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ARMY

Army 16 at Navy 17

NAVY
2025 · Week 16 · Dec 13, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-1.2NAVY 61.2%(03:44) #95 D.Jones field goal attemptfrom 20 yards GOOD (H: #38 C.Allan,LS: #55 O.Walter), clock 03:45AWAY 10 - HOME 7 · Q2 3:45
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:45 · (03:44) #95 D.Jones field goal attempt from 20 yards GOOD (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter), clock 03:45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Pregame prior+12.9Home team on offense−3.6Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:55: (14:57) No Huddle #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:55, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter) — ARMY win probability +4.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:03: (00:00) #95 D.Jones field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter), clock 00:00 — ARMY win probability +5.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:39: (09:39) #95 D.Jones field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter), clock 09:39 — ARMY win probability +3.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:59: (02:59) #17 N.Kirkwood field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry), clock 02:59 — NAVY win probability +7.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 6:37: (06:37) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short middle to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at Army00, for 8 yards to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:32 #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) — NAVY win probability +30.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 5ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 1:12ARMY 4th & 2 at NAVY 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−3.0
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:37NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:23ARMY 4th & 2 at NAVY 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    39.5%−0.9
    87% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−6.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:45ARMY 4th & 3 at NAVY 3, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−6.8
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:21ARMY 4th & 13 at NAVY 49, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−2.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:39ARMY 4th & 8 at NAVY 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:59NAVY 4th & 3 at ARMY 3, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.2%−2.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−14.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:24ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−3.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:06NAVY 4th & 16 at NAVY 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−3.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:37NAVY 4th & 8 at ARMY 8, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    31.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−14.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:50ARMY 4th & 12 at ARMY 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−4.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:54NAVY 4th & 1 at ARMY 41, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    62.9%−12.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−11.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:16NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:37NAVY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 7:3873% → 74%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
72.6%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Navy32 (#20 C.Larkin)Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+14
72.5%
(14:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 14 yards gain to the Navy46 (#5 J.Weaver), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
72.5%
Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush right for 0 yards to the Navy46 (#53 K.Fortner)Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
72.4%
Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush left for 2 yards gain to the Navy48 (#96 D.Stowers; #52 K.Harris-Miller)Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+11
72.2%
(12:27) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at Navy46, for 11 yards to the Army41 (#53 K.Fortner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
72.4%
(11:47) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Army37 (#20 C.Larkin)Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+3
72.3%
(11:12) No Huddle #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army34 (#53 K.Fortner; #30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+9
72.2%
(10:29) No Huddle #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Army25 (#7 J.Mayes; #14 G.Shields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
72.3%
(09:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army22 (#96 D.Stowers; #51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+9
72.2%
(09:03) No Huddle #22 E.Heidenreich rush right for 9 yards gain to the Army13 (#5 J.Weaver; #14 G.Shields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
72.0%
(08:34) #11 B.Horvath rush right for 3 yards gain to the Army10 (#30 C.Matteson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
72.0%
(07:55) #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Army05 (#30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
74.0%
(07:18) #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:16, 1ST DOWN #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:1227% → 33%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.5%
(07:16) #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army28 (#58 C.Cauley; #96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
73.4%
(06:34) Shotgun #27 S.Howard rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army31 (#90 J.Moutome)Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+26
73.6%
(05:54) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 26 yards gain to the Navy43 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
72.8%
(05:11) #33 J.Rendina rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Navy39 (#58 C.Cauley; #56 M.Parker)Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+1
72.7%
(04:27) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Navy38 (#90 J.Moutome)Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+7
