2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreUAB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:52 · Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Iverson Hooks
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:27: Easton Messer pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 48 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK) — FAU win probability +8.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:04: Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jabari Smith for 37 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK) — FAU win probability +5.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:47: Solomon Beebe run for 14 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UAB win probability +7.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:15: Solomon Beebe 13 Yd Run (Jalen Kitna Pass to Iverson Hooks for Two-Point Conversion) — UAB win probability +11.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:29: Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dominique Henry for 43 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK) — FAU win probability +8.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UAB made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 13:19UAB 4th & 10 at UAB 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snapGo for it35.8%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.9%average punt
- Q1 13:19UAB 4th & 10 at UAB 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snapGo for it35.8%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.9%average punt
- Q1 8:03UAB 4th & 5 at UAB 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snapGo for it33.6%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.7%average punt
- Q1 6:04FAU 4th & 2 at UAB 37, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.9%57% to convertField goal66.5%−0.440% to makePunt66.4%−0.5average punt
- Q1 1:01UAB 4th & 16 at UAB 48, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snapGo for it27.0%−1.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.1%average punt
- Q2 13:45UAB 4th & 24 at UAB 22, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snapGo for it16.3%−2.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.6%average punt
- Q2 8:52UAB 4th & 5 at FAU 44, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.9%41% to convertField goal5.8%−2.027% to makePunt7.5%−0.4average punt
- Q2 3:15UAB 4th & 2 at FAU 13, down 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.6%56% to convertField goal10.5%−0.185% to makePunt10.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 2:00FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 47, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt79.9%−0.8average punt
- Q2 0:35UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snapGo for it9.0%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q2 0:00FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 33, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snapGo for it90.8%−1.039% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.8%average punt
- Q4 5:05UAB 4th & 16 at FAU 27, down 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.115% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%62% to makePunt-0.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 3:10FAU 4th & 1 at UAB 30, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goal99.8%−0.156% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 1:57FAU 4th & 8 at UAB 10, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%88% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 0:47UAB 4th & 15 at UAB 20, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UAB made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
- Q1 10:07FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.2%97% to makeGo for two65.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:17FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.0%97% to makeGo for two70.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:27FAU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.0%97% to makeGo for two81.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:04FAU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.8%97% to makeGo for two91.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:47UAB Touchdown, down 22 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick11.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call11.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:15UAB Touchdown, down 16 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick16.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call16.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:29FAU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.0%97% to makeGo for two91.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:40FAU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUABDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1535% → 35%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for no gain to the UAB 25Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
64.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Evan McCray for no gain to the UAB 25Similar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
65.0%
Patrick Foley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Easton Messer at the FAU 31Similar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
65.0%
Patrick Foley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Easton Messer at the FAU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2TD7 plays · 64 yds · 2:3065% → 67%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for no gain to the FAU 36Similar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+23
65.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 23 yds to the UAB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+13
66.9%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 13 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4934% → 33%
Q1 9:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-7
66.5%
Jalen Kitna sacked by Wilky Denaud for a loss of 7 yards to the UAB 19Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+11
66.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 11 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+31
67.2%
Patrick Foley punt for 46 yds , Easton Messer returns for 31 yds to the UAB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4TD8 plays · 45 yds · 2:4668% → 72%
Q1 7:04
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+7
67.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 7 yds to the UAB 40Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+3
67.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 3 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+26
68.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 26 yds to the UAB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
68.5%
UAB Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Delvon Gulley) to the UAB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.4%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 2 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5PUNT12 plays · 23 yds · 4:0629% → 28%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.8%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Antonio Ferguson for 5 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+20
71.8%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 20 yds to the FAU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
70.8%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Moore,Logan) 5 yards from FAU46 to UAB49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 18
