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Holy Cross 17 at Northern Illinois 19

NIU
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadHC aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreHC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.3NIU 84.6%Andrew Glass 20 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 4:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:00 · Andrew Glass 20 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout marginTimeout advantage
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+31.5Home team on offense+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.2Blowout margin−0.3Timeout advantage+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 3:22: Luis Palenzuela 33 yd FG GOOD — HC win probability +6.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: HC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:34: Cal Swanson pass complete to Blake Youngblood for 16 yds for a TD (Luis Palenzuela KICK) — HC win probability +39.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: HC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:21: Owen Saraceno kickoff for 61 yds , Dev'ion Reynolds return for 96 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass PAT MISSED) — NIU win probability +16.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 4:15: Chavon Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK) — NIU win probability +21.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:03: Andrew Glass kickoff for 62 yds , Alijah Cason return for 97 yds for a TD (Luis Palenzuela KICK) — HC win probability +22.8 pts (now 26%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11HC made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:44NIU 4th & 12 at NIU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:24HC 4th & 10 at HC 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:00NIU 4th & 3 at HC 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.7%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:48NIU 4th & 1 at HC 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.8%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:11NIU 4th & 8 at HC 42, up 3
    Close callPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:10HC 4th & 11 at NIU 32, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.9%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    23.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:11NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 45, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:22HC 4th & 12 at NIU 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−1.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−4.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:10NIU 4th & 4 at HC 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.9
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:25HC 4th & 4 at NIU 23, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.6%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−6.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:50HC 4th & 1 at HC 26, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:04NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:57HC 4th & 7 at HC 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:27NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.4%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:40NIU 4th & 11 at NIU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−2.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:41HC 4th & 11 at NIU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−2.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−8.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:01NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−3.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:20HC 4th & 7 at HC 23, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−2.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:17NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 24, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−5.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:56HC 4th & 4 at HC 45, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.6%−6.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2HC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q4 10:34HC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 10:21NIU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:15NIU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:03HC Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:0487% → 86%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
86.9%
Josh Holst run for 4 yds to the NIU 31Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+3
86.7%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the NIU 34Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+5
86.5%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 5 yds to the NIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
86.4%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Jake ApplegetSimilar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
86.4%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Hron,Landon) 5 yards from NIU39 to NIU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+3
86.4%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 3 yds to the NIU 37Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 12
OWN 37
0
86.1%
Josh Holst run for no gain to the NIU 37Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
85.9%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 4:0714% → 15%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
85.9%
Jayden Clerveaux run for 2 yds to the HC 11Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+7
85.7%
Cal Swanson run for 7 yds to the HC 18Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+2
85.6%
Jayden Clerveaux run for 2 yds to the HC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
85.3%
Cal Swanson run for 7 yds to the HC 27Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+8
85.0%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Joseph Williams for 8 yds to the HC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.8%
Sam Slade run for no gain to the HC 35Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
84.6%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Max Mosey for no gain to the HC 35Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
84.6%
Cal Swanson pass incomplete to Blake YoungbloodSimilar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
84.7%
Ethan Moss punt for 31 yds, fair catch by DeAree Rogers at the NIU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:1385% → 85%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
84.5%
Chavon Wright run for no gain to the NIU 34Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
84.3%
Josh Holst pass complete to Jaylen Poe for 2 yds to the NIU 36Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+9
84.1%
Josh Holst pass complete to Jaylen Poe for 9 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+45
84.4%
Chavon Wright run for 45 yds to the HC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
84.5%
Chavon Wright run for 5 yds to the HC 5Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
84.5%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to George DimopoulosSimilar
Q1 4:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
84.2%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the HC 3Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
84.6%
Andrew Glass 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 4INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:0916% → 17%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
83.9%
Cal Swanson pass incomplete to Mason McSweeneySimilar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
84.0%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Charly Mullaly for 13 yds to the HC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
83.3%
Cal Swanson run for 5 yds to the HC 48Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
83.2%
