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TOL

Toledo 13 at Western Michigan 14

WMU
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:40 · Emilio Duran punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the TOL 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 175Pregame prior−1.2Home team on offense−31.8Garbage-time factor−17.4Score differential−4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−14.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:28: Chip Trayanum run for 63 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +7.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:48: Broc Lowry run for 6 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke PAT MISSED) — WMU win probability +11.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:52: Broc Lowry run for 2 yds for a TD (B. Lowry Run For Two-point Conversion) — WMU win probability +68.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. FUMBLE · Q4 0:36: Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the TOL 34 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by TOL Anthony Boswell — TOL win probability +8.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: Defense has -4 timeouts left).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: (00:17) Kneel down by Western Mich. at TOL37 for loss of 1 yard. — WMU win probability +16.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TOL made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
  1. Q1 11:41WMU 4th & 18 at WMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:50TOL 4th & 2 at WMU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    74.6%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:22TOL 4th & 21 at WMU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:44WMU 4th & 12 at WMU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:15WMU 4th & 1 at TOL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.5%−1.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−5.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:00TOL 4th & 10 at WMU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:22TOL 4th & 9 at WMU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−1.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    60.9%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:31WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:46TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:43TOL 4th & 5 at WMU 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    71.8%−6.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:52WMU 4th & 17 at WMU 18, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:35TOL 4th & 9 at WMU 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:45TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:30WMU 4th & 12 at WMU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−2.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:30TOL 4th & 11 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:30TOL 4th & 11 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:10WMU 4th & 7 at TOL 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−3.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−7.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:40TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:12WMU 4th & 10 at TOL 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.0%−2.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:19TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.4%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:19TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.4%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 14:28TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:48WMU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    24.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:52WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 5.4 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    43.4%−5.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 3:1115% → 16%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the WMU 30Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
15.5%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the WMU 31Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
15.6%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 5 yds to the WMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
15.8%
Devin Miles run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMU 33Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
16.0%
Talique Williams run for no gain to the WMU 33Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
16.2%
Broc Lowry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 13
OWN 33
-5
16.1%
PENALTY WMU False Start (Franklin,Josh) 5 yards from WMU33 to WMU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
16.2%
Ryan Millmore punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2INT
14 plays · 55 yds · 5:5684% → 81%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.5%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the TOL 26Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
16.6%
Chip Trayanum run for 7 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
16.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 4 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
17.1%
Chip Trayanum run for 20 yds to the WMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
17.0%
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the WMU 38Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+6
17.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Chip Trayanum for 6 yds to the WMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
17.3%
Kenji Christian run for 4 yds to the WMU 28Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
17.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 1 yd to the WMU 27Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+3
17.8%
Kenji Christian run for 3 yds to the WMU 24Similar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+3
18.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Connor Jones for 3 yds to the WMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
18.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
18.2%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the WMU 20Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
18.8%
Tucker Gleason pass intercepted Joey Pope return for no gain to the WMU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3INT
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:1319% → 20%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
19.3%
Broc Lowry run for 8 yds to the WMU 15Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+15
19.9%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Cade Conley for 15 yds to the WMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
20.2%
Broc Lowry pass intercepted Andre Fuller return for no gain to the TOL 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:2581% → 78%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
19.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 7 yds to the WMU 46Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+10
19.4%
Tucker Gleason run for 10 yds to the WMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
19.6%
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the WMU 31Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-10
19.4%
(02:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker pass incomplete deep left to Vandeross III,Junior thrown to WMU00 QB hurried by Fisher,Kershawn PENALTY TOL Holding (Rhett,Cole) 10 yards from WMU31 to WMU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 15
OPP 41
-7
20.1%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Joshua Franklin for a loss of 7 yards to the WMU 48Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 22
OPP 48
+1
20.7%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the WMU 47Similar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 21
OPP 47
0
21.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the WMU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:3122% → 24%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
22.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMU 8Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+5
22.2%
PENALTY TOL Offside (Ray Jr.,Doran) 5 yards from WMU08 to WMU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+1
23.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the WMU 14Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+6
22.5%
Jalen Buckley run for 6 yds to the WMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
23.6%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 7 yds to the WMU 13Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+1
23.8%
