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NAVY

Navy 17 at North Texas 31

UNT
2025 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+3UNT 79.1%(00:04) #40 K.Nguma field goal attemptfrom 21 yards GOOD (H: #41 S.Evans,LS: #48 C.Yates), clock 00:03AWAY 10 - HOME 24 · Q2 0:03
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:03 · (00:04) #40 K.Nguma field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates), clock 00:03
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Home team on offense+14.9Pregame prior+6.9Score differential+5.2Garbage-time factor+3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:32: (03:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 3 yards gain to the USNA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:32 #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates) — UNT win probability +4.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:46: (05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush left for 14 yards gain to the NAVY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:46, 1ST DOWN #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates) — UNT win probability +6.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:59: (02:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Chatman rush right for 31 yards gain to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:59, 1ST DOWN #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) — NAVY win probability +8.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:03: (00:04) #40 K.Nguma field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates), clock 00:03 — UNT win probability +3.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:48: (09:51) No Huddle #11 B.Horvath rush left for 13 yards gain to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:48, 1ST DOWN #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) — NAVY win probability +11.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:03NAVY 4th & 21 at NAVY 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:02UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:14NAVY 4th & 5 at UNT 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−4.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:03UNT 4th & 3 at NAVY 3, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.7%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−6.0
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:48NAVY 4th & 3 at UNT 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%−0.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−6.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:48UNT 4th & 15 at NAVY 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:04UNT 4th & 1 at NAVY 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.7%−2.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−8.9
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:22NAVY 4th & 2 at UNT 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−0.5
    89% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−5.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:08UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:57UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:32UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:46UNT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:59NAVY Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:48NAVY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:5264% → 65%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
63.9%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UNT37 (#56 M.Parker; #18 P.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
63.9%
(14:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #10 W.Young caught at UNT34, for 4 yards to the UNT41 (#3 I.Oniha), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+6
63.9%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNT47 (#58 C.Cauley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
63.9%
(13:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USNA45 (#16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+14
64.0%
(13:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #18 T.Lewis caught at USNA41, for 14 yards to the USNA31 (#28 B.Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
64.1%
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USNA30 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+23
64.2%
(12:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to #10 W.Young caught at USNA17, for 23 yards to the USNA07 (#3 I.Oniha), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
65.1%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USNA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:57 #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 12 yds · 4:3735% → 33%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
64.8%
(11:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USNA26 (#6 T.Fields; #14 Q.Hammonds)Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+6
64.8%
(11:11) Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush left for 6 yards gain to the USNA32 (#6 T.Fields; #0 W.Jones II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
65.0%
(10:35) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short middle to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at USNA29, for 5 yards to the USNA37 (#2 D.Armstead)Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
64.9%
(09:55) #46 A.Tecza rush left for 4 yards gain to the USNA41 (#2 D.Armstead; #12 P.Smith-Young)Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
65.2%
(09:22) #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USNA44, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
65.2%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at USNA41, for 2 yards to the USNA46 (#7 S.Whitter)Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+10
65.3%
(08:25) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNT46, End Of Play PENALTY USNA Holding (#79 H.Smith II) 10 yards from USNA46 to USNA36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 18
OWN 36
-3
65.9%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #46 A.Tecza caught at USNA32, for 3 yards loss to the USNA33 (#2 D.Armstead)Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 21
OWN 33
0
66.4%
(07:17) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short left to #8 J.Gutierrez thrown to USNA44 broken up by #7 S.WhitterSimilar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 21
OWN 33
0
66.6%
(07:10) #11 J.Carlson punt 53 yards to the UNT14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 3:2166% → 72%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
66.2%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNT19 (#90 J.Moutome)Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+24
66.4%
(06:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to #22 L.Sides caught at UNT32, for 24 yards to the UNT43 (#56 M.Parker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
67.2%
(06:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #24 C.Hawkins caught at UNT42, for 5 yards to the UNT48 (#58 C.Cauley; #18 P.Hamilton)Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+32
67.4%
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 32 yards gain to the USNA20 (#18 P.Hamilton; #16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
67.7%
