Try the model
MORG

Morgan State 0 at Toledo 60

TOL
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Glass Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadMORG aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreMORG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:21 · Emilio Duran punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior+43.9Home team on offense+0.9Score differential−0.1Blowout margin−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:08: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 12 yds for a TD (C. Jones Run For Two-point Conversion) — TOL win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:07: Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:19: Kenji Christian run for 10 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:54: Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:18: Kenji Christian run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MORG made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 12:37TOL 4th & 8 at MORG 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:48MORG 4th & 13 at TOL 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:48MORG 4th & 13 at TOL 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:43TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:47MORG 4th & 1 at MORG 19, down 3
    Close callPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:21TOL 4th & 12 at MORG 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:45MORG 4th & 10 at MORG 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:41MORG 4th & 21 at MORG 14, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:49MORG 4th & 21 at MORG 14, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:22MORG 4th & 10 at MORG 25, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:23MORG 4th & 5 at MORG 30, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:25MORG 4th & 11 at MORG 37, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:26MORG 4th & 4 at MORG 31, down 53
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:47MORG 4th & 10 at TOL 36, down 53
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:01MORG 4th & 1 at MORG 45, down 60
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:48TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 23, up 60
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:07MORG 4th & 1 at MORG 39, down 60
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:23TOL 4th & 7 at MORG 20, up 60
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q2 14:08TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:07TOL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:19TOL Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:54TOL Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:18TOL Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:07TOL Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:50TOL Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:48TOL Touchdown, up 59 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1FG
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:1599% → 98%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.5%
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
98.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 15 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+46
98.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Javon Brown for 46 yds to the MORG 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
98.4%
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the MORG 10Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
98.3%
Chip Trayanum run for no gain to the MORG 10Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
98.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Javon BrownSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+28
98.3%
Dylan Cunanan 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:402% → 2%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.3%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 2 yds to the MORG 27Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
98.2%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 8 yds to the MORG 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.1%
Jason Collins Jr. run for no gain to the MORG 35Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+21
98.0%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Joshua Smith for 21 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
97.9%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 5 yds to the TOL 39Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-2
97.9%
Jason Collins Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 41Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-1
97.8%
Jason Collins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 42Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 8
OPP 42
-5
97.8%
PENALTY MORGAN False Start (Davis,Dylan) 5 yards from TOLEDO42 to TOLEDO47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 13
OPP 47
+11
97.8%
Shane Messenger punt for 39 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 11 yds to the TOL 19Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 13
OPP 47
+11
97.8%
Shane Messenger punt for 39 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 11 yds to the TOL 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:5898% → 97%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
97.7%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the TOL 12Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+16
97.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 16 yds to the TOL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
97.6%
Toledo Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TOL 22Similar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 16
OWN 22
+1
97.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 1 yd to the TOL 23Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 15
OWN 23
0
97.5%
Chip Trayanum run for no gain to the TOL 23Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+14
97.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 14 yds to the TOL 37Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
97.2%
Emilio Duran punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Malique Leatherbury at the MORG 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:463% → 3%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
97.3%
Randall Nauden run for 5 yds to the MORG 15Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
97.2%
Randall Nauden run for 3 yds to the MORG 18Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+1
97.1%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 1 yd to the MORG 19Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+18
97.1%
Shane Messenger punt for 40 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 18 yds to the MORG 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1897% → 97%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
97.1%
Kenji Christian run for 1 yd to the MORG 40Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-3
97.0%
Kenji Christian run for a loss of 3 yards to the MORG 43Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 12
OPP 43
0
96.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
96.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:283% → 3%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
96.7%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 2 yds to the MORG 5Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
96.5%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Matt Lowe for no gain to the MORG 5Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+1
96.6%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Jason Collins Jr. for 1 yd to the MORG 6Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 6
