2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadMRMK aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreMRMK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:40 · Carlton Thai 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:24: CJ Montes pass complete to Cade Wolford for 30 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK) — KENT win probability +7.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:01: Carlton Thai 26 yd FG GOOD — MRMK win probability +4.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- FG · Q3 2:26: Carlton Thai 37 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +9.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MRMK has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:38: Seth Sweitzer 36 Yd pass from Ayden Pereira (Aveon Smith Pass to Cade Callahan for Two-Point Conversion) — MRMK win probability +33.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: MRMK has the ball).
- FG · Q4 5:40: Carlton Thai 45 yd FG GOOD — MRMK win probability +21.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MRMK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MRMK made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 12:48MRMK 4th & 8 at MRMK 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snapGo for it34.2%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.3%average punt
- Q1 11:07KENT 4th & 1 at MRMK 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.6%70% to convertField goal65.4%−0.236% to makePunt65.4%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:43KENT 4th & 9 at MRMK 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.9% before the snapGo for it64.5%−0.226% to convertField goalTheir call64.7%88% to makePunt62.9%−1.9average punt
- Q2 14:16MRMK 4th & 2 at midfield, tiedClose callPunted · 37.3% before the snapGo for it37.5%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.9%−0.6average punt
- Q2 11:29KENT 4th & 6 at MRMK 44, tiedClose callPunted · 64.3% before the snapGo for it64.4%40% to convertField goal63.8%−0.627% to makePuntTheir call64.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 7:31KENT 4th & 14 at KENT 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snapGo for it60.9%−1.518% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.4%average punt
- Q2 6:10MRMK 4th & 9 at MRMK 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snapGo for it37.0%−1.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.1%average punt
- Q2 0:57KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snapGo for it68.5%−2.715% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.2%average punt
- Q2 2:17MRMK 4th & 2 at MRMK 33, down 7Close callPunted · 27.7% before the snapGo for it27.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.3%−0.6average punt
- Q3 10:41MRMK 4th & 7 at KENT 19, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.9% before the snapGo for it32.1%−0.735% to convertField goalTheir call32.8%77% to makePunt26.6%−6.2average punt
- Q3 14:00KENT 4th & 15 at KENT 10, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snapGo for it63.9%−1.615% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.5%average punt
- Q3 0:19KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 46, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snapGo for it85.0%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.1%average punt
- Q3 2:26MRMK 4th & 18 at KENT 20, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snapGo for it12.7%−4.312% to convertField goalTheir call17.0%75% to makePunt6.3%−10.7average punt
- Q4 1:42MRMK 4th & 15 at KENT 41, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.7%17% to convertField goal5.4%−0.332% to makePunt4.7%−1.0average punt
- Q4 13:52MRMK 4th & 11 at MRMK 11, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snapGo for it12.6%−3.724% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.2%average punt
- Q4 10:44KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 49, up 8Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 87.3% before the snapGo for it87.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.3%−1.5average punt
- Q4 5:40MRMK 4th & 4 at KENT 28, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snapGo for it48.7%48% to convertField goalTheir call46.0%−2.760% to makePunt27.8%−20.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MRMK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 3:24KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.9%97% to makeGo for two70.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:38MRMK Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick36.0%−0.397% to makeGo for twoTheir call36.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMRMKDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0934% → 34%
KENTDrive 2DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4166% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 3PUNT3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
65.5%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to Jalen McDonald for 7 yds to the MRMK 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4MISSED FG15 plays · 79 yds · 8:0166% → 65%
Q1 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+16
65.7%
CJ Montes pass complete to Sebastian Brown for 16 yds to the KENT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
66.5%
CJ Montes pass complete to Sebastian Brown for 19 yds to the MRMK 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
66.4%
CJ Montes pass complete to Terik Mulder for no gain to the MRMK 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 30 yds · 2:2736% → 37%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 36 yds · 2:4765% → 65%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
64.6%
Dru DeShields run for 6 yds to the KENT 26 for a 1ST down Merrimack Penalty, (15 Yards) to the KENT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
65.6%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Hunter Hopperton for 11 yds to the MRMK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 7PUNT3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
KENTDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 2:2064% → 62%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
64.6%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Wayne Harris for 10 yds to the KENT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
65.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Kimbrough,Jahzae rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU46 (Frazier,DJ; Ricks,Bryce) PENALTY KSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from KSU44 to KSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 15
OWN 39
-1
64.7%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Wayne Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the KENT 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2139% → 38%
