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TOL

Toledo 23 at Bowling Green 28

BGSU
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:32 · Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 6 yds to the BGSU 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior−31.1Home team on offense−1.7Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:29: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacob Petersen for 17 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +6.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:13: Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Cameron Pettaway for 45 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK) — BGSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:52: Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Jacob Harris for 8 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK) — BGSU win probability +16.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:03: RJ Garcia II pass complete to Cameron Pettaway for 73 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK) — BGSU win probability +29.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:07: Chris McMillian run for 1 yd for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK) — BGSU win probability +41.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TOL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 10:35BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:32TOL 4th & 7 at BGSU 27, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    73.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:44BGSU 4th & 13 at BGSU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:18BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:18BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:45TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:31BGSU 4th & 10 at TOL 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:51TOL 4th & 2 at BGSU 2, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    78.5%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−6.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:24BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:43BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:40TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:43BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:12TOL 4th & 20 at TOL 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−3.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:05TOL 4th & 18 at TOL 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−2.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:24TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:03BGSU 4th & 14 at BGSU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−3.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:52TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:44TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:33BGSU 4th & 9 at TOL 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:03TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:39TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:29TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:13BGSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:52BGSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:03BGSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−1.0
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:07BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4983% → 83%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
16.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 39 yds to the BGSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
17.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 7 yds to the BGSU 29Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
17.2%
Tucker Gleason run for 4 yds to the BGSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
17.4%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the BGSU 24Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-5
17.7%
PENALTY Toledo False Start (Petersen,Jacob) 5 yards from BGSU24 to BGSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+15
18.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 15 yds to the BGSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
17.4%
Chip Trayanum run for 14 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1518% → 18%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
17.7%
Cameron Pettaway run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 20Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+5
17.8%
Lucian Anderson III run for 5 yds to the BGSU 25Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
17.9%
Lucian Anderson III pass incomplete to RJ Garcia IISimilar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+10
17.8%
John Henderson punt for 40 yds for a 1ST down , Bryson Hammer returns for 10 yds to the BGSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3882% → 82%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
17.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the BGSU 38Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+8
17.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 8 yds to the BGSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
18.0%
Kenji Christian run for 3 yds to the BGSU 27Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
17.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
18.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+6
18.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 6 yds to the BGSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3719% → 19%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
18.5%
Cameron Pettaway run for no gain to the BGSU 21Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
18.7%
Lucian Anderson III run for no gain to the BGSU 21Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+3
18.6%
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 3 yds to the BGSU 18Similar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
18.6%
John Henderson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:5581% → 84%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
18.7%
Junior Vandeross III run for 4 yds to the TOL 37Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+24
18.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacob Petersen for 24 yds to the BGSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
18.5%
Kenji Christian run for 5 yds to the BGSU 34Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+8
18.5%
Kenji Christian run for 8 yds to the BGSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
18.6%
Kenji Christian run for 9 yds to the BGSU 17Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+5
18.6%
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the BGSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
16.4%
Tucker Gleason run for 12 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0517% → 17%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
16.8%
Chris McMillian run for 3 yds to the BGSU 23Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
16.8%
Chris McMillian run for 1 yd to the BGSU 24Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
16.9%
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Kaderris Roberts for no gain to the BGSU 24Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
16.8%
John Henderson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 27Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
16.8%
John Henderson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:3383% → 83%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
16.6%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the TOL 30Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+1
16.5%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the TOL 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
16.4%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+12
16.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 52 yds , Brennan Ridley returns for 12 yds to the BGSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 5:1417% → 16%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
16.8%
Chris McMillian run for 2 yds to the BGSU 31Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+5
16.8%
Kaderris Roberts run for 5 yds to the BGSU 36Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+6
