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BALL

Ball State 0 at Western Michigan 42

WMU
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:55 · Broc Lowry run for 2 yds to the BALL 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Home team on offense+0.4Score differential−0.1Pregame prior+25.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Blowout margin−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:56: Ofa Mataele run for 1 yd for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +2.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q1 0:00: Ofa Mataele run for 5 yds to the BALL 22 — WMU win probability +2.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:47: Broc Lowry pass complete to Michael Brescia for 5 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +4.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:16: Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +7.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:59: Broc Lowry pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 14 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BALL made the numbers' call on 14 of 16
  1. Q1 13:14BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:55WMU 4th & 3 at BALL 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:42BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:18BALL 4th & 3 at WMU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:55BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 35, down 14
    Close callPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:40BALL 4th & 13 at BALL 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:40BALL 4th & 13 at BALL 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:04WMU 4th & 10 at midfield, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:02BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 48, down 21
    Close callPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:50WMU 4th & 9 at WMU 18, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:24BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:24BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:26BALL 4th & 16 at BALL 10, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:08WMU 4th & 1 at BALL 16, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:09WMU 4th & 12 at BALL 13, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:52BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 21, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:52BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 21, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:43BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 44, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:43BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 44, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:08BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 32, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:08BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 32, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:22WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 25, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 1:56WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:47WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:16WMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:59WMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:26WMU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:42WMU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2823% → 23%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
77.5%
Qian Magwood run for 1 yd to the BALL 20Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+6
77.4%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 6 yds to the BALL 26Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 3
OWN 26
-7
77.3%
Kiael Kelly sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the BALL 19Similar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
77.3%
Adam Saul punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:1377% → 76%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
77.3%
Broc Lowry run for 5 yds to the BALL 48Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+10
77.2%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Blake Bosma for 10 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
77.2%
Jalen Buckley run for 7 yds to the BALL 31Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 3
OPP 31
-1
77.1%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Michael Brescia for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 32Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+4
76.9%
Broc Lowry run for 4 yds to the BALL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
77.0%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Blake BosmaSimilar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-2
76.9%
Broc Lowry run for a loss of 2 yards to the BALL 30Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+9
76.4%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 9 yds to the BALL 21Similar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+2
76.3%
Broc Lowry run for 2 yds to the BALL 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:5824% → 25%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
75.8%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 2 yds to the BALL 17Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+13
75.8%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 13 yds to the BALL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
75.5%
Qian Magwood run for a loss of 7 yards to the BALL 23Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+4
75.5%
Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the BALL 27Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+3
75.5%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 3 yds to the BALL 30Similar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+22
75.5%
Adam Saul punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1726% → 26%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
74.2%
Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd to the WMU 47Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-5
74.0%
(05:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Kelly,Kiael rush right for 5 yards gain to the WMU42 (Saipaia,Sefa; Davis,Micah) PENALTY BSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from WMU47 to BSU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+7
74.5%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 7 yds to the WMU 45Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+4
73.6%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Drew Cassens for 4 yds to the WMU 41Similar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 3
OPP 41
-4
73.7%
TJ Horton run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 0:5875% → 79%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+52
75.2%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 52 yds to the BALL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
75.6%
Broc Lowry run for 2 yds to the BALL 1Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.5%
Ofa Mataele run for 1 yd for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3423% → 23%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.3%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Elisha DurhamSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
77.4%
Qua Ashley run for 9 yds to the BALL 34Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
76.9%
Qua Ashley run for no gain to the BALL 34Similar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
77.3%
