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FAU

Florida Atlantic 13 at South Florida 48

USF
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:53 · Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 16 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 177Pregame prior+10.4Home team on offense+30.2Score differential+5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.3Garbage-time factor+9.0Blowout margin+12.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:00: Byrum Brown pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 19 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK) — USF win probability +3.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:40: Cole Skinner run for 1 yd for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK) — USF win probability +4.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:12: Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Michael Kirch for 3 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK) — FAU win probability +5.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:20: Nico Gramatica 41 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +0.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:10: Byrum Brown pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 24 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK) — USF win probability +7.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8FAU made the numbers' call on 10 of 15
  1. Q1 8:44FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:53FAU 4th & 10 at USF 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:19USF 4th & 7 at FAU 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:48FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:40USF 4th & 1 at FAU 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    88.1%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:44FAU 4th & 16 at FAU 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:57USF 4th & 6 at USF 32, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:48FAU 4th & 4 at USF 47, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.7%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:43FAU 4th & 9 at USF 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:28USF 4th & 7 at USF 23, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:56FAU 4th & 6 at USF 28, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:13FAU 4th & 6 at USF 16, down 18
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:46USF 4th & 16 at USF 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−2.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:47FAU 4th & 13 at FAU 25, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:20USF 4th & 8 at FAU 23, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−4.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:10FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:10USF 4th & 1 at FAU 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%−1.0
    68% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−3.8
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:10FAU 4th & 19 at USF 40, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:46FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 49, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:53FAU 4th & 8 at USF 47, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:58FAU 4th & 8 at FAU 27, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:50USF 4th & 10 at FAU 10, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:53FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 33, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:46USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:00USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:40USF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:12FAU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:10USF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:39USF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:05USF Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:0991% → 91%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.0%
Alvon Isaac run for no gain to the USF 25Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
90.9%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Jeremiah KogerSimilar
Q1 14:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
90.9%
Byrum Brown run for 16 yds to the USF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
90.8%
Alvon Isaac run for 1 yd to the USF 42Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
90.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Mudia ReubenSimilar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+9
90.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 9 yds to the FAU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
90.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 5 yds to the FAU 44Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
90.6%
Alvon Isaac run for 4 yds to the FAU 40Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
90.6%
Alvon Isaac run for 3 yds to the FAU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
90.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 12 yds to the FAU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
90.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Koger for 3 yds to the FAU 22Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
90.7%
Byrum Brown run for 22 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2FG
18 plays · 51 yds · 5:3610% → 11%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
90.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 4 yds to the FAU 26Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
90.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 3 yds to the FAU 29Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+5
90.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 5 yds to the FAU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
90.3%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 1 yd to the FAU 35Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-5
90.3%
PENALTY FAU False Start 5 yards from FAU35 to FAU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+7
90.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Michael Kirch for 7 yds to the FAU 37Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+6
90.2%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 6 yds to the FAU 43Similar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+3
90.1%
Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds to the FAU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
89.9%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden pass incomplete deep middle to Henry,Dom thrown to USF15 broken up by Rucker,De'Shawn PENALTY USF Pass Interference (Rucker,De'Shawn) 15 yards from FAU46 to USF39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
89.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 4 yds to the USF 35Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
89.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 4 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+4
89.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 4 yds to the USF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-8
89.4%
Caden Veltkamp sacked by Mac Harris for a loss of 8 yards to the USF 35Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 18
OPP 35
+5
89.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 5 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+3
89.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 3 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+45