Cal Swanson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 4:2284% → 83%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
84.1%
Josh Holst run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 31Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+13
83.7%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 13 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
84.4%
Josh Holst run for 2 yds to the NIU 46Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
84.3%
Josh Holst pass complete to Jaylen Poe for 6 yds to the HC 48Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+1
83.9%
Jaylen Poe run for 1 yd to the HC 47Similar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+3
83.5%
Chavon Wright run for 3 yds to the HC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
84.2%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the HC 46Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
83.7%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Jake ApplegetSimilar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+4
83.1%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the HC 42Similar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
82.8%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 6DOWNS
13 plays · 66 yds · 5:5117% → 18%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
82.7%
Jayden Clerveaux run for 1 yd to the HC 3Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+33
82.7%
Cal Swanson run for 33 yds to the HC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
81.8%
Joseph Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the HC 34Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+8
83.1%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Charly Mullaly for 8 yds to the HC 42Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+15
82.1%
(10:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Swanson,Cal pass incomplete deep left to Mullaly,Charly thrown to NIU25 PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Finley,Jacob) 15 yards from HC42 to NIU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
81.6%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Charly Mullaly for 2 yds to the NIU 41Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+5
81.1%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Alijah Cason for 5 yds to the NIU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
80.6%
Jayden Clerveaux run for 1 yd to the NIU 30Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+6
80.2%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Alijah Cason for 6 yds to the NIU 24Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 3
OPP 24
-8
81.2%
Cal Swanson sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the NIU 32Similar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 11
OPP 32
0
82.4%
Cal Swanson pass incomplete to Ty CurranSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · -19 yds · 1:4883% → 82%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
82.6%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 11 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
83.6%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 43Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
83.1%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to La'Don BryantSimilar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+2
82.3%
Josh Holst pass complete to Telly Johnson Jr. for 2 yds to the NIU 45Similar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+32
81.6%
Ross Pedro run for 32 yds to the NIU 13 Ross Pedro fumbled, recovered by NIU Danny VuckovicSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 8FG
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:4220% → 25%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
79.7%
Jayden Clerveaux run for 7 yds to the NIU 6Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 3
OPP 6
-1
79.5%
Jayden Clerveaux run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 7Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 4
OPP 7
-8
81.0%
Cal Swanson sacked by Roy Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the NIU 15Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+33
74.7%
Luis Palenzuela 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 2:5978% → 82%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
78.3%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the NIU 17Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+6
77.8%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the NIU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
77.5%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Gary Givens IiiSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
77.2%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 23Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+25
76.1%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 25 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+6
79.4%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the HC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
79.0%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Holst,Josh pass incomplete deep left to Givens III,Gary thrown to HC15 PENALTY HC Illegal Substitution 5 yards from NIU48 to HC47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
79.3%
Josh Holst run for 4 yds to the HC 37Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+10
79.3%
Josh Holst pass complete to Jake Appleget for 10 yds to the HC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
80.0%
Josh Holst run for 1 yd to the HC 26Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+2
79.9%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the HC 24Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+3
78.9%
Josh Holst run for 3 yds to the HC 21Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
81.7%
Andrew Glass 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
83.9%
C. Swanson takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 11MISSED FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1525% → 23%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
74.7%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Max Mosey for 7 yds to the NIU 22Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-1
74.4%
Sam Slade run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 23Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
75.1%
Cal Swanson pass incomplete to Ty CurranSimilar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
76.8%
Luis Palenzuela 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12INT
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:1479% → 80%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
78.6%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the NIU 32Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+9
79.2%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 9 yds to the NIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
79.5%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the NIU 44Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+7
79.4%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the HC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
79.7%
Josh Holst pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0723% → 23%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
76.7%
Cal Swanson run for 3 yds to the HC 20Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
76.6%
Joseph Williams run for 3 yds to the HC 23Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+3
77.1%
Cal Swanson run for 3 yds to the HC 26Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
77.4%
Ethan Moss punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:4179% → 77%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
78.7%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 43Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-1
77.8%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 42Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+6
75.9%
Josh Holst pass complete to Jaylen Poe for 6 yds to the NIU 48Similar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
