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Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreMEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:06 · Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 20 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:12: Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +7.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:02: Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 16 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK) — UAB win probability +9.8 pts (now 31%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:33: Solomon Beebe run for 81 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK) — UAB win probability +16.0 pts (now 49%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- FG · Q3 3:14: Gianni Spetic 25 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +6.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:19: AJ Hill pass complete to Christian Ross for 37 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +11.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 0:43MEM 4th & 3 at UAB 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.2%52% to convertField goal85.9%−0.334% to makePunt85.9%−0.3average punt
- Q2 11:44UAB 4th & 2 at MEM 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.5%57% to convertField goal17.0%−0.536% to makePunt17.0%−0.5average punt
- Q2 7:08UAB 4th & 3 at MEM 3, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 20.8% before the snapGo for it21.0%44% to convertField goalTheir call20.3%−0.793% to makePunt16.8%−4.2average punt
- Q2 2:48MEM 4th & 1 at UAB 19, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.4%71% to convertField goal73.8%−1.677% to makePunt69.7%−5.7average punt
- Q3 11:23MEM 4th & 12 at MEM 35, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snapGo for it63.9%−2.523% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.4%average punt
- Q3 3:14MEM 4th & 5 at UAB 7, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snapGo for it37.1%−0.334% to convertField goalTheir call37.4%91% to makePunt23.4%−13.9average punt
- Q4 1:50UAB 4th & 6 at UAB 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snapGo for it92.1%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.3%average punt
- Q4 1:15MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.2%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.7%−2.5average punt
- Q4 0:15MEM 4th & 11 at UAB 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.5%22% to convertField goal9.8%−4.887% to makePunt6.1%−8.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:56UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.6%97% to makeGo for two10.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:42MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.0%97% to makeGo for two90.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:12MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.6%97% to makeGo for two80.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:02UAB Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.9%97% to makeGo for two29.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:33UAB Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.1%97% to makeGo for two49.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:06UAB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%−0.597% to makeGo for two95.4%45% to convert
- Q4 2:19MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.2%97% to makeGo for two7.1%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUABDrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:587% → 10%
Q1 13:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
7.4%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 3 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+9
7.9%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 9 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
9.7%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 15 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2INT14 plays · 24 yds · 6:279% → 12%
Q1 8:23
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+10
9.3%
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Burton,Ryder pass complete short left to Daisy,Xavier caught at UAB33, for 15 yards to the UAB33 (Logan Jr.,Chauncey), out of bounds PENALTY MEM Holding (Logan Jr.,Chauncey) 10 yards from UAB18 to UAB28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+9
10.2%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 9 yds to the UAB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
10.8%
Ryder Burton pass complete to J.C. Sivley for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-5
11.8%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Sneh,Brandon) 5 yards from MEM46 to UAB49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 15
OWN 49
0
11.8%
Ryder Burton pass intercepted Sam Brumfield return for no gain to the MEM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3DOWNS6 plays · 22 yds · 2:1488% → 87%
UABDrive 4FG16 plays · 57 yds · 7:5214% → 21%
Q2 14:11
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+8
14.6%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 8 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+2
16.2%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 2 yds to the MEM 39Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
17.7%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 10 yds to the MEM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
18.0%
(10:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Beebe,Solomon rush right for 19 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 10:35 PENALTY UAB Holding (Ferguson,Antonio) 10 yards from MEM19 to MEM29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 20
OPP 29
+11
18.1%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 11 yds to the MEM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4780% → 84%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
20.5%
UAB Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Sirad Bryant) to the MEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
19.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 12 yds to the UAB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+13
20.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 13 yds to the UAB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
20.1%
(04:56) PENALTY MEM False Start (Lewis,Brendon) 5 yards from UAB28 to UAB33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+4
20.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 4 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+9
22.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 9 yds to the UAB 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6TD10 plays · 75 yds · 0:5219% → 31%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
19.3%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Elijah Lagg for 7 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+17