17.1%
Lucian Anderson III run for 6 yds to the BGSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
17.4%
Kaderris Roberts run for 4 yds to the BGSU 46Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+16
17.4%
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 16 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
17.5%
Chris McMillian run for 3 yds to the TOL 35Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-3
17.7%
Chris McMillian run for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 38Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+5
17.4%
Lucian Anderson III run for 5 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+5
16.7%
PENALTY BGSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from Toledo33 to Toledo38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
16.1%
John Henderson punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 94 yds · 4:4085% → 85%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+17
15.5%
Chip Trayanum run for 17 yds to the TOL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
15.3%
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 18Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+12
15.5%
Chip Trayanum run for 12 yds to the TOL 30Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+19
15.4%
Chip Trayanum run for 19 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+42
14.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Kenji Christian for 42 yds to the BGSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
14.5%
Kenji Christian run for no gain to the BGSU 9Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
14.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 7 yds to the BGSU 2Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
14.6%
Chip Trayanum run for no gain to the BGSU 2Similar
Q2 4:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
15.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Connor JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2115% → 15%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
15.0%
Lucian Anderson III pass incomplete to RJ Garcia IISimilar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+1
14.9%
Mar'Kel Porter run for 1 yd to the BGSU 3Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+3
14.7%
Mar'Kel Porter run for 3 yds to the BGSU 6Similar
Q2 3:24
4TH & 6
OWN 6
0
14.7%
John Henderson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the BGSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:5086% → 94%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
14.1%
Kenji Christian run for 2 yds to the BGSU 41Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+13
14.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 13 yds to the BGSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
13.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 8 yds to the BGSU 20Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+3
12.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the BGSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
6.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacob Petersen for 17 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 1:0210% → 16%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
9.6%
Lucian Anderson III run for 1 yd to the BGSU 31Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+9
9.4%
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 9 yds to the BGSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
10.0%
Lucian Anderson III pass incomplete to Mar'Kel PorterSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
9.5%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson III,Lucian pass incomplete deep right to Hogan,Finn thrown to Toledo28 PENALTY Toledo Pass Interference (Fuller,Andre) 15 yards from BGSU40 to Toledo45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
10.4%
Lucian Anderson III pass incomplete to Jyrin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
15.8%
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Cameron Pettaway for 45 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
13.4%
T. Gleason takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5715% → 15%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
15.0%
Cameron Pettaway run for 7 yds to the BGSU 32Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
15.6%
Kaderris Roberts run for 2 yds to the BGSU 34Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
15.6%
Mar'Kel Porter run for no gain to the BGSU 34Similar
Q3 12:43
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
14.7%
John Henderson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:5686% → 87%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
14.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 8 yds to the TOL 23Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 2
OWN 23
0
13.7%
Chip Trayanum run for no gain to the TOL 23Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+3
13.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the TOL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
13.2%
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 21Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 15
OWN 21
0
13.4%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 15
OWN 21
-5
13.8%
(10:23) PENALTY Toledo Delay Of Game 5 yards from Toledo21 to Toledo16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 20
OWN 16
+10
13.7%
Chip Trayanum run for 10 yds to the TOL 26Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+2
12.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BGSU 31 , Brennan Ridley returns for 2 yds to the BGSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3714% → 13%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
13.8%
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for no gain to the BGSU 31Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-4
13.5%
Kaderris Roberts run for a loss of 4 yards to the BGSU 27Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+2
12.6%
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 2 yds to the BGSU 29Similar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
12.5%
John Henderson punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1788% → 89%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
11.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 13 yds to the TOL 29 Chip Trayanum fumbled, recovered by TOL for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
11.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 17 yds to the TOL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
10.2%
Toledo Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Stephen Gales) to the TOL 31Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 25
OWN 31
+6
11.1%
Kenji Christian run for 6 yds to the TOL 37Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 19
OWN 37
-1
10.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Kenji Christian for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 36Similar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 20
OWN 36
0
11.2%
Emilio Duran punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BGSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:1214% → 31%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
13.8%
Kaderris Roberts run for a loss of 3 yards to the BGSU 46Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+3
12.7%
Chris McMillian run for 3 yds to the BGSU 49Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+15
12.7%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson III,Lucian pass incomplete deep right to Garcia II,RJ thrown to Toledo05 PENALTY Toledo Pass Interference (Smith,Avery) 15 yards from BGSU49 to Toledo36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
13.8%
Lucian Anderson III pass incomplete to Eli Jacon-DuffySimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
13.7%
Chris McMillian run for 4 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+5
13.7%
PENALTY BGSU False Start (Pabst,Nate) 5 yards from Toledo32 to Toledo37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+14
13.2%
Lucian Anderson III run for 14 yds to the TOL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
14.3%