(05:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass incomplete short left to #6 T.Williams III thrown to USNA20 broken up by #90 J.MoutomeSimilar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
67.7%
(05:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #10 W.Young caught at USNA23, for 9 yards to the USNA11 (#28 B.Allen)Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+3
67.5%
(04:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USNA08 (#14 J.Campbell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
68.0%
(04:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 5 yards gain to the USNA03 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
68.3%
(03:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass incomplete short right to #4 C.Dorner thrown to USNA00 QB hurried by #91 C.LaFond and #58 C.CauleySimilar
Q1 3:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.4%
(03:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 3 yards gain to the USNA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:32 #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4FUMBLE
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:1829% → 29%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
71.0%
PENALTY UNT Offside (#8 R.Outland Jr.) 5 yards from USNA17 to USNA22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 5
OWN 22
+37
71.0%
(03:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush right for 37 yards gain to the UNT41 (#12 P.Smith-Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
70.8%
(02:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UNT45 (#44 B.Hayes, #40 K.Huddleston)Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+5
71.0%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush right for 5 yards gain to the UNT40 (#32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+12
71.2%
(01:35) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at UNT28, for 12 yards to the UNT28, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
70.5%
(00:54) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush left for 4 yards gain to the UNT24 (#93 T.Washington; #32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-1
70.8%
(00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush left for 1 yard loss to the UNT25 fumbled by #11 B.Horvath at UNT27 recovered by UNT #25 K.Lewis at UNT25, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:0474% → 74%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.0%
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #6 T.Williams III caught at UNT30, for 6 yards to the UNT31 (#14 J.Campbell; #18 P.Hamilton)Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-10
74.3%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UNT21 (#53 M.Bleazard)Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+5
73.8%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass incomplete deep left to #18 T.Lewis thrown to NAVY35 PENALTY NAVY Offside (#49 A.Klenk) 5 yards from UNT21 to UNT26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
74.0%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass incomplete short right to #4 C.Dorner thrown to UNT35 QB hurried by #49 A.KlenkSimilar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
73.7%
(14:07) #41 S.Evans punt 37 yards to the NAVY37 fair catch by #24 B.Chatman at NAVY37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 6:4327% → 28%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
72.8%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush right for 6 yards gain to the NAVY43 (#32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
72.6%
(13:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAVY45 (#32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+6
72.9%
(12:47) No Huddle #46 A.Tecza rush right for 6 yards gain to the UNT49 (#12 P.Smith-Young; #1 D.Fisher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
72.9%
(12:21) No Huddle #22 E.Heidenreich rush right for 4 yards gain to the UNT45, End Of Play. #7 S.Whitter injured on the playSimilar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
73.1%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNT43 (#6 T.Fields; #32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+5
73.4%
(11:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush right for 5 yards gain to the UNT38 (#6 T.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
73.5%
(10:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short right thrown to UNT32 QB hurried by #90 E.DaySimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
73.5%
(10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Chatman rush left for 3 yards gain to the UNT35 lateral to #24 B.Chatman for 11 yards gain to the UNT24 (#14 Q.Hammonds; #6 T.Fields), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Backwards pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
73.2%
(09:58) No Huddle #11 B.Horvath sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UNT30 (#44 B.Hayes) PENALTY UNT Holding (#2 D.Armstead) 10 yards from UNT24 to UNT14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
73.4%
(09:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush right for 2 yards loss to the UNT16 (#32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+6
74.1%
(08:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush left for 6 yards gain to the UNT10 (#32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+1
75.0%
(08:00) Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNT09 (#98 S.Clements; #32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q2 7:14
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
72.5%
(07:14) #17 N.Kirkwood field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry), clock 07:14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:0576% → 83%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
75.8%
(06:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 W.Young rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NAVY25 (#49 A.Klenk; #35 L.Pirris)Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+3
76.2%
(05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 3 yards gain to the NAVY22 (#35 L.Pirris)Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
75.6%
(05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAVY19 (#49 A.Klenk; #35 L.Pirris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
76.2%
(05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NAVY14 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
82.8%
(05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush left for 14 yards gain to the NAVY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:46, 1ST DOWN #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:3319% → 25%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
81.1%
(05:37) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush right for 11 yards gain to the NAVY50 (#1 D.Fisher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
50
+5
80.7%
(05:00) No Huddle #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNT45 (#14 Q.Hammonds)Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+5
80.9%
PENALTY NAVY False Start (#73 S.Crowley) 5 yards from UNT45 to UNT50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 10
50
+15
82.0%
(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #46 A.Tecza caught at UNT44, for 15 yards to the UNT35 (#0 W.Jones II; #12 P.Smith-Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
80.9%
