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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadDUQ aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreDUQ score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:09 · Michael Hartshorn run for a loss of 11 yards to the DUQ 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOffense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:02: Jordan Gant 17 Yd Run (Owen Wiley Kick) — AKR win probability +1.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- FG · Q1 0:41: Owen Wiley 27 Yd Field Goal — AKR win probability +8.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 12:11: Kyan Mason 20 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick) — AKR win probability +14.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:18: Malcom DeWalt IV 22 Yd Interception Return (Owen Wiley Kick) — AKR win probability +2.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: DUQ has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:34: Jordan Gant 9 Yd Run (Owen Wiley Kick) — AKR win probability +2.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 6DUQ made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 10:44DUQ 4th & 5 at DUQ 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snapGo for it24.1%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.2%average punt
- Q1 9:44AKR 4th & 4 at DUQ 49, tiedClose callPunted · 75.5% before the snapGo for it75.5%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:09DUQ 4th & 2 at DUQ 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt24.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:22DUQ 4th & 17 at DUQ 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snapGo for it22.3%−0.413% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.7%average punt
- Q1 5:17AKR 4th & 19 at AKR 37, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snapGo for it76.1%−0.711% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.8%average punt
- Q1 3:22DUQ 4th & 7 at DUQ 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snapGo for it22.3%−0.335% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.7%average punt
- Q1 0:41AKR 4th & 2 at DUQ 9, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 77.2% before the snapGo for it77.1%54% to convertField goalTheir call76.7%−0.489% to makePunt74.3%−2.8average punt
- Q2 9:46DUQ 4th & 15 at DUQ 20, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snapGo for it8.3%−1.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%average punt
- Q3 10:08DUQ 4th & 4 at AKR 4, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%40% to convertField goal1.3%−<0.193% to makePunt0.7%−0.6average punt
- Q3 3:52AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 42, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 1:45DUQ 4th & 4 at DUQ 12, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 13:13AKR 4th & 5 at DUQ 5, up 38Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%92% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 10:22DUQ 4th & 13 at DUQ 32, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:07AKR 4th & 5 at DUQ 23, up 41Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%40% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−<0.170% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 2:00DUQ 4th & 1 at DUQ 48, down 44Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 6 of 6DUQ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 8:02AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.6%97% to makeGo for two76.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:11AKR Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.7%97% to makeGo for two82.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:18AKR Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.2%97% to makeGo for two90.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:34AKR Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:24AKR Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:05AKR Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:20DUQ Touchdown, down 39 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.5%97% to makeGo for two0.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1INT9 plays · 60 yds · 2:3279% → 76%
Q1 14:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
78.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Myles Walker for 19 yds to the AKR 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 8
50
+8
77.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Myles Walker for 8 yds to the DUQ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
76.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 20 yds to the DUQ 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
75.9%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Marcel Williams, broken up by DJ Cerisier Akron Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the DUQ 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3125% → 27%
Q1 10:44
4TH & 5
OWN 16
+6
73.5%
Michael Berarducci punt for 45 yds , Sean Patrick returns for 6 yds to the AKR 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5674% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 4DOWNS4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2628% → 29%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
71.7%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to B.J. Alexander for 7 yds to the DUQ 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5TD1 play · 17 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3327% → 29%
Q1 7:06
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-9
72.1%
Tyler Riddell sacked by Ben Kamara for a loss of 9 yards to the DUQ 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 0:5470% → 68%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
69.7%
Sean Patrick run for no gain to the AKR 46 Akron Penalty, personal foul (Delvin Morris) to the AKR 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4930% → 31%
Q1 4:29
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+4
69.1%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Garrett Harrold for 4 yds to the DUQ 27Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
68.4%
Tyler Riddell pass incomplete to Noah Canty, broken up by Ben KamaraSimilar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 7