73.0%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #84 B.Anderson caught at Navy31, for 7 yards to the Navy31 (#17 J.Ross), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
72.4%
(03:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 2 yards gain to the Navy29 (#58 C.Cauley; #17 J.Ross)Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+4
71.9%
(02:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Navy25 (#56 M.Parker; #96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+2
72.5%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 N.Short rush right for 2 yards gain to the Navy23 (#58 C.Cauley; #95 G.Willis)Similar
Q1 1:12
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+2
73.0%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Navy21 (#90 J.Moutome; #58 C.Cauley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
71.8%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 S.Howard rush left for 1 yard gain to the Navy20 (#14 J.Campbell) PENALTY Navy Face Mask (#14 J.Campbell) 10 yards from Navy20 to Navy10, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
71.8%
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Navy02 (#58 C.Cauley; #93 A.Lyczek)Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.9%
(14:57) No Huddle #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:55, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1170% → 69%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
69.7%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush right for 2 yards loss to the Navy23 (#51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
69.4%
(14:11) Shotgun #24 B.Chatman rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Navy32 (#20 C.Larkin; #52 K.Harris-Miller)Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
69.2%
(13:26) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Navy34 (#92 J.Latore; #40 E.Ford)Similar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
68.6%
(12:44) #15 J.Carlson punt 32 yards to the Army34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 8:4632% → 39%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
67.8%
(12:33) No Huddle #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Army38 (#95 G.Willis; #2 M.Williams)Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+8
66.9%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 S.Howard rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Army46 (#2 M.Williams; #17 J.Ross), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
66.3%
(11:17) No Huddle #15 N.Short rush left for 2 yards gain to the Army48 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
66.1%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 0 yards to the Army48 (#35 L.Pirris; #18 P.Hamilton)Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+21
66.2%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short middle to #15 N.Short caught at Navy45, for 21 yards to the Navy31 (#40 C.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
64.5%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 12 yards gain to the Navy19 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
64.0%
(08:36) No Huddle #27 S.Howard rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Navy16 (#2 M.Williams)Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-1
62.7%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Navy17 (#95 G.Willis)Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+6
63.5%
(07:13) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Navy11 (#35 L.Pirris; #2 M.Williams)Similar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+3
64.5%
(06:35) #3 C.Hellums rush right for 3 yards gain to the Navy08 (#93 A.Lyczek; #2 M.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
62.3%
(05:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Navy05 (#2 M.Williams)Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
62.0%
(05:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Navy04 (#58 C.Cauley; #40 C.Robinson)Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
62.5%
(04:33) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #15 N.Short caught at Navy08, for 1 yard to the Navy03 (#2 M.Williams; #40 C.Robinson)Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
61.2%
(03:44) #95 D.Jones field goal attempt from 20 yards GOOD (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter), clock 03:45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5FUMBLE
12 plays · 33 yds · 3:0963% → 64%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
62.7%
(03:34) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath sacked for loss of 6 yards to the Navy16 (#40 E.Ford, #99 J.Bousum)Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 16
OWN 16
0
61.9%
(02:56) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 0 yards to the Navy16 (#92 J.Latore; #14 G.Shields)Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 16
OWN 16
+21
60.4%
(02:12) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete deep middle to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at Navy36, for 21 yards to the Navy37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
60.9%
(01:58) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at Navy43, for 6 yards to the Navy43 (#5 J.Weaver)Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+18
62.6%
(01:31) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short middle to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at Army48, for 18 yards to the Army39 (#30 C.Matteson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
63.2%
(01:07) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Army33 (#51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
64.4%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short left to #22 E.Heidenreich thrown to Army28Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+6
62.8%
(00:44) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Army27 (#51 A.Thomas; #20 C.Larkin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
64.2%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete deep middle to #24 B.Chatman thrown to Army00 broken up by #14 G.ShieldsSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-18
64.0%
(00:22) No Huddle #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 18 yards loss to the Army45 fumbled by #11 B.Horvath at Army34 recovered by Army #99 J.Bousum at Army45, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:1144% → 52%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
