2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadBRY aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreBRY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:45 · Keegan Andrews punt for 64 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q3 4:04: — MASS win probability +3.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:38: Brennan Myer pass complete to Elijah Elliott for 43 yds for a TD (Bryce Soli KICK) — BRY win probability +12.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 0:42: Brennan Myer pass complete to Zyheem Collick for 72 yds for a TD (Bryce Soli KICK) — BRY win probability +18.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: BRY has the ball).
- FG · Q4 4:11: Derek Morris 53 yd FG GOOD — MASS win probability +25.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:00: Bryce Soli 25 yd FG GOOD — BRY win probability +66.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BRY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BRY made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 14:08BRY 4th & 4 at BRY 19, tiedClose callPunted · 15.4% before the snapGo for it15.4%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 14:08BRY 4th & 4 at BRY 19, tiedClose callPunted · 15.4% before the snapGo for it15.4%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:16BRY 4th & 4 at MASS 49, tiedClose callPunted · 16.9% before the snapGo for it17.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:02MASS 4th & 12 at BRY 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it81.5%−0.124% to convertField goal81.5%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call81.6%average punt
- Q1 5:02MASS 4th & 12 at BRY 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it81.5%−0.124% to convertField goal81.5%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call81.6%average punt
- Q1 2:36BRY 4th & 10 at BRY 25, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it16.6%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.1%average punt
- Q1 2:36BRY 4th & 10 at BRY 25, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it16.6%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.1%average punt
- Q2 9:18BRY 4th & 13 at MASS 20, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.1% before the snapGo for it12.4%−0.719% to convertField goalTheir call13.1%75% to makePunt10.8%−2.3average punt
- Q3 10:50MASS 4th & 5 at BRY 20, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snapGo for it85.1%−0.240% to convertField goalTheir call85.4%75% to makePunt80.4%−4.9average punt
- Q2 1:36BRY 4th & 3 at MASS 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.3%53% to convertField goal23.8%−0.551% to makePunt22.5%−1.8average punt
- Q3 3:42BRY 4th & 10 at BRY 10, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snapGo for it22.4%−1.527% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.8%average punt
- Q4 9:24BRY 4th & 12 at BRY 35, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snapGo for it40.6%−6.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.0%average punt
- Q3 4:08MASS 4th & 26 at MASS 38, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snapGo for it66.4%−4.87% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.2%average punt
- Q3 4:08MASS 4th & 26 at MASS 38, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snapGo for it66.4%−4.87% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.2%average punt
- Q4 1:45MASS 4th & 13 at MASS 22, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snapGo for it68.0%−10.919% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.9%average punt
- Q3 3:42BRY 4th & 10 at BRY 10, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snapGo for it24.9%−1.627% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.5%average punt
- Q4 0:00BRY 4th & 8 at MASS 8, down 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snapGo for it30.2%−35.926% to convertField goalTheir call66.0%90% to makePunt9.2%−56.8average punt
- Q3 1:34MASS 4th & 7 at BRY 7, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snapGo for it60.4%−1.228% to convertField goalTheir call61.6%91% to makePunt47.2%−14.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BRY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 4:04MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call83.4%97% to makeGo for two83.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:38BRY Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.2%97% to makeGo for two23.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:42BRY Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.3%97% to makeGo for two36.1%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBRYDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3116% → 16%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
84.5%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Levi Wilkins for 6 yds to the BRY 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 2:2285% → 84%
Q1 12:17
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
83.8%
Keegan Andrews punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jase Hannigan at the BRY 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 3PUNT12 plays · 33 yds · 4:4516% → 17%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
83.7%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Koby Keenan for 11 yds to the BRY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+13
83.2%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Zyheem Collick for 13 yds to the BRY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
82.7%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Aldrich Doe for 5 yds to the MASS 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4PUNT17 plays · 38 yds · 7:0084% → 81%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
83.7%
Brennan Myer pass to Koby Keenan for 11 yds to the BRY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+13
83.2%
Brennan Myer pass to Zyheem Collick for 13 yds to the BRY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
