2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · InfoCision Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreCMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:37 · Brayden Johnson punt for 44 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Offense timeoutsDefense timeoutsHome team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:15: Kyan Mason 22 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick) — AKR win probability +4.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 8:34: Angel Flores run for 28 yds for a TD (Cade Graham KICK) — CMU win probability +6.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 3:13: Jordan Gant 16 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick) — AKR win probability +8.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q3 10:38: Max Whisner 1 Yd pass from Michael Johnson Jr. (Owen Wiley Kick) — AKR win probability +5.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- FG · Q4 1:33: Cade Graham 47 Yd Field Goal — CMU win probability +29.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 5CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 12:02CMU 4th & 18 at CMU 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snapGo for it64.9%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.1%average punt
- Q1 10:37AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 48, tiedClose callPunted · 35.4% before the snapGo for it35.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:46CMU 4th & 4 at AKR 28, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snapGo for it63.1%48% to convertField goalTheir call63.0%−0.160% to makePunt61.9%−1.2average punt
- Q1 0:40AKR 4th & 17 at CMU 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snapGo for it35.9%−0.814% to convertField goalTheir call36.7%56% to makePunt36.1%−0.6average punt
- Q2 14:45CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 29, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snapGo for it61.4%−0.625% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.0%average punt
- Q2 5:33AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 46, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt37.7%−2.1average punt
- Q3 8:29CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 46, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it22.3%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.6%average punt
- Q3 0:02CMU 4th & 7 at AKR 17, down 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.0% before the snapGo for it10.6%−0.935% to convertField goalTheir call11.5%80% to makePunt3.8%−7.7average punt
- Q4 10:27AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 28, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snapGo for it80.3%−0.836% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.1%average punt
- Q4 8:52CMU 4th & 17 at CMU 22, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snapGo for it11.2%−3.413% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.6%average punt
- Q4 4:12AKR 4th & 6 at CMU 39, up 9Close callPunted · 90.7% before the snapGo for it90.8%40% to convertField goal90.1%−0.736% to makePuntTheir call90.0%−0.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 12:15AKR Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call44.0%97% to makeGo for two43.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:34CMU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.3%97% to makeGo for two60.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:13AKR Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.7%97% to makeGo for two49.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:38AKR Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.0%97% to makeGo for two69.8%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCMUDrive 1Uncategorized9 plays · 11 yds · 2:5068% → 70%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
30.3%
Angel Flores pass incomplete to Trey Cornist, broken up by Shammond CooperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1730% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3FG9 plays · 64 yds · 4:4571% → 74%
Q1 9:04
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+5
27.7%
Akron Penalty, delay of game (Gage Summers) to the CMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4MISSED FG14 plays · 51 yds · 5:0125% → 22%
Q1 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+12
24.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Myles Walker for 12 yds to the AKR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
24.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Marcel Williams for 6 yds to the AKR 42Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+16
24.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 16 yds to the CMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-10
23.5%
Ben Finley sacked by Jaion Jackson for a loss of 10 yards to the CMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5578% → 78%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
21.8%
Central Michigan Penalty, false start (Jacob Booth) to the CMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:2221% → 27%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
21.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 16 yds to the AKR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7TD9 plays · 77 yds · 0:5674% → 82%
AKRDrive 8TD12 plays · 73 yds · 5:1018% → 28%
Q2 7:42
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+5
18.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 5 yds to the AKR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
18.8%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Marcel Williams, broken up by Elijah GordonSimilar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
19.8%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Marcel Williams, broken up by Jaion JacksonSimilar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+9
19.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 9 yds to the CMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9END OF HALF17 plays · 92 yds · 2:5973% → 82%
Q2 2:14
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-5
27.8%
Central Michigan Penalty, false start (Martin Koivisto) to the CMU 23Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+28
19.6%
Joe Labas pass complete to Tyson Davis for 28 yds to the AKR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
18.2%
Joe Labas pass complete to Tommy McIntosh for 4 yds to the AKR 45Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+11
17.6%
Joe Labas pass complete to Tyson Davis for 11 yds to the AKR 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
16.8%
Joe Labas pass incomplete to Tommy McIntosh, broken up by Terence ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
17.2%
Joe Labas sacked by Cyrus Durham for a loss of 4 yards to the AKR 28Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+14
19.6%
Joe Labas pass incomplete to Langston Lewis for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, roughing passer (Cyrus Durham) to the AKR 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
17.1%
Joe Labas pass complete to Tyson Davis for 12 yds to the AKR 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-64
17.8%
Central Michigan Penalty, intentional grounding (Angel Flores) to the CMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10TD9 plays · 84 yds · 4:1428% → 39%
AKRDrive 11INT6 plays · 16 yds · 16:1754% → 91%
CMUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 2:0041% → 38%
AKRDrive 13TD10 plays · 83 yds · 4:4859% → 76%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
59.2%
Jordan Gant run for 1 yd to the AKR 18 for a 1ST down Central Michigan Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Kwiatkowski) to the AKR 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
59.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Cameron Monteiro for 11 yds to the AKR 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+27
61.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Marcel Williams for 27 yds to the CMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+7
67.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Myles Walker for 7 yds to the CMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
74.6%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass complete to Conner Cravaack for 2 yds to the CMU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14FG9 plays · 58 yds · 3:3030% → 20%
Q3 0:52
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-5
75.4%
Central Michigan Penalty, false start (Matthew Nehf) to the AKR 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15TD7 plays · 37 yds · 2:0218% → 49%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
82.2%
Angel Flores pass complete to Nahree Biggins for a loss of 1 yard to the AKR 38Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+16
83.2%
Brock Townsend run for 1 yd to the AKR 37 for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Kiawan Murphy) to the AKR 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0862% → 59%
CMUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2537% → 30%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
63.3%
Joe Labas pass incomplete to Tyson Davis, broken up by DiMarco Johnson Central Michigan Penalty, Offensive holding (Martin Koivisto) to the CMU 19Similar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 20
OWN 19
0
64.8%
Joe Labas pass incomplete to Tayte Vanderleest, broken up by Malcom DeWalt IVSimilar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 20
OWN 19
-8
65.4%
Joe Labas sacked by Gage Summers for a loss of 8 yards to the CMU 11Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 28
OWN 11
+11
69.2%
Joe Labas pass complete to Tayte Vanderleest for 11 yds to the CMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT11 plays · 29 yds · 4:3281% → 93%
Q4 7:27
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+15
81.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Cameron Monteiro for 15 yds to the AKR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+6
92.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jordan Gant for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
94.0%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Kyan Mason, broken up by Kalen CarrollSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19FG11 plays · 60 yds · 2:3215% → 53%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+21
85.2%
Joe Labas pass complete to Justin Ruffin Jr. for 21 yds to the CMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
87.0%
Joe Labas pass complete to Langston Lewis for 4 yds to the CMU 36Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+5
88.0%
Joe Labas pass incomplete to DeCorion Temple Akron Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the CMU 41Similar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-9
91.2%
Joe Labas sacked by Julien Laventure for a loss of 9 yards to the CMU 35Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 19
OWN 35
+27
92.3%
Joe Labas pass complete to Nasir Williams for 27 yds to the AKR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
91.0%
Joe Labas pass complete to Nahree Biggins for 2 yds to the AKR 36Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
74.1%
Joe Labas pass incomplete to Nasir Williams, broken up by DiMarco Johnson Akron Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the AKR 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20Uncategorized4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5262% → 72%
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:33
Cade Graham 47 Yd Field Goal
-29.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+27.8
TD · Q2 3:13
Jordan Gant 16 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)
+8.3