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TLSA

Tulsa 27 at East Carolina 41

ECU
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 16, 2025 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:44 · Ryan Leavy punt for 36 yds , Zion Booker returns for 5 yds to the TLSA 33 Zion Booker fumbled, recovered by TLSA Zion Booker
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior+34.3Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:51: Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 4 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +3.6 pts (now 18%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 9:33: Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 63 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK) — ECU win probability +4.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:09: London Montgomery run for 51 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK) — ECU win probability +6.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:47: Stephen Kittleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +11.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:22: Katin Houser run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK) — ECU win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 13:27TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:52ECU 4th & 15 at TLSA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    84.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:18TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:44ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:58TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:43TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:42TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:00ECU 4th & 13 at ECU 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:05TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:25ECU 4th & 20 at ECU 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−2.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:18TLSA 4th & 2 at ECU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−2.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:42TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 46, down 17
    Close callPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:59ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 14, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:12TLSA 4th & 15 at ECU 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−3.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:39ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.7%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:20ECU 4th & 1 at TLSA 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−1.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−2.3
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:44TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 41, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:51ECU 4th & 4 at TLSA 14, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    79.1%−8.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:35TLSA 4th & 15 at ECU 49, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:49TLSA 4th & 8 at ECU 8, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.9%−0.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:23ECU 4th & 3 at TLSA 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−0.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:37TLSA 4th & 2 at ECU 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:08ECU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:44TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:57ECU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:51TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:33ECU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:09ECU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:47TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:22ECU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2812% → 13%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
87.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 21Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
87.6%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the TLSA 21Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
87.5%
Baylor Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
87.5%
Angus Davies punt for 30 yds, downed at the ECU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2FG
12 plays · 33 yds · 2:2587% → 87%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
87.4%
Katin Houser run for 4 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+10
87.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 10 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
87.4%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Yannick SmithSimilar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
87.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 11 yds to the TLSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
87.3%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
87.3%
London Montgomery run for 7 yds to the TLSA 19Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+6
87.1%
London Montgomery run for 6 yds to the TLSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
87.1%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Brock SpaldingSimilar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
87.1%
London Montgomery run for no gain to the TLSA 13Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
86.9%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 10
OPP 13
-5
86.7%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Triston O'Brien) to the TLSA 18Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+37
86.8%
Nick Mazzie 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2513% → 13%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.8%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Braylin PresleySimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
86.6%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 3 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
86.6%
Angus Davies punt for 56 yds, downed at the ECU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:2786% → 86%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+21
86.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Mike Wright Jr. for 6 yds to the ECU 17 for a 1ST down Tulsa Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (JD Drew) to the ECU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
86.3%
TJ Engleman Jr. run for 7 yds to the ECU 39Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
86.5%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Jaquaize PettawaySimilar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+2
86.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 2 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-5
86.0%
East Carolina Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the ECU 36Similar
Q1 7:44
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+5
85.8%
Ryan Leavy punt for 36 yds , Zion Booker returns for 5 yds to the TLSA 33 Zion Booker fumbled, recovered by TLSA Zion BookerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:5714% → 14%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
86.0%
Baylor Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
86.1%
Baylor Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+9
86.2%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 9 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+1
85.9%
Ajay Allen run for 1 yd to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
85.5%
Baylor Hayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the TLSA 39Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 14
OWN 39
0
85.6%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Micah TeaseSimilar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 14
OWN 39
0
85.7%
Baylor Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
85.9%
Angus Davies punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kyler Pearson at the ECU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:2785% → 87%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
85.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 10 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
87.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 66 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:1614% → 16%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
86.5%
Baylor Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
86.5%
Baylor Hayes run for 4 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+19
86.5%
Micah Tease run for 19 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
85.8%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 5 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+3
86.0%
Baylor Hayes run for 13 yds to the ECU 31 Tulsa Penalty, Offensive Holding (Zion Steptoe) to the ECU 41Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+3
85.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
84.0%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 38 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2384% → 87%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
