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SFPA

Saint Francis 6 at Buffalo 45

BUF
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadSFPA aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreSFPA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:40 · Aidan Cirulli punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BUF 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 17Pregame prior+46.9Home team on offense+0.8Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 12:20: Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 17 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — SFPA win probability +0.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 7:01: Jack Howes 27 yd FG GOOD — SFPA win probability +0.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:50: Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — BUF win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:07: Ta'Quan Roberson run for 40 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — BUF win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:06: Jordan Theodore run for 1 yd for a TD (Mac Plummer PAT MISSED) — SFPA win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: SFPA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SFPA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 14:05SFPA 4th & 6 at SFPA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:40SFPA 4th & 13 at SFPA 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:56SFPA 4th & 16 at SFPA 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:01BUF 4th & 6 at SFPA 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:10BUF 4th & 1 at SFPA 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:57BUF 4th & 2 at SFPA 15, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:13SFPA 4th & 3 at SFPA 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:10SFPA 4th & 17 at SFPA 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:44SFPA 4th & 4 at BUF 43, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00SFPA 4th & 18 at BUF 21, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:48BUF 4th & 7 at SFPA 34, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:16SFPA 4th & 3 at SFPA 40, down 24
    Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:07BUF 4th & 2 at SFPA 40, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:11SFPA 4th & 9 at SFPA 28, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:10SFPA 4th & 3 at SFPA 42, down 39
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:50SFPA 4th & 3 at SFPA 32, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SFPA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:20BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:50BUF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:07BUF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:01BUF Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:06SFPA Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:52BUF Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SFPADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:552% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Jeff Hoenstine pass incomplete to Peyton NelsonSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Jeff Hoenstine pass incomplete to Scott RaymondSimilar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.2%
Jeff Hoenstine run for 4 yds to the SFPA 29Similar
Q1 14:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.2%
Aidan Cirulli punt blocked by Connor Henderson blocked by Connor Henderson Cirulli,Aidan punt 0 yards to the SFU29 blocked by Henderson,Connor recovered by SFU Hodge,Brenden at SFU27, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:4598% → 98%
Q1 14:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.2%
puntSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
98.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the SFPA 22Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+3
98.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 3 yds to the SFPA 19Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+2
98.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the SFPA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
98.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 17 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:402% → 2%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
98.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass to Victor Snow for 17 yds to the SFPA 0, for a TD for a 1ST down (Jack Howes PAT MISSED) (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.0%
Jahmil Perryman run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFPA 20Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
98.0%
Raph Ekechi run for 2 yds to the SFPA 22Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
98.0%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass incomplete to Denzel LambertSimilar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
97.9%
Aidan Cirulli punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BUF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 1:052% → 2%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.6%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Jahmil Perryman for 4 yds to the SFPA 29Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
97.6%
PENALTY SFU False Start (Evehe,Kevin) 5 yards from SFU29 to SFU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
97.6%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass incomplete to Raph EkechiSimilar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
97.6%
PENALTY SFU Delay Of Game 5 yards from SFU24 to SFU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
97.6%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Andrew Vines for no gain to the SFPA 19Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
97.6%
Aidan Cirulli punt for 37 yds , Victor Snow returns for no gain to the BUF 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:3998% → 98%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
97.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 4 yds to the BUF 39Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
97.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BUF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
97.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Messiah Burch for 2 yds to the BUF 44Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+4
97.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+39
97.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 39 yds to the SFPA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
97.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
97.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the SFPA 11Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
97.9%
Buffalo Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
97.6%
Jack Howes 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6TD
12 plays · 56 yds · 5:0698% → 98%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
97.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 46Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+11
97.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 11 yds to the SFPA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
97.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the SFPA 39Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
97.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 2 yds to the SFPA 37Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+5
97.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the SFPA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
97.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Chance MorrowSimilar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
97.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 12 yds to the SFPA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
97.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 9 yds to the SFPA 11Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+1
97.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the SFPA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
97.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 2 yds to the SFPA 8Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
97.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the SFPA 1Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:1398% → 98%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
98.0%
Jr. Terrance Shelton run for 3 yds to the SFPA 41Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
98.0%
Jr. Terrance Shelton run for 2 yds to the SFPA 39Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+4
98.0%
Jr. Terrance Shelton run for 4 yds to the SFPA 35Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
98.0%
Jr. Terrance Shelton run for 2 yds to the SFPA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
98.0%
Lamar Sperling run for 6 yds to the SFPA 27Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+4
98.0%
Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the SFPA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
98.0%
Lamar Sperling run for 2 yds to the SFPA 21Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
98.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Chance MorrowSimilar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+6
98.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the SFPA 15Similar
Q2 9:57
4TH & 2
OPP 15
-1
97.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFPA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:443% → 2%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
97.5%
Jeff Hoenstine pass incomplete to Denzel LambertSimilar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+8
97.5%
Raph Ekechi run for 8 yds to the SFPA 24Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 2
OWN 24
-1
98.0%
Raph Ekechi run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFPA 23Similar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 3
OWN 23
+18
98.0%
Aidan Cirulli punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BUF 49 , Victor Snow returns for 18 yds to the BUF 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:402% → 2%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.3%
PENALTY SFU False Start (Van Tassell,Connor) 5 yards from SFU25 to SFU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
98.3%
Jordan Theodore run for 3 yds to the SFPA 23Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
98.4%
Jeff Hoenstine pass complete to Erik Sanchez for 4 yds to the SFPA 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-9
98.4%
Jeff Hoenstine sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the SFPA 18Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+5
98.4%
Aidan Cirulli punt for 46 yds for a 1ST down , Victor Snow returns for 5 yds to the SFPA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 10FUMBLE