Broc Lowry run for 1 yd to the WMU 14Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+4
23.6%
Devin Miles run for 4 yds to the WMU 18Similar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+11
23.5%
Ryan Millmore punt for 52 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 11 yds to the TOL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6INT
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:2678% → 77%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
22.4%
Kenji Christian run for 21 yds to the WMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
22.0%
Kenji Christian run for 6 yds to the WMU 32Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+2
21.6%
Kenji Christian run for 2 yds to the WMU 30Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+2
22.5%
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the WMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
22.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Terrell Crosby Jr. for 8 yds to the WMU 20Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+4
22.3%
Chip Trayanum run for 4 yds to the WMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
22.5%
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the WMU 14Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+1
22.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the WMU 13Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+1
23.0%
Tucker Gleason pass intercepted John Peters return for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7DOWNS
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:4427% → 32%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
26.7%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 6 yds to the WMU 14Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+5
27.3%
Ofa Mataele run for 5 yds to the WMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
27.9%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Terence MarshallSimilar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
27.9%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Ofa Mataele for 2 yds to the WMU 21Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+8
27.5%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Christian Leary for 8 yds to the WMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
29.0%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Malique DieudonneSimilar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-3
28.8%
Broc Lowry sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the WMU 26Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+38
28.2%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 38 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
32.5%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Jalen BuckleySimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
32.5%
Broc Lowry run for 9 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
32.6%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Malique DieudonneSimilar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
31.6%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the TOL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 29 yds · 2:1073% → 70%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
27.5%
Kenji Christian run for 3 yds to the TOL 30Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
27.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Javon BrownSimilar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+11
28.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 11 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
26.4%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
27.1%
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+10
27.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Terrell Crosby Jr. for 10 yds to the WMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
26.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Kenji ChristianSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
26.6%
Kenji Christian run for no gain to the WMU 44Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
27.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Terrell Crosby Jr.Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 10
OPP 44
+32
29.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 31 yds , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for no gain to the WMU 12 Keivin Boone-Nelson II fumbled, recovered by TOL James RoeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9FG
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:3173% → 73%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
27.5%
Chip Trayanum run for 4 yds to the WMU 8Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+2
27.7%
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the WMU 6Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 4
OPP 6
-5
28.2%
PENALTY TOL False Start (Petersen,Jacob) 5 yards from WMU06 to WMU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
28.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jacob PetersenSimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+30
27.4%
Dylan Cunanan 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:1827% → 27%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
26.9%
Broc Lowry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-7
26.8%
Broc Lowry sacked by Malachi Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the WMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2474% → 83%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
26.5%
Chip Trayanum run for 12 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
17.1%
Chip Trayanum run for 63 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5117% → 17%
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.4%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Talique WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.3%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the WMU 27Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
16.6%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Talique WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
16.5%
Ryan Millmore punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4083% → 83%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
17.3%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the TOL 33Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+15
17.1%
Western Michigan Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Joshua Franklin) to the TOL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
16.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
16.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Kenji ChristianSimilar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+2
16.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Kenji Christian for 2 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 8
OWN 48
+2
17.2%
Emilio Duran punt for 42 yds , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for 2 yds to the WMU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:1917% → 16%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
16.6%
Ofa Mataele run for 4 yds to the WMU 16Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
16.6%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Ofa Mataele for no gain to the WMU 16Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+9
16.3%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Cade Conley for 9 yds Cade Conley fumbled, recovered by TOL Andre FullerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:3284% → 88%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
15.8%
Kenji Christian run for no gain to the WMU 25Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+11
16.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Kenji Christian for 11 yds to the WMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
15.9%
Kenji Christian run for 2 yds to the WMU 12Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+3
15.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the WMU 9Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
16.4%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Chip TrayanumSimilar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
12.0%
Dylan Cunanan 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4315% → 14%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
14.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the WMU 27Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
14.7%
Broc Lowry run for no gain to the WMU 27Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-9
14.0%
Broc Lowry sacked by Malachi Davis for a loss of 9 yards to the WMU 18Similar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+6
13.9%
Ryan Millmore punt for 37 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 6 yds to the WMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0490% → 89%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