-3
96.6%
PENALTY MORGAN False Start 3 yards from MORGAN06 to MORGAN03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 10
OWN 3
+41
96.6%
Shane Messenger punt for 50 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 41 yds to the MORG 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:2697% → 97%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
96.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Chip Trayanum for no gain to the MORG 12Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
97.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 12 yds for a TD (C. Jones Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:383% → 3%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
97.1%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Jason Collins Jr. for 5 yds to the MORG 17Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+3
97.0%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Justin Perry for 3 yds Justin Perry fumbled, recovered by MORG Carlos HazelwoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4997% → 98%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
97.2%
Terrell Crosby Jr. run for 6 yds to the MORG 14Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+4
97.2%
Chip Trayanum run for 4 yds to the MORG 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
97.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the MORG 4Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
97.1%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the MORG 1Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:232% → 2%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.7%
John Griffith pass incomplete to Joseph Kennerly Jr.Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.8%
John Griffith pass complete to Jason Collins Jr. for 2 yds to the MORG 23Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-9
97.8%
Kobe Muasau sacked by K'Von Sherman for a loss of 9 yards to the MORG 14Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+17
97.7%
Shane Messenger punt for 39 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 17 yds to the MORG 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:1698% → 98%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
97.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Eric Holley IIISimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
97.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jacob PetersenSimilar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+13
97.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Javon Brown for 13 yds to the MORG 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
97.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Javon Brown for 13 yds to the MORG 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.2%
Kenji Christian run for 10 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:222% → 2%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
97.6%
Randall Nauden run for a loss of 3 yards to the MORG 22Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
97.6%
Kobe Muasau pass incomplete to David OkoiSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-8
97.6%
Kobe Muasau sacked by Jeremiah Peters for a loss of 8 yards to the MORG 14Similar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+24
97.7%
Shane Messenger punt for 42 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 24 yds to the MORG 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:4899% → 99%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
98.5%
Chip Trayanum run for 17 yds to the MORG 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
98.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 11 yds to the MORG 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
98.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 13 yds to the MORG 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.4%
(05:04) No Huddle Trayanum,Chip rush left for 0 yards to the MORGAN01 (Hunter,Erick) PENALTY MORGAN Offside (Fields,Dashawn). NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.4%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:121% → 1%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.4%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Jason Collins Jr. for 2 yds to the MORG 23Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
99.4%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 2 yds to the MORG 25Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Kobe Muasau pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Shane Messenger punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+33
99.5%
Kenji Christian run for 33 yds to the MORG 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+21
99.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacob Petersen for 21 yds to the MORG 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.5%
(02:22) No Huddle Gleason,Tucker pass incomplete short right to Vandeross III,Junior thrown to MORGAN00 PENALTY MORGAN Pass Interference (Carter,Jadon) 4 yards from MORGAN06 to MORGAN02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.6%
Kenji Christian run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Randall Nauden run for 3 yds to the MORG 28Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
99.7%
Kobe Muasau sacked by Doran Ray Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MORG 23Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+7
99.7%
Randall Nauden run for 7 yds to the MORG 30Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
99.7%
Shane Messenger punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOL 33 , Bryson Hammer returns for 1 yd to the TOL 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
99.7%
John Alan Richter run for 9 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+8
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Javon Brown for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
50
-1
99.7%
John Alan Richter sacked by Lance Byndon for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 49Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+14
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Javon Brown for 14 yds to the MORG 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass incomplete to Javon BrownSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+8
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Terrell Crosby Jr. for 8 yds to the MORG 29Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+17
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Eric Holley III for 17 yds to the MORG 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 5 yds to the MORG 7Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.7%
K. Muasau takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.7%
John Griffith run for a loss of 2 yards to the MORG 23Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
99.8%
Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (Nicholas Thompson) to the MORG 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.7%
Randall Nauden run for 2 yds to the MORG 40Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-7
99.8%
Randall Nauden run for a loss of 7 yards to the MORG 33 Randall Nauden fumbled, recovered by MORG Randall NaudenSimilar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+4
99.8%
John Griffith pass complete to Dorian Harris for 4 yds to the MORG 37Similar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Shane Messenger punt for 37 yds , Julian Allen returns for no gain to the TOL 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:26100% → 100%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.8%