82.6%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 2 yds to the MASS 36Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+9
82.5%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 9 yds to the MASS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+14
82.1%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Donnie Gray for 14 yds to the BRY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 11
OPP 40
-1
81.8%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Rocko Griffin for a loss of 1 yard to the BRY 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5INT TD14 plays · -5 yds · 5:0383% → 83%
Q1 8:04
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+9
82.5%
Brandon Rose pass to Jacquon Gibson for 9 yds to the MASS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+14
82.1%
Brandon Rose pass to Donnie Gray for 14 yds to the BRY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 11
OPP 40
-1
81.8%
to Rocko Griffin for a loss of 1 yards to the BRY 41, Brandon Rose passSimilar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
81.1%
Keegan Andrews punt for 27 yds to the MASS , punt out-of-bounds at the MASS Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 6
OWN 18
-9
81.1%
(04:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Kedzior,Dylan rush left for 1 yard gain to the Bryant19 (Craig,Derrieon) PENALTY Bryant Holding (Fagley,Jon) 9 yards from Bryant18 to Bryant09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 15
OWN 9
-23
83.3%
Brennan Myer pass intercepted Tyler Martin return for 23 yds for a TD (Derek Morris PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 0 yds · 2:1817% → 17%
BRYDrive 7FG16 plays · 50 yds · 9:3117% → 16%
Q1 2:36
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.9%
Kristian Karoglan punt for 41 yds to the MASS 39, Samuel Baddoo returns for 5 yds to the MASS 39Similar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
85.3%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Koby Keenan for 14 yds to the BRY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
85.0%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Elijah Elliott for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 4
50
+14
84.7%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Aldrich Doe for 14 yds to the MASS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+15
84.6%
(10:24) Shotgun Myer,Brennan pass incomplete deep left to Collick,Zyheem thrown to UMass05 PENALTY UMass Pass Interference (Bailey,Brennen) 15 yards from UMass32 to UMass17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
84.1%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Elijah Elliott for 3 yds to the MASS 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8TD9 plays · 61 yds · 4:2384% → 84%
Q1 0:46
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-5
83.5%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Jordan,Grant rush left for 17 yards gain to the Bryant21 (Hunt,Sean) PENALTY UMass Illegal Formation 5 yards from Bryant38 to Bryant43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+15
83.4%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Jake McConnachie for 15 yds to the BRY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9INT12 plays · 0 yds · 8:1884% → 83%
Q1 0:53
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+5
83.5%
Grant Jordan run, Massachusetts Penalty, illegalformation (5 Yards)Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+15
83.4%
to Jake McConnachie for 15 yds to the BRY 13 for a 1ST down, Grant Jordan passSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
83.7%
Brandon Hood run for 13 yds to the BRY 0, for a TD (Derek Morris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10MISSED FG13 plays · 55 yds · 13:1582% → 86%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.1%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Tyree Kelly for 6 yds to the MASS 31Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+19
85.4%
Grant Jordan run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down Bryant Penalty, Personal Foul (Dedric Walker) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
50
+10
86.1%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Tyree Kelly for 10 yds to the BRY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
86.2%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Tyree Kelly for 15 yds to the BRY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+4
86.8%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Reece Adkins for 4 yds to the BRY 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11TD14 plays · 80 yds · 13:3883% → 71%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+50
83.9%
Grant Jordan pass to Jacquon Gibson for 50 yds to the BRY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
84.1%
Grant Jordan run for 5 yds to the BRY 0, for a TD (Derek Morris PAT MISSED) (Derek Morris KICK)Similar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
85.2%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Tristen Riley for 11 yds to the BRY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
84.8%
(10:16) Shotgun Myer,Brennan pass incomplete short right to Riley,Tristen thrown to UMass50, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UMass Pass Interference (McGill,Jeremiah) 13 yards from Bryant31 to Bryant44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 4
50
+7
84.2%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Elijah Elliott for 7 yds to the MASS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
71.3%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Elijah Elliott for 43 yds for a TD (Bryce Soli KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 12PUNT17 plays · 0 yds · 14:3623% → 24%
Q2 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+15
76.5%
Brennan Myer pass to Tristen Riley for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
72.0%
Brennan Myer pass to Tristen Riley for 13 yds to the MASS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
71.7%
to , Brennan Myer pass to Zyheem Collick, Bryant Penalty, ineligibledownfieldonpass (Wyatt Whalen)Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
