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BOIS

Boise State 7 at South Florida 34

USF
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD+3.4USF 98.8%Cartevious Norton run for 8 yds for aTD (Nico Gramatica KICK)AWAY 7 - HOME 31 · Q4 13:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:26 · Cartevious Norton run for 8 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Home team on offense+31.7Pregame prior−4.1Score differential+20.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.4Garbage-time factor+11.3Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:10: Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 6 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — BOIS win probability +4.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:34: Byrum Brown run for 23 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK) — USF win probability +8.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:18: Locklan Hewlett pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 45 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK) — USF win probability +13.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:44: Byrum Brown run for 15 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK) — USF win probability +15.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:26: Cartevious Norton run for 8 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK) — USF win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 8:28USF 4th & 22 at USF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:31BOIS 4th & 9 at BOIS 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:45USF 4th & 1 at USF 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:04BOIS 4th & 1 at USF 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−0.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:39USF 4th & 15 at BOIS 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:44BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:51USF 4th & 10 at USF 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:13BOIS 4th & 15 at USF 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:03USF 4th & 6 at USF 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:53BOIS 4th & 18 at BOIS 2, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−6.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:18USF 4th & 6 at BOIS 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    54.9%−2.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:30BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.9%−2.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:47BOIS 4th & 2 at USF 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−1.7
    70% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−11.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:35BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 43, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:34BOIS 4th & 5 at USF 12, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:00USF 4th & 5 at USF 30, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:34BOIS 4th & 3 at USF 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:29USF 4th & 3 at BOIS 14, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BOIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 1:10BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:34USF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:18USF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:44USF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:26USF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1FUMBLE
11 plays · 41 yds · 5:0468% → 66%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
32.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the BOIS 24Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+12
32.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 12 yds to the BOIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
32.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Bates for 2 yds to the BOIS 38Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
33.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Sire Gaines for 7 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
33.1%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
33.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Wagner for 5 yds to the USF 48Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+9
33.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 9 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
33.6%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt LauterSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
33.7%
Dylan Riley run for no gain to the USF 39Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
34.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for no gain Malik Sherrod fumbled, forced by Mac Harris, recovered by USF Jhalyn ShulerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:1035% → 35%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
34.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 38Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
34.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Mudia ReubenSimilar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 11
OWN 38
-11
34.7%
Byrum Brown sacked by Braxton Fely and Jayden Virgin-Morgan for a loss of 11 yards to the USF 27Similar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 22
OWN 27
0
34.5%
Chase Leon punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOIS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4865% → 64%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
34.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Quinton Brown for 1 yd to the BOIS 28Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
35.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Malik SherrodSimilar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
35.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Cameron BatesSimilar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+8
35.7%
Oscar Doyle punt for 51 yds , Joshua Porter returns for 8 yds to the USF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3836% → 36%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
35.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 4 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+1
35.7%
Sam Franklin run for 1 yd to the USF 34Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+4
35.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 4 yds to the USF 38Similar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
36.1%
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the USF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:3065% → 69%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
35.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris MarshallSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+13
35.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 13 yds to the USF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
35.1%
Maddux Madsen run for no gain to the USF 25Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
35.3%
Sire Gaines run for 9 yds to the USF 16Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
35.7%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the USF 16Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
36.5%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the USF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
35.2%
Madsen, Maddux pass incomplete to Marshall, Chris, PENALTY SOUFLA pass interference 10 yards to the SOUFLA4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOIS.Similar
Q1 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
35.2%
Sire Gaines run for 3 yds to the USF 1Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.4%
Maddux Madsen run for no gain to the USF 1 Maddux Madsen fumbled, recovered by BOIS Maddux MadsenSimilar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 0
OPP 1
-5
35.7%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USF 6Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
31.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 6 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 3:2333% → 36%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
32.8%
Cartevious Norton run for 1 yd to the USF 26Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-8
