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ARMY

Army 31 at UAB 13

UAB
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Protective Stadium
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Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:07 · Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−2.6Pregame prior−6.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:47: Hayden Reed run for 3 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK) — ARMY win probability +6.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:16: Jalen Kitna pass complete to Xavier Daisy for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK) — UAB win probability +13.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:02: PENALTY ARM UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Parks,Lane) 15 yards from ARM35 to ARM20. NO PLAY. — UAB win probability +3.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:11: Cale Hellums run for 5 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK) — ARMY win probability +14.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:18: Cale Hellums run for 1 yd for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK) — ARMY win probability +13.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 6 of 10ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 9:21UAB 4th & 13 at ARMY 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:21UAB 4th & 13 at ARMY 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:12ARMY 4th & 2 at UAB 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    60.9%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:25ARMY 4th & 1 at UAB 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.7%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    59.6%−1.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    56.7%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:02UAB 4th & 18 at UAB 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−2.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:19ARMY 4th & 11 at UAB 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:27UAB 4th & 15 at UAB 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:08ARMY 4th & 11 at ARMY 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:07ARMY 4th & 1 at UAB 32, tied
    Close callWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.7%−0.8
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:50ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:07UAB 4th & 2 at ARMY 12, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%−1.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−11.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:48ARMY 4th & 3 at UAB 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    76.8%−0.8
    74% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−9.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:42UAB 4th & 4 at ARMY 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−1.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:49UAB 4th & 6 at ARMY 26, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−4.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:49UAB 4th & 6 at ARMY 26, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−4.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:24ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:45UAB 4th & 10 at UAB 20, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:54UAB 4th & 1 at ARMY 1, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 13:47ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:16UAB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:11ARMY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:18ARMY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:10ARMY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:54UAB Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UABDrive 1MISSED FG
14 plays · 40 yds · 5:2737% → 39%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
37.0%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Iverson HooksSimilar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
37.1%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Xavier Daisy for 8 yds to the UAB 42Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+13
37.3%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Xavier Daisy for 13 yds to the ARMY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
37.5%
Jevon Jackson run for 4 yds to the ARMY 41Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+7
37.8%
Jevon Jackson run for 7 yds to the ARMY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
38.2%
Jevon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARMY 36Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+4
38.3%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 4 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+9
38.7%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 9 yds to the ARMY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
39.1%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Antonio FergusonSimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-7
39.2%
Jalen Kitna sacked by Cole Searight for a loss of 7 yards to the ARMY 30Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 17
OPP 30
+4
39.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 4 yds to the ARMY 26Similar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 13
OPP 26
+44
39.0%
Jonah Delange 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jack BousumSimilar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 13
OPP 26
+44
39.0%
Jonah Delange 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jack BousumSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
19 plays · 74 yds · 10:2961% → 66%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
39.0%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the ARMY 29Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+3
38.9%
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+6
39.4%
Hayden Reed run for 6 yds to the ARMY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
39.1%
Noah Short run for 2 yds to the ARMY 40Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
39.3%
Carson Smith run for 6 yds to the ARMY 46Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+10
39.3%
Hayden Reed run for 10 yds to the UAB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
39.3%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the UAB 41Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
39.4%
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+3
39.7%
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the UAB 36Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+2
40.5%
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the UAB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
39.5%
Noah Short run for no gain to the UAB 34Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
39.3%
Briggs Bartosh run for 3 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+17
39.9%
Noah Short run for 17 yds to the UAB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
39.3%
PENALTY ARM False Start (Poloskey,Parker) 5 yards from UAB14 to UAB19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 15
OPP 19
0
39.5%
Dewayne Coleman run for no gain to the UAB 19Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+7
40.0%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Samari Howard for 7 yds to the UAB 12Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+7
40.1%
Noah Short run for 7 yds to the UAB 5Similar
Q2 14:25
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+2
40.9%
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the UAB 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
34.2%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 1:3836% → 35%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
36.3%
Jevon Jackson run for 1 yd to the UAB 26Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
36.3%
(13:15) No Huddle-Shotgun Beebe,Solomon rush left for 12 yards gain to the UAB38 (Shields,Gavin) PENALTY UAB Holding (Lepkowski,Adam) 10 yards from UAB26 to UAB16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+6
