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TEM

Temple 49 at Charlotte 14

CLT
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreTEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:58 · Jake Davids run for 2 yds to the TEM 23 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Home team on offense−57.4Pregame prior−1.5Score differential−47.6Garbage-time factor−15.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−9.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:38: Evan Simon pass complete to Colin Chase for 11 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK) — TEM win probability +1.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:38: Grayson Loftis pass complete to Gus McGee for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK) — CLT win probability +4.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:38: Timeout Charlotte, clock 01:38 — TEM win probability +1.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 9:45: Grayson Loftis pass intercepted Adrian Laing return for 64 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK) — TEM win probability +5.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:00: Jay Ducker run for 1 yd for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK) — TEM win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 12:37TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:50CLT 4th & 8 at TEM 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    30.0%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:38CLT 4th & 2 at TEM 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−4.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:32TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:49CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:00TEM 4th & 5 at CLT 33, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:10CLT 4th & 12 at CLT 23, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:03CLT 4th & 11 at CLT 24, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:14TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 39, up 35
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:23CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 5, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:06TEM 4th & 14 at TEM 33, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:58CLT 4th & 1 at TEM 25, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:38TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:38CLT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:45TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:00TEM Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:57CLT Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:0579% → 78%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
21.5%
Evan Simon run for 10 yds to the TEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
21.7%
Keveun Mason run for 6 yds to the TEM 40Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-1
21.8%
Jay Ducker run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEM 39Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+4
22.2%
Keveun Mason run for 4 yds to the TEM 43Similar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
22.4%
Dante Atton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:3923% → 24%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
22.5%
Cameren Smith run for 13 yds to the CLT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+25
22.8%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 10 yds to the TEM 37 for a 1ST down Temple Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamere Jones) to the TEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
23.3%
Grayson Loftis run for 10 yds to the TEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
23.5%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Miles BurrisSimilar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
23.6%
Cameren Smith run for 3 yds to the TEM 35Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-1
23.9%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Cameren Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the TEM 36Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
23.9%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Javen NicholasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 2:0176% → 78%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
23.7%
Jay Ducker run for 19 yds to the CLT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
23.8%
Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 18 yds to the CLT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
23.8%
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 16 yds to the CLT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
21.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Colin Chase for 11 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5323% → 29%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.7%
Cameren Smith run for 2 yds to the CLT 27Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
22.9%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Cameren Smith for 3 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+36
22.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sean Brown for 36 yds to the TEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
24.1%
Derrick Eley run for 12 yds to the TEM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
24.3%
Cameren Smith run for 6 yds to the TEM 16Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 4
OPP 16
-1
24.5%
Cameren Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEM 17Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+9
24.3%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Miles Burris for 9 yds to the TEM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
24.9%
Jariel Cobb run for 3 yds to the TEM 5Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
25.1%
Grayson Loftis run for 4 yds to the TEM 1Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
24.6%
Jariel Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEM 2Similar
Q1 1:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Gus McGee for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:0073% → 71%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
27.4%
Hunter Smith run for 1 yd to the TEM 26Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
27.7%
Evan Simon pass incomplete to Kajiya HollawayneSimilar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
28.1%
Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 9 yds to the TEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
27.8%
Hunter Smith run for 7 yds to the TEM 42Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
27.2%
Hunter Smith run for 1 yd to the TEM 43Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
27.6%
Evan Simon run for no gain to the TEM 43Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
28.7%
Dante Atton punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6INT TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:2325% → 20%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
24.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Derrick Eley for 32 yds to the TEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-64
19.6%
Grayson Loftis pass intercepted Adrian Laing return for 64 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3720% → 19%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
