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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:56 · Brayden Johnson punt for 49 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Defense timeoutsOffense timeoutsPregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingScore differential
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:00: Michael Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the WYO 32 — WYO win probability +6.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 4:50: Ben Finley pass incomplete to Cameron Montiero — AKR win probability +8.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 2:05: Wyoming Penalty, false start (Nathan Geiger) to the WYO 13 — WYO win probability +10.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 6:08: Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 44 yds to the AKR 41 for a 1ST down — WYO win probability +6.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q4 4:26: Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 35 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK) (Erik Sandvik KICK) — WYO win probability +7.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 12 of 12WYO made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
- Q1 13:05WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt63.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:57WYO 4th & 11 at AKR 37, tiedClose callPunted · 62.1% before the snapGo for it62.1%−<0.127% to convertField goal62.1%40% to makePuntTheir call62.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:52AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snapGo for it38.3%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.5%average punt
- Q1 3:48WYO 4th & 2 at AKR 42, tiedClose callPunted · 60.5% before the snapGo for it60.7%57% to convertField goal60.0%−0.730% to makePuntTheir call60.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:56AKR 4th & 14 at AKR 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snapGo for it40.4%−0.718% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.1%average punt
- Q2 12:24WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snapGo for it56.4%−1.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.6%average punt
- Q2 11:56AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snapGo for it42.0%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.4%average punt
- Q2 9:53WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snapGo for it56.3%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.7%average punt
- Q2 7:43AKR 4th & 3 at WYO 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.7%52% to convertField goal44.2%−1.534% to makePunt44.4%−1.3average punt
- Q2 5:20WYO 4th & 8 at AKR 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snapGo for it56.8%−0.626% to convertField goalTheir call57.4%90% to makePunt52.1%−5.3average punt
- Q2 1:15AKR 4th & 1 at WYO 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.9%71% to convertField goal41.3%−1.660% to makePunt36.3%−6.6average punt
- Q2 0:30AKR 4th & 16 at WYO 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snapGo for it38.2%−1.816% to convertField goalTheir call40.0%51% to makePunt37.5%−2.5average punt
- Q2 0:11WYO 4th & 1 at AKR 31, up 3Close callWent for it · 62.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.0%−0.371% to convertField goal62.4%54% to makePunt60.3%−2.1average punt
- Q3 13:59AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snapGo for it38.4%−1.033% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.5%average punt
- Q3 9:12WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 25, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snapGo for it58.0%−2.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.2%average punt
- Q3 6:21AKR 4th & 12 at AKR 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snapGo for it38.1%−3.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.3%average punt
- Q4 10:22WYO 4th & 2 at AKR 8, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.7%54% to convertField goal64.0%−3.790% to makePunt46.6%−21.1average punt
- Q4 8:54AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 10, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snapGo for it31.2%−1.227% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.4%average punt
- Q4 7:53WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 34, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snapGo for it62.0%−4.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.0%average punt
- Q4 6:16AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 38, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snapGo for it30.3%−1.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.7%average punt
- Q4 3:13AKR 4th & 17 at AKR 18, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it6.8%−1.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%average punt
- Q4 1:57WYO 4th & 1 at AKR 45, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 94.2% before the snapGo for it94.5%70% to convertField goal92.3%−2.125% to makePuntTheir call92.9%−1.6average punt
- Q4 0:40AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 43, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.7%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q4 4:26WYO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.9%97% to makeGo for two89.4%−0.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT12 plays · 38 yds · 5:0172% → 75%
Q1 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
27.5%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Bricen Brantley for 4 yds to the WYO 34Similar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
26.7%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jackson Holman for 8 yds to the WYO 48Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+17
25.9%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 17 yds to the AKR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
25.4%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for no gain to the AKR 36Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
24.9%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Bricen Brantley for a loss of 1 yard to the AKR 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5525% → 24%
Q1 9:19
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+18
24.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Sean Patrick for 18 yds to the AKR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3PUNT9 plays · 41 yds · 3:5976% → 78%
AKRDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 3:4722% → 20%
Q1 3:12
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
22.2%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Myles Walker, broken up by Brayden JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+10
