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TLSA

Tulsa 26 at Army 25

ARMY
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:06 · (14:21) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete deep right to #7 Z.Steptoe caught at Army07, for 33 yards to the Army07 QB hurried by #53 K.Fortner, out of bounds at Army07, 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Pregame prior+15.4Home team on offense−1.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:01: Ajay Allen 7 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick) — TLSA win probability +6.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:47: Cale Hellums 5 Yd Run (Cale Hellums Pass to Tex Brannan for Two-Point Conversion) — ARMY win probability +11.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:24: (00:26) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 5 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:24 #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter) — ARMY win probability +8.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:53: (01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short middle to #15 J.Smith caught at Army00, for 8 yards to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53 #10 B.Hayes pass attempt failed — TLSA win probability +31.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 0:12: (00:14) #11 S.Morgan field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #29 A.Davies, LS: #42 A.Fedigan), clock 00:12 — TLSA win probability +65.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:43TLSA 4th & 10 at ARMY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:56ARMY 4th & 3 at TLSA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    72.7%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:06TLSA 4th & 4 at ARMY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    29.2%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:13ARMY 4th & 1 at TLSA 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−3.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:47ARMY 4th & 3 at TLSA 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−8.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:33TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:03ARMY 4th & 5 at TLSA 17, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−6.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:30ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:55ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 49, up 11
    Close callPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:33TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.1%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:17TLSA 4th & 2 at ARMY 30, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.4%−1.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:36ARMY 4th & 3 at TLSA 39, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%−4.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−6.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:23TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:34ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:01TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:47ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:24ARMY Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:53TLSA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    27.7%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    28.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:2029% → 31%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.8%
(14:59) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #7 Z.Steptoe caught at Tulsa23, for 1 yard to the Tulsa26 QB hurried by #99 J.Bousum (#92 J.Latore)Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
70.7%
(14:26) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush left for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa29 (#92 J.Latore)Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+50
70.6%
(13:57) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete deep right to #18 D.Gee Jr. caught at Army32, for 50 yards to the Army21 (#7 J.Mayes), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Army Pass Interference declinedSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
70.3%
(13:36) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #80 B.Foley caught at Army18, for 3 yards to the Army18 (#51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+7
70.2%
(13:06) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #19 G.Tempest caught at Army11, for 7 yards to the Army11 (#14 G.Shields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
70.1%
(12:36) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Army03 (#30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
69.3%
D. Richardson run for 3 yds, for a TD (S. Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3069% → 71%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
69.4%
(12:23) #3 C.Hellums pass complete deep middle to #15 N.Short caught at Tulsa39, for 44 yards to the Tulsa31, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
70.8%
(11:37) #3 C.Hellums rush left for 31 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:34, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3MISSED FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 3:3230% → 31%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
70.2%
(11:27) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short middle to #80 B.Foley caught at Tulsa28, for 17 yards to the Tulsa34 (#30 C.Matteson; #51 A.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
70.0%
(10:57) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush right for 0 yards to the Tulsa34 (#40 E.Ford; #51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+13
70.0%
(10:28) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short middle to #19 G.Tempest caught at Tulsa41, for 13 yards to the Tulsa47 (#14 G.Shields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
69.5%
(09:57) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #15 J.Smith thrown to Army38Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
69.6%
(09:52) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush left for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa49 (#51 A.Thomas; #47 N.Nixon)Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+11
69.6%