88.8%
Garrison Smith 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3MISSED FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:2389% → 88%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
88.8%
Nykahi Davenport run for 12 yds to the USF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
88.8%
Byrum Brown run for 8 yds to the USF 37Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+3
88.9%
Nykahi Davenport run for 3 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
88.8%
Christian Neptune run for 20 yds to the FAU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
88.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 4 yds to the FAU 36Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
88.7%
Nykahi Davenport run for 3 yds to the FAU 33Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+5
88.5%
Nykahi Davenport run for 5 yds to the FAU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
88.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Keshaun SingletonSimilar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-2
88.4%
Christian Neptune run for a loss of 2 yards to the FAU 30Similar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+5
87.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Koger for 5 yds to the FAU 25Similar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
87.6%
Nico Gramatica 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5113% → 13%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.2%
run for 7 yds to the FAU 18 fumbled, recovered by FAU Easton MesserSimilar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
87.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Jayshon PlattSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+7
87.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dominique Henry for 7 yds to the FAU 25Similar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
87.5%
Logan Lupo punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4487% → 90%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.0%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Mudia ReubenSimilar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
86.9%
Byrum Brown run for 20 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
87.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Koger for 22 yds to the FAU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
87.5%
Alvon Isaac run for 1 yd to the FAU 32Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+8
87.4%
Byrum Brown run for 8 yds to the FAU 24Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
86.9%
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the FAU 24Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+5
86.6%
PENALTY FAU Disconcerting Signals 5 yards from FAU24 to FAU19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
90.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 19 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6TD
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:1090% → 94%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
90.0%
Sam Franklin run for 7 yds to the FAU 28Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+1
90.0%
Sam Franklin run for 1 yd to the FAU 27Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+18
89.8%
Byrum Brown run for 18 yds to the FAU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
90.0%
Sam Franklin run for 5 yds to the FAU 4Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
90.1%
Sam Franklin run for 2 yds to the FAU 2Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
89.9%
Sam Franklin run for 1 yd to the FAU 1Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.4%
Cole Skinner run for 1 yd for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:517% → 7%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Gemari SandsSimilar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.7%
PENALTY FAU False Start (Richardson,Daughtry) 5 yards from FAU25 to FAU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
92.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Branden HochSimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-1
92.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Gemari Sands for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 19Similar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
92.9%
Logan Lupo punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4495% → 94%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
94.5%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian NeptuneSimilar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
94.5%
Nykahi Davenport run for 4 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
94.4%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian NeptuneSimilar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+26
94.2%
Chase Leon punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FAU 47 , Easton Messer returns for 26 yds to the FAU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9MISSED FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:048% → 8%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
91.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Gemari Sands for 6 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-1
91.4%
Gemari Sands run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 48Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+1
91.6%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the USF 47Similar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+9
91.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 9 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
91.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Michael Kirch for 18 yds to the USF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
91.0%
Gemari Sands run for 1 yd to the USF 19Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
90.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Asaad WaseemSimilar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
91.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Asaad WaseemSimilar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+37
91.7%
Garrison Smith 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0895% → 94%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
94.8%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
94.7%
Alvon Isaac run for 1 yd to the USF 23Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
94.3%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to JeyQuan SmithSimilar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+67
94.1%
Chase Leon punt for 44 yds , Easton Messer returns for 67 yds Florida Atlantic Penalty, Personal Foul (Asaad Waseem) to the FAU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11END OF HALF
20 plays · 45 yds · 3:348% → 9%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
91.9%
Gemari Sands run for 1 yd to the FAU 46Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
92.1%
Gemari Sands run for 2 yds to the FAU 48Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+10
92.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dominique Henry for 10 yds to the USF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
91.9%
(02:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden pass incomplete short right to Platt,Jayshon thrown to USF35 QB hurried by Watson III,Rico PENALTY USF Holding (Knox,Ben) 10 yards from USF42 to USF32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
91.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 2 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+2