36.1%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 6 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
35.5%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Iverson HooksSimilar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-5
35.1%
PENALTY UAB False Start 5 yards from UAB22 to UAB17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
35.1%
Patrick Foley punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 4:3665% → 66%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
34.6%
Hayden Reed run for 9 yds to the ARMY 48Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+4
34.3%
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the UAB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
34.0%
Noah Short run for 7 yds to the UAB 41Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+4
33.5%
Jake Rendina run for 4 yds to the UAB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
33.6%
PENALTY ARM False Start (Gennarelli,Paolo) 5 yards from UAB37 to UAB42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 15
OPP 42
-8
33.8%
Army Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Dewayne Coleman) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 23
50
+10
34.3%
David Clerk run for 10 yds to the UAB 40Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+2
33.3%
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the UAB 38Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
33.8%
James Wagenseller punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:4035% → 33%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
34.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 1 yd to the UAB 21Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-5
34.5%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Moore,Logan) 5 yards from UAB21 to UAB16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 14
OWN 16
-8
34.4%
(06:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Kitna,Jalen pass incomplete short right to Hooks,Iverson thrown to UAB32 QB hurried by Tuioti,Jacob PENALTY UAB Holding (Lepkowski,Adam) 8 yards from UAB16 to UAB08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 22
OWN 8
0
34.2%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Iverson HooksSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 22
OWN 8
+7
33.3%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Elijah Lagg for 7 yds to the UAB 15Similar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
33.0%
Patrick Foley punt for 39 yds , Lloyd Benson III returns for no gain to the ARMY 44 Lloyd Benson III fumbled, recovered by ARMY Jaylen JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:1268% → 67%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
32.0%
Briggs Bartosh run for 5 yds to the ARMY 49Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-15
31.8%
(04:55) Hellums,Cale rush left for 14 yards gain to the UAB37 (Fisher,Perry) PENALTY ARM Personal Foul (Williams,Teddy) 15 yards from ARM49 to ARM34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 20
OWN 34
+4
33.8%
Cale Hellums run for 4 yds to the ARMY 38Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+5
33.5%
Army Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:08
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
33.3%
James Wagenseller punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kaleb Brown at the UAB 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 1:4334% → 53%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+26
34.0%
Jevon Jackson run for 26 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
34.6%
Jevon Jackson run for 2 yds to the UAB 38Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
34.8%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Brandon Hawkins Jr.Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+47
33.8%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 47 yds to the ARMY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
38.3%
(01:52) Shotgun Rogers,Nate rush left for 4 yards gain to the ARM11 (Fortner,Kalib) PENALTY UAB Holding (Sneh,Brandon) 10 yards from ARM15 to ARM25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+6
37.7%
Jevon Jackson run for 6 yds to the ARMY 19Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 14
OPP 19
0
37.5%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Kaleb BrownSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+18
35.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Antonio Ferguson for 18 yds to the ARMY 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.2%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Xavier Daisy for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8FG
12 plays · 40 yds · 0:5756% → 60%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
44.4%
Cale Hellums run for 5 yds to the ARMY 36Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+10
43.1%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Hellums,Cale pass incomplete short right to Olawole,Tobi thrown to UAB45 QB hurried by Morrison,Amorie PENALTY UAB Holding (McDaniel,T'sai) 10 yards from ARM36 to ARM46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
42.0%
Cale Hellums run for 13 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
41.1%
Cale Hellums run for 5 yds to the UAB 36Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
40.7%
Cale Hellums pass incomplete to Parker PoloskeySimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+4
41.3%
Cale Hellums run for 4 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+3
42.7%
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
40.0%
Cale Hellums pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+45
36.6%
Dawson Jones 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
40.2%
PENALTY ARM UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Parks,Lane) 15 yards from ARM35 to ARM20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:0460% → 58%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.8%
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the ARMY 29Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
39.2%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the ARMY 31Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
40.0%
Carson Smith run for 1 yd to the ARMY 32Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
41.7%
James Wagenseller punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10MISSED FG
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:3341% → 43%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
41.1%
Jevon Jackson run for 30 yds to the ARMY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
45.1%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 2 yds to the ARMY 43Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
45.3%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Antonio FergusonSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+23
44.3%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Isaiah Jacobs for 23 yds to the ARMY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
46.8%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
46.9%
Jevon Jackson run for 8 yds to the ARMY 12Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 2
OPP 12
0
45.2%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Jevon JacksonSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+30
43.4%
Jonah Delange 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:3861% → 79%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+41
39.5%
Cale Hellums pass complete to Samari Howard for 41 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
36.6%
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the UAB 36Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+6
36.3%
Cale Hellums run for 6 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+3
36.5%
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the UAB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
35.1%
Carson Smith run for 6 yds to the UAB 21Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
