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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreRICE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:47 · Lucas Scheerhorn pass complete to James Falk for 20 yds James Falk fumbled, recovered by RICE Christian Edgar for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:14: Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK) — UTSA win probability +2.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:54: Owen McCown pass complete to AJ Wilson for 20 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK) — UTSA win probability +4.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:39: Owen McCown pass complete to DJ Allen Jr. for 43 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK) — UTSA win probability +1.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:57: Michael Petro 45 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +2.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:16: Patrick Crayton Jr. pass intercepted Kendrick Blackshire return for 17 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK) — UTSA win probability +6.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6RICE made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
- Q1 7:53RICE 4th & 1 at UTSA 18, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 25.8% before the snapGo for it25.8%71% to convertField goalTheir call25.5%−0.379% to makePunt24.7%−1.1average punt
- Q1 2:50RICE 4th & 14 at RICE 21, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snapGo for it23.0%−0.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.9%average punt
- Q2 14:53RICE 4th & 15 at RICE 22, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snapGo for it15.8%−2.816% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.6%average punt
- Q2 13:33UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 37, up 18Close callPunted · 82.8% before the snapGo for it83.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.9%−0.3average punt
- Q2 12:29RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 20, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it15.6%−0.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.3%average punt
- Q2 9:30RICE 4th & 14 at RICE 21, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snapGo for it15.6%−1.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%average punt
- Q2 4:57UTSA 4th & 28 at RICE 28, up 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snapGo for it91.8%−1.17% to convertField goalTheir call93.0%60% to makePunt90.7%−2.3average punt
- Q2 3:31RICE 4th & 5 at UTSA 49, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.7%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 8:07RICE 4th & 1 at UTSA 39, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%70% to convertField goal0.3%−0.236% to makePunt0.3%−0.2average punt
- Q3 5:46UTSA 4th & 21 at RICE 37, up 49Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.19% to convertField goal99.6%40% to makePuntTheir call99.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 2:07RICE 4th & 6 at RICE 29, down 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 0:32UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 36, up 51Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:41RICE 4th & 10 at UTSA 27, down 51Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%62% to makePunt-0.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 7:38UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 34, up 48Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:39UTSA 4th & 3 at RICE 46, up 48Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%52% to convertField goal99.8%−0.123% to makePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:47RICE 4th & 10 at midfield, down 48Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
- Q4 0:09RICE 4th & 6 at UTSA 26, down 48Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.139% to convertField goal0.0%64% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:09RICE 4th & 6 at UTSA 26, down 48Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.139% to convertField goal0.0%64% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7RICE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:47UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.1%97% to makeGo for two74.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:14UTSA Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.1%97% to makeGo for two75.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:54UTSA Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.2%97% to makeGo for two82.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:39UTSA Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.4%97% to makeGo for two89.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:14UTSA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:15RICE Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.2%97% to makeGo for two2.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:16UTSA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:45UTSA Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTSADrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0279% → 79%
Q1 14:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+57
79.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to AJ Wilson for 57 yds to the RICE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2FG10 plays · 57 yds · 4:4721% → 22%
UTSADrive 3TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3278% → 81%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
78.0%
Rice Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Marcus Williams) to the UTSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
78.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to Dan Dishman for 12 yds to the RICE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
78.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to DJ Allen Jr. for 2 yds to the RICE 44Similar
Q1 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 1:1521% → 20%
Q1 3:12
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-5
80.5%
PENALTY RICE False Start (Awe,Andrew) 5 yards from RICE26 to RICE21. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5TD4 plays · 80 yds · 1:4880% → 86%
Q1 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+52
80.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 52 yds to the RICE 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
