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UTSA

UTSA 28 at Charlotte 7

CLT
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of GamePUNT-3.5CLT 19.0%(05:23) #95 B.Long punt 42 yards tothe UTSA00, TouchbackAWAY 7 - HOME 0 · Q3 5:19
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:19 · (05:23) #95 B.Long punt 42 yards to the UTSA00, Touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior−19.9Home team on offense−8.4Score differential−2.9Garbage-time factor−3.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:19: (01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Henry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UTSA50 (#13 G.Willis), 1ST DOWN — UTSA win probability +4.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. PUNT · Q3 5:19: (05:23) #95 B.Long punt 42 yards to the UTSA00, Touchback — UTSA win probability +3.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:17: (03:27) #23 W.Henderson III rush right for 59 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:17, 1ST DOWN #92 M.Petro kick attempt good (H: #20 C.Hogan, LS: #91 I.Hatfield) — UTSA win probability +7.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:17: (12:21) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short left to #84 A.Wilson thrown to UTSA40 broken up by #4 G.Shipman — UTSA win probability +3.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:40: (09:53) #99 J.Murphy kickoff 68 yards to the CLT12 #89 D.Eley return 88 yards to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:40 #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #95 B.Long, LS: #39 C.Garfield) — CLT win probability +3.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:42CLT 4th & 16 at CLT 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:37CLT 4th & 13 at CLT 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:14CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:55UTSA 4th & 29 at UTSA 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:05CLT 4th & 15 at CLT 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:54UTSA 4th & 16 at CLT 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:10CLT 4th & 12 at CLT 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:07UTSA 4th & 6 at CLT 35, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.7%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:37UTSA 4th & 4 at CLT 18, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:19CLT 4th & 16 at UTSA 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%−1.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:17UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.1%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:31CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:21CLT 4th & 2 at UTSA 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−1.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:15CLT 4th & 5 at UTSA 17, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 8:34UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:17UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:53UTSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:40CLT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:46UTSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 4:078% → 10%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.4%
(15:00) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete short right to #7 E.Mason caught at CLT25, for 4 yards to the CLT29 (#15 T.Milton)Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
8.6%
(14:29) Shotgun #25 C.Smith rush left for 2 yards gain to the CLT31 (#0 S.Banks Jr.)Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
8.8%
(13:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete short right to #8 S.Brown caught at CLT41, for 10 yards to the CLT41, out of bounds at CLT41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
9.1%
(13:22) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete short middle to #8 S.Brown caught at CLT42, for 13 yards to the UTSA46 (#9 K.Blackshire), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
9.4%
(12:33) Shotgun #25 C.Smith rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTSA45 (#0 S.Banks Jr.)Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+3
9.7%
(12:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 C.Smith rush left for 3 yards gain to the UTSA42 (#35 J.Jones)Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 6
OPP 42
-10
9.9%
(11:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis sacked for loss of 10 yards to the CLT48 (#94 K.Ozowalu)Similar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
10.0%
(10:42) #95 B.Long punt 37 yards to the UTSA15 #8 D.Amador II return 0 yards to the UTSA15 (#12 C.Clinkscales)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:0290% → 90%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
10.1%
(10:42) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #1 D.McCuin caught at UTSA20, for 7 yards to the UTSA22 (#12 C.Clinkscales)Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 3
OWN 22
0
10.1%
(10:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short left to #8 D.Amador II thrown to UTSA29Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+4
10.3%
(10:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Henry rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UTSA26 (#18 Z.Shockley; #44 B.Mullen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
10.4%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #1 D.McCuin caught at UTSA32, for 14 yards to the UTSA40 (#40 R.Williford), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
10.4%
(09:29) Shotgun #3 R.Henry rush right for 6 yards gain to the UTSA46 (#35 S.Taylor)Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
10.6%
(08:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #9 P.Overmyer caught at CLT49, for 9 yards to the CLT45 (#6 J.Conley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
9.7%
Devin McCuin 45 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:4910% → 11%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
10.1%
(08:34) Shotgun #25 C.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CLT27 (#12 M.Wilkerson; #42 D.Wimberly)Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
10.2%