21 plays · 54 yds · 5:311% → 1%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.8%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Raph Ekechi for 8 yds to the SFPA 33Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
98.5%
Nick Whitfield Jr. run for 6 yds to the SFPA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
98.7%
Raph Ekechi run for 3 yds to the SFPA 42Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
98.7%
Raph Ekechi run for 5 yds to the SFPA 47Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+4
98.5%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Jahmil Perryman for 4 yds to the BUF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 17
OWN 44
+4
98.9%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Peyton Nelson for 4 yds to the SFPA 48Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+5
98.6%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Emmanuel Dyson for 5 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.6%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass incomplete to Peyton NelsonSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
98.7%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass incomplete to Peyton NelsonSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+25
98.8%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Andrew Vines for 25 yds to the BUF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+9
98.9%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Peyton Nelson for 9 yds to the BUF 43Similar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
98.6%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Scott Raymond for 1 yd to the BUF 12Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+4
98.6%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Emmanuel Dyson for 4 yds to the BUF 8Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-13
98.3%
Saint Francis Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Nick Whitfield Jr.) to the BUF 21Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 18
OPP 21
-7
98.8%
Aidan Cirulli sacked by Charles McCartherens for a loss of 7 yards to the BUF 42 Aidan Cirulli fumbled, recovered by BUF Kobe Stewart , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11INT
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:1299% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
98.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUF 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+20
98.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 20 yds to the BUF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
98.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 11 yds to the SFPA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
98.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 8 yds to the SFPA 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+2
98.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the SFPA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
98.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the SFPA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
98.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
98.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
98.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:321% → 1%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
98.6%
Jahmil Perryman run for 8 yds to the SFPA 30Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+3
98.5%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Jahmil Perryman for 3 yds to the SFPA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
98.5%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Emmanuel Dyson for 6 yds to the SFPA 39Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+1
98.5%
Jahmil Perryman run for 1 yd to the SFPA 40Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
98.5%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass incomplete to Jahmil PerrymanSimilar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+39
98.7%
Aidan Cirulli punt for 47 yds , Victor Snow returns for 39 yds to the BUF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:4299% → 99%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
99.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Snow,Victor rush left for 3 yards gain to the SFU48 (Douglas,Colin; McMahon,Kent) PENALTY BUF Holding (King,Evan) 10 yards from BUF49 to BUF39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+22
99.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 22 yds to the SFPA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
99.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the SFPA 32Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+14
99.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 14 yds to the SFPA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
99.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 8 yds to the SFPA 10Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+10
99.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 4:0999% → 100%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
98.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BUF 16Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+5
98.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
98.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 24Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
98.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 6 yds to the BUF 30Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
98.7%
Jr. Terrance Shelton run for 2 yds to the BUF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
98.7%
Jr. Terrance Shelton run for 20 yds to the SFPA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
98.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the SFPA 41Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+1
98.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the SFPA 40Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+40
99.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 40 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
99.9%
Messiah Burch run for 14 yds to the SFPA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.9%
Messiah Burch run for 5 yds to the SFPA 24Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+13
99.9%
Messiah Burch run for 13 yds to the SFPA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
99.9%
Messiah Burch run for 7 yds to the SFPA 4Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 4 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Marcus Velez for no gain to the BUF 22Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.9%
Lamar Sperling run for 5 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-6
99.9%
Gunnar Gray pass intercepted Craig Joyner return for 6 yds to the BUF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 17TD
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:450% → 0%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
99.9%
Raph Ekechi run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 31Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+4
99.9%
Raph Ekechi run for 4 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+10
99.9%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Bobby Cameron for 10 yds to the BUF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass incomplete to Bobby CameronSimilar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass incomplete to Emmanuel DysonSimilar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+16
99.9%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Peyton Nelson for 16 yds to the BUF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Jordan Theodore run for 1 yd for a TD (Mac Plummer PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 5:14100% → 100%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
Lamar Sperling run for 7 yds to the BUF 47Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the SFPA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the SFPA 45Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
99.9%
Lamar Sperling run for 5 yds to the SFPA 40Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
Jr. James Mcneil run for 3 yds to the SFPA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
99.9%
Jr. James Mcneil run for 7 yds to the SFPA 30Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+1
99.9%
Jr. James Mcneil run for 1 yd to the SFPA 29Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+3
99.9%
Jr. James Mcneil run for 3 yds to the SFPA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.9%
James McNeil Jr. run for 26 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Jordan Theodore run for 2 yds to the SFPA 29Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-1
99.9%
Jordan Theodore run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFPA 28Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass incomplete to Andrew VinesSimilar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+32
99.9%
Aidan Cirulli punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFPA 43 , Victor Snow returns for 32 yds to the SFPA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20END OF GAME
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:50100% → 100%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the BUF 23Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
99.9%
Lamar Sperling run for 5 yds to the BUF 28Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
99.9%
Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the BUF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
100.0%
Jr. James Mcneil run for 3 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+8
99.9%
Jr. James Mcneil run for 8 yds to the BUF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
100.0%
Jr. James Mcneil run for 10 yds to the SFPA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
100.0%
Jr. James Mcneil run for 3 yds to the SFPA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Raph Ekechi run for 2 yds to the SFPA 37Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Peyton Nelson for 5 yds to the SFPA 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Andrew Vines for no gain to the SFPA 42Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+15
99.9%
Aidan Cirulli punt for 38 yds , Victor Snow returns for 15 yds to the BUF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:020% → 0%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass complete to Emmanuel Dyson for 7 yds to the SFPA 32Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass incomplete to Erik SanchezSimilar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Nick Whitfield Jr. pass incomplete to Mike DarcySimilar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Aidan Cirulli punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:07
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 40 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q1 0:50
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+0.4
FG · Q1 7:01
Jack Howes 27 yd FG GOOD
-0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com