80.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to DJ Allen Jr. for 8 yds to the RICE 20Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+20
85.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to AJ Wilson for 20 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4415% → 15%
UTSADrive 7PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0286% → 86%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
85.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 2 yds to the UTSA 32Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
85.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jamel Hardy Jr. for 5 yds to the UTSA 37Similar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
85.6%
Caile Hogan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5614% → 14%
Q2 12:48
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+1
86.2%
Patrick Crayton Jr. pass complete to Semaj Pierre for 1 yd to the RICE 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9TD2 plays · 41 yds · 0:4387% → 89%
RICEDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0013% → 14%
Q2 10:37
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
85.7%
run for 7 yds to the RICE 15 fumbled, recovered by RICE Drew DevillierSimilar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+6
86.0%
Drew Devillier pass complete to Aaron Turner for 6 yds to the RICE 21Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+40
85.7%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 64 yds , Elliott Brow returns for 40 yds to the RICE 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11FG11 plays · 17 yds · 4:2290% → 97%
Q2 8:55
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+6
89.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 6 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
91.8%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun McCown,Owen pass complete short left to McCuin,Devin caught at RICE34, for 2 yards loss to the RICE33 (Harper,Jerrick) PENALTY RICE Offside (Hook,Daveon) 5 yards from RICE31 to RICE26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+12
90.5%
Patrick Overmyer run for 2 yds to the RICE 20 for a 1ST down Rice Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Khary Crump) to the RICE 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
90.5%
(06:31) Shotgun Henry,Robert rush right for 7 yards gain to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:26 PENALTY UTSA Holding (Rios,Ben) 10 yards from RICE07 to RICE17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
-12
92.6%
Owen McCown sacked by Daveon Hook for a loss of 12 yards to the RICE 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12DOWNS8 plays · 30 yds · 1:193% → 2%
Q2 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
97.2%
Drew Devillier pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for no gain to the RICE 46Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+5
97.6%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Devillier,Drew pass complete short right to Dickmann,Drayden caught at RICE50, for 4 yards to the RICE50 (Pewee,Owen), out of bounds PENALTY UTSA Offside (Walley Jr.,James) 5 yards from RICE46 to UTSA49. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13TD4 plays · 55 yds · 1:1198% → 98%
Q2 2:43
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+10
97.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 10 yds to the RICE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14TD9 plays · 75 yds · 0:541% → 2%
Q2 1:54
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+13
98.7%
Drew Devillier pass complete to Payton Matthews for 13 yds to the RICE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15END OF HALF8 plays · 8 yds · 1:0898% → 98%
Q2 0:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
98.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jaren Randle for no gain to the UTSA 30Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
98.4%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Henry,Robert rush left for 1 yard gain to the UTSA40 (Awe,Andrew) PENALTY UTSA Illegal Formation 5 yards from UTSA39 to UTSA34. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16INT TD3 plays · -5 yds · 0:248% → 1%
RICEDrive 17FUMBLE RETURN TD6 plays · 24 yds · 2:171% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18DOWNS9 plays · 35 yds · 3:321% → 0%
UTSADrive 19PUNT11 plays · 23 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q3 7:09
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+15
99.6%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Tennison,Brandon pass incomplete deep left to Wilson,AJ thrown to RICE09 broken up by Porter,Omari PENALTY RICE Pass Interference (Porter,Omari) 15 yards from RICE41 to RICE26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
99.6%
PENALTY UTSA Delay Of Game 5 yards from RICE26 to RICE31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 15
OPP 31
-10
99.6%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Henderson III,Will rush right for 12 yards gain to the RICE19 (Stevenson,Peyton) PENALTY UTSA Holding (Overmyer,Patrick) 10 yards from RICE31 to RICE41. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20SF3 plays · -4 yds · 1:240% → 0%
UTSADrive 21TD2 plays · 57 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:450% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:29100% → 100%
Q3 0:32
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Caile Hogan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Drayden Dickmann at the RICE 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24FG11 plays · 55 yds · 5:190% → 0%
Q4 13:03
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+6
99.9%
Lucas Scheerhorn pass complete to Aaron Turner for 6 yds to the UTSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25DOWNS12 plays · 25 yds · 5:44100% → 100%
Q4 4:59
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+10
100.0%
Brandon Tennison pass complete to Mekhi Anderson for 10 yds to the RICE 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 26DOWNS9 plays · 24 yds · 3:210% → 0%
UTSADrive 27END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:16
Patrick Crayton Jr. pass intercepted Kendrick Blackshire return for 17 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q1 0:54
Owen McCown pass complete to AJ Wilson for 20 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)
+4.7
FG · Q2 4:57
Michael Petro 45 yd FG GOOD
+2.7