OWN 22
+15
68.6%
Michael Berarducci punt for 42 yds , Sean Patrick returns for 15 yds to the AKR 37 Akron Penalty, Offensive holding (Malcom DeWalt IV) to the AKR 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9FG8 plays · 50 yds · 2:2466% → 69%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+27
62.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 27 yds Ben Finley fumbled, recovered by AKR for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
62.8%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Jake Newell, broken up by DJ CerisierSimilar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 2
OPP 9
0
60.8%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan Gant, broken up by TJ JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 10INT9 plays · 36 yds · 2:1934% → 35%
Q2 14:14
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+8
66.0%
Tyler Riddell pass incomplete to Khiryn Boyd, broken up by Rodrick Hunter for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Elijah Reed) to the DUQ 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+12
64.6%
Tyler Riddell pass incomplete to Joey Isabella for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Alex Branch) to the DUQ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11TD4 plays · 56 yds · 1:0968% → 83%
Q2 12:58
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+22
67.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Sean Patrick for 22 yds to the DUQ 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 12TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5320% → 17%
DUQDrive 13PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 1:3217% → 14%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14TD4 plays · 53 yds · 1:0886% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 15Uncategorized13 plays · 45 yds · 6:165% → 2%
Q2 6:16
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+7
96.2%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Jermaine Johnson for 7 yds to the DUQ 42Similar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
97.3%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Joey Isabella for 2 yds to the AKR 45Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+7
97.4%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to B.J. Alexander for 7 yds to the AKR 38Similar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
97.3%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Ness Davis for 3 yds to the AKR 30Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
97.9%
Tyler Riddell pass incomplete to Joey Isabella, broken up by Ben KamaraSimilar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-10
98.0%
Tyler Riddell sacked by Rodrick Hunter for a loss of 10 yards to the AKR 40 Tyler Riddell fumbled, recovered by AKR Cyrus Durham , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16TD7 plays · 60 yds · 1:4597% → 98%
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+10
95.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Myles Walker for 10 yds to the DUQ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
96.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Myles Walker for 20 yds to the DUQ 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-5
96.6%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Jake Newell Akron Penalty, illegal forward pass (Jake Newell) to the DUQ 20Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+12
96.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Sean Patrick for 12 yds to the DUQ 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 17END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 18DOWNS11 plays · 71 yds · 4:501% → 1%
Q3 12:26
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+12
98.9%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Joey Isabella for 12 yds to the AKR 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
98.9%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Jermaine Johnson for 10 yds to the AKR 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.8%
Tyler Riddell pass incomplete to B.J. Alexander, broken up by Malcom DeWalt IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19TD6 plays · 96 yds · 3:0099% → 100%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+33
99.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 33 yds to the DUQ 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 20TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:420% → 1%
Q3 5:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.1%
Logan Kushner pass incomplete to Garrett Harrold, broken up by Bruno DallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Marcel Williams, broken up by Donovan StanleySimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Marquese Williams, broken up by Ethon ColeSimilar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass incomplete to Jean Louis III, broken up by Nico PateSimilar
Q3 3:52
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Brayden Johnson punt for 52 yds , Joey Isabella returns for no gain to the DUQ 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:570% → 0%
AKRDrive 23FG9 plays · 33 yds · 3:17100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 2:490% → 0%
Q4 10:38
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Logan Kushner pass incomplete to Khiryn Boyd, broken up by Terence ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25FG10 plays · 47 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
99.9%
Brayden Roggow pass complete to Conner Cravaack for 7 yds to the AKR 37Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+8
99.9%
Brayden Roggow pass complete to Jean Louis III for 8 yds to the DUQ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
99.9%
Brayden Roggow pass complete to Marquese Williams for 15 yds to the DUQ 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 26PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 3:020% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 27Uncategorized3 plays · 12 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:11
Kyan Mason 20 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)
+14.9
FG · Q1 0:41
Owen Wiley 27 Yd Field Goal
+8.1
TD · Q2 11:18
Malcom DeWalt IV 22 Yd Interception Return (Owen Wiley Kick)
+2.7