UTSA
UTSA 17 at North Texas 55
UNT2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · DATCU Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · T. von Grote takes a knee
01
UNT has the ball
+26
02
UNT leading by 38
+8
03
Blowout context favors the offense
+2
04
Market gave UNT a 61% pregame chance
+0
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
UTSA · Drive 1TD · 4 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 15:00
Robert Henry Jr. run for 72 yds to the UNT 3 for a 1ST down
-2.2
Q1 15:00
Robert Henry Jr. run for no gain to the UNT 3
-3.0
Q1 13:30
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)
-15.4
UNT · Drive 2FG · 17 plays · 63 yds
Q1 13:24
Jaffer Murphy kickoff for 58 yds , Simeon Evans return for 20 yds to the UNT 27
+1.8
Q1 13:24
Caleb Hawkins run for 1 yd to the UNT 28
+3.8
Q1 13:24
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 6 yds to the UNT 34
0.0
Q1 13:24
Caleb Hawkins run for 3 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 11:30
Caleb Hawkins run for 4 yds to the UNT 41
-1.3
Q1 11:30
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 8 yds to the UNT 49 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q1 10:44
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 4 yds to the UTSA 47
+0.7
Q1 10:44
Timeout North Texas, clock 10:44
+0.2
Q1 10:44
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 10:44
No Huddle-Shotgun Mestemaker,Drew pass intercepted by Milton,Tyan at UTSA30 PENALTY UTSA Holding (Wyrick,Jimmy) 10 yards from UTSA47 to UTSA37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-0.3
Q1 10:44
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt Young
+1.3
Q1 10:44
Caleb Hawkins run for 20 yds to the UTSA 17 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:44
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 10 yds to the UTSA 7 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 8:42
Caleb Hawkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTSA 12
-0.2
Q1 8:16
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Tre Williams III
+0.3
Q1 8:16
Makenzie McGill II run for 2 yds to the UTSA 10
-0.3
Q1 7:31
Kali Nguma 28 yd FG GOOD
+8.8
UTSA · Drive 3PUNT · 6 plays · -2 yds
Q1 7:31
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-2.2
Q1 7:31
Owen McCown pass complete to AJ Wilson for 7 yds to the UTSA 32
-5.9
Q1 7:31
Shotgun Henderson III,Will rush left for 5 yards gain to the UTSA37 (Fields,Trey) PENALTY UTSA Illegal Block in Back (Wilson,AJ) 10 yards from UTSA32 to UTSA22. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q1 7:31
Will Henderson III run for 1 yd to the UTSA 23
0.0
Q1 7:31
Owen McCown pass incomplete to AJ Wilson
0.0
Q1 5:56
Caile Hogan punt for 50 yds , Landon Sides returns for 4 yds to the UNT 31
-0.4
UNT · Drive 4TD · 11 plays · 69 yds
Q1 5:56
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 13 yds to the UNT 44 for a 1ST down
+5.9
Q1 5:56
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line
+0.7
Q1 5:19
Timeout North Texas, clock 05:19
+1.7
Q1 5:19
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 13 yds to the UTSA 37 for a 1ST down UTSA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jameian Buxton) to the UTSA 27 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 5:19
PENALTY UNT False Start (Dickson III,Johnny) 5 yards from UTSA27 to UTSA32. NO PLAY.
+1.9
Q1 4:15
Timeout North Texas, clock 04:15
-0.2
Q1 4:15
Caleb Hawkins run for 7 yds to the UTSA 25
0.0
Q1 4:15
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt Young
0.0
Q1 4:15
Kiefer Sibley run for 5 yds to the UTSA 20
-0.2
Q1 3:16
Timeout UTSA, clock 03:16
-1.1
Q1 3:11
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 20 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+11.3
UTSA · Drive 5PUNT · 6 plays · -1 yds
Q1 3:11
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.5
Q1 3:11
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Jones,Darrell) 5 yards from UTSA25 to UTSA20. NO PLAY.
-4.2
Q1 3:11
Robert Henry Jr. run for 6 yds to the UTSA 26
0.0
Q1 3:11
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 2 yds to the UTSA 24
0.0
Q1 3:11
Owen McCown pass incomplete to DJ Allen Jr.