Willie Shaw III run for 5 yds to the TOL 31Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+11
99.8%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Cooper Rusk for 11 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
99.8%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Julian Allen for 12 yds to the MORG 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
99.8%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Terrell Crosby Jr. for 9 yds to the MORG 37Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
99.8%
John Alan Richter pass incomplete to Cooper RuskSimilar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+20
99.8%
Willie Shaw III run for 20 yds to the MORG 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.8%
John Alan Richter pass incomplete to Bryson HammerSimilar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+16
99.8%
Willie Shaw III run for 16 yds to the MORG 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
Willie Shaw III run for no gain to the MORG 1Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
99.9%
Willie Shaw III run for a loss of 1 yard to the MORG 2Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
John Alan Richter pass complete to CC Ezirim for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
John Griffith pass incomplete to Maxim CopelandSimilar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Randall Nauden run for 6 yds to the MORG 31Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Dorian Harris run for no gain to the MORG 31Similar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Shane Messenger punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Julian Allen at the TOL 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne run for 7 yds to the TOL 40Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne pass complete to Julian Allen for 3 yds to the TOL 37Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-1
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 36 Kalieb Osborne fumbled, recovered by MORG Donovan MoyerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:180% → 0%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.9%
John Griffith pass incomplete to David OkoiSimilar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
99.9%
John Griffith pass incomplete to Keith Boddie Jr.Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
99.9%
John Griffith pass incomplete to Keith Boddie Jr.Similar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Shane Messenger punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:48100% → 100%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.9%
Mike Drennen II run for 15 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
99.9%
Toledo Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TOL 35Similar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.9%
Mike Drennen II run for 8 yds to the TOL 43Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+17
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne run for 17 yds to the MORG 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne pass complete to Bryson Hammer for 7 yds to the MORG 33Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+4
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne run for 4 yds to the MORG 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
99.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 8 yds to the MORG 21Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+13
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne pass complete to Bryson Hammer for 13 yds to the MORG 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
99.9%
Willie Shaw III run for a loss of 1 yard to the MORG 9Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 2 yds to the MORG 7Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne run for 7 yds for a TD (Anthony Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:400% → 0%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Dae'Jeaun Dennis run for 3 yds to the MORG 28Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
100.0%
Dae'Jeaun Dennis run for 8 yds to the MORG 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
100.0%
Dae'Jeaun Dennis run for 3 yds to the MORG 39Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
100.0%
Dae'Jeaun Dennis run for 4 yds to the MORG 43Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
100.0%
Raymond Moore III run for 2 yds to the MORG 45Similar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Shane Messenger punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne run for 5 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
Mike Drennen II run for 1 yd to the TOL 28Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Kalieb Osborne pass incomplete to Tashi BracefulSimilar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 4
OWN 28
-5
99.9%
PENALTY TOLEDO Delay Of Game 5 yards from TOLEDO28 to TOLEDO23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Malique Leatherbury at the MORG 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:300% → 0%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Dorian Harris run for no gain to the MORG 30Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
100.0%
Dorian Harris run for 4 yds to the MORG 34Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+5
100.0%
PENALTY TOLEDO Offside (Peters,Jeremiah) 5 yards from MORGAN34 to MORGAN39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Dorian Harris run for no gain to the MORG 39Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Shane Messenger punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28DOWNS
15 plays · 57 yds · 5:30100% → 100%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
100.0%
Dane Nauman run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 21Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+13
100.0%
Kalieb Osborne pass complete to Daryl Barnett Jr. for 13 yds to the TOL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
100.0%
Dane Nauman run for 12 yds to the TOL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
100.0%
Dane Nauman run for 8 yds to the MORG 46Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+11
100.0%
Dane Nauman run for 11 yds to the MORG 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
100.0%
Lucas Laroche run for 3 yds to the MORG 32Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+2
100.0%
Dane Nauman run for 2 yds to the MORG 30Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
100.0%
Kalieb Osborne pass incomplete to Tashi BracefulSimilar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+7
100.0%
(02:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Osborne,Kalieb pass incomplete short middle to Allen,Julian thrown to MORGAN20, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MORGAN Pass Interference 7 yards from MORGAN30 to MORGAN23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
100.0%
Lucas Laroche run for 1 yd to the MORG 22Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
100.0%
Lucas Laroche run for no gain to the MORG 22Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+2
100.0%
Lucas Laroche run for 2 yds to the MORG 20Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 7
OPP 20
0
100.0%
Lucas Laroche run for no gain to the MORG 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
100.0%
Dorian Harris run for 5 yds to the MORG 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:07
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 4:54
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 14:08
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 12 yds for a TD (C. Jones Run For Two-point Conversion)
+0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com