2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreEMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:25 · Rudy Kessinger 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:03: Nahree Biggins run for 49 yds for a TD (Cade Graham KICK) — CMU win probability +6.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:46: Angel Flores pass complete to Langston Lewis for 2 yds for a TD (Cade Graham KICK) — CMU win probability +12.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 5:57: Timeout Central Michigan, clock 05:57 — CMU win probability +11.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:45: Noah Kim 14 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick) — EMU win probability +9.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 7:08: Cade Graham 22 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +2.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10EMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 7:54EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 34, down 7Close callPunted · 37.4% before the snapGo for it37.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 1:25EMU 4th & 19 at CMU 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.6% before the snapGo for it29.2%−1.411% to convertField goalTheir call30.7%68% to makePunt27.0%−3.6average punt
- Q2 12:05CMU 4th & 1 at EMU 4, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.4%65% to convertField goal67.4%−2.093% to makePunt62.3%−7.1average punt
- Q2 5:57EMU 4th & 8 at CMU 20, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.9% before the snapGo for it19.8%−1.032% to convertField goalTheir call20.8%75% to makePunt14.5%−6.2average punt
- Q2 3:02CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 37, up 15Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snapGo for it80.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.9%−1.0average punt
- Q2 3:02CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 37, up 15Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snapGo for it80.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.9%−1.0average punt
- Q2 1:09EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 29, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it18.0%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.5%average punt
- Q2 0:04CMU 4th & 5 at EMU 19, up 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snapGo for it81.9%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call82.0%77% to makePunt79.3%−2.8average punt
- Q3 9:08CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 34, up 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call76.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt75.5%−1.4average punt
- Q3 6:19CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 42, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snapGo for it79.3%−0.741% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.1%average punt
- Q3 5:35EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 30, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snapGo for it21.2%−0.741% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.8%average punt
- Q3 3:47CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 36, up 8Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it82.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.4%−2.4average punt
- Q3 3:47CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 36, up 8Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it82.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.4%−2.4average punt
- Q4 11:09CMU 4th & 1 at EMU 38, up 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.2%70% to convertField goal82.2%−4.038% to makePunt82.1%−4.1average punt
- Q4 7:08CMU 4th & 4 at EMU 4, up 8Close callKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snapGo for it89.8%40% to convertField goalTheir call89.2%−0.693% to makePunt83.0%−6.9average punt
- Q4 4:17EMU 4th & 4 at CMU 23, down 11Close callKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.7%47% to convertField goalTheir call6.8%−0.970% to makePunt5.0%−2.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3EMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:36CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.6%97% to makeGo for two61.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:03CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.0%97% to makeGo for two66.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:46CMU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.2%97% to makeGo for two79.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:45EMU Touchdown, down 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.5%97% to makeGo for two25.4%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCMUDrive 1TD10 plays · 75 yds · 5:1556% → 59%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
56.3%
Joe Labas pass complete to Tommy McIntosh for 47 yds to the EMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+4
57.0%
Joe Labas pass complete to Brock Townsend for 4 yds to the EMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.4%
Joe Labas pass complete to Brock Townsend for 1 yd for a TD (Cade Graham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2841% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4359% → 67%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4FG12 plays · 51 yds · 3:3036% → 37%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
64.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nick Devereaux for 11 yds to the EMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+31
63.5%
Noah Kim pass complete to Porter Rooks for 16 yds to the CMU 41 for a 1ST down Central Michigan Penalty, Blocking Out Of Bounds (Jaion Jackson) to the CMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 10
OPP 15
-15
64.3%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the CMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5TD16 plays · 75 yds · 5:3363% → 81%
EMUDrive 6FG14 plays · 69 yds · 4:3423% → 27%
Q2 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+4
76.6%
Noah Kim pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 4 yds to the EMU 16Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+8
76.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nick Devereaux for 8 yds to the EMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+15
77.5%
Noah Kim pass complete to Ben Prosper for 15 yds to the EMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
76.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Dontae McMillan for 22 yds to the CMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4585% → 87%
EMUDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 14 yds · 1:3720% → 19%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
79.8%
Noah Kim sacked by Michael Heldman for a loss of 3 yards to the EMU 12Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+13
80.5%
Noah Kim pass complete to Porter Rooks for 13 yds to the EMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+11
81.5%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 43 yds , Caleb Spann returns for 11 yds to the CMU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9MISSED FG11 plays · 42 yds · 1:0286% → 84%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
86.4%
Joe Labas pass complete to Nahree Biggins for 5 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+6
86.4%
Joe Labas pass complete to Langston Lewis for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
50
+12
86.9%
Joe Labas pass complete to Langston Lewis for 12 yds to the EMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
87.0%
Joe Labas pass complete to Langston Lewis for 5 yds to the EMU 33Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+5
84.3%
Joe Labas pass complete to Nahree Biggins for 5 yds to the EMU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · 2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11TD12 plays · 69 yds · 4:0122% → 31%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
78.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Joshua Long for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-5
76.5%
PENALTY EMU False Start (Snively,Owen) 5 yards from CMU44 to CMU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+15
78.6%
(12:30) Shotgun Kim,Noah pass incomplete short right to Long,Joshua thrown to CMU30 PENALTY CMU Pass Interference (Rikard,Elijah) 15 yards from CMU44 to CMU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+7
78.4%
Noah Kim pass complete to Dontae McMillan for 7 yds to the CMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 4:2174% → 78%
Q3 6:19
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+33
77.6%
Declan Duley punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMU 40 Eastern Michigan Penalty, Blocking Out Of Bounds (Joey Mattord) to the EMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3025% → 23%
CMUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4378% → 80%
Q3 4:47
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+8
79.6%
Joe Labas pass complete to Langston Lewis for 8 yds to the CMU 34Similar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+11
79.8%
Declan Duley punt for 50 yds , Juan Salas returns for 11 yds to the EMU 25Similar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+11
79.8%
Declan Duley punt for 50 yds , Juan Salas returns for 11 yds to the EMU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15INT8 plays · 43 yds · 3:3322% → 22%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
79.6%
Noah Kim pass complete to Dontae McMillan for 4 yds to the EMU 27Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+12
79.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nick Devereaux for 12 yds to the EMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
50
0
77.6%
Noah Kim pass intercepted Maddix Blackwell return for no gain to the CMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16FG17 plays · 72 yds · 7:5283% → 96%
EMUDrive 17MISSED FG10 plays · 57 yds · 2:348% → 8%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
91.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Ben Prosper for 19 yds to the EMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+10
90.3%
(05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Kim,Noah pass incomplete short right to Long,Joshua thrown to CMU29, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CMU Pass Interference (Spann,Caleb) 10 yards from CMU39 to CMU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18Uncategorized11 plays · 56 yds · 3:3398% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:46
Angel Flores pass complete to Langston Lewis for 2 yds for a TD (Cade Graham KICK)
+12
FG · Q2 5:57
Timeout Central Michigan, clock 05:57
+11.3
TD · Q3 10:45
Noah Kim 14 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)
-9.3