(08:00) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete short left to #5 J.Nicholas caught at CLT31, for 6 yards to the CLT33 (#15 T.Milton), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
10.5%
(07:14) Shotgun #25 C.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CLT35 (#19 J.Bowens III; #0 S.Banks Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
10.6%
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass incomplete deep right to #7 E.Mason thrown to UTSA37Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-3
10.7%
(06:31) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete short right to #5 J.Nicholas caught at CLT30, for 3 yards loss to the CLT32 (#3 D.Martin)Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
10.7%
(05:51) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass incomplete deep middle to #5 J.Nicholas thrown to UTSA38Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
10.6%
(05:44) #95 B.Long punt 31 yards to the UTSA37 fair catch by #8 D.Amador II at UTSA37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4INT
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:1389% → 89%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
10.6%
(05:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #8 D.Amador II caught at UTSA34, for 6 yards to the UTSA43 (#5 T.Baldwin)Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+22
10.6%
(05:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #84 A.Wilson caught at UTSA45, for 22 yards to the CLT35 (#0 R.Franklin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
10.6%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush right for 5 yards gain to the CLT30 (#35 S.Taylor) PENALTY CLT Illegal Substitution 5 yards from CLT35 to CLT30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 5
OPP 30
+4
10.7%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #8 D.Amador II caught at CLT30, for 4 yards to the CLT26 (#51 J.Solomon; #35 S.Taylor)Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+1
10.8%
(03:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Henry rush left for 1 yard gain to the CLT25 (#35 S.Taylor), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CLT Face Mask (#35 S.Taylor) 13 yards from CLT25 to CLT12, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
10.8%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Henry rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CLT06 (#19 K.Schmitz)Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
10.9%
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass intercepted by #4 G.Shipman at CLT00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5712% → 11%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
11.6%
(03:18) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass incomplete deep left to #8 S.Brown thrown to UTSA30 broken up by #27 J.RodgersSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
11.6%
(03:10) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete short right to #5 J.Nicholas caught at CLT20, for 5 yards to the CLT25 (#2 O.Pewee; #3 D.Martin)Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
11.6%
(02:33) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Nicholas thrown to CLT27 QB hurried by #31 V.ShawSimilar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
11.4%
(02:24) #95 B.Long punt 59 yards to the UTSA16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:0488% → 87%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+22
11.7%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush middle for 22 yards gain to the UTSA38 (#35 S.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
11.4%
(01:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush right for 4 yards loss to the UTSA34 (#2 T.McGee; #32 C.Simpson)Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+6
12.0%
(01:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #0 H.Thomas caught at UTSA38, for 6 yards to the UTSA40 QB hurried by #44 B.Mullen (#2 T.McGee)Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+12
11.8%
(00:43) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #1 D.McCuin caught at CLT48, for 12 yards to the CLT48 (#5 T.Baldwin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
11.6%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #0 H.Thomas caught at CLT48, for 6 yards to the CLT42 (#6 J.Conley; #40 R.Williford)Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-25
11.6%
(15:00) Shotgun #3 R.Henry rush middle for 25 yards loss to the UTSA33 (#40 R.Williford)Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 29
OWN 33
0
12.8%
(14:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short right to #1 D.McCuin thrown to UTSA40Similar
Q2 13:55
4TH & 29
OWN 33
0
13.0%
(14:05) #20 C.Hogan punt 43 yards to the CLT24 #89 D.Eley return 0 yards to the CLT24 (#27 J.Rodgers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:4513% → 14%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
12.8%
(13:55) Shotgun #6 R.Gainey Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the CLT24 (#98 J.Buxton)Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
12.9%
(13:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass incomplete short middle to #87 J.Young thrown to CLT30 broken up by #98 J.BuxtonSimilar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+17
12.7%
(13:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete short right to #8 S.Brown caught at CLT35, for 17 yards to the CLT41, out of bounds at CLT41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
13.8%
(12:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis rush left for 0 yards to the CLT41, out of bounds at CLT41Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
13.8%
(12:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete short left to #5 J.Nicholas caught at CLT42, for 11 yards to the UTSA48 (#16 C.Bryson II; #14 J.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
14.7%
(11:32) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete short left to #6 R.Gainey Jr. caught at UTSA47, for 1 yard to the UTSA47 (#31 V.Shaw), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
14.8%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass incomplete deep left to #7 E.Mason thrown to UTSA25Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 9
OPP 47
-6