9.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for no gain to the WMU 49Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
9.7%
Kenji Christian run for 1 yd to the WMU 48Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
9.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Chip TrayanumSimilar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
10.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the WMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 3:3614% → 27%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+24
13.6%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 24 yds to the WMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
14.0%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Christian Leary for 15 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
14.4%
Devin Miles run for 2 yds to the TOL 49Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+13
14.6%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Lowry,Broc pass incomplete short middle to Williams,Tailique thrown to TOL34, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Fuller,Andre) 13 yards from TOL49 to TOL36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+24
14.5%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Blake Bosma for 24 yds to the TOL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
15.5%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Blake Bosma for 5 yds to the TOL 7Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+1
15.5%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the TOL 6Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
27.4%
Broc Lowry run for 6 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:4580% → 78%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
19.7%
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 22Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
20.5%
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the TOL 24Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
21.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jacob PetersenSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
21.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the WMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:0422% → 20%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
22.4%
Broc Lowry run for 7 yds to the WMU 42Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
24.7%
Broc Lowry run for 5 yds to the WMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
24.9%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Jalen BuckleySimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-2
24.4%
Jalen Buckley run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 45Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
21.5%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Aveion ChenaultSimilar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
20.4%
Ryan Millmore punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:5081% → 83%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
18.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 4 yds to the TOL 22Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+16
18.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Terrell Crosby Jr. for 16 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
16.7%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+6
16.2%
Tucker Gleason run for 6 yds to the TOL 47Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
15.1%
Chip Trayanum run for 4 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-17
13.5%
Tucker Gleason sacked for a loss of 17 yards to the TOL 34Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 27
OWN 34
+6
16.7%
Chip Trayanum run for 6 yds to the TOL 40Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 21
OWN 40
+10
15.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacob Petersen for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 11
50
+4
16.7%
Emilio Duran punt for 37 yds , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for 4 yds to the WMU 17Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 11
50
+4
16.7%
Emilio Duran punt for 37 yds , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for 4 yds to the WMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22DOWNS
15 plays · 67 yds · 5:1318% → 18%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
17.9%
Devin Miles run for 8 yds to the WMU 25Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+5
17.3%
Broc Lowry run for 5 yds to the WMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
16.9%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Aveion ChenaultSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
16.4%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 7 yds to the WMU 37Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+15
16.8%
(05:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Lowry,Broc pass incomplete short middle to Chenault,Aveion thrown to WMU44 PENALTY TOL Personal Foul (Awls,Braden) 15 yards from WMU37 to TOL48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
19.7%
Broc Lowry run for 7 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+8
20.4%
Broc Lowry run for 8 yds to the TOL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
23.8%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 7 yds to the TOL 26Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+2
24.9%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the TOL 24Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+5
20.5%
Broc Lowry run for 5 yds to the TOL 19 Broc Lowry fumbled, recovered by WMU Broc Lowry for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
21.8%
Broc Lowry sacked by Martez Poynter for a loss of 4 yards to the TOL 23Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 14
OPP 23
+7
19.8%
Broc Lowry run for 7 yds to the TOL 16Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
21.1%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Aveion ChenaultSimilar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 7
OPP 16
0
17.9%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Baylin BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:2390% → 94%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
10.1%
Chip Trayanum run for no gain to the TOL 16Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-2
5.1%
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 14Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+3
5.3%
Tucker Gleason run for 3 yds to the TOL 17Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
5.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the TOL 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 0:4112% → 85%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
11.5%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Talique WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
11.2%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Aveion ChenaultSimilar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
10.2%
Broc Lowry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 10
OPP 48
+43
9.5%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 43 yds to the TOL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
15.7%
Broc Lowry run for 3 yds to the TOL 2Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.0%
Broc Lowry run for 2 yds for a TD (B. Lowry Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:1729% → 22%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
71.3%
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the TOL 34 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by TOL Anthony BoswellSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+2
71.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacob Petersen for 2 yds to the TOL 36Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
72.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Chip TrayanumSimilar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
77.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Terrell Crosby Jr.Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
77.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Terrell Crosby Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 26Uncategorized
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
94.7%
(00:17) Kneel down by Western Mich. at TOL37 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:52
Broc Lowry run for 2 yds for a TD (B. Lowry Run For Two-point Conversion)
+68.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00
(00:17) Kneel down by Western Mich. at TOL37 for loss of 1 yard.
+16.7
TD · Q3 0:48
Broc Lowry run for 6 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke PAT MISSED)
+11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com