35.0%
Carson Smith run for 5 yds to the UAB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
35.0%
(06:35) Hellums,Cale rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UAB14 (McDaniel,T'sai) PENALTY UAB Offside (Burge,Chris) 5 yards from UAB16 to UAB11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 5
OPP 11
+2
35.0%
Cale Hellums run for 2 yds to the UAB 9Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+4
34.9%
Jake Rendina run for 4 yds to the UAB 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
20.8%
Cale Hellums run for 5 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:0680% → 77%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
20.5%
Cale Hellums run for no gain to the UAB 28Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
20.5%
Noah Short run for 4 yds to the UAB 24Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+3
20.7%
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the UAB 21Similar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 3
OPP 21
0
22.6%
Cale Hellums pass incomplete to Noah ShortSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:4724% → 23%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
23.5%
Jevon Jackson run for 3 yds to the UAB 24Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-5
23.9%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Ferguson,Antonio) 5 yards from UAB24 to UAB19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 12
OWN 19
-21
23.0%
Jalen Kitna pass intercepted Gavin Shields return for 21 yds to the UAB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:2481% → 95%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
19.2%
Hayden Reed run for 6 yds to the UAB 6Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+2
19.1%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the UAB 4Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
19.5%
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the UAB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.4%
Cale Hellums run for no gain to the UAB 1Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.3%
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15DOWNS
13 plays · 52 yds · 3:009% → 7%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
8.5%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 17 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
8.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 13 yds to the ARMY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
9.1%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Xavier Daisy for 4 yds to the ARMY 44Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-5
9.3%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Hooks,Iverson) 5 yards from ARM44 to ARM49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+7
8.2%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Xavier Daisy for 7 yds to the ARMY 42Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
8.0%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Brandon Hawkins Jr.Similar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+12
7.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to J.C. Sivley for 12 yds to the ARMY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
8.6%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Iverson HooksSimilar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
8.4%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to J.C. SivleySimilar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+4
7.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 4 yds to the ARMY 26Similar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 6
OPP 26
0
6.7%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Brandon Hawkins Jr.Similar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 6
OPP 26
0
6.7%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Brandon Hawkins Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:2595% → 96%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
4.7%
PENALTY ARM Illegal Snap (Small,Brady) 5 yards from ARM26 to ARM21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+17
4.6%
Noah Short run for 17 yds to the ARMY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
4.0%
Cale Hellums run for 4 yds to the ARMY 42Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
3.9%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the ARMY 44Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+3
3.6%
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the ARMY 47Similar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 1
OWN 47
-5
3.7%
PENALTY ARM False Start (Poloskey,Parker) 5 yards from ARM47 to ARM42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+5
3.6%
James Wagenseller punt for 43 yds , Kaleb Brown returns for 5 yds to the UAB 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:255% → 4%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
4.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Elijah Lagg for 2 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-5
4.7%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Sivley,J.C.) 5 yards from UAB22 to UAB17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
4.6%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Delvon GulleySimilar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+3
4.2%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 3 yds to the UAB 20Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
3.8%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Iverson HooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:2898% → 100%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
2.5%
Carson Smith run for 7 yds to the UAB 13Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+4
2.4%
Cale Hellums run for 4 yds to the UAB 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
1.9%
Carson Smith run for 4 yds to the UAB 5Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.5%
Cale Hellums run for 5 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 2:531% → 2%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
0.9%
Jalen Kitna run for 6 yds to the UAB 27Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+19
0.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 19 yds to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
0.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Xavier Daisy for 10 yds to the ARMY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
0.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 15 yds to the ARMY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
0.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Xavier Daisy for 7 yds to the ARMY 22Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
0.9%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Iverson HooksSimilar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+4
0.8%
Jevon Jackson run for 4 yds to the ARMY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
0.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Jevon Jackson for 11 yds to the ARMY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
0.8%
Jalen Kitna run for 6 yds to the ARMY 1Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.8%
Jevon Jackson run for no gain to the ARMY 1Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.7%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Antonio FergusonSimilar
Q4 0:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.9%
Ryder Burton run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:2899% → 99%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
0.8%
Z. Mundell takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-1
0.8%
Z. Mundell takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:11
Cale Hellums run for 5 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
-14.1
TD · Q2 1:16
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Xavier Daisy for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
+13.4
TD · Q4 14:18
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
-13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com