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UTSA

UTSA 17 at North Texas 55

UNT
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:12 · Caile Hogan punt for 60 yds , Landon Sides returns for 9 yds to the UNT 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginPregame prior
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Home team on offense+2.0Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin+0.5Pregame prior+2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 11 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +9.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 5:22: Robert Henry Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK) — UTSA win probability +9.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:09: Kiefer Sibley run for 18 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +7.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:30: Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 15 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +12.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:58: Drew Mestemaker run for 1 yd for a TD UTSA Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Shad Banks Jr.) declined (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +7.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UTSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 7:31UNT 4th & 10 at UTSA 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−1.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:56UTSA 4th & 12 at UTSA 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:11UNT 4th & 3 at UTSA 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    59.5%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:42UTSA 4th & 11 at UTSA 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:50UTSA 4th & 22 at UTSA 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:36UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:52UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:52UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:12UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:43UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.3%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:28UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 33, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:57UTSA 4th & 12 at UNT 12, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:24UNT 4th & 1 at UTSA 1, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:13UTSA 4th & 8 at UNT 36, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:01UNT 4th & 3 at UTSA 37, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:51UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 30, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:51UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 30, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:30UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:11UNT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00UNT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:22UTSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:09UNT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:30UNT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:58UNT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:55UNT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:01UNT Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3046% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+72
53.8%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 72 yds to the UNT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
53.8%
Robert Henry Jr. run for no gain to the UNT 3Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2FG
17 plays · 63 yds · 5:5354% → 53%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
53.5%
Caleb Hawkins run for 1 yd to the UNT 28Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+6
53.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 6 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+3
53.5%
Caleb Hawkins run for 3 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
53.0%
Caleb Hawkins run for 4 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+8
53.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 8 yds to the UNT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
53.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 4 yds to the UTSA 47Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
53.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+10
53.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mestemaker,Drew pass intercepted by Milton,Tyan at UTSA30 PENALTY UTSA Holding (Wyrick,Jimmy) 10 yards from UTSA47 to UTSA37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
53.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt YoungSimilar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+20
53.1%
Caleb Hawkins run for 20 yds to the UTSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
53.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 10 yds to the UTSA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
52.8%
Caleb Hawkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTSA 12Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
52.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Tre Williams IIISimilar
Q1 8:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
52.3%
Makenzie McGill II run for 2 yds to the UTSA 10Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
53.4%
Kali Nguma 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3547% → 46%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
53.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to AJ Wilson for 7 yds to the UTSA 32Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-10
52.7%
Shotgun Henderson III,Will rush left for 5 yards gain to the UTSA37 (Fields,Trey) PENALTY UTSA Illegal Block in Back (Wilson,AJ) 10 yards from UTSA32 to UTSA22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
53.2%
Will Henderson III run for 1 yd to the UTSA 23Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
53.4%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to AJ WilsonSimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+4
53.7%
Caile Hogan punt for 50 yds , Landon Sides returns for 4 yds to the UNT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 2:4553% → 57%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
52.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 13 yds to the UNT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
53.8%
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 4
50
+23
53.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 13 yds to the UTSA 37 for a 1ST down UTSA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jameian Buxton) to the UTSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
54.1%
PENALTY UNT False Start (Dickson III,Johnny) 5 yards from UTSA27 to UTSA32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+7
52.2%
Caleb Hawkins run for 7 yds to the UTSA 25Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
52.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt YoungSimilar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+5
52.0%
Kiefer Sibley run for 5 yds to the UTSA 20Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+20
56.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 20 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:2944% → 43%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
56.4%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Jones,Darrell) 5 yards from UTSA25 to UTSA20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
56.5%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 6 yds to the UTSA 26Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
56.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 2 yds to the UTSA 24Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
57.0%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to DJ Allen Jr.Similar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
57.4%
Caile Hogan punt for 48 yds , Landon Sides returns for no gain to the UNT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:4257% → 68%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
56.6%
Caleb Hawkins run for 12 yds to the UNT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
