WMU
Western Michigan 21 at Massachusetts 3
MASS2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey play
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MASS · Drive 1FG · 14 plays · 57 yds
Q1 15:00
Hunter Smith kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
25.6%
0.0
Q1 14:54
Brandon Hood run for 2 yds to the MASS 27
27.5%
+1.9
Q1 14:24
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 22 yds to the MASS 49 for a 1ST down
27.7%
+0.2
Q1 14:03
Brandon Hood run for no gain to the MASS 49
28.6%
+0.9
Q1 13:24
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 17 yds to the WMU 34 for a 1ST down
28.6%
0.0
Q1 12:52
Brandon Rose run for 6 yds to the WMU 28
29.7%
+1.1
Q1 12:32
Brandon Rose pass incomplete to Jacquon Gibson
29.7%
0.0
Q1 12:24
Elijah Faulkner run for 4 yds to the WMU 24 for a 1ST down
29.5%
-0.2
Q1 11:48
Elijah Faulkner run for 7 yds to the WMU 17
29.7%
+0.2
Q1 11:04
(11:09) Shotgun Price,Juwaun rush middle for 17 yards gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 11:04 PENALTY UMass Illegal Formation (Adkins,Reece) 5 yards from WMU17 to WMU22. NO PLAY.
29.7%
0.0
Q1 11:04
Timeout Massachusetts, clock 11:04
29.3%
-0.5
Q1 9:42
Elijah Faulkner run for 1 yd to the WMU 21
29.3%
0.0
Q1 9:42
Brandon Hood run for 3 yds to the WMU 18
29.0%
-0.2
Q1 9:42
Derek Morris 36 yd FG GOOD
33.2%
+4.2
WMU · Drive 2FUMBLE · 7 plays · 30 yds
Q1 9:32
Marcus Lye kickoff for 65 yds , Devin Miles return for 28 yds to the WMU 28
32.6%
-0.7
Q1 9:20
Broc Lowry run for 2 yds to the WMU 30
30.8%
-1.8
Q1 8:56
Broc Lowry run for 1 yd to the WMU 31
30.3%
-0.4
Q1 8:23
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Michael Brescia
30.9%
+0.6
Q1 8:08
(08:19) Millmore,Ryan punt 59 yards to the UMass10 PENALTY UMass Personal Foul (Dia-Johnson,Kezion) 15 yards from WMU31 to WMU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
30.9%
0.0
Q1 7:58
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line
29.2%
-1.7
Q1 7:30
Jalen Buckley run for 8 yds to the MASS 42 Jalen Buckley fumbled, recovered by WMU Tyler Martin
29.0%
-0.2
MASS · Drive 3PUNT · 4 plays · -6 yds
Q1 7:25
Brandon Rose pass incomplete to Donnie Gray
33.5%
+4.6
Q1 7:14
Brandon Rose sacked by Nadame Tucker for a loss of 6 yards to the MASS 36
33.5%
0.0
Q1 6:54
Brandon Rose pass incomplete to Donnie Gray
33.4%
-0.1
Q1 6:41
Keegan Andrews punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMU 21 , Joshua Franklin returns for 11 yds to the WMU 21
32.8%
-0.6
WMU · Drive 4PUNT · 10 plays · 35 yds
Q1 6:33
Broc Lowry pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 13 yds to the WMU 34 for a 1ST down
30.9%
-1.9
Q1 6:07
Broc Lowry pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 8 yds to the WMU 42
31.0%
+0.1
Q1 5:34
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the WMU 46 for a 1ST down
30.0%
-1.0
Q1 4:57
Broc Lowry pass complete to Michael Brescia for 9 yds to the MASS 45
29.6%
-0.4
Q1 4:25
Ofa Mataele run for 3 yds to the MASS 42 for a 1ST down
29.4%
-0.2
Q1 3:48
(03:56) Shotgun Lowry,Broc pass complete short left to Bosma,Blake caught at UMass38, for 13 yards to the UMass29 (Davis,Shymell) PENALTY WMU Pass Interference (Mataele,Ofa) 15 yards from UMass42 to WMU43. NO PLAY.