(03:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Chatman rush right for 2 yards loss to the UNT37 (#6 T.Fields)Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+6
83.2%
(02:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNT31 (#6 T.Fields)Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+31
74.9%
(02:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Chatman rush right for 31 yards gain to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:59, 1ST DOWN #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9FG
15 plays · 75 yds · 1:4578% → 79%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
78.4%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 0 yards to the UNT22 (#13 A.Duhart)Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
78.5%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 10 yards gain to the UNT32 (#17 J.Ross), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
78.8%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 17 yards gain to the UNT49 (#18 P.Hamilton; #56 M.Parker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
79.9%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 0 yards to the UNT49 (#16 G.Sessi; #95 G.Willis)Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+33
79.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to #4 C.Dorner caught at NAVY33, for 33 yards to the NAVY18 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
79.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush right for 2 yards gain to the NAVY16 (#56 M.Parker; #58 C.Cauley). #34 J.Jones injured on the playSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+11
79.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #10 W.Young caught at NAVY16, for 11 yards to the NAVY05 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
79.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAVY03 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
79.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush middle for 0 yards to the NAVY03 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
76.2%
(00:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass incomplete short right to #1 M.Coleman thrown to NAVY00Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
79.1%
(00:04) #40 K.Nguma field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates), clock 00:03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:0318% → 29%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
81.6%
(14:58) No Huddle #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NAVY41 (#32 E.Wesloski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
81.3%
(14:20) Shotgun #24 B.Chatman rush left for 11 yards gain to the UNT48 (#90 E.Day), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+12
80.7%
(13:46) No Huddle #22 E.Heidenreich rush right for 12 yards gain to the UNT40 (), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
80.6%
No Huddle #22 E.Heidenreich rush left for 8 yards gain to the UNT40 (#32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+20
80.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush right for 20 yards gain to the UNT20 (#6 T.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
79.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush right for 6 yards gain to the UNT14 (#6 T.Fields)Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+5
79.4%
PENALTY NAVY False Start (#79 H.Smith II) 5 yards from UNT14 to UNT19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
80.5%
PENALTY NAVY Delay Of Game 5 yards from UNT19 to UNT24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 14
OPP 24
+5
81.6%
(11:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNT19 (#93 T.Washington; #32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+6
82.3%
(10:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush right for 6 yards gain to the UNT13 (#1 D.Fisher; #8 R.Outland Jr.)Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+13
71.4%
(09:51) No Huddle #11 B.Horvath rush left for 13 yards gain to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:48, 1ST DOWN #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:5476% → 76%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.8%
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNT28 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+39
75.9%
(09:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete deep right to #4 C.Dorner caught at NAVY36, for 39 yards to the NAVY33 (#28 B.Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
78.7%
(08:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #22 L.Sides caught at NAVY32, for 1 yard to the NAVY32 (#35 L.Pirris)Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-4
78.8%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker sacked for loss of 4 yards to the NAVY36 (#95 G.Willis)Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 13
OPP 36
-2
78.0%
(07:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #24 C.Hawkins caught at NAVY41, for 2 yards loss to the NAVY38 (#58 C.Cauley; #95 G.Willis)Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 15
OPP 38
0
76.3%
(06:54) #41 S.Evans punt 38 yards to the NAVY00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:4326% → 24%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
73.8%
(06:45) Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush left for 17 yards gain to the NAVY37 (#12 P.Smith-Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
72.8%
(06:07) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush right for 1 yard gain to the NAVY38 (#6 T.Fields)Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
72.9%
(05:32) PENALTY NAVY False Start (#24 B.Chatman) 5 yards from NAVY38 to NAVY33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
74.5%
(05:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short left to #22 E.Heidenreich thrown to NAVY44Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
76.2%
(05:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass intercepted by #14 Q.Hammonds at NAVY50, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:0280% → 93%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
50
+6
80.4%
(04:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #24 C.Hawkins caught at UNT44, for 6 yards to the NAVY44 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-1
80.6%
(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 1 yard loss to the NAVY45 (#49 A.Klenk; #56 M.Parker)Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+9
80.0%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NAVY36 (#95 G.Willis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
81.0%
(03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #10 W.Young caught at NAVY33, for 5 yards to the NAVY31 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
81.4%
(03:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NAVY27 (#16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
80.4%
(02:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 0 yards to the NAVY27 (#16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
80.5%
(02:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #1 M.Coleman caught at NAVY25, for 2 yards to the NAVY25, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
82.9%
(01:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass incomplete deep middle to #1 M.Coleman thrown to NAVY05 broken up by #16 G.Sessi QB hurried by #58 C.Cauley PENALTY UNT Holding (#67 B.Nelson) 10 yards from NAVY25 to NAVY35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+10