57.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 14 yds to the UTSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
58.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 19 yds to the UTSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
58.2%
Makenzie McGill II run for 17 yds to the UTSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
68.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 11 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7PUNT
18 plays · 35 yds · 7:0638% → 31%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
62.4%
Robert Henry Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 7Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+9
62.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 9 yds to the UTSA 16Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+7
62.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 7 yds to the UTSA 23 for a 1ST down North Texas Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
61.9%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Devin McCuinSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
62.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 9 yds to the UTSA 32Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+1
61.5%
Patrick Overmyer run for 1 yd to the UTSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
61.4%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 3 yds to the UTSA 36Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
61.3%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 5 yds to the UTSA 41Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+6
60.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 6 yds to the UTSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
60.8%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Patrick OvermyerSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+12
61.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 12 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
60.4%
David Amador II run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 43Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 12
OPP 43
0
60.8%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to AJ WilsonSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 12
OPP 43
-10
61.2%
UTSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 19
50
+5
67.8%
(08:50) Shotgun McCown,Owen pass incomplete short left to Amador II,David thrown to UNT35 PENALTY UNT Offside (Hayes,Briceon) 5 yards from UNT50 to UNT45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 14
OPP 45
-8
67.7%
Owen McCown sacked by Ethan Day for a loss of 8 yards to the UTSA 47Similar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 22
OWN 47
+23
69.1%
Caile Hogan punt for 49 yds , Landon Sides returns for 23 yds to the UNT 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1471% → 72%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
71.3%
Caleb Hawkins run for 4 yds to the UNT 9Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+9
70.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 9 yds to the UNT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
72.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Tre Williams IIISimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
71.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt YoungSimilar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
71.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Cameron DornerSimilar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
71.6%
Sawyer Evans punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:1432% → 43%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
50
+29
67.7%
Will Henderson III run for 29 yds to the UNT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
66.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 18 yds to the UNT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
56.9%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:3062% → 61%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.2%
Makenzie McGill II run for 4 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
62.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt YoungSimilar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-15
61.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mestemaker,Drew pass complete short left to Young,Wyatt caught at UNT30, for 7 yards to the UNT36 (Wilkerson,Marcellus) PENALTY UNT Pass Interference (Sides,Landon) 15 yards from UNT29 to UNT14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+11
61.2%
Makenzie McGill II run for 11 yds to the UNT 25Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
60.7%
Sawyer Evans punt for 42 yds , David Amador II returns for no gain to the UTSA 31Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
60.7%
Sawyer Evans punt for 42 yds , David Amador II returns for no gain to the UTSA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4038% → 36%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
62.2%
Robert Henry Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 19Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+6
62.8%
Owen McCown run for 6 yds to the UTSA 25Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
63.0%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Devin McCuinSimilar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+9
64.4%
Caile Hogan punt for 60 yds , Landon Sides returns for 9 yds to the UNT 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 2:0363% → 75%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
63.0%
Drew Mestemaker run for 8 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+1
64.0%
Caleb Hawkins run for 1 yd to the UNT 33Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
62.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt YoungSimilar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+2
62.1%
Caleb Hawkins run for 2 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Caleb HawkinsSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
63.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 2 yds to the UNT 33Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+37
62.2%
Caleb Hawkins run for 37 yds to the UTSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
67.1%
Kiefer Sibley run for 1 yd to the UTSA 29Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+4
67.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 4 yds to the UTSA 25Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+7
66.2%
Caleb Hawkins run for 7 yds to the UTSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
67.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
67.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Cameron DornerSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
75.1%
Kiefer Sibley run for 18 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
77.3%
O. McCown takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3072% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
72.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 12 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
73.1%
Caleb Hawkins run for 2 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
73.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 3 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+5
72.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 5 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
73.8%
Kiefer Sibley run for 5 yds to the UTSA 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+17
74.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 17 yds to the UTSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
74.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 16 yds to the UTSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
86.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 15 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
85.4%
Owen McCown sacked by Briceon Hayes for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 19 Owen McCown fumbled, recovered by UNT Trey Fields , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:2187% → 94%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
86.7%
Caleb Hawkins run for 11 yds to the UTSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
86.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 7 yds to the UTSA 1Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.1%