(09:26) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #18 D.Gee Jr. thrown to Army37, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Army Pass Interference (#17 J.Hammond) 11 yard from Tulsa49 to Army40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
69.3%
(09:20) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush left for 2 yards gain to the Army38 (#30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
69.0%
(08:41) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short middle to #18 D.Gee Jr. thrown to Army41 broken up by #51 A.ThomasSimilar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+9
69.1%
(08:37) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #23 L.Lucas caught at Army34, for 9 yards to the Army29 (#53 K.Fortner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
68.7%
(08:04) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete deep left thrown to Army00Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
68.7%
(07:56) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #18 D.Gee Jr. thrown to Army10Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
68.9%
(07:51) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #19 G.Tempest thrown to Army33Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
69.4%
(07:46) #11 S.Morgan field goal attempt from 47 yards NO GOOD blocked by #4 C.Martin (H: #29 A.Davies, LS: #42 A.Fedigan), clock 07:43, out of bounds at Army00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:3670% → 69%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
69.5%
(07:41) #27 S.Howard rush left for 15 yards gain to the Army44 (#18 Z.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
70.0%
(06:59) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 5 yards gain to the Army49 (#58 T.Rich)Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+5
70.0%
(06:22) #15 N.Short rush left for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa48 (#35 C.Turner III) PENALTY Tulsa Offside (#90 J.Hjelle) 5 yards from Army49 to Tulsa46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
70.1%
(05:52) Shotgun #34 C.Smith rush left for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa42 (#7 E.Green)Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
70.0%
(05:17) Shotgun #15 N.Short rush left for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa38 (#7 E.Green)Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+5
69.8%
PENALTY Tulsa Disconcerting Signals (#7 E.Green) 5 yards from Tulsa38 to Tulsa33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
70.2%
(04:34) Shotgun #33 J.Rendina rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa31 (#0 R.Coney; #58 T.Rich)Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
70.1%
(03:55) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete deep right to #15 N.Short thrown to Tulsa00 QB hurried by #35 C.Turner IIISimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+5
69.7%
(03:48) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Tulsa26 (#27 Z.Woodham)Similar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 3
OPP 26
0
69.0%
(03:01) Shotgun #15 N.Short rush left for 0 yards to the Tulsa26 (#21 S.Smith), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:4632% → 40%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
68.3%
(02:54) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 15 yards gain to the Tulsa41 (#51 A.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
67.2%
(02:31) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa43 (#30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+11
66.9%
(01:59) Shotgun #2 A.Allen rush middle for 11 yards gain to the Army46 (#14 G.Shields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
66.5%
(01:26) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #23 L.Lucas caught at Army43, for 7 yards to the Army39 (#99 J.Bousum) PENALTY Tulsa Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#72 J.Adams) 5 yards from Army46 to Tulsa49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 15
OWN 49
0
67.0%
(00:57) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush left for 0 yards to the Tulsa49 (#53 K.Fortner; #47 N.Nixon)Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+7
67.1%
(00:28) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes rush left for 7 yards gain to the Army44, out of bounds at Army44Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+4
66.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Army40 (#92 J.Latore; #53 K.Fortner)Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+33
66.6%
(14:21) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete deep right to #7 Z.Steptoe caught at Army07, for 33 yards to the Army07 QB hurried by #53 K.Fortner, out of bounds at Army07, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
59.7%
Ajay Allen 7 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6DOWNS
15 plays · 70 yds · 7:5362% → 70%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
61.8%
(13:54) #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army31 (#27 Z.Woodham; #0 R.Coney)Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+9
61.6%
(13:17) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 9 yards gain to the Army40 (#27 Z.Woodham; #58 T.Rich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
62.0%
(12:38) #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army43 (#18 Z.Williams; #0 R.Coney)Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+8
61.9%
(11:57) #3 C.Hellums rush right for 8 yards gain to the Tulsa49 (#27 Z.Woodham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
62.1%
(11:16) #3 C.Hellums rush right for 1 yard gain to the Tulsa48 (#18 Z.Williams; #32 H.Ball)Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+5
61.6%
(10:34) #3 C.Hellums rush left for 5 yards gain to the Tulsa43 (#0 R.Coney)Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+3
61.0%
(09:57) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa40 (#99 T.Newhouse; #15 A.Williams)Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
59.7%
(09:18) #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa38 (#58 T.Rich; #0 R.Coney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
60.5%
(08:40) Shotgun #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa36 (#0 R.Coney; #16 D.Robinson)Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+13
59.3%
(08:04) #15 N.Short rush right for 14 yards gain (13) to the Tulsa22 (#21 S.Smith; #15 A.Williams), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Tulsa Illegal Block in Back (#13 N.Campbell) 10 yards from Tulsa23 to Tulsa13Similar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