21.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Sean Patrick for 10 yds to the AKR 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-8
21.6%
Ben Finley sacked by Chisom Ifeanyi and Lucas Samsula for a loss of 8 yards to the AKR 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:2079% → 79%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1921% → 20%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
21.3%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Sean Patrick, broken up by Aneesh VyasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5280% → 80%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
19.6%
Kaden Anderson pass incomplete to Jackson Holman, broken up by Malcom DeWalt IVSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
18.8%
Kaden Anderson pass incomplete to Evan Svoboda, broken up by Kam CheatomSimilar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+33
19.8%
Jr. Bart Edmiston punt for 33 yds Akron Penalty, roughing kicker (Melvin Spriggs) to the AKR 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8DOWNS5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5620% → 21%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
20.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Sean Patrick for 15 yds to the WYO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9FG8 plays · 54 yds · 2:2082% → 83%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
18.0%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Michael Fitzgerald for no gain to the WYO 38 Wyoming Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the WYO 33Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+49
18.7%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 49 yds to the AKR 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
17.1%
Sam Scott run for no gain to the AKR 18 for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, face mask (9 yards) (Bruno Dall) to the AKR 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
16.9%
Kaden Anderson pass incomplete to Chris Durr Jr., broken up by DiMarco JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10MISSED FG15 plays · 43 yds · 4:4316% → 10%
Q2 4:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
16.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Conner Cravaack for 1 yd to the AKR 33Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+12
17.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Myles Walker for 12 yds to the WYO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
12.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Sean Patrick for no gain to the WYO 26 Akron Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the WYO 31Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 15
OPP 31
-9
11.4%
Ben Finley sacked by Ben Florentine for a loss of 9 yards to the WYO 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11DOWNS5 plays · 37 yds · 0:1891% → 91%
AKRDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5216% → 14%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT10 plays · 23 yds · 4:3285% → 84%
AKRDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:4516% → 14%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
16.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 17 yds to the AKR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 2
OPP 47
-10
17.2%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the AKR 47 Akron Penalty, Offensive holding (Kenneth Mcmanus Iv) to the AKR 43Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
14.6%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Marcel Williams, broken up by Jones ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16INT4 plays · 22 yds · 1:1889% → 89%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
11.4%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 5 yds to the WYO 25Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+22
10.7%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 22 yds to the WYO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
11.1%
Kaden Anderson pass incomplete to Jaylen Sargent, broken up by Bruno DallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17INT6 plays · 34 yds · 2:3719% → 22%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18DOWNS17 plays · 72 yds · 6:4388% → 87%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+20
11.4%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jackson Holman for 20 yds to the WYO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+7
9.8%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jackson Holman for 7 yds to the AKR 48Similar
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
9.4%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 18 yds to the AKR 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+5
13.0%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 5 yds to the AKR 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2415% → 14%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
14.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Marquese Williams for 2 yds to the AKR 12Similar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+10
14.4%
Joseph Castle punt for 46 yds , Charlie Coenen returns for 10 yds to the WYO 20 Wyoming Penalty, illegal block (Nico Hamilton) to the WYO 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4987% → 86%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
12.6%
Kaden Anderson pass incomplete to Bricen Brantley, broken up by Malcom DeWalt IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 1:3016% → 22%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
16.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Marcel Williams for 16 yds to the AKR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
21.0%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Myles Walker Akron Penalty, illegal forward pass (Ben Finley) to the AKR 39Similar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 11
OWN 38
+1
21.7%
Joseph Castle punt for 48 yds , Charlie Coenen returns for 1 yd to the WYO 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22TD4 plays · 85 yds · 1:4285% → 97%
AKRDrive 23PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 1:074% → 4%
WYODrive 24PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0698% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25Uncategorized9 plays · 31 yds · 1:371% → 1%
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:05
Wyoming Penalty, false start (Nathan Geiger) to the WYO 13
-10.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 4:50
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Cameron Montiero
+8.1
TD · Q4 4:26
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 35 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK) (Erik Sandvik KICK)
-7.7