55.8%
(00:18) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete deep right to #84 B.Anderson caught at Navy31, for 24 yards to the Navy31, out of bounds at Navy31, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
53.6%
(00:12) No Huddle #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete deep right to #15 N.Short thrown to Navy00Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
53.6%
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 3 yards gain to the Navy28 (#58 C.Cauley; #96 L.Robinson). The previous play is under automatic review - "Proper down". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+45
48.3%
(00:00) #95 D.Jones field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:3048% → 48%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
51.9%
(15:00) #3 C.Hellums pass complete short left to #15 N.Short caught at Army34, for 29 yards to the Navy46 (#16 G.Sessi), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
48.7%
(14:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 S.Howard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Navy44 (#56 M.Parker; #95 G.Willis)Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
48.3%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete short right to #15 N.Short thrown to Navy40Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+5
48.8%
(13:35) PENALTY Army False Start (#59 W.Jeffcoat) 5 yards from Navy44 to Navy49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 13
OPP 49
0
50.6%
(13:35) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete short right to #44 P.Poloskey thrown to Navy35 QB hurried by #35 L.PirrisSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
52.4%
(13:27) #46 J.Wagenseller punt 38 yards to the Navy11 fair catch by #24 B.Chatman at Navy11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:1655% → 52%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
54.5%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Navy14 (#92 J.Latore; #30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
53.8%
(12:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 0 yards to the Navy14 (#51 A.Thomas; #14 G.Shields)Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
52.1%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass intercepted by #5 J.Weaver at Navy32, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Proper down". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass intercepted by #5 J.Weaver at Navy32, End Of Play)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5954% → 57%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
46.5%
(11:44) #3 C.Hellums rush left for 3 yards gain to the Navy29 (#90 J.Moutome; #18 P.Hamilton)Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-5
45.7%
(11:05) #27 S.Howard rush left for 5 yards loss to the Navy34 (#35 L.Pirris), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+4
46.6%
(10:24) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 4 yards gain to the Navy30 (#58 C.Cauley; #0 K.McShan)Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
43.1%
(09:39) #95 D.Jones field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter), clock 09:39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 6:3644% → 49%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.2%
(09:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Navy30 (#40 E.Ford; #30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
44.4%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush left for 3 yards gain to the Navy33 (#7 J.Mayes)Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
42.8%
(08:23) No Huddle #11 B.Horvath rush left for 3 yards gain to the Navy36 (#14 G.Shields; #96 D.Stowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
43.1%
(07:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short right to #22 E.Heidenreich thrown to Navy41Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
42.8%
(07:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush left for 6 yards gain to the Navy42 (#40 E.Ford; #51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+37
42.5%
(06:52) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 37 yards gain to the Army21 (#5 J.Weaver), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
47.0%
(06:24) Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army18 (#51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+6
46.5%
(05:46) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Army12 (#30 C.Matteson; #47 N.Nixon)Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+3
44.1%
(05:09) No Huddle #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army09 (#99 J.Bousum), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
45.1%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush left for 2 yards loss to the Army11 (#30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
44.6%
(03:48) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short right to #24 B.Chatman thrown to Army11Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+8
42.1%
(03:44) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Army03 (#51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q3 2:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
49.4%
(02:59) #17 N.Kirkwood field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry), clock 02:59Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:2759% → 59%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.7%
(02:54) #3 C.Hellums rush right for 4 yards gain to the Army29 (#96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
39.5%
(02:21) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 3 yards gain to the Army32 (#49 A.Klenk)Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
38.0%
PENALTY Army False Start (#74 T.Williams) 5 yards from Army32 to Army27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-2
38.8%
(01:20) No Huddle #3 C.Hellums sacked for loss of 2 yards to the Army25 (#90 J.Moutome), fumble by #3 C.Hellums recovered by Army #74 T.Williams at Army25, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
40.7%
(00:27) #46 J.Wagenseller punt 51 yards to the Navy24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 3:1645% → 40%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
45.2%
(00:22) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush left for 3 yards gain to the Navy27 (#53 K.Fortner)Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+1
45.4%
(14:57) Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush left for 1 yard gain to the Navy28 (#52 K.Harris-Miller)Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+8