59.6%
(06:56) #34 C.Smith rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa09 (#21 S.Smith; #15 A.Williams)Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+3
59.5%
(06:35) #3 C.Hellums rush left for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa06 (#32 H.Ball; #15 A.Williams)Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+1
58.2%
(06:20) #33 J.Rendina rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Tulsa05 (#33 W.Alexander; #58 T.Rich)Similar
Q2 5:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+5
69.6%
Cale Hellums 5 Yd Run (Cale Hellums Pass to Tex Brannan for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0732% → 30%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
68.5%
(05:40) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete deep middle to #18 D.Gee Jr. thrown to Tulsa45 QB hurried by #52 K.Harris-MillerSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+6
68.7%
(05:30) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush right for 6 yards gain to the Tulsa08 (#30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+9
69.5%
(04:58) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #7 Z.Steptoe caught at Tulsa15, for 9 yards to the Tulsa17, out of bounds at Tulsa17, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
68.0%
(04:29) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #2 A.Allen thrown to Tulsa28 QB hurried by #99 J.BousumSimilar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
68.3%
(04:25) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #19 G.Tempest caught at Tulsa21, for 4 yards to the Tulsa21 QB hurried by #94 J.Smith, out of bounds at Tulsa21Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
68.9%
(03:47) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete deep middle to #7 Z.Steptoe thrown to Tulsa43Similar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 6
OWN 21
+1
69.7%
(03:40) #29 A.Davies punt 35 yards to the Army44 #23 L.Benson III return 1 yard to the Army45 (#40 A.Dunbar)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
14 plays · 55 yds · 3:0171% → 81%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
70.8%
(03:29) #3 C.Hellums rush right for 24 yards gain to the Tulsa31 (#35 C.Turner III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
71.6%
(02:54) #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa29 (#88 N.Johnson)Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+4
71.6%
(02:15) #3 C.Hellums pass complete short middle to #15 N.Short caught at Tulsa31, for 4 yards to the Tulsa25 (#35 C.Turner III; #15 A.Williams)Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+7
70.4%
(01:59) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 7 yards gain to the Tulsa18 (#15 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
71.8%
(01:23) Shotgun #15 N.Short rush left for 6 yards gain to the Tulsa12 (#99 T.Newhouse; #2 J.Cannady)Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+3
73.0%
(01:18) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa09 (#32 H.Ball)Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+4
71.8%
(01:13) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa05 (#15 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
73.1%
(01:05) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 0 yards to the Tulsa05 (#90 J.Hjelle; #15 A.Williams)Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
81.1%
(00:26) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 5 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:24 #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9END OF HALF
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:0820% → 22%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
79.7%
(00:17) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 17 yards gain to the Tulsa35 (#30 C.Matteson; #3 S.Nnadozie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
79.2%
(00:09) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 17 yards gain to the Army48 (#20 C.Larkin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
77.8%
(00:03) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
77.7%
(00:00) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete deep right to #7 Z.Steptoe thrown to Army01 QB hurried by #51 A.ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 7:4179% → 84%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
79.0%
(14:54) No Huddle #34 C.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army25 (#21 S.Smith; #32 H.Ball)Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
79.0%
(14:09) Shotgun #15 N.Short rush left for 5 yards gain to the Army30 (#32 H.Ball; #0 R.Coney)Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+4
78.6%
(13:32) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 4 yards gain to the Army34 (#32 H.Ball), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
79.5%
(12:53) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete deep middle to #44 P.Poloskey thrown to Tulsa40Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-1
79.3%
(12:47) #3 C.Hellums rush left for 1 yard loss to the Army33 (#0 R.Coney)Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+12
78.3%
(12:09) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short left to #84 B.Anderson caught at Army45, for 12 yards to the Army45, out of bounds at Army45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
81.0%
(11:32) #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army47 (#0 R.Coney)Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
81.1%
(10:57) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army49 (#90 J.Hjelle; #10 T.Hardiman)Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
80.5%
(10:15) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Tulsa43 (#0 R.Coney; #99 T.Newhouse), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
81.8%
(09:33) #33 J.Rendina rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa41 (#33 W.Alexander)Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+19
81.9%
(08:53) #3 C.Hellums rush left for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa37 (#7 E.Green; #32 H.Ball) PENALTY Tulsa Personal Foul (#16 D.Robinson) 15 yards from Tulsa37 to Tulsa22, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
82.4%