84.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to TJ Engleman Jr. for 10 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
84.4%
TJ Engleman Jr. run for 7 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
84.7%
TJ Engleman Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
84.5%
TJ Engleman Jr. run for 5 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+30
84.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 30 yds to the TLSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
84.8%
TJ Engleman Jr. run for 6 yds to the TLSA 15Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+7
84.7%
Mike Wright Jr. run for 7 yds to the TLSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
84.6%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 7 yds to the TLSA 1Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.0%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:5014% → 18%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
86.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 8 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+2
85.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+32
86.2%
Zion Steptoe run for 32 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+25
85.6%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 25 yds to the ECU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
85.0%
Baylor Hayes run for no gain to the ECU 11 Baylor Hayes fumbled, recovered by TLSA Zion BookerSimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
84.8%
Baylor Hayes run for 7 yds to the ECU 4Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
82.0%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 4 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 2:1083% → 87%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
82.9%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Brock SpaldingSimilar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+8
82.8%
Brock Spalding run for 8 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+3
82.5%
London Montgomery run for 3 yds to the ECU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
82.8%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Desirrio RilesSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
82.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to London Montgomery for 6 yds to the ECU 33Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+4
82.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 4 yds to the ECU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
86.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 63 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2814% → 13%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
86.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
86.0%
Baylor Hayes run for 3 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-6
85.9%
Baylor Hayes sacked by Ryheem Craig and Jasiyah Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the TLSA 43Similar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
87.2%
Angus Davies punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kyler Pearson at the ECU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 3:1987% → 86%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
86.7%
London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the ECU 16Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+6
86.7%
London Montgomery run for 6 yds to the ECU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
86.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 9 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+4
87.1%
London Montgomery run for 4 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
86.9%
London Montgomery run for 7 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
87.6%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Brock SpaldingSimilar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+3
87.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to London Montgomery for 3 yds to the ECU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.5%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
87.3%
Katin Houser run for 8 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
-6
87.3%
Brock Spalding run for 4 yds to the ECU 43 East Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (Desirrio Riles) to the ECU 47Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-5
86.9%
Katin Houser run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 42Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
86.1%
Ryan Leavy punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:5013% → 13%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
87.0%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Micah Tease for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 10Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+19
87.0%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 19 yds to the TLSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
86.9%
Baylor Hayes run for 4 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+8
86.6%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 8 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
86.3%
Kelvin Washington run for 1 yd to the TLSA 42Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-1
86.3%
Baylor Hayes sacked by Rion Roseborough and Kieran Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 41Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
86.6%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Micah TeaseSimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
87.3%
Angus Davies punt for 51 yds, downed at the ECU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:5986% → 86%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
86.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 3 yds to the ECU 11Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+11
86.3%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 11 yds to the ECU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
86.5%
Katin Houser run for 3 yds to the ECU 25Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+6
86.4%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 6 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+3
86.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
86.0%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Jaquaize PettawaySimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
85.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to TJ Engleman Jr. for 9 yds to the ECU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:2587% → 85%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
86.7%
Wright Jr., Mike rush for 13 yards to the EASTCRLINA38, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (Tarpeh, Jayson) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:43
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
86.6%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
86.5%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:32
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
85.9%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:25
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
85.4%
Ryan Leavy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0215% → 14%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
84.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
84.4%
Baylor Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-10
85.7%
Tulsa Penalty, Offensive Holding (Codie Hornsby) to the TLSA 41Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 17
OWN 41
+15
87.0%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 15 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 2
OPP 44
-5
86.3%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
1 play · 51 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
92.8%
London Montgomery run for 51 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:178% → 7%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
92.2%
Kelvin Washington run for 9 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
91.6%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Dominic RichardsonSimilar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-1
91.9%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 46Similar
Q3 11:42
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
92.6%
Angus Davies punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kyler Pearson at the ECU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2793% → 93%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
93.0%
TJ Engleman Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECU 14Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
93.9%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 6
OWN 14
0
93.7%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 6
OWN 14
0
93.4%
Ryan Leavy punt for 39 yds, downed at the TLSA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20FG
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:398% → 9%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
92.3%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 9 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-5
92.0%
Baylor Hayes run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 49Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+6
