hairston sacked by Jaire Rawlison and Darian Blachewicz for a loss of 7 yards to the MASS 18Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+19
99.7%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Donnie Gray for 19 yds to the MASS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
99.7%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Donnie Gray for a 1ST down Kent State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jaire Rawlison) to the MASS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.7%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jake McConnachie for 5 yds to the KENT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:29100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.8%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Kezion Dia-Johnson for 6 yds to the MASS 26Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
99.8%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Donnie Gray for 4 yds to the MASS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
99.8%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Donnie Gray for 15 yds to the MASS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.8%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Kenyon Massey for 1 yd to the MASS 46Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
99.8%
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Da'Marion Alberic, broken up by CJ YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 3:31100% → 100%
MASSDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:490% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22INT6 plays · 12 yds · 3:010% → 0%
Q4 2:06
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Brandon Rose pass incomplete to Jax Markovich, broken up by Sayed AbuhamdehSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23Uncategorized3 plays · -5 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:41
Dashawn Martin 25 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)
+18.5
TD · Q3 5:23
Terik Mulder 10 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)
+15.4
TD · Q1 5:47
Sebastian Brown 36 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)
+9.2