91.4%
Caden Veltkamp run for 2 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+5
91.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 5 yds to the USF 23Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 23
-5
91.7%
PENALTY FAU False Start (King,Okino) 5 yards from USF23 to USF28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+8
91.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 8 yds to the USF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
91.2%
Caden Veltkamp sacked by Jacob Merrifield for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 23Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+1
92.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Gemari Sands for 1 yd to the USF 22Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+11
92.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 11 yds to the USF 11Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 1
OPP 11
-5
92.1%
PENALTY FAU False Start (Kirch,Michael) 5 yards from USF11 to USF16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+8
92.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Gemari Sands for 8 yds to the USF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
91.6%
Caden Veltkamp run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 10Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
90.7%
Garrison Smith 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:338% → 16%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kaden Shields-Dutton for no gain to the FAU 25Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
91.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kaden Shields-Dutton for 18 yds to the FAU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
91.4%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 42Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+12
91.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dominique Henry for 12 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
90.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 20 yds to the USF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
90.2%
Caden Veltkamp run for 8 yds to the USF 18Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+15
89.3%
(12:22) Shotgun Henry,Dom pass incomplete short left to Kirch,Michael thrown to USF00 broken up by Lee,Jarvis, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USF Pass Interference (Lee,Jarvis) 15 yards from USF18 to USF03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Michael Kirch for 3 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2187% → 86%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
87.4%
Byrum Brown run for 13 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
88.3%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 41Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
88.5%
Sam Franklin run for 3 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-12
87.9%
Byrum Brown sacked by Gavench Marcelin for a loss of 12 yards to the USF 32Similar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 16
OWN 32
0
86.1%
Chase Leon punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FAU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5114% → 12%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
86.3%
Caden Veltkamp sacked by Devin Lee for a loss of 3 yards to the FAU 25Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
86.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Jayshon PlattSimilar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
87.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Dominique HenrySimilar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 13
OWN 25
+5
87.8%
Logan Lupo punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USF 36 , Christian Neptune returns for 5 yds to the USF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15FG
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:0888% → 89%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+39
87.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 39 yds to the FAU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
88.9%
Nykahi Davenport run for 1 yd to the FAU 24Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+1
88.9%
Nykahi Davenport run for 1 yd to the FAU 23Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
88.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian NeptuneSimilar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
89.0%
Nico Gramatica 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:5412% → 10%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
88.3%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 1 yd to the FAU 29Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-10
88.5%
(07:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden pass complete short right to Shields-Dutton,Kaden caught at FAU27, for 17 yards to the FAU46 (Ward,Tavin), out of bounds PENALTY FAU Holding (Jean,Scarlee) 10 yards from FAU29 to FAU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 19
OWN 19
+2
89.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jabari Smith Jr. for 2 yds to the FAU 17Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 21
OWN 17
+11
89.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kaden Shields-Dutton for 11 yds to the FAU 28Similar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
89.7%
Logan Lupo punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Christian Neptune at the USF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 1:5389% → 97%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
88.8%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the USF 35Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
89.4%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Jeremiah KogerSimilar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+32
88.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 32 yds to the FAU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
90.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Alvon Isaac for no gain to the FAU 33Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
90.3%
Alvon Isaac run for 5 yds to the FAU 28Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+4
90.0%
Alvon Isaac run for 4 yds to the FAU 24Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+24
97.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 24 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18PUNT
14 plays · 35 yds · 3:535% → 4%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 10 yds to the FAU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
95.0%
Caden Veltkamp sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the FAU 33Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
95.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Gemari SandsSimilar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+14
95.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 14 yds to the FAU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
94.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Dominique HenrySimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
94.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 6 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+6
94.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Branden Hoch for 6 yds to the USF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
94.6%
(02:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden pass incomplete short left to Hoch,Branden thrown to USF25 PENALTY USF Holding (Dalias,Jermaine) 10 yards from USF41 to USF31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