29.1%
-0.3
Q1 3:26
Broc Lowry pass complete to Christian Leary for no gain to the WMU 43
30.3%
+1.3
Q1 2:59
Broc Lowry pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 13 yds to the MASS 44
30.3%
0.0
Q1 2:25
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Talique Williams
29.4%
-0.9
Q1 2:22
Ryan Millmore punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MASS 15
29.7%
+0.3
MASS · Drive 5MISSED FG · 12 plays · 57 yds
Q1 2:11
Juwaun Price run for 27 yds to the MASS 42 for a 1ST down
33.5%
+3.7
Q1 1:41
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the MASS 44
34.0%
+0.6
Q1 0:59
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 5 yds to the MASS 49
34.5%
+0.5
Q1 0:32
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the WMU 47 for a 1ST down
34.5%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Brandon Rose run for 2 yds to the WMU 45
36.1%
+1.6
Q2 14:50
Elijah Faulkner run for 4 yds to the WMU 41
36.1%
0.0
Q2 14:28
Juwaun Price run for 14 yds to the WMU 27 for a 1ST down
36.2%
+0.1
Q2 13:52
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the WMU 24
36.4%
+0.2
Q2 13:22
Brandon Rose pass incomplete to Max Dowling
36.4%
0.0
Q2 13:16
Massachusetts Penalty, (-10 Yards) to the WMU 31
36.2%
-0.2
Q2 12:05
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 3 yds to the WMU 28
36.2%
0.0
Q2 12:01
Derek Morris 46 yd FG MISSED
35.5%
-0.7
WMU · Drive 6TD · 6 plays · 72 yds
Q2 11:50
Devin Miles run for 3 yds to the WMU 31
33.5%
-2.0
Q2 11:30
(11:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Lowry,Broc pass incomplete short left to Dieudonne,Malique thrown to WMU45 broken up by Greene,Malcolm, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UMass Pass Interference (Greene,Malcolm) 12 yards from WMU31 to WMU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
33.5%
0.0
Q2 10:26
Devin Miles run for 6 yds to the WMU 49
34.1%
+0.6
Q2 9:56
Devin Miles run for 7 yds to the MASS 44 for a 1ST down
33.4%
-0.7
Q2 9:34
Broc Lowry pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 36 yds to the MASS 8 for a 1ST down
33.1%
-0.2
Q2 9:23
Broc Lowry pass complete to Michael Brescia for 8 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
19.1%
-14.0
MASS · Drive 7PUNT · 8 plays · 21 yds
Q2 9:16
Hunter Smith kickoff for 63 yds , Jacquon Gibson return for 21 yds to the MASS 23
20.2%
+1.2
Q2 9:05
Elijah Faulkner run for a loss of 1 yard to the MASS 22
25.3%
+5.1
Q2 8:25
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 8 yds to the MASS 30
25.3%
0.0
Q2 7:52
Brandon Hood run for 6 yds to the MASS 36 for a 1ST down
24.0%
-1.3
Q2 7:23
Brandon Hood run for 8 yds to the MASS 44
24.0%
0.0
Q2 7:00
Brandon Hood run for no gain to the MASS 44
24.5%
+0.5
Q2 6:21
Brandon Rose pass incomplete to Jacquon Gibson
25.0%
+0.5
Q2 6:14
Keegan Andrews punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Joshua Franklin at the WMU 9
25.0%
0.0
WMU · Drive 8MISSED FG · 15 plays · 61 yds
Q2 6:06
Broc Lowry run for 5 yds to the WMU 14
19.8%
-5.1
Q2 5:35
Broc Lowry run for 11 yds to the WMU 25 for a 1ST down
19.8%
0.0
Q2 4:55
Broc Lowry pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 15 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST down
20.2%
+0.4
Q2 4:27
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Talique Williams
19.5%
-0.7
Q2 4:19
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the WMU 44
19.5%
0.0
Q2 3:34