14.5%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis sacked for loss of 6 yards to the CLT47 (#34 J.Walley Jr.)Similar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
13.7%
(10:13) #95 B.Long punt 53 yards to the UTSA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8MISSED FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:0286% → 86%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
13.8%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #1 D.McCuin caught at UTSA20, for 9 yards to the UTSA29 (#13 G.Willis)Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
13.4%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UTSA35 (#19 K.Schmitz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
13.7%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short left to #84 A.Wilson thrown to UTSA34 QB hurried by #10 J.Liverpool and #20 Y.TalibSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
13.9%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush right for 10 yards gain to the UTSA45 (#0 R.Franklin; #13 G.Willis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
13.4%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTSA47 (#20 Y.Talib; #51 J.Solomon)Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+43
13.0%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #84 A.Wilson caught at UTSA42, for 43 yards to the CLT10 (#0 R.Franklin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
12.8%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CLT11 (#13 G.Willis) PENALTY UTSA Personal Foul (#74 D.Jones) 15 yards from CLT11 to CLT26Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 26
0
13.1%
(06:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short right to #23 W.Henderson III thrown to CLT20 broken up by #19 K.SchmitzSimilar
Q2 6:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 26
+10
13.5%
(06:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush middle for 10 yards gain to the CLT16 (#6 J.Conley; #1 C.Curtain)Similar
Q2 5:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
14.5%
(05:54) #92 M.Petro field goal attempt from 33 yards NO GOOD (H: #20 C.Hogan, LS: #91 I.Hatfield), clock 05:54Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:3815% → 15%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
14.8%
(05:54) Shotgun #25 C.Smith rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CLT26 (#20 Z.Morris)Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
15.2%
(05:16) Shotgun #25 C.Smith rush right for 7 yards gain to the CLT33 (#20 Z.Morris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
15.5%
(04:33) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass incomplete deep middle to #8 S.Brown thrown to UTSA30Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-2
15.5%
(04:25) Shotgun #5 J.Nicholas rush left for 2 yards loss to the CLT31 (#15 T.Milton)Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 12
OWN 31
0
15.0%
(03:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis rush left for 0 yards to the CLT31 (#0 S.Banks Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
14.9%
(03:13) #95 B.Long punt 41 yards to the UTSA28 fair catch by #8 D.Amador II at UTSA28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10DOWNS
13 plays · 37 yds · 2:5786% → 86%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
14.5%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #1 D.McCuin caught at UTSA34, for 7 yards to the UTSA35 (#4 G.Shipman), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+2
14.0%
(02:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Henry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTSA37 (#13 G.Willis)Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+1
14.1%
(02:10) #9 P.Overmyer rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTSA38 (#19 K.Schmitz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
13.9%
(02:00) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short right to #1 D.McCuin thrown to UTSA44. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (02:00) #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #1 D.McCuin caught at UTSA44, for 6 yards to the UTSA44, out of bounds at UTSA44)Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
14.0%
(01:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Henry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTSA40 (#40 R.Williford)Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+5
14.2%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.McCuin thrown to CLT39 PENALTY CLT Offside (#40 R.Williford) 5 yards from UTSA40 to UTSA45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
13.3%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Henry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UTSA50 (#13 G.Willis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
50
+11
13.0%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #9 P.Overmyer caught at CLT45, for 11 yards to the CLT39 (#1 C.Curtain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
12.7%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short left to #84 A.Wilson thrown to CLT20 QB hurried by #18 Z.ShockleySimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
12.9%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short middle to #0 H.Thomas thrown to CLT25Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+4
13.1%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #84 A.Wilson caught at CLT36, for 4 yards to the CLT35 (#85 C.Irving)Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
14.0%
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete deep left to #84 A.Wilson thrown to CLT00 broken up by #0 R.Franklin, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
15.8%
(00:07) Kneel down by #12 G.Loftis at CLT33 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12MISSED FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 5:1385% → 84%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
15.3%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush right for 7 yards gain to the UTSA32 (#9 C.Grant), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
14.8%
(14:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UTSA41 (#0 R.Franklin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
14.5%
(14:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #1 D.McCuin caught at UTSA47, for 6 yards to the UTSA47, out of bounds at UTSA47Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