(08:26) #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete deep left to #84 B.Anderson thrown to Tulsa00. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". PLAY OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (08:26) #3 C.Hellums pass complete deep left to #84 B.Anderson caught at Tulsa00, for 22 yards to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:26, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
82.3%
(08:20) #3 C.Hellums rush right for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa19 (#0 R.Coney; #33 W.Alexander)Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+2
82.0%
(07:45) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa17 (#33 W.Alexander)Similar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+33
84.0%
(07:06) #95 D.Jones field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter), clock 07:03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11FUMBLE
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:0018% → 18%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
82.4%
(06:49) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush right for 9 yards gain to the Tulsa41 (#30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
81.5%
(06:16) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #23 L.Lucas caught at Tulsa41, for 0 yards to the Tulsa41 QB hurried by #99 J.Bousum (#14 G.Shields)Similar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
81.8%
(05:37) Shotgun #80 B.Foley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa43 (#14 G.Shields; #98 D.Gray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
82.8%
(05:02) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short middle to #7 Z.Steptoe caught at Army45, for 12 yards to the Army45 QB hurried by #53 K.Fortner (#20 C.Larkin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
81.7%
(04:37) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush left for 8 yards gain to the Army37 (#14 G.Shields)Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+10
81.4%
(04:14) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete deep left to #19 G.Tempest caught at Army08, for 37 yards to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 04:11 PENALTY Tulsa Holding (#65 S.Hill) 10 yards from Army37 to Army47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+13
82.6%
(04:11) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 13 yards gain to the Army34 (#7 J.Mayes; #40 E.Ford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
82.0%
(03:45) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Army30 (#14 G.Shields; #51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
81.7%
(03:15) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete deep middle to #80 B.Foley thrown to Army04 QB hurried by #30 C.MattesonSimilar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+20
83.4%
(03:09) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 20 yards gain to the Army10 (#20 C.Larkin; #7 J.Mayes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
81.8%
(02:46) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes rush middle for 4 yards loss to the Army14 fumbled by #10 B.Hayes at Army15 recovered by Army #40 E.Ford at Army14 #40 E.Ford return 1 yard to the Army15 (#10 B.Hayes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:0287% → 86%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
86.7%
(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #15 N.Short caught at Army12, for 2 yards loss to the Army13 (#27 Z.Woodham)Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+4
86.8%
(01:56) #3 C.Hellums rush right for 4 yards gain to the Army17 (#58 T.Rich; #90 J.Hjelle)Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-2
86.3%
(01:12) #15 N.Short rush right for 2 yards loss to the Army15 (#27 Z.Woodham; #0 R.Coney)Similar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
86.4%
(00:33) #46 J.Wagenseller punt 35 yards to the Army50 fair catch by #19 G.Tempest at Army50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13Uncategorized
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:2017% → 16%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
50
+1
83.5%
(00:29) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes rush left for 1 yard gain to the Army49, out of bounds at Army49Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+28
83.7%
(00:04) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete deep left to #15 J.Smith caught at Army29, for 28 yards to the Army21 fumbled by #15 J.Smith at Army24 forced by #14 G.Shields recovered by Army #30 C.Matteson at Army21, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 6:0588% → 91%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
88.4%
Shotgun #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army23 (#21 S.Smith)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+3
88.4%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army26 (#27 Z.Woodham; #99 T.Newhouse)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+8
87.9%
Shotgun #15 N.Short rush left for 8 yards gain to the Army34 (#0 R.Coney; #18 Z.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
88.5%
#33 J.Rendina rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Army39 (#90 J.Hjelle; #15 A.Williams)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+5
89.1%
#3 C.Hellums rush left for 5 yards gain to the Army44 (#21 S.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
89.2%
#34 C.Smith rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army47 (#21 S.Smith)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+1
89.2%
#3 C.Hellums pass complete short left to #15 N.Short caught at Army48, for 1 yard to the Army48 (#7 E.Green)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+1
88.5%
#3 C.Hellums rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Army49 (#58 T.Rich)Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
91.2%
(08:55) #46 J.Wagenseller punt 33 yards to the Tulsa18 fair catch by #19 G.Tempest at Tulsa18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15FG
13 plays · 30 yds · 4:329% → 11%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
91.1%
(08:53) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa22 (#30 C.Matteson; #51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+6
91.0%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Tulsa28 (#53 K.Fortner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
90.7%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa32 (#51 A.Thomas; #40 E.Ford)Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
90.1%