19.7%
Cameren Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 16Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+2
19.5%
Jariel Cobb run for 2 yds to the CLT 18Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
18.7%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Gus McGeeSimilar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 9
OWN 18
+31
18.7%
Bronson Long punt for 55 yds , JoJo Bermudez returns for 31 yds to the CLT 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:5382% → 83%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
17.8%
Jay Ducker run for 8 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+29
17.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 29 yds to the CLT 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
17.5%
Evan Simon pass incomplete to Kajiya HollawayneSimilar
Q2 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.5%
Evan Simon run for 5 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9TD
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:1698% → 99%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
2.1%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the CLT 35Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
1.9%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the CLT 33Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
1.8%
Evan Simon pass incomplete to Jay DuckerSimilar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+5
2.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 5 yds to the CLT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+22
1.7%
Jay Ducker run for 22 yds to the CLT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
1.5%
Evan Simon pass complete to Jay Ducker for 5 yds to the CLT 1Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.9%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 0:422% → 2%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.2%
Jariel Cobb run for 3 yds to the CLT 28Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
2.0%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Javen NicholasSimilar
Q3 14:17
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
1.5%
PENALTY CLT Delay Of Game 5 yards from CLT28 to CLT23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
1.5%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Miles BurrisSimilar
Q3 14:10
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
1.5%
Bronson Long punt for 45 yds, fair catch by JoJo Bermudez at the TEM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 1:3198% → 98%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
2.4%
Jay Ducker run for 16 yds to the TEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+44
2.2%
Jay Ducker run for 44 yds to the CLT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
1.8%
Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 8 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:171% → 1%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.4%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Sean BrownSimilar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.4%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 5 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-6
1.3%
Grayson Loftis sacked by Tyrese Whitaker for a loss of 6 yards to the CLT 24Similar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
1.2%
Bronson Long punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4198% → 98%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
1.8%
Hunter Smith run for 6 yds to the TEM 39Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
1.7%
Evan Simon pass incomplete to JoJo BermudezSimilar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
1.7%
Evan Simon pass incomplete to Kajiya HollawayneSimilar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
1.8%
Dante Atton punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:401% → 1%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
1.0%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Connor Adair for 1 yd to the CLT 5Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 9
OWN 5
0
0.9%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Rod Gainey Jr.Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 9
OWN 5
0
0.9%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Javen NicholasSimilar
Q3 9:23
4TH & 9
OWN 5
+3
0.9%
Bronson Long punt for 36 yds , JoJo Bermudez returns for 3 yds to the CLT 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:45100% → 100%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
0.4%
Keveun Mason run for 11 yds to the TEM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
0.3%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jake Woods for 18 yds to the TEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
0.3%
Keveun Mason run for 2 yds to the TEM 39 Temple Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Woods) to the TEM 29Similar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 18
OWN 29
+2
0.3%
Joquez Smith run for 2 yds to the TEM 31Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+2
0.3%
Gevani McCoy run for 2 yds to the TEM 33Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
0.3%
Gevani McCoy run for no gain to the TEM 33Similar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
0.3%
Dante Atton punt for 36 yds , Javen Nicholas returns for no gain to the CLT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 6:570% → 0%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
0.1%
Jake Davids run for 2 yds to the CLT 32Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Jake Davids run for no gain to the CLT 32Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+8
0.1%
Jake Davids run for 8 yds to the CLT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
0.1%
Jake Davids run for 3 yds to the CLT 43Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
0.1%
Jake Davids run for 5 yds to the CLT 48Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+18
0.1%
Zach Wilcke run for 18 yds to the TEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
0.1%
Jake Davids run for 3 yds to the TEM 31Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-2
0.1%
Jake Davids run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEM 33Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+8
0.1%
Jake Davids run for 8 yds to the TEM 25Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
0.1%
Jake Davids run for 2 yds to the TEM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
0.1%
Jake Davids run for 2 yds to the TEM 21Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+3
0.1%
Jake Davids run for 3 yds to the TEM 18Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+8
0.0%
Jake Davids run for 8 yds to the TEM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.1%
Jake Davids run for no gain to the TEM 10Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
0.1%
Zach Wilcke run for 10 yds for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:45
Grayson Loftis pass intercepted Adrian Laing return for 64 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q1 1:38
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Gus McGee for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q1 7:38
Evan Simon pass complete to Colin Chase for 11 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)
-1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com