82.3%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 10 yards gain to the NAVY25 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+19
93.2%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #22 L.Sides caught at NAVY06, for 19 yards to the NAVY06 (#18 P.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
93.3%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 6 yards gain to the NAVY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:46 #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15DOWNS
15 plays · 67 yds · 5:1011% → 10%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.4%
(00:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at NAVY34, for 8 yards to the NAVY33 (#12 P.Smith-Young)Similar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
89.4%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush left for 1 yard gain to the NAVY34 (#32 E.Wesloski; #6 T.Fields)Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
89.7%
(14:58) No Huddle #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAVY37 (#98 S.Clements), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
89.9%
(14:24) Shotgun #24 B.Chatman rush right for 9 yards gain to the NAVY46 (#0 W.Jones II). #73 S.Crowley injured on the playSimilar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+8
89.1%
(14:09) No Huddle #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNT46 (#32 E.Wesloski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
89.7%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 16 yards gain to the UNT30 (#2 D.Armstead), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
89.0%
(12:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNT27 (#1 D.Fisher)Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+10
88.8%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush left for 10 yards gain to the UNT17, out of bounds at UNT17, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was not down by contact". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
89.1%
(11:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short right to #24 B.Chatman thrown to UNT14Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
89.2%
(11:49) No Huddle #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNT13 (#32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+4
89.9%
(11:10) Shotgun #24 B.Chatman rush right for 4 yards gain to the UNT09 (#6 T.Fields)Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+1
90.4%
(10:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNT08 (#44 B.Hayes; #90 E.Day), TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 5:0794% → 96%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
94.3%
(10:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNT12 (#35 L.Pirris)Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+5
95.0%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush left for 5 yards gain to the UNT17 (#90 J.Moutome; #56 M.Parker)Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
95.1%
(09:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNT19 (#96 L.Robinson; #16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
95.3%
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNT21 (#96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+3
95.5%
(08:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #6 T.Williams III caught at UNT24, for 3 yards to the UNT24 (#16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+6
95.8%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #4 C.Dorner caught at UNT29, for 6 yards to the UNT30 (#18 P.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
96.1%
(06:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNT31 (#96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-3
96.4%
(05:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 3 yards loss to the UNT28 (#96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
96.4%
(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass incomplete short left to #1 M.Coleman thrown to UNT41Similar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
96.2%
(05:12) #41 S.Evans punt 30 yards to the NAVY42, out of bounds at NAVY42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17INT
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:397% → 7%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+29
93.1%
(05:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete deep middle to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at UNT32, for 29 yards to the UNT29 (#12 P.Smith-Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
92.1%
(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short right to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at UNT17, for 12 yards to the UNT17 (#14 Q.Hammonds), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
93.5%
(04:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass intercepted by #14 Q.Hammonds at UNT00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18END OF GAME
15 plays · 48 yds · 3:3297% → 99%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
96.9%
(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush left for 7 yards gain to the UNT27 (#95 G.Willis)Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
97.3%
PENALTY NAVY Offside (#95 G.Willis) 5 yards from UNT27 to UNT32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
97.6%
(03:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 6 yards gain to the UNT38 (#18 P.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-2
98.1%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UNT36 (#35 L.Pirris; #0 K.McShan)Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+26
98.4%
(03:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #6 T.Williams III caught at NAVY48, for 26 yards to the NAVY38 (#16 G.Sessi; #18 P.Hamilton), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NAVY Offside declinedSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
98.5%
(02:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush right for 3 yards gain to the NAVY35 (#96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+10
98.5%
(02:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 10 yards gain to the NAVY25, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
98.8%
(01:56) Kneel down by #17 D.Mestemaker at NAVY28 for loss of 3 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 13
OPP 28
-3
98.8%
(01:16) Kneel down by #17 D.Mestemaker at NAVY31 for loss of 3 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 16
OPP 31
-1
98.8%
(00:36) Kneel down by #17 D.Mestemaker at NAVY32 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:48
(09:51) No Huddle #11 B.Horvath rush left for 13 yards gain to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:48, 1ST DOWN #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)
-11
TD · Q2 1:59
(02:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Chatman rush right for 31 yards gain to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:59, 1ST DOWN #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)
-8.4
TD · Q2 5:46
(05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush left for 14 yards gain to the NAVY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:46, 1ST DOWN #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com