32.8%
Byrum Brown sacked by Braxton Fely and Jeremiah Earby for a loss of 8 yards to the USF 18Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+37
32.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 37 yds to the BOIS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
34.5%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
34.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 4 yds to the BOIS 41Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+12
34.3%
Byrum Brown run for 12 yds to the BOIS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
35.2%
Brown, Byrum pass complete to Nimrod, Chas for 13 yards to the BOIS16, PENALTY SOUFLA holding 10 yards to the BOIS39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 20
OPP 39
0
33.9%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian NeptuneSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 20
OPP 39
-10
33.8%
Brown, Byrum rush for 39 yards to the BOIS0, PENALTY SOUFLA holding 10 yards to the BOIS49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 30
OPP 49
+15
33.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Alvon Isaac for 15 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 15
OPP 34
0
33.5%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to JeyQuan SmithSimilar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 15
OPP 34
+52
35.6%
Nico Gramatica 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4264% → 62%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
36.2%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 14Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 12
OWN 14
0
36.6%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris MarshallSimilar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+15
37.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 15 yds to the BOIS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
36.4%
Sire Gaines run for no gain to the BOIS 29Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
36.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris MarshallSimilar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+4
37.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Sire Gaines for 4 yds to the BOIS 33Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
37.7%
Oscar Doyle punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Joshua Porter at the USF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:0337% → 48%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
36.8%
Arkese Parks run for no gain to the USF 20Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
36.8%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+8
36.1%
Byrum Brown sacked by Braxton Fely and Max Stege for a loss of 7 yards to the USF 15 for a 1ST down Boise State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the USF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
37.4%
Byrum Brown run for 10 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+37
38.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 37 yds to the BOIS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
39.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Joshua Porter for 5 yds to the BOIS 18Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-5
40.0%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BOIS 23Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
40.1%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Jeremiah KogerSimilar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+23
48.4%
Byrum Brown run for 23 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9FUMBLE
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:2455% → 55%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.5%
South Florida Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the BOIS 30Similar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+14
44.5%
Sire Gaines run for 14 yds to the BOIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
44.0%
Sire Gaines run for 9 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+5
43.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 5 yds to the USF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
44.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 20 yds to the USF 22 for a 1ST down South Florida Penalty, Roughing Passer (11 Yards) to the USF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
43.5%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the USF 11Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-5
43.7%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USF 16Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+22
44.6%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the USF 36 Sire Gaines fumbled, forced by Jonas Duclona, recovered by USF Ira Singleton , return for 22 yds to the USF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0349% → 47%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
49.1%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 38Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-2
49.6%
Alvon Isaac run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 36Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
48.0%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Wyatt SullivanSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
47.2%
Chase Leon punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Malik Sherrod at the BOIS 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 1:3251% → 48%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
48.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the BOIS 25Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
49.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 7 yds to the BOIS 32Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+2
48.5%
Maddux Madsen run for 2 yds to the BOIS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
48.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 1 yd to the BOIS 35Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+24
50.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 24 yds to the USF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
47.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt LauterSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
47.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Ben FordSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-5
49.0%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USF 46Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 15
OPP 46
+5
50.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 5 yds to the USF 41Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 10
OPP 41
-5
51.1%
Boise State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USF 46Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
52.0%
Oscar Doyle punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
49.8%
Cartevious Norton run for no gain to the USF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:4949% → 51%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
49.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 7 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
52.1%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 34Similar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
51.1%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
52.1%
Byrum Brown sacked by Dion Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 35Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+2
51.3%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the USF 37Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-5
50.9%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USF 32Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+8
49.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 8 yds to the USF 40Similar
Q3 12:03
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
50.5%
Chase Leon punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Malik Sherrod at the BOIS 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:0349% → 45%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
51.0%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 8Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 12
OWN 8
-5
52.1%
Maddux Madsen sacked by Rico Watson III for a loss of 5 yards to the BOIS 3Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 17
