2025 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2025 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreM-OH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:23 · Atticus Bertrams punt for 37 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:01: Dequan Finn pass complete to Cole Weaver for 20 yds to the M-OH 45 for a 1ST down — WIS win probability +2.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- SACK · Q2 0:10: Dequan Finn sacked by Darryl Peterson for a loss of 8 yards to the M-OH 28 — WIS win probability +2.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Kellan McLaughlin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — M-OH win probability +3.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 4:08: Danny O'Neil pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 3 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +8.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:45: Danny O'Neil run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +4.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 13:31M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 34, tiedClose callPunted · 12.4% before the snapGo for it12.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:06WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snapGo for it86.8%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.8%average punt
- Q1 8:55M-OH 4th & 3 at WIS 46, tiedClose callPunted · 14.0% before the snapGo for it14.1%52% to convertField goal13.9%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call14.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:39WIS 4th & 7 at M-OH 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.9% before the snapGo for it83.9%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call84.0%66% to makePunt83.0%−1.0average punt
- Q2 12:26M-OH 4th & 17 at M-OH 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it15.8%−0.714% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%average punt
- Q2 8:31WIS 4th & 2 at M-OH 36, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.0%57% to convertField goal81.3%−0.842% to makePunt81.1%−0.9average punt
- Q2 5:23WIS 4th & 14 at M-OH 37, up 3Close callPunted · 80.2% before the snapGo for it79.5%−0.519% to convertField goal79.9%40% to makePuntTheir call79.7%−0.2average punt
- Q2 2:35M-OH 4th & 13 at M-OH 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it17.6%−1.020% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.5%average punt
- Q2 1:08WIS 4th & 14 at WIS 21, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snapGo for it75.7%−2.017% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.8%average punt
- Q2 0:00M-OH 4th & 27 at M-OH 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snapGo for it15.1%−2.76% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.9%average punt
- Q3 9:59WIS 4th & 3 at M-OH 10, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call78.7%49% to convertField goal78.1%−0.688% to makePunt71.9%−6.8average punt
- Q3 6:54M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snapGo for it22.3%−1.534% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.7%average punt
- Q3 6:54M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snapGo for it22.3%−1.534% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.7%average punt
- Q3 2:01M-OH 4th & 11 at M-OH 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snapGo for it10.7%−1.925% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.6%average punt
- Q4 14:06WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 49, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snapGo for it87.8%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.2%average punt
- Q4 12:22M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 31, down 10Close callPunted · 11.0% before the snapGo for it11.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.4%−0.2average punt
- Q4 8:29WIS 4th & 18 at M-OH 45, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snapGo for it89.4%−1.613% to convertField goal89.8%−1.225% to makePuntTheir call91.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q3 4:08WIS Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.0%97% to makeGo for two88.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:45WIS Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2410% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1490% → 89%
M-OHDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0211% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4FG16 plays · 69 yds · 7:0788% → 86%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
88.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 11 yds to the WIS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
87.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dilin Jones for 5 yds to the WIS 22Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+17
87.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Chris Brooks Jr. for 17 yds to the WIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 3
OPP 32
-5
87.2%
(03:50) Shotgun Edwards Jr.,Billy pass incomplete short left to Kekahuna,Trech thrown to MOH29 PENALTY WIS Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from MOH32 to MOH37. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT10 plays · 15 yds · 4:0914% → 15%
Q1 0:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
86.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Cole Weaver for 10 yds to the M-OH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 7
50
-10
84.5%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan rush left for 6 yards gain to the WIS44, out of bounds at WIS44 PENALTY MOH Holding (Smith Jr.,Greg) 10 yards from MOH50 to MOH40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 17
OWN 40
0
85.5%
Pierse Stainton punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the WIS 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT16 plays · 43 yds · 6:5685% → 83%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
84.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 11 yds to the WIS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+13
84.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 13 yds to the WIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+5
84.6%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 5 yds to the M-OH 36Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-12
85.1%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Adam Trick for a loss of 12 yards to the M-OH 38Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 15
OPP 38
-5
83.4%
(06:40) PENALTY WIS Delay Of Game 5 yards from MOH38 to MOH43. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 2:4317% → 17%
WISDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1682% → 80%
M-OHDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 1:0117% → 16%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
82.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Cole Weaver for 20 yds to the M-OH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-15
80.3%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete short left to Colzie,Deion thrown to WIS46 PENALTY MOH Pass Interference (Colzie,Deion) 15 yards from WIS49 to MOH36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 19
OWN 36
-8
82.9%
Dequan Finn sacked by Darryl Peterson for a loss of 8 yards to the M-OH 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10INT11 plays · 65 yds · 4:5581% → 80%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Chris Brooks Jr. for 9 yds to the WIS 34Similar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+31
82.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 31 yds to the M-OH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
82.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 10 yds to the M-OH 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT8 plays · -1 yds · 2:5922% → 21%
Q3 9:12
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+11
78.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Deion Colzie for 11 yds to the M-OH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12TD8 plays · 54 yds · 2:3480% → 89%
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
80.3%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Eugene Hilton Jr. for 11 yds to the M-OH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+22
80.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Grant Stec for 22 yds to the M-OH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.2%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 3 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0211% → 10%
Q3 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Cole Weaver for 5 yds to the M-OH 30Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-6
88.4%
Dequan Finn sacked by Christian Alliegro for a loss of 6 yards to the M-OH 24Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
89.7%
Pierse Stainton punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the WIS 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 2:5089% → 88%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
90.0%
(00:39) Kekahuna,Trech rush right for 1 yard gain to the WIS49 (Martin,Kaleb) PENALTY WIS Holding (Brooks Jr.,Chris) 10 yards from WIS48 to WIS38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 20
OWN 38
+5
89.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 5 yds to the WIS 43Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 9
OWN 49
+16
88.4%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 44 yds , Lynel Billups-Williams returns for 16 yds to the M-OH 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3510% → 10%
WISDrive 16PUNT10 plays · 35 yds · 3:4589% → 92%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
89.6%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Dilin Jones for 2 yds to the WIS 33Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+15
89.4%
(10:49) Shotgun O'Neil,Danny pass incomplete deep left to Hilton Jr.,Eugene thrown to MOH43 PENALTY MOH Pass Interference (Toney,Coleman, Jr.) 15 yards from WIS36 to MOH49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+9
90.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Grant Stec for 9 yds to the M-OH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-8
91.0%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Adam Trick for a loss of 8 yards to the M-OH 45Similar
Q4 8:29
4TH & 18
OPP 45
0
92.2%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Lynel Billups-Williams at the M-OH 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17INT2 plays · -5 yds · 0:178% → 8%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
91.9%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass complete short right to Colzie,Deion caught at MOH20, for 17 yards to the MOH27, out of bounds at MOH27 PENALTY MOH Holding (Rohrs,Gavin) 5 yards from MOH10 to MOH05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 15
OWN 5
-17
92.4%
Dequan Finn pass intercepted Preston Zachman return for 17 yds to the M-OH 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18TD3 plays · 2 yds · 1:1594% → 99%
M-OHDrive 19INT9 plays · 42 yds · 1:333% → 2%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Lynel Billups-Williams for 15 yds to the M-OH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
97.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Lynel Billups-Williams for 7 yds to the M-OH 47Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+15
97.3%
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete deep right to Colzie,Deion thrown to WIS29 PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (Hill,D'Yoni) 15 yards from MOH47 to WIS38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20END OF GAME8 plays · 48 yds · 5:0299% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:08
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 3 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q4 6:45
Danny O'Neil run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+4.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Kellan McLaughlin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-3.6