Drew Mestemaker run for 1 yd for a TD UTSA Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Shad Banks Jr.) declined (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:216% → 6%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
93.9%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 41 yds to the UNT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
93.0%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 6 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-5
92.7%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Jones,Darrell) 5 yards from UNT28 to UNT33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+5
93.6%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNT 28 Robert Henry Jr. fumbled, recovered by UNT Patrick Smith-YoungSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+5
93.6%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNT 28 Robert Henry Jr. fumbled, recovered by UNT Patrick Smith-YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0994% → 94%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
94.4%
Caleb Hawkins run for 4 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
94.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Tre Williams IIISimilar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+1
94.5%
Drew Mestemaker run for 1 yd to the UNT 33Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
94.3%
Sawyer Evans punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 4:315% → 4%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
94.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to AJ Wilson for 7 yds to the UTSA 33Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+8
94.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to AJ Wilson for 8 yds to the UTSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
94.5%
Will Henderson III run for 2 yds to the UTSA 43Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+15
94.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun McCown,Owen pass incomplete deep right to Wilson,AJ thrown to UNT20 PENALTY UNT Pass Interference (Lewis,Kollin) 15 yards from UTSA43 to UNT42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
94.5%
Owen McCown sacked by Joshua Pierce for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 46 Owen McCown fumbled, recovered by UTSA Owen McCown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+26
94.6%
Will Henderson III run for 26 yds to the UNT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
93.8%
Will Henderson III run for 7 yds to the UNT 13Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 3
OPP 13
0
93.8%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Jamel Hardy Jr.Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+5
94.3%
Owen McCown run for 5 yds to the UNT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
93.8%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNT 7Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.8%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Patrick OvermyerSimilar
Q3 3:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
95.7%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Henry,Robert) 5 yards from UNT07 to UNT12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
96.0%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Houston ThomasSimilar
Q3 2:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
95.6%
Michael Petro 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:5897% → 100%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
96.9%
Caleb Hawkins run for 16 yds to the UNT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
97.1%
Drew Mestemaker sacked by Nnanna Anyanwu for a loss of 9 yards to the UNT 27Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 19
OWN 27
+31
96.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 31 yds to the UTSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
99.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 42 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
Q3 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
99.6%
PENALTY UNT Delay Of Game 5 yards from UTSA03 to UTSA08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
99.7%
Owen McCown run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTSA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22FG
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.6%
Drew Mestemaker run for 5 yds to the UTSA 9Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+7
99.6%
Caleb Hawkins run for 7 yds to the UTSA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Tre Williams IIISimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.6%
Caleb Hawkins run for no gain to the UTSA 2Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.6%
Drew Mestemaker run for 1 yd to the UTSA 1Similar
Q4 13:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
99.7%
Kali Nguma 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 4:110% → 0%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Brandon Tennison pass complete to Jamel Hardy Jr. for 6 yds to the UTSA 31Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
99.7%
Brandon Tennison pass complete to AJ Wilson for 13 yds to the UTSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.7%
Brandon Tennison run for 5 yds to the UTSA 49Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+13
99.7%
A'Marion Peterson run for 13 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
99.7%
A'Marion Peterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 40Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-3
99.7%
Brandon Tennison sacked by Keviyan Huddleston for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 43Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+7
99.8%
A'Marion Peterson run for 7 yds to the UNT 36Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+7
99.9%
Brandon Tennison pass complete to Elliott Brow for 7 yds to the UNT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+27
99.8%
Kiefer Sibley run for 27 yds to the UTSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.8%
Kiefer Sibley run for 4 yds to the UTSA 40Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
99.8%
Kiefer Sibley run for 2 yds to the UTSA 38Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+1
99.8%
Kiefer Sibley run for 1 yd to the UTSA 37Similar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+37
99.9%
Chris Jimerson Jr. pass complete to Terrence Lewis for 37 yds for a TD UTSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shad Banks Jr.) declined (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Bryson Donnell run for no gain to the UTSA 25Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Brandon Tennison pass complete to Mekhi Anderson for 5 yds to the UTSA 30Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Brandon Tennison pass incomplete to Jaelen SmithSimilar
Q4 4:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Caile Hogan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Landon Sides at the UNT 24Similar
Q4 4:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Caile Hogan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Landon Sides at the UNT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 22 yds · 4:51100% → 100%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
99.9%
Ashton Gray run for 8 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Ashton Gray run for 4 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Ashton Gray run for 2 yds to the UNT 43Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-5
99.9%
PENALTY UNT False Start (King,Shandon) 5 yards from UNT43 to UNT38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+18
99.9%
Ashton Gray run for 18 yds to the UTSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
100.0%
Tom von Grote run for 2 yds to the UTSA 42Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-5
100.0%
T. von Grote takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 47
-2
100.0%
T. von Grote takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:30
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 15 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q1 0:00
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 11 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q2 5:22
Robert Henry Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)
-9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com