0.0
Q1 1:42
Caile Hogan punt for 48 yds , Landon Sides returns for no gain to the UNT 27
-0.7
UNT · Drive 6TD · 6 plays · 73 yds
Q1 1:42
Caleb Hawkins run for 12 yds to the UNT 39 for a 1ST down
+3.6
Q1 1:42
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 14 yds to the UTSA 47 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q1 1:42
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 19 yds to the UTSA 28 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q1 1:42
Makenzie McGill II run for 17 yds to the UTSA 11 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 0:00
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 11 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+12.8
Q2 14:56
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds , Will Henderson III return for 17 yds to the UTSA 48 UTSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (9 Yards) to the UTSA 9
-14.2
UTSA · Drive 7PUNT · 18 plays · 35 yds
Q2 14:56
Robert Henry Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 7
+10.5
Q2 14:56
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 9 yds to the UTSA 16
0.0
Q2 14:56
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 7 yds to the UTSA 23 for a 1ST down North Texas Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 14:56
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Devin McCuin
0.0
Q2 14:56
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 9 yds to the UTSA 32
0.0
Q2 14:56
Patrick Overmyer run for 1 yd to the UTSA 33 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 14:56
Robert Henry Jr. run for 3 yds to the UTSA 36
0.0
Q2 14:56
Robert Henry Jr. run for 5 yds to the UTSA 41
0.0
Q2 14:56
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 6 yds to the UTSA 47 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q2 14:56
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Patrick Overmyer
-0.4
Q2 14:56
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 12 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 14:56
David Amador II run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 43
-0.7
Q2 14:56
Owen McCown pass incomplete to AJ Wilson
0.0
Q2 14:56
UTSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q2 8:50
Timeout UTSA, clock 08:50
+0.9
Q2 8:50
(08:50) Shotgun McCown,Owen pass incomplete short left to Amador II,David thrown to UNT35 PENALTY UNT Offside (Hayes,Briceon) 5 yards from UNT50 to UNT45. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 8:50
Owen McCown sacked by Ethan Day for a loss of 8 yards to the UTSA 47
-0.2
Q2 7:50
Caile Hogan punt for 49 yds , Landon Sides returns for 23 yds to the UNT 5
+3.9
UNT · Drive 8PUNT · 6 plays · 13 yds
Q2 7:50
Caleb Hawkins run for 4 yds to the UNT 9
+1.5
Q2 7:50
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 9 yds to the UNT 18 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 7:50
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Tre Williams III
0.0
Q2 7:50
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt Young
0.0
Q2 7:50
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Cameron Dorner
0.0
Q2 6:36
Sawyer Evans punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line
-0.4
UTSA · Drive 9TD · 4 plays · 50 yds
Q2 6:36
Timeout North Texas, clock 06:36
-2.4
Q2 6:36
Will Henderson III run for 29 yds to the UNT 21 for a 1ST down
+0.9
Q2 6:36
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 18 yds to the UNT 3 for a 1ST down
-0.9
Q2 5:22
Robert Henry Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)
-15.2
UNT · Drive 10PUNT · 7 plays · 0 yds
Q2 5:22
Jaffer Murphy kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.8
Q2 5:22
Makenzie McGill II run for 4 yds to the UNT 29
-3.0
Q2 5:22
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt Young
0.0
Q2 5:22
No Huddle-Shotgun Mestemaker,Drew pass complete short left to Young,Wyatt caught at UNT30, for 7 yards to the UNT36 (Wilkerson,Marcellus) PENALTY UNT Pass Interference (Sides,Landon) 15 yards from UNT29 to UNT14. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 5:22
Makenzie McGill II run for 11 yds to the UNT 25
0.0
Q2 3:52
Sawyer Evans punt for 42 yds , David Amador II returns for no gain to the UTSA 31
-0.5
Q2 3:52
Sawyer Evans punt for 42 yds , David Amador II returns for no gain to the UTSA 21
0.0
UTSA · Drive 11PUNT · 4 plays · 4 yds
Q2 3:52
Robert Henry Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 19
+3.6
Q2 3:52
Owen McCown run for 6 yds to the UTSA 25
0.0
Q2 3:52
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Devin McCuin
0.0
Q2 2:12
Caile Hogan punt for 60 yds , Landon Sides returns for 9 yds to the UNT 24
0.0
UNT · Drive 12TD · 16 plays · 76 yds
Q2 2:12
Drew Mestemaker run for 8 yds to the UNT 32
-3.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout North Texas, clock 02:00
-0.1
Q2 2:00