92.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the ECU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
92.2%
Baylor Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
92.5%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Grayson Tempest for 7 yds to the ECU 36Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+13
92.2%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 13 yds to the ECU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
91.7%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Jewlyen Roberts Tulsa Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
92.1%
Baylor Hayes run for 3 yds to the ECU 20Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-8
92.3%
Baylor Hayes sacked by Preston Carr for a loss of 8 yards to the ECU 28Similar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 15
OPP 28
+46
91.2%
Seth Morgan 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 40 yds · 4:4793% → 94%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.5%
London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the ECU 30Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
92.5%
London Montgomery run for 3 yds to the ECU 33Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
92.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to London Montgomery for 1 yd to the ECU 34Similar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
92.2%
London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
93.1%
London Montgomery run for 3 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-4
93.3%
Katin Houser sacked by J'Dan Burnett and Joe Hjelle for a loss of 4 yards to the ECU 38Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+18
93.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Payton Mangrum for 18 yds to the TLSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
93.7%
TJ Engleman Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 46Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+11
93.6%
TJ Engleman Jr. run for 11 yds to the TLSA 35Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
93.5%
TJ Engleman Jr. run for no gain to the TLSA 35Similar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
94.2%
TJ Engleman Jr. run for no gain to the TLSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:289% → 20%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
91.5%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 6 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
91.0%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Brody FoleySimilar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
91.3%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion BookerSimilar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+36
91.8%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 36 yds to the ECU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+18
90.1%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 18 yds to the ECU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
90.1%
Ajay Allen run for no gain to the ECU 5Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
91.1%
Baylor Hayes run for 4 yds to the ECU 1Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.6%
Stephen Kittleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 3:5188% → 89%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.9%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
87.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 10 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
88.1%
London Montgomery run for 4 yds to the ECU 39Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+14
89.3%
London Montgomery run for 14 yds to the TLSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
89.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 14 yds to the TLSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
90.1%
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+11
90.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 11 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
90.2%
Mike Wright Jr. run for 2 yds to the TLSA 18Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+4
90.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Payton Mangrum for 4 yds to the TLSA 14Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
89.9%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Payton MangrumSimilar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
89.2%
Nick Mazzie 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:0912% → 9%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
88.0%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion BookerSimilar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
90.4%
Hayes, Baylor pass incomplete to Steptoe, Zion, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference (Lowery, Jordy) 15 yards to the TULSA45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
88.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+5
88.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the ECU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
87.9%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion BookerSimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
88.8%
Baylor Hayes sacked by Zion Wilson and Samuel Dankah for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 49Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 15
OPP 49
0
90.9%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for no gain to the ECU 49Similar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 15
OPP 49
-10
91.5%
Baylor Hayes sacked by Rion Roseborough for a loss of 10 yards to the TLSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:0193% → 98%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
92.5%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
92.5%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+13
92.3%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 13 yds to the TLSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
93.1%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the TLSA 19Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+14
93.1%
Katin Houser run for 14 yds to the TLSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
93.4%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 6Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
93.5%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the TLSA 2Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.0%
Katin Houser run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 3:262% → 5%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
97.8%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 5 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
97.9%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion SteptoeSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+9
98.0%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 9 yds to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
97.9%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 3 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+13
98.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 13 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
97.9%
Baylor Hayes run for 24 yds to the ECU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
97.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 13 yds to the ECU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
97.6%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 5Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
97.2%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECU 8Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.4%
Baylor Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
95.2%
Seth Morgan 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:2399% → 99%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
99.1%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the TLSA 44Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+6
99.1%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 6 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
99.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for no gain to the TLSA 38Similar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
99.3%
Mike Wright Jr. run for no gain to the TLSA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:392% → 2%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
98.5%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 14 yds to the ECU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
98.5%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 2 yds to the ECU 46Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
98.4%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Braylin Presley for 4 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+2
98.4%
Braylin Presley run for 2 yds to the ECU 40Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
98.5%
Braylin Presley run for no gain to the ECU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:47
Stephen Kittleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
-11.5
TD · Q3 13:09
London Montgomery run for 51 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)
+6.5
TD · Q4 5:22
Katin Houser run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)
+4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com