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Kaderris Roberts for 15 yds to the TOL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
30.8%
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Jacob Harris for 8 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:4179% → 80%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.4%
Chip Trayanum run for 6 yds to the TOL 31Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
20.5%
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
20.5%
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 35Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+8
21.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 8 yds to the TOL 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+14
19.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 14 yds to the BGSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-8
18.7%
Tucker Gleason sacked by David Afogho for a loss of 8 yards to the TOL 49Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 18
OWN 49
0
18.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Eric Holley IIISimilar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 18
OWN 49
0
19.0%
Tucker Gleason run for no gain to the TOL 49Similar
Q4 13:05
4TH & 18
OWN 49
0
20.5%
Emilio Duran punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.4%
Lucian Anderson III pass intercepted Braden Awls return for no gain to the TOL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2481% → 78%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
19.2%
Tucker Gleason run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 28Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 12
OWN 28
-10
20.3%
(12:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker pass incomplete short right to Rudolph,Trayvon thrown to Toledo39 broken up by McClendon,Jalen PENALTY Toledo Holding (Rhett,Cole) 10 yards from Toledo28 to Toledo18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 22
OWN 18
0
20.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Terrell Crosby Jr.Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 22
OWN 18
+11
21.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 11 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 11
OWN 29
+9
22.4%
Emilio Duran punt for 37 yds , Brennan Ridley returns for 9 yds to the BGSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1326% → 20%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
26.1%
Lucian Anderson III run for no gain to the BGSU 43Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
25.2%
(11:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson III,Lucian pass incomplete deep left to Middleton,Allen thrown to Toledo20 QB hurried by Dunn Jr,Anthony PENALTY BGSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Padgett,Alex) 5 yards from BGSU43 to BGSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
24.0%
Lucian Anderson III pass incomplete to RJ Garcia IISimilar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+1
22.8%
Lucian Anderson III run for 1 yd to the BGSU 39Similar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
20.1%
John Henderson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0282% → 81%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
17.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the TOL 22Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
18.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds to the TOL 28Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-3
17.7%
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 25Similar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+4
19.4%
Emilio Duran punt for 50 yds , Brennan Ridley returns for 4 yds to the BGSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 0:3923% → 52%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
22.8%
Chris McMillian run for a loss of 2 yards to the BGSU 27Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+73
51.8%
RJ Garcia II pass complete to Cameron Pettaway for 73 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:2152% → 52%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
47.6%
Kenji Christian run for 2 yds to the TOL 6Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 8
OWN 6
-5
47.9%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Myles Bradley for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 1 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by TOL Isaiah Thomison , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 26TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.1%
Chris McMillian run for 1 yd for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:1117% → 13%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
82.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the TOL 26Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
82.4%
Chip Trayanum run for 6 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
84.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q4 4:51
4TH & 6
OWN 27
-5
85.7%
PENALTY Toledo False Start (Fouty,Carter) 5 yards from Toledo27 to Toledo22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 1
OWN 32
-5
83.0%
PENALTY Toledo False Start (Gales,Stephen) 5 yards from Toledo32 to Toledo27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:44
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
86.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brennan Ridley at the BGSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:0589% → 93%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
89.1%
Kaderris Roberts run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
50
+1
92.5%
Kaderris Roberts run for 1 yd to the TOL 49Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
93.2%
Chris McMillian run for 3 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+2
93.3%
Lucian Anderson III run for 2 yds to the TOL 44Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+5
92.6%
PENALTY BGSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from Toledo44 to Toledo49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
92.9%
John Henderson punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 29INT
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:0812% → 15%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
88.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-15
87.3%
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker pass incomplete deep right to Holley III,Eric thrown to BGSU45 QB hurried by Thomison,Isaiah PENALTY BGSU Pass Interference (McClendon,Jalen) 15 yards from Toledo33 to Toledo48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
86.4%
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 46Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+17
87.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 17 yds to the BGSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
85.1%
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the BGSU 32Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
82.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Chip TrayanumSimilar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
85.2%
Tucker Gleason pass intercepted MJ Cannon return for no gain to the BGSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 30SF
6 plays · -23 yds · 1:0096% → 95%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 14
OWN 23
+2
95.7%
Chris McMillian run for 2 yds to the BGSU 25Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+5
95.7%
Chris McMillian run for 5 yds to the BGSU 30Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-2
96.6%
Lucian Anderson III run for a loss of 2 yards to the BGSU 28Similar
Q4 0:06
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+5
96.0%
PENALTY BGSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from BGSU28 to BGSU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 14
OWN 23
-23
95.2%
Lucian Anderson III run for a loss of 23 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:07
Chris McMillian run for 1 yd for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
+41.2
TD · Q4 7:03
RJ Garcia II pass complete to Cameron Pettaway for 73 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
+29
TD · Q3 1:52
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Jacob Harris for 8 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
+16.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com