2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreM-OH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:25 · Joseph Castle punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Lynel Billups-Williams at the M-OH 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:26: Dequan Finn pass complete to Lynel Billups-Williams for 4 yds to the M-OH 47 — M-OH win probability +6.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:32: D'Shawntae Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK) — M-OH win probability +9.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:52: Dequan Finn pass complete to Kam Perry for 60 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK) — M-OH win probability +10.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:54: Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Schramm KICK) — AKR win probability +9.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:04: Matthew Schramm kickoff for 12 yds — M-OH win probability +7.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 6 of 6M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 3:45M-OH 4th & 20 at M-OH 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snapGo for it70.2%−0.710% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.9%average punt
- Q1 2:26AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snapGo for it28.7%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.2%average punt
- Q1 1:01M-OH 4th & 4 at AKR 48, tiedClose callPunted · 70.4% before the snapGo for it70.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:21AKR 4th & 11 at M-OH 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snapGo for it33.4%−0.525% to convertField goalTheir call33.9%75% to makePunt31.6%−2.4average punt
- Q2 4:46M-OH 4th & 10 at AKR 37, tiedClose callPunted · 65.5% before the snapGo for it64.9%30% to convertField goal64.8%−0.140% to makePuntTheir call64.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 3:25AKR 4th & 6 at AKR 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snapGo for it35.2%−1.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.3%average punt
- Q2 1:33M-OH 4th & 6 at AKR 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snapGo for it64.7%−0.538% to convertField goalTheir call65.2%79% to makePunt60.0%−5.2average punt
- Q3 8:44AKR 4th & 16 at AKR 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snapGo for it19.0%−2.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.2%average punt
- Q3 4:53AKR 4th & 14 at AKR 31, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snapGo for it10.5%−2.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.6%average punt
- Q4 14:08M-OH 4th & 1 at AKR 20, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.1%71% to convertField goal91.9%−1.275% to makePunt88.0%−5.0average punt
- Q4 13:15AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 30, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.9%−1.9average punt
- Q4 11:35M-OH 4th & 8 at AKR 28, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snapGo for it93.7%−0.234% to convertField goalTheir call93.8%60% to makePunt91.0%−2.8average punt
- Q4 1:52M-OH 4th & 1 at AKR 6, up 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.4%69% to convertField goal96.4%−1.091% to makePunt94.2%−3.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 0 of 1M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q3 10:32M-OH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.7%97% to makeGo for two77.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:52M-OH Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.0%97% to makeGo for two86.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:54AKR Touchdown, down 14 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call6.0%−0.197% to makeGo for two6.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1INT17 plays · 64 yds · 5:3122% → 25%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
21.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Marcel Williams for 8 yds to the AKR 33Similar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
22.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Conner Cravaack for 11 yds to the AKR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
22.3%
PENALTY AKRON False Start (Lyons,Colin) 5 yards from AKRON46 to AKRON41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-5
22.6%
PENALTY AKRON False Start (Williams,Marcel) 5 yards from AKRON47 to AKRON42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+19
22.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Marcel Williams for 19 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
24.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 3 yds to the M-OH 22Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+18
24.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Marcel Williams for 18 yds to the M-OH 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
24.8%
PENALTY AKRON False Start (Davis,Keylen) 5 yards from MIAMI04 to MIAMI09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-9
25.1%
Ben Finley pass intercepted Adam Trick return for 9 yds to the M-OH 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2PUNT13 plays · 36 yds · 5:1475% → 72%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
25.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 5 yds to the M-OH 26Similar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+5
26.4%
PENALTY AKRON Offside (Wondolowski,Austin) 5 yards from MIAMI27 to MIAMI32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+17
26.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Kam Perry for 17 yds to the AKR 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
26.0%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Dequan Finn) to the M-OH 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1328% → 28%
M-OHDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1973% → 72%
Q1 1:01
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
28.1%
Pierse Stainton punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Terence Thomas at the AKR 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5MISSED FG16 plays · 67 yds · 5:4029% → 32%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
29.1%
PENALTY AKRON False Start (Morris,Delvin) 5 yards from AKRON13 to AKRON08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 5
+18
29.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Cameron Monteiro for 18 yds to the AKR 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
30.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Marcel Williams for 3 yds to the AKR 26Similar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
31.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 10 yds to the M-OH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+18
32.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Cameron Monteiro for 18 yds to the M-OH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6PUNT13 plays · 43 yds · 5:3069% → 68%
Q2 8:48
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+3
30.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 3 yds to the M-OH 42Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-10
29.1%
(07:01) Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass complete short right to Reynolds,Keith caught at AKRON47, for 13 yards to the AKRON33 (Johnson,DiMarco), out of bounds PENALTY MIAMI Holding (Weaver,Cole) 10 yards from AKRON46 to MIAMI44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+4
31.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 4 yds to the M-OH 48Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+15
31.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Deion Colzie for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Justin Anderson) to the AKR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1636% → 34%
Q2 3:25
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
34.4%
Joseph Castle punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Lynel Billups-Williams at the M-OH 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8FG8 plays · 47 yds · 1:4567% → 71%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+33
31.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Deion Colzie for 33 yds to the AKR 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9DOWNS6 plays · 17 yds · 0:3833% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10INT2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0572% → 72%
AKRDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -3 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1969% → 80%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
31.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 6 yds to the M-OH 31Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
30.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 11 yds to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+16
29.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 16 yds to the AKR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+20
29.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Brian Shane for 20 yds to the AKR 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 1:3722% → 19%
M-OHDrive 14TD3 plays · 64 yds · 0:5179% → 90%
AKRDrive 15PUNT10 plays · 11 yds · 2:4612% → 11%
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
12.3%
PENALTY AKRON False Start (Lyons,Colin) 5 yards from AKRON20 to AKRON15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+20
12.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 20 yds to the AKR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+7
11.1%
Joseph Castle punt for 38 yds , Lynel Billups-Williams returns for 7 yds to the M-OH 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16DOWNS10 plays · 41 yds · 5:3892% → 95%
Q3 3:16
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+14
7.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Deion Colzie for 14 yds to the AKR 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
5.0%
PENALTY MIAMI Delay Of Game (Finn,Dequan) 5 yards from AKRON29 to AKRON34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+7
5.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Lynel Billups-Williams for 7 yds to the AKR 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:478% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18FG5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3496% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:352% → 12%
Q4 10:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
2.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 8 yds to the AKR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+11
2.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Cameron Monteiro for 11 yds to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
2.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 17 yds to the M-OH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
2.5%
PENALTY AKRON False Start (Grear Jr.,Tim) 5 yards from MIAMI25 to MIAMI30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+15
2.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 15 yds to the M-OH 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
12.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Schramm KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20END OF GAME12 plays · 37 yds · 3:0198% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:52
Dequan Finn pass complete to Kam Perry for 60 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q4 6:54
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Schramm KICK)
+9.6
TD · Q3 10:32
D'Shawntae Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
-9.5