(07:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #80 B.Foley thrown to Tulsa36. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". PLAY OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (07:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #80 B.Foley caught at Tulsa36, for 6 yards to the Tulsa38 fumbled by #80 B.Foley at Tulsa36 forced by #53 K.Fortner recovered by Tulsa #80 B.Foley at Tulsa38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+5
91.6%
(07:23) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short middle to #19 G.Tempest caught at Tulsa36, for 5 yards to the Tulsa37 (#53 K.Fortner)Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+4
91.7%
(06:42) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #80 B.Foley caught at Tulsa36, for 4 yards to the Tulsa41 (#30 C.Matteson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
91.2%
(06:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #7 Z.Steptoe caught at Army46, for 21 yards to the Army38 (#53 K.Fortner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
90.8%
(05:50) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army36 (#52 K.Harris-Miller; #53 K.Fortner)Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+10
90.9%
(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes rush right for 7 yards gain to the Army29, out of bounds at Army29 PENALTY Tulsa Holding (#73 C.East) 10 yards from Army36 to Army46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 18
OPP 46
-6
91.9%
(05:07) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes sacked for loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa48 (#99 J.Bousum)Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 24
OWN 48
+22
93.5%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short middle to #21 D.Richardson caught at Tulsa48, for 22 yards to the Army30 QB hurried by #92 J.Latore (#7 J.Mayes)Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+48
88.9%
(04:20) #11 S.Morgan field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #29 A.Davies, LS: #42 A.Fedigan), clock 04:17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:4594% → 95%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
94.2%
(04:14) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 0 yards to the Army13 (#90 J.Hjelle; #32 H.Ball)Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
94.7%
(03:32) #3 C.Hellums pass intercepted by #21 S.Smith at Army40 QB hurried by #10 T.Hardiman and #32 H.Ball, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:2512% → 42%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
87.9%
(03:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 12 yards gain to the Army28 (#20 C.Larkin; #40 E.Ford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
86.3%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush left for 0 yards to the Army28 (#40 E.Ford; #92 J.Latore)Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
87.7%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short middle to #19 G.Tempest caught at Army30, for 7 yards to the Army21 QB hurried by #51 A.Thomas (#30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+13
89.3%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 13 yards gain to the Army08 (#47 N.Nixon; #5 J.Weaver), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
57.8%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short middle to #15 J.Smith caught at Army00, for 8 yards to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53 #10 B.Hayes pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:1487% → 85%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
86.6%
(01:53) #33 J.Rendina rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa44 (#58 T.Rich; #10 T.Hardiman)Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
86.8%
(01:50) #15 N.Short rush left for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa41 (#15 A.Williams; #27 Z.Woodham), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+2
86.0%
(01:43) #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa39 (#90 J.Hjelle; #32 H.Ball)Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
85.4%
(01:39) #3 C.Hellums rush right for 0 yards to the Tulsa39 (#7 E.Green), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 1:1523% → 91%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
77.0%
(01:35) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #15 J.Smith caught at Tulsa47, for 14 yards to the Army47 (#51 A.Thomas), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
74.5%
(01:27) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Army41 (#53 K.Fortner)Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+5
75.0%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Army36 (#92 J.Latore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
75.8%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 17 yards gain to the Army19 (#7 J.Mayes; #3 S.Nnadozie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
71.7%
(00:54) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush left for 5 yards gain to the Army14 (#52 K.Harris-Miller; #30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
71.6%
(00:47) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Army10 (#92 J.Latore; #51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+1
73.0%
(00:42) Shotgun #2 A.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Army09 (#7 J.Mayes; #14 G.Shields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
73.5%
(00:15) #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
8.6%
(00:14) #11 S.Morgan field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #29 A.Davies, LS: #42 A.Fedigan), clock 00:12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.4%
(00:10) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #11 T.Olawole caught at Army33, for 5 yards to the Army30 lateral to #23 L.Benson III for 8 yards loss to the Army23 lateral to #3 C.Hellums for 7 yards gain to the Army30 lateral to #7 G.Nwawuihe for 0 yards to the Army30 (#11 J.Burnett; #32 H.Ball), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:12
(00:14) #11 S.Morgan field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #29 A.Davies, LS: #42 A.Fedigan), clock 00:12
-65
TD · Q4 1:53
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short middle to #15 J.Smith caught at Army00, for 8 yards to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53 #10 B.Hayes pass attempt failed
-31.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com