OWN 3
-1
53.8%
Boise State Penalty, Delay of Game (-1 Yards) to the BOIS 2Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 18
OWN 2
0
54.2%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris MarshallSimilar
Q3 9:53
4TH & 18
OWN 2
0
55.4%
Oscar Doyle punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOIS 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:3257% → 70%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
57.0%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
56.5%
Sam Franklin run for 1 yd to the BOIS 48Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+3
56.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 3 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+45
69.7%
Locklan Hewlett pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 45 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16DOWNS
14 plays · 52 yds · 5:2330% → 28%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 9 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
68.6%
Dylan Riley run for 1 yd to the BOIS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
70.4%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Dylan RileySimilar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
70.8%
Maddux Madsen run for 5 yds to the BOIS 40Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
70.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 4 yds to the BOIS 44Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+8
71.9%
Maddux Madsen run for 8 yds to the USF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
70.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Sire Gaines for 6 yds to the USF 42Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+11
70.1%
Maddux Madsen run for 11 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
68.1%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 32Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+9
68.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 9 yds to the USF 23Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
70.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt WagnerSimilar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 2
OPP 23
0
72.0%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Sire GainesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 0:5475% → 92%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
74.7%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 24Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+6
74.6%
Brown, Byrum pass incomplete to Singleton, Keshaun, PENALTY BOIS pass interference 6 yards to the SOUFLA30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+55
76.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 55 yds to the BOIS 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
91.9%
Byrum Brown run for 15 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:0010% → 9%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
89.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 15 yds to the BOIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
89.1%
Sire Gaines run for 3 yds to the BOIS 43Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
89.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
90.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt LauterSimilar
Q3 0:35
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
91.0%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Cameron BatesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:0394% → 99%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
93.6%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the BOIS 40Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+24
94.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Cartevious Norton for 24 yds Cartevious Norton fumbled, forced by Jayden Virgin-Morgan, recovered by USF Cartevious Norton for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
95.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 2 yds to the BOIS 14Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+6
95.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 6 yds to the BOIS 8Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+8
98.8%
Cartevious Norton run for 8 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+15
98.8%
Boise State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20FUMBLE
11 plays · 50 yds · 2:442% → 2%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
98.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 16 yds to the BOIS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.0%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 5 yds to the BOIS 46Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+6
98.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 6 yds to the USF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+31
98.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Bates for 31 yds to the USF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
97.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
97.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Sire GainesSimilar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+5
98.2%
Maddux Madsen run for 5 yds to the USF 12Similar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 5
OPP 12
-13
98.3%
Maddux Madsen run for a loss of 13 yards to the USF 25 Maddux Madsen fumbled, recovered by USF Ira SingletonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2899% → 99%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.0%
Sam Franklin run for 5 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Joshua Porter for no gain to the USF 30Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sam FranklinSimilar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.1%
Chase Leon punt for 32 yds, downed at the BOIS 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:121% → 1%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
98.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chase Penry for 7 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+4
98.7%
Maddux Madsen run for 4 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
98.8%
Maddux Madsen run for 14 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
99.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 4 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
98.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Ben FordSimilar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+3
98.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 3
OPP 30
0
99.0%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Sire GainesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23FG
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+49
99.6%
Alvon Isaac run for 49 yds to the BOIS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
99.6%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the BOIS 18Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+5
99.6%
Alvon Isaac run for 5 yds to the BOIS 13Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 2
OPP 13
-1
99.7%
Cartevious Norton run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 14Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+33
99.9%
Nico Gramatica 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:070% → 0%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds to the BOIS 29Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
100.0%
Dylan Riley run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 28Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+19
100.0%
Max Cutforth pass complete to Quinton Brown for 19 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
100.0%
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+12
100.0%
Max Cutforth pass complete to Demetric Whitlock Jr. for 12 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
100.0%
Dylan Riley run for 5 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+7
100.0%
Dylan Riley run for 7 yds to the USF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:44
Byrum Brown run for 15 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
+15.7
TD · Q3 8:18
Locklan Hewlett pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 45 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
+13.6
TD · Q2 6:34
Byrum Brown run for 23 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com