Broc Lowry pass complete to Blake Bosma for 7 yds to the MASS 49 for a 1ST down
19.3%
-0.2
Q2 3:03
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Jalen Buckley
19.1%
-0.2
Q2 2:54
Broc Lowry run for 17 yds to the MASS 32 for a 1ST down
19.1%
0.0
Q2 2:16
Devin Miles run for 1 yd to the MASS 31
19.0%
-0.1
Q2 2:00
Timeout Massachusetts, clock 02:00
19.2%
+0.2
Q2 1:52
Timeout Massachusetts, clock 01:52
19.2%
0.0
Q2 1:51
Devin Miles run for a loss of 4 yards to the MASS 35
19.2%
0.0
Q2 1:47
Broc Lowry run for 5 yds to the MASS 30
19.2%
0.0
Q2 1:47
Timeout Massachusetts, clock 01:47
19.7%
+0.5
Q2 1:42
Palmer Domschke 48 yd FG MISSED
19.7%
0.0
MASS · Drive 9PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q2 1:35
Brandon Rose sacked by Rodney McGraw for a loss of 10 yards to the MASS 20
24.4%
+4.7
Q2 1:05
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 15 yds to the MASS 35
26.5%
+2.1
Q2 1:01
Timeout Massachusetts, clock 01:01
26.5%
0.0
Q2 0:58
Brandon Rose pass incomplete to Donnie Gray
26.5%
0.0
Q2 0:44
Keegan Andrews punt for 47 yds , Joshua Franklin returns for 27 yds to the WMU 9
26.6%
+0.1
WMU · Drive 10END OF HALF · 2 plays · 10 yds
Q2 0:34
Ofa Mataele run for 9 yds to the WMU 18
22.5%
-4.1
Q2 0:00
Ofa Mataele run for 1 yd to the WMU 19 for a 1ST down
22.7%
+0.2
WMU · Drive 11PUNT · 9 plays · 31 yds
Q3 14:54
Marcus Lye kickoff for 61 yds , Keivin Boone-Nelson II return for 14 yds to the WMU 18
29.8%
+7.1
Q3 14:41
Broc Lowry run for 9 yds to the WMU 27
25.1%
-4.7
Q3 14:11
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the WMU 32 for a 1ST down
25.1%
0.0
Q3 13:32
Broc Lowry run for 4 yds to the WMU 36
25.1%
0.0
Q3 12:52
Jalen Buckley run for 7 yds to the WMU 43 for a 1ST down
24.6%
-0.6
Q3 12:13
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 3 yds to the WMU 46
23.9%
-0.7
Q3 11:32
Broc Lowry pass complete to Cade Conley for no gain to the WMU 46
23.7%
-0.2
Q3 10:53
Broc Lowry pass complete to Ofa Mataele for 3 yds to the WMU 49
22.7%
-1.0
Q3 10:23
Ryan Millmore punt for 51 yds for a touchback
23.8%
+1.2
MASS · Drive 12PUNT · 4 plays · -3 yds
Q3 10:15
Elijah Faulkner run for a loss of 2 yards to the MASS 18
31.0%
+7.2
Q3 9:32
Brandon Rose pass complete to Kenyon Massey for a loss of 1 yard to the MASS 17
31.5%
+0.5
Q3 9:00
Brandon Rose pass incomplete to Max Dowling
31.5%
0.0
Q3 8:52
Keegan Andrews punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Joshua Franklin at the WMU 35
31.5%
0.0
WMU · Drive 13PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q3 8:40
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 3 yds to the WMU 38
25.6%
-5.9
Q3 8:07
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the WMU 39
24.5%
-1.0
Q3 7:53
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Malique Dieudonne
24.5%
0.0
Q3 7:43
Ryan Millmore punt for 50 yds , Samuel Baddoo returns for no gain to the MASS 10
24.8%
+0.3
Q3 7:43
Ryan Millmore punt for 50 yds , Samuel Baddoo returns for no gain to the MASS 10
24.8%
0.0
MASS · Drive 14PUNT · 5 plays · -2 yds
Q3 7:31
Brandon Rose pass complete to Max Dowling for 2 yds to the MASS 12
29.1%
+4.3
Q3 7:05
Brandon Rose pass incomplete to Donnie Gray
29.1%
0.0
Q3 6:56
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Rose,Brandon pass complete short middle to McConnachie,Jake caught at UMass25, for 23 yards to the UMass35 (Wofford,Aaron) PENALTY UMass Illegal Shift (Gray,Donnie) 5 yards from UMass12 to UMass07. NO PLAY.