20.8%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 17 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+15
21.3%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Elijah Lagg for 15 yds to the MEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+20
21.4%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 20 yds to the MEM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
31.2%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 16 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 3:2672% → 66%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 3 yds to the MEM 22Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+10
29.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 10 yds to the MEM 32Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
29.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 5 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-8
28.9%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Jeremiah Vessel for a loss of 8 yards to the MEM 35Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
33.6%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Iverson Hooks at the UAB 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8TD2 plays · 79 yds · 0:4333% → 49%
MEMDrive 9FG17 plays · 68 yds · 7:1052% → 49%
Q3 9:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
48.3%
AJ Hill pass complete to Sutton Smith for 5 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+10
49.7%
AJ Hill pass complete to Christian Ross for 10 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+9
50.5%
AJ Hill pass complete to Matt Adcock for 9 yds to the UAB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
50.1%
PENALTY MEM False Start (Adams,Chris) 5 yards from UAB31 to UAB36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 15
OPP 36
+10
55.3%
(06:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Hill,AJ pass incomplete short right to Braham Jr.,Cortez thrown to UAB25 broken up by Gulley,Delvon PENALTY UAB Holding (Allen,Jonathan) 10 yards from UAB36 to UAB26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+10
51.5%
AJ Hill pass complete to Brady Kluse for 10 yds to the UAB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10FUMBLE11 plays · 56 yds · 5:1359% → 78%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
58.8%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 11 yds to the UAB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+9
66.4%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 9 yds to the UAB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+8
75.6%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Antonio Ferguson for 8 yds to the MEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
77.5%
Nate Rogers run for 10 yds to the MEM 25 Nate Rogers fumbled, recovered by MEM Drue WattsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11INT5 plays · 42 yds · 1:4732% → 36%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
68.1%
AJ Hill pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 30 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
64.3%
AJ Hill pass intercepted Pierre Royster return for no gain to the UAB 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12TD15 plays · 99 yds · 6:3277% → 97%
Q4 9:33
3RD & 6
OWN 5
-2
77.0%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Ferguson,Antonio) 2 yards from UAB05 to UAB03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+31
77.6%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 31 yds to the UAB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+9
83.3%
(07:40) No Huddle-Shotgun Burton,Ryder pass incomplete short middle to Daisy,Xavier thrown to UAB50, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MEM Pass Interference (Bracy,Chris) 9 yards from UAB41 to UAB50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-5
88.2%
(06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Burton,Ryder pass complete short right to Sivley,J.C. caught at MEM32, for 15 yards to the MEM32, out of bounds at MEM32 PENALTY UAB Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from MEM47 to UAB48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+23
89.4%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 23 yds to the MEM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+20
97.1%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 20 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD10 plays · 68 yds · 1:384% → 15%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
96.3%
AJ Hill pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 7 yds to the MEM 39Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-10
96.4%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Hill,AJ pass complete short right to Desrosiers Jr.,Greg caught at MEM37, for 1 yard loss to the MEM38 (McNichols,Tylan) PENALTY MEM Holding (Burke,Travis) 10 yards from MEM39 to MEM29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+18
96.9%
AJ Hill pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 18 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
96.7%
AJ Hill pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 8 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
85.1%
AJ Hill pass complete to Christian Ross for 37 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:2594% → 94%
Q4 1:50
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
93.9%
Patrick Foley punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Sutton Smith at the MEM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15DOWNS14 plays · 67 yds · 1:309% → 11%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
91.4%
AJ Hill pass complete to Brady Kluse for 12 yds to the MEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+3
92.2%
AJ Hill pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 3 yds to the MEM 37Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+21
92.2%
AJ Hill pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 21 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
85.4%
PENALTY MEM False Start (Mitchell,Parker) 5 yards from UAB01 to UAB06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
85.3%
AJ Hill pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 5 yds to the UAB 1Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
85.7%
PENALTY MEM False Start (Walker,Yakiri) 5 yards from UAB01 to UAB06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
87.8%
PENALTY MEM Delay Of Game (Hill,AJ) 5 yards from UAB06 to UAB11. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:33
Solomon Beebe run for 81 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
+16
TD · Q4 2:19
AJ Hill pass complete to Christian Ross for 37 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
-11.6
TD · Q2 0:02
Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 16 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
+9.8