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USF

South Florida 63 at North Texas 36

UNT
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 10, 2025 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:55 · Byrum Brown run for 9 yds to the UNT 7 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense+0.9Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Pregame prior+3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:02: Byrum Brown pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 2 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK) — USF win probability +15.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:51: Christian Neptune pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 29 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK) — USF win probability +13.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:35: Sam Franklin run for 11 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK) — USF win probability +11.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:35: Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 54 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +11.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:14: Byrum Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Koger for 63 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK) — USF win probability +13.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:04UNT 4th & 11 at UNT 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:24UNT 4th & 7 at USF 7, tied
    Close callWent for it · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    58.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:55USF 4th & 2 at UNT 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    37.6%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:31UNT 4th & 20 at UNT 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−1.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:12UNT 4th & 1 at USF 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−1.9
    87% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−7.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:36USF 4th & 19 at USF 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−2.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:43USF 4th & 3 at USF 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−1.0
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:18UNT 4th & 2 at USF 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−1.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−8.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:18USF 4th & 14 at UNT 46, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:42UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 12, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:42UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 12, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:28UNT 4th & 12 at USF 38, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:09UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 31, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 8:42UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:41USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:12UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:37USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:12UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:02USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:51USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:35USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 11:35USF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 9:35UNT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 8:14USF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 13:49USF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 8:15UNT Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.1%
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 5:51USF Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4854% → 54%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Tre Williams IIISimilar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
53.8%
Caleb Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 24Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
53.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Tre Williams IIISimilar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
53.9%
Sawyer Evans punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1746% → 46%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
53.9%
Sam Franklin run for 9 yds to the USF 40Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+15
53.9%
Sam Franklin run for 15 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
53.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 8 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+2
53.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 2 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-12
53.8%
Byrum Brown sacked by Quinton Hammonds for a loss of 12 yards to the UNT 47 Byrum Brown fumbled, recovered by UNT Ethan Day , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:5554% → 58%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
54.3%
Caleb Hawkins run for 1 yd to the UNT 48Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+26
54.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 26 yds to the USF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
54.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Miles Coleman for a 1ST down South Florida Penalty, Defensive Holding (James Chenault) to the USF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
54.7%
Caleb Hawkins run for a loss of 6 yards to the USF 12Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
54.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 3 yds to the USF 9Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
54.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 2 yds to the USF 7Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
54.9%
Caleb Hawkins run for 5 yds to the USF 2Similar
Q1 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.0%
Drew Mestemaker run for 2 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4FUMBLE
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:3544% → 43%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
55.6%
Byrum Brown run for 8 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
56.6%
Nykahi Davenport run for 2 yds to the USF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
57.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 5 yds to the USF 40Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
56.7%
Byrum Brown run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
50
+9
57.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 9 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-2
56.8%
Byrum Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 43 Byrum Brown fumbled, recovered by UNT Shane WhitterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5INT
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:0461% → 63%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
60.9%
Makenzie McGill II run for 4 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
61.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Brandon Young Jr. for 8 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+28
62.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 28 yds to the USF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
62.8%
Makenzie McGill II run for 3 yds to the USF 14Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-31
63.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass intercepted Jhalyn Shuler return for 31 yds to the USF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:0042% → 48%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
58.3%
Byrum Brown run for 25 yds to the UNT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
56.7%
Alvon Isaac run for 7 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+3
56.6%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the UNT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
56.7%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
57.0%
Alvon Isaac run for 4 yds to the UNT 20Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+4
57.4%
Alvon Isaac run for 4 yds to the UNT 16Similar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+9
58.7%
Byrum Brown run for 9 yds to the UNT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
52.3%
Byrum Brown run for 7 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2055% → 65%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.4%
Caleb Hawkins run for 2 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
55.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 1 yd to the UNT 28Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+19
54.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 19 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
57.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 16 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
