Try the model
AKR

Akron 3 at Toledo 45

TOL
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Glass Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreAKR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:29 · Joseph Castle punt for 41 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 5 yds to the TOL 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Pregame prior+41.0Home team on offense+2.8Score differential+0.9Blowout margin+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:59: Chip Trayanum run for 11 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +0.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:41: Tucker Gleason run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +2.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:27: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +1.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 1:56: Owen Wiley 39 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +3.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:23: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 5AKR made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 13:32AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:29AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:29AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:06TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:42AKR 4th & 27 at AKR 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:45AKR 4th & 17 at AKR 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:38AKR 4th & 11 at TOL 36, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    42% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:56AKR 4th & 20 at TOL 21, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    -1.1%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:53AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 27, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:55TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 48, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:56AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 28, down 32
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:51TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 30, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:41AKR 4th & 2 at TOL 44, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:12TOL 4th & 3 at AKR 23, up 32
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:43AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 25, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:14AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 43, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:49TOL 4th & 8 at AKR 33, up 42
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:34AKR 4th & 4 at TOL 49, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 14:44TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:59TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:41TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:27TOL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:23TOL Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:48TOL Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1TD
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
94.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 28 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:526% → 6%
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
94.2%
Jordan Gant run for a loss of 2 yards to the AKR 27Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+4
94.2%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass complete to Marcel Williams for 4 yds to the AKR 31Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
94.1%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan GantSimilar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
94.1%
Joseph Castle punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 3:2594% → 94%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
94.1%
Chip Trayanum run for 10 yds to the TOL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
94.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Terrell Crosby Jr. for 19 yds to the AKR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
94.0%
Chip Trayanum run for no gain to the AKR 47Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+17
93.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 17 yds to the AKR 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
93.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 20 yds to the AKR 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
93.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for a loss of 1 yard to the AKR 11Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
94.2%
Chip Trayanum run for 11 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 2:196% → 6%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
94.0%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the AKR 24Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
93.9%
Jordan Gant run for 6 yds to the AKR 30Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
94.0%
Jordan Gant run for 4 yds to the AKR 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
94.0%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass incomplete to Marcel WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
94.0%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the AKR 36Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
94.1%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass incomplete to Israel PolkSimilar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+5
94.1%
Joseph Castle punt for 41 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 5 yds to the TOL 28Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+2
94.1%
Joseph Castle punt for 41 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 2 yds to the TOL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1794% → 94%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
94.2%
Kenji Christian run for no gain to the TOL 15Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
94.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 5 yds to the TOL 20Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
94.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jacob PetersenSimilar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
94.1%
Emilio Duran punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Terence Thomas at the TOL 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 2:156% → 6%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
93.8%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 12
50
-10
93.9%
Michael Johnson Jr. sacked by Jeremiah Peters for a loss of 10 yards to the AKR 40Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 22
OWN 40
-5
94.0%
PENALTY AKRON Delay Of Game (Johnson Jr.,Michael) 5 yards from AKRON40 to AKRON35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 27
OWN 35
0
93.9%
Jordan Gant run for no gain to the AKR 35Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 27
OWN 35
+13
94.0%
Joseph Castle punt for 53 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 13 yds to the TOL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4494% → 96%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Kenji Christian for 2 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+21
94.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 21 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
94.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 14 yds to the AKR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
94.3%
Chip Trayanum run for 13 yds to the AKR 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
94.3%
Chip Trayanum run for 4 yds to the AKR 21Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
94.3%
Chip Trayanum run for 6 yds to the AKR 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
94.3%
Kenji Christian run for 3 yds to the AKR 12Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+6
94.3%
Kenji Christian run for 6 yds to the AKR 6Similar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
94.2%
Kenji Christian run for 3 yds to the AKR 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
94.3%
(14:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Trayanum,Chip rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AKRON01 fumbled by Trayanum,Chip at AKRON01 forced by Hull,Ronald recovered by AKRON Dall,Bruno at AKRON01, End Of Play PENALTY AKRON Offside (Murphy,CJ) 1 yard from AKRON03 to AKRON02. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.3%
Tucker Gleason run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:504% → 4%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.0%
Toledo Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the AKR 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
95.9%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass complete to Jordan Gant for 1 yd to the AKR 42Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-8
96.1%
Michael Johnson Jr. sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the AKR 34Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 17
OWN 34
0
96.3%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass incomplete to Israel PolkSimilar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
96.3%
Joseph Castle punt blocked by Isaac Zay blocked by Isaac Zay Brayden Johnson return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:5697% → 98%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
50
+13
96.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 13 yds to the AKR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
96.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 11 yds to the AKR 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
98.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10FG
20 plays · 54 yds · 8:122% → 5%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.2%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 5 yds to the AKR 30Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
98.2%
Jordan Gant run for 4 yds to the AKR 34Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
98.2%
Jordan Gant run for 1 yd to the AKR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
98.3%
Jordan Gant run for 5 yds to the AKR 40Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
98.6%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
50
+7