Caleb Hawkins run for 1 yd to the UNT 33
0.0
Q2 2:00
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt Young
0.0
Q2 1:43
Timeout North Texas, clock 01:43
+0.2
Q2 1:43
Caleb Hawkins run for 2 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:43
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Caleb Hawkins
+0.6
Q2 1:43
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 2 yds to the UNT 33
0.0
Q2 1:43
Caleb Hawkins run for 37 yds to the UTSA 30 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:43
Kiefer Sibley run for 1 yd to the UTSA 29
+1.4
Q2 0:34
Timeout North Texas, clock 00:34
-1.0
Q2 0:34
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 4 yds to the UTSA 25
0.0
Q2 0:34
Caleb Hawkins run for 7 yds to the UTSA 18 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 0:34
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete
+0.2
Q2 0:34
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Cameron Dorner
0.0
Q2 0:09
Kiefer Sibley run for 18 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+17.9
UTSA · Drive 13END OF HALF · 2 plays · -2 yds
Q2 0:02
Kali Nguma kickoff for 56 yds , Mekhi Anderson return for 20 yds to the UTSA 29
0.0
Q2 0:00
O. McCown takes a knee
-0.3
UNT · Drive 14TD · 9 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Jaffer Murphy kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.3
Q3 15:00
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 12 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST down
+2.0
Q3 15:00
Caleb Hawkins run for 2 yds to the UNT 39
0.0
Q3 15:00
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 3 yds to the UNT 42
+0.1
Q3 15:00
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 5 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q3 15:00
Kiefer Sibley run for 5 yds to the UTSA 48
+0.1
Q3 15:00
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 17 yds to the UTSA 31 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 15:00
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 16 yds to the UTSA 15 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q3 11:30
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 15 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+6.7
UTSA · Drive 15FUMBLE · 2 plays · -2 yds
Q3 11:25
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds , Mekhi Anderson return for 21 yds to the UTSA 21
-0.1
Q3 11:19
Owen McCown sacked by Briceon Hayes for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 19 Owen McCown fumbled, recovered by UNT Trey Fields , return for 0 yards
-1.1
UNT · Drive 16TD · 3 plays · 19 yds
Q3 11:19
Caleb Hawkins run for 11 yds to the UTSA 8 for a 1ST down
+1.2
Q3 11:19
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 7 yds to the UTSA 1
0.0
Q3 9:58
Drew Mestemaker run for 1 yd for a TD UTSA Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Shad Banks Jr.) declined (Kali Nguma KICK)
+3.9
UTSA · Drive 17FUMBLE · 6 plays · 47 yds
Q3 9:58
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q3 9:58
Robert Henry Jr. run for 41 yds to the UNT 34 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q3 9:58
Robert Henry Jr. run for 6 yds to the UNT 28
-0.1
Q3 9:58
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Jones,Darrell) 5 yards from UNT28 to UNT33. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 8:37
Robert Henry Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNT 28 Robert Henry Jr. fumbled, recovered by UNT Patrick Smith-Young
0.0
Q3 8:37
Robert Henry Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNT 28 Robert Henry Jr. fumbled, recovered by UNT Patrick Smith-Young
0.0
UNT · Drive 18PUNT · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q3 8:37
Caleb Hawkins run for 4 yds to the UNT 32
+0.5
Q3 8:37
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Tre Williams III
0.0
Q3 8:37
Drew Mestemaker run for 1 yd to the UNT 33
0.0
Q3 7:28
Sawyer Evans punt for 41 yds
0.0
UTSA · Drive 19FG · 15 plays · 62 yds
Q3 7:28
Owen McCown pass complete to AJ Wilson for 7 yds to the UTSA 33
-0.3
Q3 7:28
Owen McCown pass complete to AJ Wilson for 8 yds to the UTSA 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 7:28
Will Henderson III run for 2 yds to the UTSA 43
0.0
Q3 7:28
No Huddle-Shotgun McCown,Owen pass incomplete deep right to Wilson,AJ thrown to UNT20 PENALTY UNT Pass Interference (Lewis,Kollin) 15 yards from UTSA43 to UNT42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 7:28
Owen McCown sacked by Joshua Pierce for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 46 Owen McCown fumbled, recovered by UTSA Owen McCown , return for 0 yards
-0.1
Q3 7:28
Will Henderson III run for 26 yds to the UNT 20 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q3 7:28
Will Henderson III run for 7 yds to the UNT 13
-0.1
Q3 7:28
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Jamel Hardy Jr.