43.4%
(14:14) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at Navy33, for 8 yards to the Navy36 (#7 J.Mayes), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
45.3%
(13:42) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath sacked for loss of 10 yards to the Navy26 (#99 J.Bousum)Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+4
42.9%
(12:59) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Navy30 (#96 D.Stowers; #99 J.Bousum)Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 16
OWN 30
0
40.9%
(12:19) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short right to #46 A.Tecza thrown to Navy34Similar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+1
39.9%
(12:13) #15 J.Carlson punt 47 yards to the Army23 #23 L.Benson III return 1 yard to the Army24 (#92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3567% → 67%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
33.1%
(12:04) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Army25 (#56 M.Parker; #0 K.McShan)Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 9
OWN 25
-1
33.3%
(11:18) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass intercepted by #18 P.Hamilton at Navy49 #18 P.Hamilton return 1 yard to the Navy50 (#84 B.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:2645% → 70%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
50
+10
44.7%
(11:17) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short middle to #5 B.Woodson caught at Navy47, for 10 yards to the Army40 (#14 G.Shields), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
45.1%
(10:47) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush left for 5 yards gain to the Army35 (#40 E.Ford). #62 J.Tuioti injured on the playSimilar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+5
46.9%
PENALTY Navy False Start (#89 L.Hutchison) 5 yards from Army35 to Army40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
44.1%
(10:00) Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush left for 9 yards gain to the Army31 (#53 K.Fortner)Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
44.1%
(09:18) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army29 (#20 C.Larkin; #30 C.Matteson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+24
46.6%
(08:36) Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 24 yards gain to the Army05 (#20 C.Larkin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
46.2%
(08:00) #11 B.Horvath rush left for 4 yards gain to the Army01 (#20 C.Larkin; #53 K.Fortner). The previous play is under automatic review - "Proper down". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-7
41.8%
(07:31) #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 7 yards loss to the Army08 fumbled by #11 B.Horvath at Army01 recovered by Navy #22 E.Heidenreich at Army08, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 6:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
38.8%
(06:45) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short left to #46 A.Tecza thrown to Army16 QB hurried by #14 G.ShieldsSimilar
Q4 6:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
69.6%
(06:37) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short middle to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at Army00, for 8 yards to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:32 #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3538% → 34%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.5%
(06:32) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 0 yards to the Army25 (#95 G.Willis)Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
62.8%
(05:54) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete short right to #15 N.Short thrown to Army40 PENALTY Army Holding (#27 S.Howard) 10 yards from Army25 to Army15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+8
63.2%
(05:48) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Army23 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
64.6%
(05:06) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete deep middle to #84 B.Anderson thrown to Navy40 broken up by #2 M.WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+5
66.2%
(04:55) #46 J.Wagenseller punt 44 yards to the Navy33 #24 B.Chatman return 5 yards to the Navy38 (#44 J.Lindsey; #14 G.Shields)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16END OF GAME
13 plays · 19 yds · 4:3070% → 92%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
69.6%
(04:48) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Navy40 (#20 C.Larkin; #10 C.Searight)Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
70.4%
(04:03) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush left for 6 yards gain to the Navy46 (#51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
73.7%
(03:15) Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Navy50 (#51 A.Thomas; #20 C.Larkin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
50
+5
75.4%
(02:33) Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Army45 (#20 C.Larkin)Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
77.3%
(02:27) Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army43 (#14 G.Shields; #51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
76.2%
(02:22) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army41 fumbled by #11 B.Horvath at Army43 forced by #53 K.Fortner recovered by Navy #11 B.Horvath at Army43 (#30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
75.6%
(01:53) #46 A.Tecza rush left for 2 yards gain to the Army39 (#30 C.Matteson; #40 E.Ford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
83.0%
(01:26) Kneel down by Navy at Army40 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-2
83.9%
(00:45) Kneel down by Navy at Army42 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 13
OPP 42
-1
91.8%
(00:10) Kneel down by Navy at Army43 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:37
(06:37) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short middle to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at Army00, for 8 yards to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:32 #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)
+30.9
FG · Q3 2:59
(02:59) #17 N.Kirkwood field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry), clock 02:59
+7.3
FG · Q2 0:03
(00:00) #95 D.Jones field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter), clock 00:00
-5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com