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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreUTSA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:22 · Caile Hogan punt for 60 yds , JoJo Bermudez returns for 60 yds to the UTSA 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:21: Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK) — UTSA win probability +6.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:03: Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 8 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK) — TEM win probability +15.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:20: Timeout UTSA, clock 03:20 — TEM win probability +19.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:52: Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 4 yds to the UTSA 29 — UTSA win probability +16.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:30: (01:31) Kneel down by Temple at UTSA08 for loss of 1 yard. — TEM win probability +28.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 5:53TEM 4th & 10 at UTSA 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snapGo for it34.9%−0.326% to convertField goalTheir call35.2%85% to makePunt33.4%−1.8average punt
- Q1 4:22UTSA 4th & 16 at UTSA 19, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snapGo for it61.5%−1.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.5%average punt
- Q1 4:22UTSA 4th & 16 at UTSA 19, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snapGo for it61.5%−1.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.5%average punt
- Q1 0:07TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 43, down 4Close callPunted · 37.7% before the snapGo for it38.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 11:45UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 45, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt61.1%−1.2average punt
- Q2 4:45TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 33, down 11Close callPunted · 27.6% before the snapGo for it27.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 3:10UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 34, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snapGo for it70.8%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.2%average punt
- Q2 0:50TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 43, down 11Close callPunted · 27.0% before the snapGo for it27.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.7%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:00UTSA 4th & 16 at UTSA 11, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snapGo for it68.3%−2.714% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.0%average punt
- Q4 12:49TEM 4th & 14 at TEM 7, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snapGo for it29.2%−3.916% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.2%average punt
- Q4 5:08TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 35, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snapGo for it25.9%−1.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.0%average punt
- Q4 3:24UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 31, up 4Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 79.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.3%−1.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt81.4%average punt
- Q4 1:56TEM 4th & 9 at UTSA 18, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.9% before the snapGo for it21.2%−6.230% to convertField goalTheir call27.4%79% to makePunt11.1%−16.4average punt
- Q4 1:31UTSA 4th & 20 at UTSA 15, up 4Numbers favored punt by 9.3 ptsWent for it · 86.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.1%−9.39% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt88.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:44UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.3%97% to makeGo for two64.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:21UTSA Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.5%97% to makeGo for two70.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:03TEM Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.8%97% to makeGo for two35.6%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTSADrive 1TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0772% → 72%
Q1 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
27.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 3 yds to the UTSA 33Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 2
OWN 45
-5
28.5%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Marshall,Deandre) 5 yards from UTSA45 to UTSA40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
28.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry Jr. for 9 yds to the UTSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
28.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 14 yds to the TEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
28.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 17 yds to the TEM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2FG9 plays · 57 yds · 2:3629% → 31%
Q1 8:04
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+15
28.8%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Simon,Evan pass incomplete short right to Hollawayne,Kajiya thrown to UTSA48 PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (Martin,Davin) 15 yards from TEM35 to TEM50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
50
+15
29.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Colin Chase for 15 yds to the UTSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
29.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 22 yds to the UTSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1570% → 68%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Dan Dishman for 4 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+60
31.7%
Caile Hogan punt for 60 yds , JoJo Bermudez returns for 60 yds to the UTSA 19Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+60
31.7%
Caile Hogan punt for 60 yds , JoJo Bermudez returns for 60 yds to the TEM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 4:1531% → 32%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
30.7%
PENALTY UTSA Offside (Blaylock,Cam) 5 yards from TEM09 to TEM14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+15
30.8%
Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 15 yds to the TEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
31.8%
Evan Simon sacked by Nnanna Anyanwu for a loss of 1 yard to the TEM 36Similar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
32.0%
Dante Atton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Elliott Brow at the UTSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5TD14 plays · 81 yds · 7:3968% → 76%
Q2 14:07
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+10
32.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 10 yds to the UTSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
32.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 7 yds to the UTSA 43Similar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
31.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 13 yds to the TEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+6
31.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 6 yds to the TEM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+13
31.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to Dan Dishman for 13 yds to the TEM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
24.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 2:1725% → 24%
Q2 5:56
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+4
24.6%
PENALTY UTSA Offside (Munnerlyn,Don) 4 yards from TEM31 to TEM35. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3175% → 75%
TEMDrive 8PUNT11 plays · 29 yds · 2:1124% → 23%
UTSADrive 9PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 0:4278% → 77%
Q2 0:14
3RD & 8
OWN 19
-10
22.5%
(00:24) Shotgun McCown,Owen rush left for 9 yards gain to the UTSA28 (Castleberry,Jaylen), out of bounds PENALTY UTSA Holding (Missouri,Kamar) 10 yards from UTSA19 to UTSA09. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:4424% → 40%
Q3 14:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+36
23.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 36 yds to the UTSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 2
OPP 29
-10
25.3%
(12:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Ducker,Jay rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTSA28 (Banks Jr.,Shad) PENALTY TEM Holding (Barajas,Diego) 10 yards from UTSA29 to UTSA39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+19
24.1%
Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 19 yds to the UTSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+13
25.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to Colin Chase for 13 yds to the UTSA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
40.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 8 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11PUNT3 plays · -4 yds · 0:1534% → 32%
UTSADrive 12INT6 plays · 31 yds · 3:0672% → 76%
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
27.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Will Henderson III for 5 yds to the TEM 41Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+15
27.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to AJ Wilson for 15 yds to the TEM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
23.8%
Owen McCown pass intercepted Avery Powell return for no gain to the TEM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 4:1535% → 31%
Q4 8:07
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+10
32.8%
Evan Simon pass complete to Hunter Smith for 10 yds to the TEM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
35.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Colin Chase for 11 yds to the TEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
35.9%
PENALTY TEM False Start (Barajas,Diego) 5 yards from TEM40 to TEM35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
30.6%
Dante Atton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Elliott Brow at the UTSA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3976% → 80%
Q4 3:53
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+5
23.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 5 yds to the UTSA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15FG11 plays · 13 yds · 1:2240% → 31%
UTSADrive 16DOWNS6 plays · -18 yds · 0:2188% → 89%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 4 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-14
10.8%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun McCown,Owen pass complete short left to Wilson,AJ caught at UTSA32, for 3 yards to the UTSA32 (Osueke,Ben) PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (Amador II,David) 14 yards from UTSA29 to UTSA15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 20
OWN 15
-8
11.3%
Owen McCown sacked by Demerick Morris for a loss of 8 yards to the UTSA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17END OF GAME3 plays · -3 yds · 1:3039% → 27%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+73.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:30
(01:31) Kneel down by Temple at UTSA08 for loss of 1 yard.
+28
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:20
Timeout UTSA, clock 03:20
+19.4