77.2%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5626% → 26%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
73.9%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Max Mosey for 3 yds to the HC 33Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+1
73.4%
Jayden Clerveaux run for 1 yd to the HC 34Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+7
74.1%
Cal Swanson run for 7 yds to the HC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
71.6%
Cal Swanson pass incomplete to Joseph WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
72.3%
Cal Swanson pass incomplete to Charly MullalySimilar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
73.4%
Holy Cross Penalty, (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
73.7%
Ethan Moss punt for 31 yds, fair catch by DeAree Rogers at the NIU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:1376% → 73%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.8%
Jackson Proctor pass incomplete to Gary Givens IiiSimilar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.3%
Chavon Wright run for 2 yds to the NIU 27Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
74.0%
Jackson Proctor pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 7 yds to the NIU 34Similar
Q3 3:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+11
74.0%
Jackson Proctor run for 11 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
78.0%
Jackson Proctor pass complete to Jaylen Poe for 1 yd to the NIU 46Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+3
77.5%
Chavon Wright run for 3 yds to the NIU 49Similar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
76.6%
Jackson Proctor pass incomplete to Gary Givens IiiSimilar
Q3 1:46
4TH & 6
OWN 49
-5
74.5%
PENALTY NIU Delay Of Game 5 yards from NIU49 to NIU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
73.0%
Danny Vuckovic punt blocked by Adam Due blocked by Adam Due (01:45) Vuckovic,Danny punt 0 yards to the NIU44 blocked by Due,Adam recovered by NIU Urwiler,Quinton at NIU37, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 17MISSED FG
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:5331% → 27%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
68.7%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Sam Slade for 7 yds to the NIU 30Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 3
OPP 30
-5
66.3%
Nyeoti Punni run for a loss of 5 yards to the NIU 35Similar
Q3 0:08
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+9
68.4%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Nathan Schillinger for 9 yds to the NIU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
65.7%
Cal Swanson pass incomplete to Alijah CasonSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
66.4%
Cal Swanson run for 1 yd to the NIU 25Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 9
OPP 25
-2
69.1%
Cal Swanson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 27Similar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+44
73.1%
Luis Palenzuela 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3276% → 72%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
75.5%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 27Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
74.6%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 27Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
73.1%
Jackson Proctor pass incomplete to Telly Johnson Jr.Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
71.7%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Max Mosey at the HC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 19TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:0128% → 70%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
71.7%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Max Mosey for 15 yds to the HC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
69.5%
Cal Swanson pass incomplete to Jayden ClerveauxSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+46
69.7%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Max Mosey for 46 yds to the NIU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
30.4%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Blake Youngblood for 16 yds for a TD (Luis Palenzuela KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4832% → 30%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
67.6%
Alijah Cason run for 4 yds to the HC 24Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-1
66.3%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Alijah Cason for a loss of 1 yard to the HC 23Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
68.4%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Max Mosey for no gain to the HC 23Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
69.6%
Ethan Moss punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:0071% → 97%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
71.4%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the NIU 44Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
72.6%
Chavon Wright run for 2 yds to the NIU 46Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+4
70.2%
Chavon Wright run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
50
+22
76.4%
DeAree Rogers run for 22 yds to the HC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
76.9%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the HC 23Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
76.6%
Jackson Proctor pass incomplete to Jake ApplegetSimilar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+21
75.5%
Jaylen Poe run for 21 yds to the HC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.2%
Chavon Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
Q4 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
97.1%
PENALTY NIU Delay Of Game 5 yards from HC03 to HC08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 1:3374% → 76%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
73.7%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the NIU 27Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+2
72.7%
Jackson Proctor run for 2 yds to the NIU 29Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 4
OWN 29
-5
71.4%
PENALTY NIU False Start 5 yards from NIU29 to NIU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-5
70.0%
PENALTY NIU False Start 5 yards from NIU24 to NIU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 14
OWN 19
+5
77.9%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the NIU 24 Telly Johnson Jr. fumbled, recovered by NIU Telly Johnson Jr.Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
76.3%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Max Mosey at the HC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1736% → 32%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
64.1%
Cal Swanson pass incomplete to Charly MullalySimilar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
64.9%
Cal Swanson pass incomplete to Sam SladeSimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+6
67.0%
Cal Swanson pass complete to Charly Mullaly for 6 yds to the HC 45Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
68.5%
Cal Swanson pass incomplete to Max MoseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24Uncategorized
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:2289% → 93%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
88.5%
Chavon Wright run for 4 yds to the HC 41Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+7
89.9%
Chavon Wright run for 7 yds to the HC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
91.2%
J. Holst takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-2
92.1%
Josh Holst run for a loss of 2 yards to the HC 37Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 13
OPP 37
-1
92.6%
J. Holst takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:34
Cal Swanson pass complete to Blake Youngblood for 16 yds for a TD (Luis Palenzuela KICK)
-39.3
TD · Q4 4:03
Andrew Glass kickoff for 62 yds , Alijah Cason return for 97 yds for a TD (Luis Palenzuela KICK)
-22.8
TD · Q4 4:15
Chavon Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)
+21.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com