94.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Michael Kirch for 3 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-21
94.0%
Caden Veltkamp sacked by Fred Gaskin for a loss of 21 yards to the USF 49 Caden Veltkamp fumbled, recovered by FAU Caden Veltkamp , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 28
OPP 49
+9
95.6%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 9 yds to the USF 40Similar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 19
OPP 40
0
95.8%
Logan Lupo punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Christian Neptune at the USF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
6 plays · 93 yds · 1:2499% → 100%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
98.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to JeyQuan SmithSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
98.6%
Sam Franklin run for no gain to the USF 7Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+22
98.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 22 yds to the USF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
98.9%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+8
98.9%
Sam Franklin run for 8 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
99.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Koger for 60 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20INT
12 plays · 34 yds · 2:252% → 2%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
(13:39) Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden pass intercepted by Knox,Ben at FAU31, End Of Play PENALTY USF Pass Interference declined USF Personal Foul (Flowers,Dennard) 15 yards from FAU25 to FAU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
97.9%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 3 yds to the FAU 43Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
97.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Jayshon PlattSimilar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+6
97.9%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 6 yds to the FAU 49Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
98.2%
Caden Veltkamp run for 2 yds to the USF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
98.2%
Gemari Sands run for 2 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
98.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Dominique HenrySimilar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 8
OPP 47
+16
98.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 16 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
98.0%
(11:38) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden sacked for loss of 2 yards to the USF33 (Harris,D.J.) PENALTY FAU Holding (Nonar,Ja'Kavion) 10 yards from USF31 to USF41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 20
OPP 41
-21
98.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass intercepted Rico Watson III return for 21 yds to the FAU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.7%
Nykahi Davenport run for 6 yds to the FAU 39Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-5
99.8%
PENALTY USF Offside (Singleton,Keshaun) 5 yards from FAU39 to FAU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+5
99.8%
Nykahi Davenport run for 5 yds to the FAU 39Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
99.8%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the FAU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
99.8%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Byrum pass incomplete short right to Singleton,Keshaun thrown to FAU34 PENALTY FAU Personal Foul (Stolsky,Tyler) 15 yards from FAU34 to FAU19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+17
99.8%
Nykahi Davenport run for 17 yds to the FAU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Nykahi Davenport run for 2 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Gemari Sands run for 6 yds to the FAU 31Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-4
99.9%
Gemari Sands run for a loss of 4 yards to the FAU 27Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Michael KirchSimilar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+4
99.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Ethan Ervin for 4 yds to the FAU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23FG
11 plays · 21 yds · 5:01100% → 100%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.9%
Nykahi Davenport run for 5 yds to the FAU 26Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+4
99.9%
Gaston Moore run for 4 yds to the FAU 22Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+5
99.9%
Nykahi Davenport run for 5 yds to the FAU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
99.9%
Nykahi Davenport run for 2 yds to the FAU 15Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+8
99.9%
Sam Franklin run for 8 yds to the FAU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
99.9%
Sam Franklin run for 3 yds to the FAU 4Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
99.9%
Gaston Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the FAU 7Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
99.9%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Moore,Gaston pass complete short right to Reuben,Mudia caught at FAU00, for 7 yards to the FAU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 03:40 PENALTY USF Holding (Best,Cole) 10 yards from FAU07 to FAU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+7
99.9%
Gaston Moore pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 7 yds to the FAU 10Similar
Q4 2:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
100.0%
Nico Gramatica 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24END OF GAME
15 plays · 66 yds · 2:340% → 0%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Jordan Magwood run for 3 yds to the FAU 28Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Jordan Magwood pass incomplete to Joseph YoungSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
100.0%
Jordan Magwood pass complete to Martavious Collins for 5 yds to the FAU 33Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+8
99.9%
Jordan Magwood run for 8 yds to the FAU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
100.0%
Jordan Magwood pass complete to Ethan Ervin for 2 yds to the FAU 39Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+20
100.0%
Jordan Magwood pass complete to Joseph Young for 20 yds to the USF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
100.0%
Jordan Magwood run for 5 yds to the USF 36Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+5
100.0%
Jordan Magwood pass complete to Jade Card for 5 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
100.0%
Jordan Magwood pass incomplete to Jabari Smith Jr.Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
100.0%
Jordan Magwood pass complete to Jade Card for no gain to the USF 31Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+17
100.0%
Jordan Magwood pass complete to Jabari Smith Jr. for 17 yds to the USF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
100.0%
Ethan Ervin run for 5 yds to the USF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:10
Byrum Brown pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 24 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
+7.5
TD · Q3 12:12
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Michael Kirch for 3 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
-5.5
TD · Q2 9:40
Cole Skinner run for 1 yd for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com