29.2%
+0.1
Q3 6:29
Brandon Rose pass complete to Max Dowling for 1 yd to the MASS 8
29.2%
0.0
Q3 5:50
Keegan Andrews punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line
29.2%
0.0
WMU · Drive 15TD · 10 plays · 50 yds
Q3 5:33
Broc Lowry pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 15 yds to the MASS 35 for a 1ST down
21.8%
-7.4
Q3 5:24
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Aveion Chenault
21.7%
-0.1
Q3 5:21
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Malique Dieudonne
21.7%
0.0
Q3 5:12
Broc Lowry run for 6 yds to the MASS 29
21.7%
0.0
Q3 4:29
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 6 yds to the MASS 23 for a 1ST down
23.5%
+1.8
Q3 3:51
Broc Lowry run for 5 yds to the MASS 18
23.3%
-0.2
Q3 3:20
Devin Miles run for 3 yds to the MASS 15
22.6%
-0.7
Q3 2:47
Broc Lowry run for 5 yds to the MASS 10 for a 1ST down
22.6%
0.0
Q3 1:53
Broc Lowry pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 6 yds to the MASS 4
23.3%
+0.6
Q3 1:26
Broc Lowry run for 4 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
9.5%
-13.8
MASS · Drive 16PUNT · 7 plays · 21 yds
Q3 1:26
Hunter Smith kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
9.9%
+0.4
Q3 1:26
PENALTY WMU Offside (Tucker,Nadame) 5 yards from UMass25 to UMass30. NO PLAY.
12.1%
+2.3
Q3 1:12
AJ Hairston pass complete to Kenyon Massey for 15 yds to the MASS 45 for a 1ST down
12.1%
0.0
Q3 0:40
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Donnie Gray
12.3%
+0.2
Q3 0:35
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Donnie Gray
12.3%
0.0
Q3 0:27
AJ Hairston run for 1 yd to the MASS 46 Massachusetts Penalty, (Yards) declined
12.3%
0.0
Q3 0:09
Keegan Andrews punt for 44 yds
12.2%
-0.1
MASS · Drive 17DOWNS · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q3 0:00
AJ Hairston sacked by Nadame Tucker for a loss of 10 yards to the WMU 28
13.6%
+1.4
Q4 14:54
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Donnie Gray
13.6%
0.0
Q4 14:38
AJ Hairston pass complete to Brandon Hood for 15 yds to the WMU 13
13.4%
-0.3
Q4 14:02
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Jake McConnachie
13.0%
-0.4
Q4 14:02
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Jake McConnachie
13.0%
0.0
WMU · Drive 18TD · 12 plays · 87 yds
Q4 13:54
Ofa Mataele run for 4 yds to the WMU 17
8.7%
-4.3
Q4 13:20
Broc Lowry run for 8 yds to the WMU 25 for a 1ST down
8.7%
0.0
Q4 12:43
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Mataele,Ofa rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WMU29 (Igwenagu,Zukudo) PENALTY WMU Holding (Whitenack,Hunter) 10 yards from WMU25 to WMU15. NO PLAY.