57.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 14 yds to the USF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
65.3%
Makenzie McGill II run for 23 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
60.8%
Byrum Brown pass intercepted Dalton Carnes return for no gain to the USF 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:2966% → 65%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
65.8%
PENALTY UNT False Start (Yanta II,Tay) 5 yards from USF46 to UNT49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 49
-5
65.1%
PENALTY UNT False Start (Evans,Simeon) 5 yards from UNT49 to UNT44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 20
OWN 44
-5
65.2%
Makenzie McGill II run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNT 39Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 25
OWN 39
+5
65.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 5 yds to the UNT 44Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 20
OWN 44
0
65.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt YoungSimilar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 20
OWN 44
+16
64.5%
Sawyer Evans punt for 48 yds , Alvon Isaac returns for 16 yds to the USF 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 3:4939% → 50%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
61.5%
Sam Franklin run for 2 yds to the USF 26Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+13
61.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Koger for 13 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
60.8%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
60.4%
Sam Franklin run for 1 yd to the USF 45Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+15
60.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 15 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
60.3%
Sam Franklin run for 4 yds to the UNT 36Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+6
60.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 6 yds to the UNT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
59.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 4 yds to the UNT 26Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
59.5%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Joshua PorterSimilar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+7
60.5%
Byrum Brown run for 7 yds to the UNT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
59.8%
Sam Franklin run for 5 yds to the UNT 14Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
50.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Koger for 14 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:1957% → 70%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
56.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Landon Sides for a 1ST down South Florida Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Josh Celiscar) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
50
+3
58.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 3 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+15
58.9%
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Mestemaker,Drew pass incomplete deep left to Sides,Landon thrown to USF15, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USF Pass Interference (Knox,Ben) 15 yards from USF47 to USF32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
59.5%
Caleb Hawkins run for 6 yds to the USF 26Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+1
59.6%
Caleb Hawkins run for 1 yd to the USF 25Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+5
58.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 5 yds to the USF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
59.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Caleb HawkinsSimilar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
59.6%
Caleb Hawkins run for 5 yds to the USF 15Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+4
59.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 4 yds to the USF 11Similar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+11
69.6%
Wyatt Young run for 11 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:2535% → 32%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 7 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
63.8%
Alvon Isaac run for 6 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
64.3%
Byrum Brown sacked by Saadiq Clements for a loss of 6 yards to the USF 32Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 16
OWN 32
-3
66.0%
Byrum Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 29Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 19
OWN 29
0
67.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Alvon Isaac for no gain to the USF 29Similar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 19
OWN 29
0
68.1%
Chase Leon punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13INT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:3772% → 73%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
71.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 13 yds to the UNT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
73.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Cameron DornerSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
72.8%
Makenzie McGill II run for 3 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+8
72.3%
Drew Mestemaker run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
50
0
72.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass intercepted Jonas Duclona return for no gain to the USF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:5831% → 30%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
69.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 11 yds to the USF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
68.9%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
68.1%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
68.9%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Keshaun SingletonSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+50
69.9%
Chase Leon punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15TD
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:3537% → 49%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
63.5%
Byrum Brown run for 9 yds to the UNT 8Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+5
64.0%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the UNT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
63.7%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the UNT 2Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.5%
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the UNT 2Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 2 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0347% → 64%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
52.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 18 yds to the USF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+26
50.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 26 yds to the UNT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
48.9%
Nykahi Davenport run for 2 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+29
35.7%
Christian Neptune pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 29 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4741% → 40%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Simeon EvansSimilar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.6%
Caleb Hawkins run for 4 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-27
39.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass intercepted Fred Gaskin return for 27 yds to the UNT 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:1465% → 76%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
35.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to JeyQuan Smith for 4 yds to the UNT 11Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
24.1%
Sam Franklin run for 11 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19FUMBLE RETURN TD
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5628% → 11%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Simeon EvansSimilar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
27.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Terrence LewisSimilar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
26.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 11 yds to the UNT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+34
17.5%
Jhalyn Shuler 34 Yd Fumble Return (Nico Gramatica Kick)Similar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
11.3%
PENALTY USF UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Shuler,Jhalyn) 15 yards from USF35 to USF20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:4917% → 27%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
17.1%
Makenzie McGill II run for 1 yd to the UNT 33Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+2
16.5%
Makenzie McGill II run for 2 yds to the UNT 35Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+11