71.7%
Brennan Myer pass to Zyheem Collick for 9 yds to the MASS 0, for a TD for a 1ST down, Massachusetts Penalty, targeting (Kendall Bournes) (Bryce Soli KICK)Similar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+1
76.1%
Kristian Karoglan punt for 42 yds , Samuel Baddoo returns for 1 yd to the MASS 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 13TD5 plays · 76 yds · 15:0423% → 42%
BRYDrive 14PUNT17 plays · 33 yds · 20:2429% → 45%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
50
+10
73.0%
Grant Jordan pass to Tyree Kelly for 10 yds to the BRY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
73.1%
Grant Jordan pass to Tyree Kelly for 15 yds to the BRY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+11
55.6%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Koby Keenan for 11 yds to the BRY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
50.9%
Brennan Myer sacked by Marques White for a loss of 5 yards to the BRY 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15FG21 plays · 53 yds · 21:2567% → 76%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
66.6%
to , Brennan Myer pass to Tristen Riley for 11 yds to the BRY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
65.9%
Brennan Myer pass incomplete, Massachusetts Penalty, passinterference (Jeremiah McGill)Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 4
50
+7
63.2%
Brennan Myer pass to Elijah Elliott for 7 yds to the MASS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
62.2%
Brennan Myer pass to Elijah Elliott for 43 yds to the MASS 0, for a TD for a 1ST down (Bryce Soli KICK)Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+5
54.3%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 5 yds to the MASS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
53.7%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 12 yds to the MASS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+41
52.3%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Donnie Gray for 41 yds to the BRY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
60.3%
(05:40) No Huddle-Shotgun Jordan,Grant rush right for 7 yards gain to the Bryant07 (Helm,Dorian; Johnson,Jalen) PENALTY UMass Holding (Roy Jr.,Benjamin) 10 yards from Bryant14 to Bryant24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 20
OPP 24
-11
59.2%
Grant Jordan sacked by Beau Shugarts for a loss of 11 yards to the BRY 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16PUNT10 plays · 13 yds · 4:2274% → 70%
Q3 7:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
73.4%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Reece Adkins for 16 yds to the MASS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
75.5%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Max Dowling for 6 yds to the MASS 48Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+6
76.0%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 6 yds to the BRY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-10
76.0%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Hairston,AJ rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Bryant37 (Perkins,Brandon; Rice,Lonnie) PENALTY UMass Holding (Glynn II,Mao) 10 yards from Bryant46 to UMass44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 26
OWN 38
0
70.0%
Keegan Andrews punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Tristen Riley at the BRY 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17PUNT15 plays · -3 yds · 21:4574% → 81%
BRYDrive 18FG22 plays · 78 yds · 19:0723% → 93%
Q3 3:42
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+1
79.1%
Kristian Karoglan punt for 42 yds to the MASS 49, Samuel Baddoo returns for 1 yd to the MASS 49Similar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+20
80.4%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Aldrich Doe for 20 yds to the BRY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
78.4%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Elijah Elliott for 7 yds to the BRY 41Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-5
74.7%
PENALTY Bryant False Start (Fagley,Jon) 5 yards from Bryant41 to Bryant36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+9
79.8%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Tristen Riley for 9 yds to the BRY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+25
78.9%
Brennan Myer pass complete to Tristen Riley for 25 yds to the MASS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
72.3%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Myer,Brennan pass incomplete deep right to Collick,Zyheem thrown to UMass05 PENALTY UMass Holding (McGill,Jeremiah) 10 yards from UMass30 to UMass20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19FG7 plays · 44 yds · 1:5565% → 61%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
65.3%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Max Dowling for 19 yds to the BRY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
67.6%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 5 yds to the BRY 27Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+20
67.4%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Brandon Hood for 12 yds to the BRY 15 for a 1ST down Bryant Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (Lonnie Rice) to the BRY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 20INT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2661% → 67%
Q4 3:16
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-7
37.1%
Brennan Myer sacked by Tim Grant-Randall for a loss of 7 yards to the BRY 30Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+15
40.9%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun Myer,Brennan pass incomplete short right to Collick,Zyheem thrown to Bryant48 PENALTY UMass Pass Interference (Bailey,Brennen) 15 yards from Bryant30 to Bryant45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Bryce Soli 25 yd FG GOOD
-66.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-33.3
FG · Q4 4:11
Derek Morris 53 yd FG GOOD
+25.1