PENALTY WMU Offside (Al-Garawi,Mustafi) 5 yards from BSU34 to BSU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-12
76.6%
Jamarion McDougle run for a loss of 12 yards to the BALL 27 Jamarion McDougle fumbled, recovered by WMU Tate HallockSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:1379% → 83%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
78.7%
Ofa Mataele run for 5 yds to the BALL 22Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+5
78.6%
Ofa Mataele run for 5 yds to the BALL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
78.7%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Cade Conley for 12 yds to the BALL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.8%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Michael Brescia for 5 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3419% → 19%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
81.1%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 1 yd to the BALL 18Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+10
81.4%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Koby Gross for 10 yds to the BALL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
80.9%
Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the BALL 32Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+3
80.9%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qua Ashley for 3 yds to the BALL 35Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
81.1%
Kiael Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
81.2%
Adam Saul punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the WMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:3383% → 92%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
82.7%
Ball State Penalty, Personal Foul (Justin Thomas) to the WMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
82.7%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the WMU 28Similar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
83.9%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 1 yd to the WMU 44Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+5
83.8%
Broc Lowry run for 5 yds to the WMU 49Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+24
83.4%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 24 yds to the BALL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+25
84.2%
Aveion Chenault run for 25 yds to the BALL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.1%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:2910% → 9%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.9%
Qua Ashley run for 2 yds to the BALL 27Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
90.2%
Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the BALL 31Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
90.2%
Kiael Kelly run for 13 yds to the BALL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
90.1%
Qua Ashley run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 4
50
0
89.9%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qua AshleySimilar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 4
50
-9
90.2%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Nadame Tucker for a loss of 9 yards to the BALL 41Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 13
OWN 41
+1
91.4%
Adam Saul punt for 44 yds , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for 1 yd to the WMU 16Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 13
OWN 41
+1
91.4%
Adam Saul punt for 44 yds , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for 1 yd to the WMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:3293% → 94%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
93.1%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Baylin BrooksSimilar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+3
93.1%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Christian Leary for 3 yds to the WMU 19Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+10
93.2%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Christian Leary for 10 yds to the WMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+21
93.8%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
50
+4
94.2%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 4 yds to the BALL 46Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
94.2%
Devin Miles run for 5 yds to the BALL 41Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-4
94.1%
Devin Miles run for a loss of 4 yards to the BALL 45Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 5
OPP 45
-5
94.1%
PENALTY WMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from BSU45 to BSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 10
50
0
94.2%
Ryan Millmore punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:597% → 7%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
92.9%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ty Robinson for 6 yds to the BALL 26Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+15
92.7%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ty Robinson for 15 yds to the BALL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
92.6%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Eric WeatherlySimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
92.7%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qua AshleySimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+7
92.6%
Kiael Kelly run for 7 yds to the BALL 48Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
92.7%
Adam Saul punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
94.6%
B. Lowry takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:0394% → 95%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
94.4%
PENALTY WMU False Start (Whitenack,Hunter) 5 yards from WMU17 to WMU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:43
1ST & 15
OWN 12
0
94.4%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the WMU 12Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+3
94.7%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 3 yds to the WMU 15Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+3
94.6%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 3 yds to the WMU 18Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
94.5%
Ryan Millmore punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:196% → 5%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
94.4%
TJ Horton run for 6 yds to the BALL 32Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-5
94.3%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Nadame Tucker for a loss of 5 yards to the BALL 27Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
95.0%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Ty RobinsonSimilar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+2
95.0%
Adam Saul punt for 48 yds , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for 2 yds to the WMU 27Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+2
95.0%
Adam Saul punt for 48 yds , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for 2 yds to the WMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:1196% → 99%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
95.5%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 18 yds to the WMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
95.8%
Broc Lowry run for 15 yds to the BALL 40 for a 1ST down Western Michigan Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Yards) to the BALL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.9%
Ofa Mataele run for no gain to the BALL 40Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
96.0%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Aveion ChenaultSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+13