14.6%
(13:28) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short left to #1 D.McCuin thrown to CLT45 broken up by #32 C.SimpsonSimilar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+4
14.8%
(13:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CLT49 (#20 Y.Talib; #32 C.Simpson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
14.6%
(12:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush left for 13 yards gain to the CLT36 (#19 K.Schmitz; #5 T.Baldwin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
14.6%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #23 W.Henderson III caught at CLT36, for 6 yards to the CLT30 (#0 R.Franklin)Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
14.4%
(11:55) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short right to #1 D.McCuin thrown to CLT18Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+6
14.8%
(11:52) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CLT24 (#1 C.Curtain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
14.6%
(11:11) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CLT18 (#19 K.Schmitz; #3 C.Gill)Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
14.7%
(10:30) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 0 yards to the CLT18 (#5 T.Baldwin)Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
15.4%
(09:43) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short left to #13 J.Hardy thrown to CLT13Similar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
16.5%
(09:37) #92 M.Petro field goal attempt from 35 yards NO GOOD (H: #20 C.Hogan, LS: #91 I.Hatfield), clock 09:37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 4:1318% → 19%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
18.2%
(09:37) Shotgun #25 C.Smith rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CLT28 (#1 T.Leonard)Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
19.6%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 C.Smith rush left for 6 yards gain to the CLT34 (#3 D.Martin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
19.0%
(08:40) Shotgun #24 J.Cobb rush left for 10 yards gain to the CLT44 (#7 J.Wyrick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
20.7%
(07:57) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete short middle to #17 G.McGee caught at UTSA40, for 20 yards to the UTSA36 (#20 Z.Morris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
22.1%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Cobb rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTSA35 (#31 V.Shaw; #13 C.Otutu)Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+3
23.5%
(06:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Cobb rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UTSA32 (#33 N.Anyanwu)Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-10
22.6%
(06:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UTSA42 (#35 J.Jones)Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 16
OPP 42
0
19.0%
(05:23) #95 B.Long punt 42 yards to the UTSA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:5282% → 92%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
17.9%
(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #84 A.Wilson caught at UTSA31, for 12 yards to the UTSA32 (#5 T.Baldwin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
16.9%
(04:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #84 A.Wilson caught at UTSA38, for 6 yards to the UTSA38 (#5 T.Baldwin), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+2
16.2%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTSA40 (#13 G.Willis)Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+1
16.2%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTSA41 (#13 G.Willis)Similar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+59
8.4%
(03:27) #23 W.Henderson III rush right for 59 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:17, 1ST DOWN #92 M.Petro kick attempt good (H: #20 C.Hogan, LS: #91 I.Hatfield)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:449% → 9%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
9.4%
(03:19) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete short right to #7 E.Mason caught at CLT10, for 4 yards to the CLT17 (#15 T.Milton; #20 Z.Morris)Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
9.4%
(02:38) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass incomplete short right thrown to CLT20 QB hurried by #19 J.Bowens IIISimilar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+6
9.3%
(02:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete short left to #24 J.Cobb caught at CLT15, for 6 yards to the CLT23 (#9 K.Blackshire), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
9.2%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass incomplete short right to #89 D.Eley thrown to CLT35Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
9.0%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Cobb rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CLT25 (#0 S.Banks Jr.)Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+2
8.9%
(01:16) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CLT27 (#94 K.Ozowalu)Similar
Q3 0:31
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+20
8.9%
(00:42) #95 B.Long punt 39 yards to the UTSA34 #8 D.Amador II return 20 yards to the CLT46 (#42 J.Okate)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16Uncategorized
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
7.1%
(00:29) Shotgun #33 M.Anderson rush left for 2 yards gain to the CLT44 fumbled by #33 M.Anderson at CLT44 forced by #32 C.Simpson recovered by CLT #58 X.Miles at CLT44, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:4911% → 10%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
10.5%
(00:10) Shotgun #6 R.Gainey Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CLT48 (#0 S.Banks Jr.)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
10.6%
(15:00) Shotgun #6 R.Gainey Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the UTSA49 (#0 S.Banks Jr.)Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+8
10.8%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Cobb rush left for 8 yards gain to the UTSA41 (#7 J.Wyrick), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