8.7%
0.0
Q4 12:25
Broc Lowry pass complete to Christian Leary for 6 yds to the WMU 21
8.2%
-0.6
Q4 11:51
Broc Lowry run for 10 yds to the WMU 31
8.2%
0.0
Q4 11:27
Broc Lowry pass complete to Christian Leary for 12 yds to the WMU 43 for a 1ST down
8.2%
0.0
Q4 11:03
Ofa Mataele run for 1 yd to the WMU 44
7.8%
-0.4
Q4 10:23
Talique Williams run for 8 yds to the MASS 48
7.6%
-0.2
Q4 9:48
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the MASS 46 for a 1ST down
7.6%
0.0
Q4 9:07
Jalen Buckley run for 7 yds to the MASS 39
7.1%
-0.5
Q4 8:36
Jalen Buckley run for 14 yds to the MASS 25 for a 1ST down
6.1%
-1.0
Q4 8:04
Devin Miles run for 25 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
0.9%
-5.2
MASS · Drive 19INT · 11 plays · 60 yds
Q4 8:04
Hunter Smith kickoff for 63 yds
0.9%
0.0
Q4 7:55
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the MASS 29
2.3%
+1.4
Q4 5:53
AJ Hairston pass complete to Max Dowling for 4 yds to the MASS 33
2.0%
-0.3
Q4 5:36
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jake McConnachie for 12 yds to the MASS 45 for a 1ST down
2.0%
0.0
Q4 5:36
Elijah Faulkner run for 1 yd to the MASS 46
2.0%
0.0
Q4 5:36
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jake McConnachie for 19 yds to the WMU 35 for a 1ST down
2.0%
0.0
Q4 5:36
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Kezion Dia-Johnson
2.0%
+0.1
Q4 5:36
Timeout Massachusetts, clock 05:36
2.1%
+0.1
Q4 5:30
AJ Hairston pass complete to Reece Adkins for 15 yds to the WMU 20 for a 1ST down
2.0%
-0.1
Q4 5:30
(05:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Hairston,AJ pass incomplete deep left to Massey,Kenyon thrown to WMU00 PENALTY WMU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from WMU20 to WMU15. NO PLAY.
2.1%
+0.1
Q4 5:30
AJ Hairston pass intercepted Domanick Moon return for no gain to the WMU 21
2.1%
0.0
WMU · Drive 20PUNT · 6 plays · 4 yds
Q4 5:22
Broc Lowry run for no gain to the WMU 21
0.7%
-1.4
Q4 4:40
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the WMU 25
0.7%
0.0
Q4 4:40
Timeout Massachusetts, clock 04:40
0.7%
0.0
Q4 4:36
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the WMU 25
0.7%
0.0
Q4 4:36
Timeout Massachusetts, clock 04:36
0.7%
0.0
Q4 4:28
Ryan Millmore punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MASS 40
0.7%
0.0
MASS · Drive 21DOWNS · 11 plays · 35 yds
Q4 4:22
AJ Hairston pass complete to Kenyon Massey for 9 yds to the MASS 49
2.0%
+1.2
Q4 3:52
AJ Hairston pass complete to Brandon Hood for 12 yds to the WMU 39 for a 1ST down
1.9%
-0.1
Q4 3:26
AJ Hairston pass complete to Donnie Gray for 8 yds to the WMU 31
2.0%
+0.1
Q4 3:03
AJ Hairston pass complete to Kenyon Massey for 8 yds to the WMU 23 for a 1ST down
2.1%
+0.1
Q4 2:27
AJ Hairston pass complete to Dallas Elliott for 14 yds to the WMU 9 for a 1ST down
2.1%
0.0
Q4 2:27
Timeout Massachusetts, clock 02:27
2.0%
-0.1
Q4 2:14
AJ Hairston run for 2 yds to the WMU 7
2.0%
0.0
Q4 1:59
AJ Hairston pass incomplete to Dallas Elliott
1.9%
-0.1
Q4 1:59
Timeout Massachusetts, clock 01:59
1.9%
0.0
Q4 1:06
AJ Hairston sacked by Tyson Lee for a loss of 5 yards to the WMU 12
1.9%
0.0
Q4 0:51
AJ Hairston sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the WMU 25
1.9%
0.0
WMU · Drive 22END OF GAME · 2 plays · -2 yds
Q4 0:19
B. Lowry takes a knee
0.8%
-1.1
Q4 0:00
B. Lowry takes a knee
0.8%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:23
Broc Lowry pass complete to Michael Brescia for 8 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
-14
TD · Q3 1:26
Broc Lowry run for 4 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
-13.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:33
Broc Lowry pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 15 yds to the MASS 35 for a 1ST down
-7.4