KENTDrive 10TD7 plays · 76 yds · 2:4664% → 74%
Q2 6:10
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+17
63.4%
CJ Montes pass complete to Terik Mulder for 17 yds to the KENT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
65.7%
PENALTY MC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Rosemond Jr.,Garry) 15 yards from KSU48 to MC37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+30
74.3%
CJ Montes pass complete to Cade Wolford for 30 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
KENTDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2074% → 71%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
74.2%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Diallo,Junior) 5 yards from KSU38 to KSU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 9
OWN 39
-2
73.0%
CJ Montes sacked by Jabari Echols for a loss of 2 yards to the KENT 37Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 16
OWN 32
+9
71.4%
Jake Stoeckel punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MRMK 11 , Garry Rosemond Jr. returns for 9 yds to the MRMK 41 Merrimack Penalty, (10 Yards) to the MRMK 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 13FG14 plays · 80 yds · 2:1627% → 34%
Q2 2:17
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+21
72.6%
Mike Ryan punt for 50 yds , Wayne Harris returns for 21 yds to the KENT 38Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+10
72.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Pereira,Ayden pass incomplete short right to Lehman,Cooper thrown to MC37 broken up by Tucker,Tevin PENALTY KSU Holding (Cordoba,Joel) 10 yards from MC27 to MC37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+32
70.2%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to Cooper Lehman for 17 yds to the KENT 41 for a 1ST down Kent State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jaire Rawlison) to the KENT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+12
68.1%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to Jalen McDonald for 12 yds to the KENT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
69.0%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to DeMarcus McElroy for 5 yds to the KENT 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q3 14:53
4TH & 10
OWN 15
-5
65.5%
PENALTY KSU Delay Of Game (Stoeckel,Jake) 5 yards from KSU15 to KSU10. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 15MISSED FG7 plays · 28 yds · 3:1936% → 33%
Q3 14:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+7
62.4%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to DeMarcus McElroy for 7 yds to the KENT 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 13:4166% → 85%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
84.3%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Sebastian Brown for 15 yds to the KENT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+4
85.4%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Jay Jay Etheridge for 4 yds to the KENT 46Similar
Q3 0:19
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
84.6%
Jake Stoeckel punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Garry Rosemond Jr. at the MRMK 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17TD2 plays · 80 yds · 0:4578% → 78%
MRMKDrive 18FG15 plays · 55 yds · 7:3023% → 17%
Q3 9:56
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-10
75.2%
Brendon Wyatt run for no gain to the MRMK 33 Merrimack Penalty, (-10 Yards) to the MRMK 23Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+14
78.2%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to Seth Sweitzer for 14 yds to the MRMK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+22
76.0%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to Cooper Lehman for 22 yds to the KENT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+12
72.9%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to Austin Palmer for 12 yds to the KENT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 8
OPP 10
-10
73.9%
Ayden Pereira sacked by Jamond Mathis for a loss of 10 yards to the KENT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 19DOWNS15 plays · 34 yds · 3:467% → 8%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
92.8%
PENALTY MC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Warrick,Bryce) 15 yards from KSU35 to KSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
89.4%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to Brendon Wyatt for 13 yds to the MRMK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
86.9%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to Jalen McDonald for 3 yds to the MRMK 44Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+13
86.4%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to Cade Callahan for 13 yds to the KENT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0816% → 14%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 16
-5
85.4%
Ryan,Mike punt 47 yards to the KSU37 Harris,Wayne return 9 yards to the KSU46 (Wilson,Jacob; Latham,Matthias) PENALTY MC Illegal Formation 5 yards from MC16 to MC11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:52
4TH & 11
OWN 11
+22
85.8%
Mike Ryan punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KENT 31 , Wayne Harris returns for 22 yds to the KENT 33 Kent State Penalty, Illegal Block (Angelo Stockstill) to the KENT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21END OF GAME6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4296% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 3:0886% → 88%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
86.3%
CJ Montes pass complete to Jay Jay Etheridge for 9 yds to the KENT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 23TD4 plays · 75 yds · 2:0615% → 52%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
81.3%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to Brendon Wyatt for 3 yds to the KENT 45Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+9
81.4%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to Seth Sweitzer for 9 yds to the KENT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
48.5%
Seth Sweitzer 36 Yd pass from Ayden Pereira (Aveon Smith Pass to Cade Callahan for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24FUMBLE4 plays · -6 yds · 0:3959% → 56%
Q4 7:59
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
56.1%
Dru DeShields sacked by Bryce Warrick for a loss of 4 yards to the KENT 19 Merrimack Penalty, (15 Yards) to the KENT 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+69.8
TD · Q4 8:38
Seth Sweitzer 36 Yd pass from Ayden Pereira (Aveon Smith Pass to Cade Callahan for Two-Point Conversion)
-33
FG · Q4 5:40
Carlton Thai 45 yd FG GOOD
-21