95.9%
Broc Lowry run for 13 yds to the BALL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
96.2%
Broc Lowry run for 6 yds to the BALL 21Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+7
96.4%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 7 yds to the BALL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.3%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 14 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-4
99.4%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Nadame Tucker for a loss of 4 yards to the BALL 12Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 14
OWN 12
-2
99.4%
Qua Ashley run for a loss of 2 yards to the BALL 10Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 16
OWN 10
0
99.5%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Koby GrossSimilar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 16
OWN 10
0
99.5%
Adam Saul punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18MISSED FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 5:08100% → 100%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
99.5%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Blake Bosma for 16 yds to the BALL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
99.5%
Devin Miles run for 6 yds to the BALL 40Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
99.6%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Terence MarshallSimilar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+15
99.6%
Devin Miles run for 15 yds to the BALL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.6%
Devin Miles run for 3 yds to the BALL 22Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
99.6%
Broc Lowry run for 5 yds to the BALL 17Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
99.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the BALL 16Similar
Q3 3:08
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+5
99.6%
Broc Lowry run for 5 yds to the BALL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
99.7%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the BALL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 25
OPP 26
+5
99.7%
Devin Miles run for 5 yds to the BALL 21Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 20
OPP 21
+8
99.7%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 8 yds to the BALL 13Similar
Q3 1:09
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+31
99.7%
Palmer Domschke 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.8%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 2 yds to the BALL 22Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
99.7%
Kiael Kelly run for 5 yds to the BALL 27Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-6
99.7%
Kiael Kelly sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the BALL 21Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
99.8%
Adam Saul punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the BALL 49Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
99.8%
Adam Saul punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the BALL 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
99.7%
Brady Jones pass intercepted Eric McClain return for 6 yds to the BALL 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.8%
Elijah Jackson run for 2 yds to the BALL 44Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian MagwoodSimilar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Ty RobinsonSimilar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Adam Saul punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the WMU 22Similar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Adam Saul punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the WMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 5:06100% → 100%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
99.7%
Broc Lowry run for 11 yds to the WMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.8%
Ofa Mataele run for 4 yds to the WMU 37Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+8
99.8%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 8 yds to the WMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
99.8%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Michael Brescia for 8 yds to the BALL 47Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
99.8%
Devin Miles run for 1 yd to the BALL 46Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
99.8%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Michael Brescia for 3 yds to the BALL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Cade Conley for 3 yds to the BALL 40Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
Devin Miles run for 3 yds to the BALL 37Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+37
99.9%
Broc Lowry run for 37 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:190% → 0%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for no gain to the BALL 25Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Qua Ashley run for 2 yds to the BALL 27 Qua Ashley fumbled, recovered by WMU Domanick MoonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:54100% → 100%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
99.9%
Brady Jones run for 2 yds to the BALL 25Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
Devin Miles run for 3 yds to the BALL 22Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+7
99.9%
Brady Jones run for 7 yds to the BALL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
99.9%
Devin Miles run for 6 yds to the BALL 9Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+4
99.9%
Brady Jones run for 4 yds to the BALL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.9%
Devin Miles run for 3 yds to the BALL 2Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
Devin Miles run for no gain to the BALL 2Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
PENALTY BSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McClain,Eric) 1 yard from BSU02 to BSU01, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Brady Jones pass complete to Cade Conley for 1 yd for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
TJ Horton run for 2 yds to the BALL 27Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
99.9%
TJ Horton run for 5 yds to the BALL 32Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Aidan Leffler pass incomplete to Elisha DurhamSimilar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Adam Saul punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the WMU 23Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Adam Saul punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the WMU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
99.9%
Mark Konecny run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 21 Mark Konecny fumbled, recovered by WMU Mark KonecnySimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+3
99.9%
Tre' Hartwell run for 3 yds to the WMU 24Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+1
99.9%
Tre' Hartwell run for 1 yd to the WMU 25Similar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Ryan Millmore punt for 53 yds , Qian Magwood returns for no gain to the BALL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
100.0%
Jalen Alexander run for 3 yds to the BALL 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:16
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q2 13:47
Broc Lowry pass complete to Michael Brescia for 5 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q3 7:59
Broc Lowry pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 14 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com