OWN 46
+2
71.8%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 2 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q1 1:01
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
72.3%
Patrick Foley punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Easton Messer at the FAU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6TD4 plays · 81 yds · 0:2973% → 80%
Q1 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+33
73.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 33 yds to the UAB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
81.2%
Easton Messer pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 48 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
80.4%
PENALTY UAB Targeting (Rogers,JaMichael) 15 yards from FAU35 to FAU50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7PUNT7 plays · -14 yds · 1:3120% → 18%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+2
80.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 2 yds to the UAB 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-5
81.0%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Hawkins Jr.,Brandon) 5 yards from UAB35 to UAB30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 30
-3
81.1%
Jalen Kitna sacked by CJ Doggette Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 27Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 27
-5
81.1%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Elder,Jaylen) 5 yards from UAB27 to UAB22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 24
OWN 22
+22
82.0%
Patrick Foley punt for 40 yds , Easton Messer returns for 22 yds to the UAB 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8TD2 plays · 40 yds · 0:4184% → 89%
UABDrive 9TD17 plays · 77 yds · 7:0211% → 13%
Q2 12:01
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+5
89.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Isaiah Jacobs for 5 yds to the UAB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 18
OWN 25
+9
90.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 9 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+17
91.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 17 yds to the FAU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
91.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 5 yds to the FAU 44Similar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 5
OPP 44
+15
91.2%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Kitna,Jalen pass incomplete deep left to Hooks,Iverson thrown to FAU20 PENALTY FAU Pass Interference (Rogers Jr.,Derrick) 15 yards from FAU44 to FAU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+6
93.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Isaiah Jacobs for 6 yds to the FAU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
94.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 5 yds to the FAU 14Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+14
87.0%
Solomon Beebe run for 14 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
UABDrive 11TD4 plays · 21 yds · 2:0913% → 24%
FAUDrive 12TD13 plays · 75 yds · 1:4679% → 93%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
78.6%
PENALTY UAB UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Crozier,Isaiah) 15 yards from FAU25 to FAU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+5
81.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Gemari Sands for 5 yds to the FAU 47Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
83.0%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Sands,Gemari rush left for 8 yards gain to the UAB34 (Hightower,Devin; Royster,Pierre) PENALTY FAU Holding (Kirch,Michael) 10 yards from UAB42 to FAU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+1
82.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 1 yd to the FAU 49Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+43
93.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dominique Henry for 43 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 0:547% → 9%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
91.2%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 10 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
90.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Antonio Ferguson for 6 yds to the UAB 41Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
90.8%
Patrick Foley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Easton Messer at the FAU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:2993% → 93%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
93.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 9 yds to the FAU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15TD9 plays · 50 yds · 3:1293% → 98%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
93.0%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 16 yds to the UAB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+7
94.0%
(12:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden pass incomplete short left to Henry,Dom thrown to UAB00 PENALTY UAB Pass Interference (Gulley,Delvon) 7 yards from UAB09 to UAB02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.4%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16FG15 plays · 36 yds · 6:380% → 0%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 4 yds to the FAU 45Similar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
99.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Isaiah Jacobs for 9 yds to the FAU 29Similar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
99.9%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Kitna,Jalen pass incomplete deep right to Lagg,Elijah thrown to FAU00 PENALTY UAB Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Lepkowski,Adam) 5 yards from FAU21 to FAU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+2
99.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Jevon Jackson for 2 yds to the FAU 24Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+7
99.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 7 yds to the FAU 17Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 6
OPP 17
-10
99.9%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Kitna,Jalen rush middle for 13 yards gain to the FAU04 (Williams,Dillion) PENALTY UAB Holding (Moore,Logan) 10 yards from FAU17 to FAU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.9%
(05:05) Simpson,Owen onside kickoff 10 yards to the UAB45 PENALTY UAB Illegal Motion (Toussom,Eddy) 5 yards from UAB35 to UAB30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17FG13 plays · 29 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
Q4 3:10
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+18
99.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 18 yds to the UAB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 18DOWNS5 plays · -9 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-15
100.0%
UAB Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the UAB 15Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+5
100.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 5 yds to the UAB 20Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-4
100.0%
Jalen Kitna sacked by Earl Miller Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the UAB 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:15
Solomon Beebe 13 Yd Run (Jalen Kitna Pass to Iverson Hooks for Two-Point Conversion)
-11.8
TD · Q2 1:29
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dominique Henry for 43 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q1 0:27
Easton Messer pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 48 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
+8.2