15.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 11 yds to the UNT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
26.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 54 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 1:1078% → 92%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
22.2%
Alvon Isaac run for 9 yds to the USF 23Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+3
21.4%
Alvon Isaac run for 3 yds to the USF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
21.3%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Keshaun SingletonSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
21.5%
Alvon Isaac run for 11 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
8.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Koger for 63 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 1:5012% → 10%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
12.1%
Caleb Hawkins run for 1 yd to the UNT 26Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
11.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 7 yds to the UNT 33Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
12.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 8 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+30
12.5%
Caleb Hawkins run for 30 yds to the USF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
14.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Miles ColemanSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
13.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt YoungSimilar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+8
12.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 8 yds to the USF 21Similar
Q3 6:18
4TH & 2
OPP 21
-7
10.0%
Drew Mestemaker sacked by Jacob Merrifield for a loss of 7 yards to the USF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:5594% → 95%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
6.1%
Nykahi Davenport run for 7 yds to the USF 35Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
5.9%
Nykahi Davenport run for no gain to the USF 35Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+7
5.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Kory Pettigrew for 7 yds to the USF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
5.4%
North Texas Penalty, Defensive Holding (Shane Whitter) to the UNT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
5.2%
Byrum Brown sacked by Trey Fields for a loss of 5 yards to the UNT 47Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+6
4.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 6 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
4.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Wyatt SullivanSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 9
OPP 41
-5
5.0%
PENALTY USF Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UNT41 to UNT46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 14
OPP 46
0
5.0%
Chase Leon punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Miles Coleman at the UNT 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:337% → 6%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
6.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Landon SidesSimilar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
6.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for no gain to the UNT 7Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+5
6.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Makenzie McGill II for 5 yds to the UNT 12Similar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 5
OWN 12
0
5.9%
Sawyer Evans punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Alvon Isaac at the USF 46Similar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 5
OWN 12
0
5.9%
Sawyer Evans punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Alvon Isaac at the UNT 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25TD
10 plays · 49 yds · 2:4796% → 99%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
3.8%
Sam Franklin run for 4 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
3.7%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the UNT 40Similar
Q3 0:51
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+6
3.6%
Alvon Isaac run for 6 yds to the UNT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
3.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Koger for 4 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+14
3.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Kory Pettigrew for 14 yds to the UNT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
3.3%
Alvon Isaac run for 3 yds to the UNT 13Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+3
3.3%
Alvon Isaac run for 3 yds to the UNT 10Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+7
3.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 7 yds to the UNT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
3.0%
Alvon Isaac run for 2 yds to the UNT 1Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.7%
Cole Skinner run for 1 yd for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:271% → 3%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
1.0%
Caleb Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 24Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
0.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 6 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
0.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Shandon King for 8 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
0.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
50
+1
0.7%
Caleb Hawkins run for 1 yd to the USF 49Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
0.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt YoungSimilar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+13
0.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 13 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
0.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt YoungSimilar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
0.5%
Caleb Hawkins run for 1 yd to the USF 35Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-3
0.4%
Drew Mestemaker sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 38Similar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 12
OPP 38
+22
0.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 22 yds to the USF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
0.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 6 yds to the USF 10Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+1
0.3%
Caleb Hawkins run for 1 yd to the USF 9Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
3.2%
D. Mestemaker pass to T. Williams III for 10 yds for a TD (D. Carnes pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:5698% → 100%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
2.1%
North Texas Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (Richard Outland Jr.) to the UNT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
2.0%
Nykahi Davenport run for 4 yds to the UNT 23Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+14
1.7%
Nykahi Davenport run for 14 yds to the UNT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.2%
Byrum Brown run for 9 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.3%
Ashton Gray run for 3 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
0.2%
Chris Jimerson Jr. pass incomplete to Kyle KochSimilar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
0.2%
Chris Jimerson Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNT 31Similar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
0.2%
Sawyer Evans punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Christian Neptune at the USF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29END OF GAME
8 plays · 62 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+26
0.2%
Chase Garnett run for 26 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.2%
Chase Garnett run for 10 yds to the UNT 35 South Florida Penalty, Illegal Block (Jeremiah Koger) to the UNT 45Similar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+26
0.2%
Chase Garnett run for 26 yds to the UNT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
0.2%
Chase Garnett run for 2 yds to the UNT 17Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+4
0.1%
Chase Garnett run for 4 yds to the UNT 13Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+6
0.1%
Chase Garnett run for 6 yds to the UNT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
0.1%
G. Moore takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.1%
G. Moore takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:02
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 2 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
-15.9
TD · Q3 13:51
Christian Neptune pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 29 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q3 8:14
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Koger for 63 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
-13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com