11.0%
(13:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete short right to #5 J.Nicholas caught at UTSA45, for 6 yards to the UTSA35 (#15 T.Milton), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
11.3%
(13:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass incomplete short left to #8 S.Brown thrown to UTSA29 QB hurried by #19 J.Bowens IIISimilar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+2
10.1%
(13:08) Shotgun #24 J.Cobb rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTSA33 (#98 J.Buxton; #16 C.Bryson II)Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 2
OPP 33
0
9.8%
(12:24) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass incomplete short left to #7 E.Mason thrown to UTSA35 QB hurried by #2 O.Pewee, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:2494% → 99%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
6.0%
(12:21) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short left to #84 A.Wilson thrown to UTSA40 broken up by #4 G.ShipmanSimilar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
6.0%
(12:17) Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UTSA42 (#19 K.Schmitz)Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-1
5.4%
(11:38) #9 P.Overmyer rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UTSA41 (#44 B.Mullen) PENALTY CLT Personal Foul (#19 K.Schmitz) 15 yards from UTSA41 to CLT44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+32
4.9%
(11:17) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #0 H.Thomas caught at CLT25, for 32 yards to the CLT12 (#6 J.Conley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
4.6%
(10:41) Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CLT07 (#2 T.McGee)Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
1.2%
(09:56) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #8 D.Amador II caught at CLT00, for 7 yards to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:53, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UTSA Personal Foul (#73 D.Allen) 15 yards from CLT00 to CLT03 #92 M.Petro kick attempt good (H: #20 C.Hogan, LS: #91 I.Hatfield)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:4295% → 99%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
4.8%
(09:40) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #13 J.Hardy caught at UTSA33, for 8 yards to the UTSA43 (#13 G.Willis)Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
4.5%
(09:06) Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UTSA48 (#40 R.Williford; #9 C.Grant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
4.4%
(08:38) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #0 H.Thomas caught at UTSA50, for 10 yards to the CLT42 (#6 J.Conley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
4.3%
(08:00) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #8 D.Amador II caught at CLT28, for 14 yards to the CLT28 (#9 C.Grant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+25
3.9%
(07:16) Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush left for 25 yards gain to the CLT03 (#3 C.Gill), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
3.6%
(06:32) Shotgun #23 W.Henderson III rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CLT02 (#51 J.Solomon)Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.8%
(05:51) #2 O.McCown rush left for 2 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:46 #92 M.Petro kick attempt good (H: #20 C.Hogan, LS: #91 I.Hatfield)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21INT
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:181% → 1%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
1.0%
(05:35) Shotgun #1 Z.Wilcke pass complete short right to #8 S.Brown caught at CLT30, for 3 yards to the CLT31 (#16 C.Bryson II; #29 A.Rue)Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+4
1.0%
(05:15) Shotgun #1 Z.Wilcke rush left for 4 yards gain to the CLT35 (#16 C.Bryson II)Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+23
1.0%
(04:32) Shotgun #1 Z.Wilcke pass complete deep left to #14 A.Hopkins caught at UTSA42, for 23 yards to the UTSA42, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
1.1%
(04:13) Shotgun #1 Z.Wilcke pass complete short middle to #5 J.Nicholas caught at UTSA35, for 20 yards to the UTSA22 QB hurried by #33 N.Anyanwu (#15 T.Milton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
1.2%
(03:47) Shotgun #6 R.Gainey Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UTSA15 (#0 S.Banks Jr.)Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+15
1.2%
(03:15) Shotgun #1 Z.Wilcke pass incomplete short right thrown to UTSA00 PENALTY CLT Intentional Grounding (#1 Z.Wilcke)Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+2
1.1%
(03:07) Shotgun #6 R.Gainey Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTSA17 (#2 O.Pewee)Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 5
OPP 17
-50
1.0%
(02:30) Shotgun #1 Z.Wilcke pass intercepted by #15 T.Milton at UTSA00 #15 T.Milton return 50 yards to the UTSA50 (#81 B.Rhoads), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:3999% → 100%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
50
+7
0.6%
(02:15) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CLT43 (#13 G.Willis; #2 T.McGee)Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+1
0.4%
(02:00) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CLT42 (#97 J.Holley)Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+6
0.4%
(01:13) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CLT36 (#2 T.McGee; #32 C.Simpson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
0.4%
(00:29) Kneel down by #2 O.McCown at CLT37 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:17
(03:27) #23 W.Henderson III rush right for 59 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:17, 1ST DOWN #92 M.Petro kick attempt good (H: #20 C.Hogan, LS: #91 I.Hatfield)
-7.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:19
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Henry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UTSA50 (#13 G.Willis), 1ST DOWN
-4
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:17
(12:21) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short left to #84 A.Wilson thrown to UTSA40 broken up by #4 G.Shipman
-3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com