98.7%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the TOL 43Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+8
98.7%
Marquese Williams run for 8 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
98.7%
Marquese Williams run for 1 yd to the TOL 34Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
98.8%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass incomplete to Cameron MonteiroSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 9
OPP 34
-2
98.9%
Jordan Gant run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 36Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+15
99.0%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass complete to Kyan Mason for 15 yds to the TOL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
98.9%
Jordan Gant run for no gain to the TOL 21Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
98.8%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the TOL 16Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 5
OPP 16
-19
98.8%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the TOL 13 for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jayme Motley-Simmons) to the TOL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-4
98.9%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the TOL 15Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 14
OPP 15
0
99.0%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass incomplete to Cameron MonteiroSimilar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 14
OPP 15
-6
99.1%
Marquese Williams run for a loss of 6 yards to the TOL 21Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 20
OPP 21
+39
95.3%
Owen Wiley 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 1:1998% → 99%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
97.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 12 yds to the TOL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
98.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacob Petersen for 28 yds to the AKR 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
98.2%
(01:14) No Huddle Gleason,Tucker rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AKRON28, End Of Play PENALTY TOLEDO False Start (Rhett,Cole) 5 yards from AKRON32 to AKRON37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+11
98.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 11 yds to the AKR 26Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+26
99.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-25
99.1%
Toledo Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Eric Holley III) to the TOL 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.4%
M. Johnson Jr. takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:401% → 1%
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass complete to Jordan Gant for no gain to the AKR 25Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.2%
Jordan Gant run for 7 yds to the AKR 32Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
99.2%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass complete to Marquese Williams for 5 yds to the AKR 27Similar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.3%
Joseph Castle punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:5299% → 100%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
99.3%
Chip Trayanum run for 9 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+6
99.3%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the TOL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.4%
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the TOL 38Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+8
99.4%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 8 yds to the TOL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.5%
John Alan Richter run for 3 yds to the TOL 49Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-1
99.6%
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 48Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
99.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
99.5%
Emilio Duran punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:511% → 1%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Jordan Gant run for no gain to the AKR 20Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
99.5%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass complete to Cameron Monteiro for 8 yds to the AKR 28Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
99.4%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the AKR 28Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
99.5%
Joseph Castle punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.6%
Kenji Christian run for 5 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-2
99.6%
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 25Similar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 5 yds to the TOL 30Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Emilio Duran punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17FUMBLE
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:161% → 0%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
99.3%
Brayden Roggow pass complete to Israel Polk for 14 yds to the AKR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.2%
Marquese Williams run for 5 yds to the AKR 41Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+7
99.1%
Cam Macon run for 7 yds to the AKR 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.3%
Brayden Roggow pass incomplete to Israel PolkSimilar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
99.4%
Brayden Roggow pass complete to Luke Reed for 7 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+1
99.7%
Cam Macon run for 1 yd to the TOL 44Similar
Q3 2:41
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+2
99.7%
Brayden Roggow pass complete to Israel Polk for 2 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
99.8%
Cam Macon run for 7 yds to the TOL 35 Cam Macon fumbled, recovered by AKR Nasir BowersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18FG
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
99.8%
Tucker Gleason run for 35 yds to the AKR 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
99.8%
Connor Walendzak run for 7 yds to the AKR 23Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
99.8%
Connor Walendzak run for no gain to the AKR 23Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
99.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to CC EzirimSimilar
Q3 0:12
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+40
99.8%
Dylan Cunanan 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:210% → 0%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Brayden Roggow pass incomplete to Cameron MonteiroSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
99.9%
Brayden Roggow pass complete to Myles Walker for 7 yds to the AKR 25Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Brayden Roggow pass incomplete to Myles WalkerSimilar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+28
99.9%
Joseph Castle punt for 48 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 28 yds to the AKR 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
99.8%
Kalieb Osborne run for 17 yds to the AKR 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.9%
Connor Walendzak run for 3 yds to the AKR 25Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+4
99.9%
Connor Walendzak run for 4 yds to the AKR 21Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne run for 21 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
99.9%
Jordan Gant run for a loss of 2 yards to the AKR 38Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Brayden Roggow pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
Brayden Roggow pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 5 yds to the AKR 43Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Joseph Castle punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22MISSED FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:12100% → 100%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne pass complete to Julian Allen for 6 yds to the TOL 21Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
99.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 5 yds to the TOL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne pass incomplete to Julian AllenSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+36
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne pass complete to Tashi Braceful for 36 yds to the AKR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the AKR 32Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
99.9%
Mike Drennen II run for 4 yds to the AKR 28Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-5
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the AKR 33Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+51
99.9%
Dylan Cunanan 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:060% → 0%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
Cam Macon run for 1 yd to the AKR 34Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+11
99.9%
Brayden Roggow pass complete to Marcel Williams for 11 yds to the AKR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
Cam Macon run for 1 yd to the AKR 46Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Brayden Roggow pass complete to Myles Walker for 5 yds to the TOL 49Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Brayden Roggow pass incomplete to Kyan MasonSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Joseph Castle punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 58 yds · 4:25100% → 100%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
99.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 13 yds to the TOL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 4 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne run for 9 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
100.0%
Mike Drennen II run for 4 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+8
100.0%
Mike Drennen II run for 8 yds to the AKR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
100.0%
Jake DeHaan run for 13 yds to the AKR 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
100.0%
Mike Drennen II run for 7 yds to the AKR 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 1:56
Owen Wiley 39 yd FG GOOD
-3.6
TD · Q2 13:41
Tucker Gleason run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
+2
TD · Q2 10:27
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com