0.0
Q3 7:28
Owen McCown run for 5 yds to the UNT 8 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 7:28
Robert Henry Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNT 7
0.0
Q3 7:28
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Patrick Overmyer
0.0
Q3 3:07
Timeout North Texas, clock 03:07
-0.2
Q3 3:07
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Henry,Robert) 5 yards from UNT07 to UNT12. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 3:07
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Houston Thomas
0.0
Q3 2:57
Michael Petro 29 yd FG GOOD
0.0
UNT · Drive 20TD · 6 plays · 80 yds
Q3 2:53
Jaffer Murphy kickoff for 45 yds , Victor Aderungboye return for no gain to the UNT 20
+0.1
Q3 2:53
Caleb Hawkins run for 16 yds to the UNT 36 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q3 2:53
Drew Mestemaker sacked by Nnanna Anyanwu for a loss of 9 yards to the UNT 27
0.0
Q3 2:53
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 31 yds to the UTSA 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 0:55
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 42 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+2.3
Q3 0:55
PENALTY UNT Delay Of Game 5 yards from UTSA03 to UTSA08. NO PLAY.
-1.9
UTSA · Drive 21FUMBLE · 2 plays · -3 yds
Q3 0:52
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds , Mekhi Anderson return for 17 yds to the UTSA 17
+1.9
Q3 0:45
Owen McCown run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTSA 14
-1.4
UNT · Drive 22FG · 6 plays · 13 yds
Q3 0:45
Drew Mestemaker run for 5 yds to the UTSA 9
+1.4
Q3 0:00
Caleb Hawkins run for 7 yds to the UTSA 2 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 15:00
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Tre Williams III
0.0
Q4 15:00
Caleb Hawkins run for no gain to the UTSA 2
0.0
Q4 15:00
Drew Mestemaker run for 1 yd to the UTSA 1
0.0
Q4 13:24
Kali Nguma 19 yd FG GOOD
-0.1
UTSA · Drive 23DOWNS · 9 plays · 46 yds
Q4 13:24
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q4 13:24
Brandon Tennison pass complete to Jamel Hardy Jr. for 6 yds to the UTSA 31
-1.0
Q4 13:24
Brandon Tennison pass complete to AJ Wilson for 13 yds to the UTSA 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 13:24
Brandon Tennison run for 5 yds to the UTSA 49
0.0
Q4 13:24
A'Marion Peterson run for 13 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 13:24
A'Marion Peterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 40
-0.1
Q4 13:24
Brandon Tennison sacked by Keviyan Huddleston for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 43
0.0
Q4 13:24
A'Marion Peterson run for 7 yds to the UNT 36
0.0
Q4 9:13
Brandon Tennison pass complete to Elliott Brow for 7 yds to the UNT 29
-0.2
UNT · Drive 24TD · 5 plays · 71 yds
Q4 9:13
Kiefer Sibley run for 27 yds to the UTSA 44 for a 1ST down
+1.3
Q4 9:13
Kiefer Sibley run for 4 yds to the UTSA 40
0.0
Q4 9:13
Kiefer Sibley run for 2 yds to the UTSA 38
0.0
Q4 9:13
Kiefer Sibley run for 1 yd to the UTSA 37
0.0
Q4 6:01
Chris Jimerson Jr. pass complete to Terrence Lewis for 37 yds for a TD UTSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shad Banks Jr.) declined (Kali Nguma KICK)
+0.9
UTSA · Drive 25PUNT · 6 plays · 5 yds
Q4 6:01
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q4 6:01
Bryson Donnell run for no gain to the UTSA 25
-0.7
Q4 6:01
Brandon Tennison pass complete to Mekhi Anderson for 5 yds to the UTSA 30
0.0
Q4 6:01
Brandon Tennison pass incomplete to Jaelen Smith
0.0
Q4 4:51
Caile Hogan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Landon Sides at the UNT 24
+0.1
Q4 4:51
Caile Hogan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Landon Sides at the UNT 29 for a 1ST down
0.0
UNT · Drive 26END OF GAME · 9 plays · 22 yds
Q4 4:51
Ashton Gray run for 8 yds to the UNT 37
+0.4
Q4 4:51
Ashton Gray run for 4 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 4:51
Ashton Gray run for 2 yds to the UNT 43
0.0
Q4 4:51
PENALTY UNT False Start (King,Shandon) 5 yards from UNT43 to UNT38. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 4:51
Ashton Gray run for 18 yds to the UTSA 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout North Texas, clock 02:00
0.0
Q4 2:00
Tom von Grote run for 2 yds to the UTSA 42
0.0
Q4 2:00
T. von Grote takes a knee
0.0
Q4 0:00
T. von Grote takes a knee
+0.1
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:09
Kiefer Sibley run for 18 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+17.9
TD · Q1 13:30
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)
-15.4
TD · Q2 5:22
Robert Henry Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)
-15.2