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CLT

Charlotte 26 at South Florida 54

USF
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 3, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:17 · Gaston Moore pass complete to JeyQuan Smith for 13 yds to the CLT 11 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 199Pregame prior+1.7Home team on offense+32.7Score differential+23.9Garbage-time factor+14.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.6Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:03: Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 10 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK) — USF win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:44: CJ Stokes run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK) — CLT win probability +2.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:39: Liam Boyd 33 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:58: Zach Wilcke pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 2 yds for a TD (Zach Wilcke pass to Jake Young for Two-Point Conversion) — CLT win probability +4.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:11: Byrum Brown pass complete to Evan Dangler for 1 yd for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK) — USF win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CLT made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:31CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:25CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:23CLT 4th & 12 at CLT 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:34USF 4th & 10 at USF 48, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:40CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 6, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:15USF 4th & 5 at CLT 25, up 23
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.8%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:24CLT 4th & 24 at CLT 28, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:21CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 36, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:26USF 4th & 3 at CLT 43, up 26
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:00CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 22, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:52USF 4th & 1 at midfield, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.2%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:39CLT 4th & 5 at USF 15, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:52USF 4th & 7 at USF 28, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:53USF 4th & 3 at CLT 35, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:17USF 4th & 2 at CLT 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−<0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 14:01USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:07USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:03USF Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:44CLT Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:10USF Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:58CLT Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:11USF Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:48USF Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:10CLT Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.6%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:43USF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:5497% → 97%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to JeyQuan SmithSimilar
Q1 14:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+27
96.9%
Byrum Brown run for 12 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST down Charlotte Penalty, Personal Foul (Kadin Schmitz) to the CLT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
96.8%
Byrum Brown run for 11 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
96.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
96.8%
Cartevious Norton run for 37 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:213% → 3%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.8%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
96.8%
Cameren Smith run for 4 yds to the CLT 24Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
96.7%
Grayson Loftis run for no gain to the CLT 24Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
96.7%
Bronson Long punt for 45 yds, downed at the USF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:3897% → 97%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
96.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 5 yds to the USF 36Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+11
96.6%
Alvon Isaac run for 11 yds to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
96.6%
Byrum Brown run for 9 yds to the CLT 44Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+15
96.6%
Brown, Byrum pass incomplete to Singleton, Keshaun, PENALTY CHARLOTTE pass interference 15 yards to the CHARLOTTE29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
96.5%
Brown, Byrum pass complete to Nimrod, Chas for 15 yards to the CHARLOTTE14, PENALTY SOUFLA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the CHARLOTTE34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+11
96.5%
Alvon Isaac run for 10 yds to the CLT 35 Alvon Isaac fumbled, recovered by CLT Caleb Curtain , return for 11 yds to the CLT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:004% → 4%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.3%
Cameren Smith run for 3 yds to the CLT 38Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-3
96.3%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for a loss of 3 yards to the CLT 35Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
96.3%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Miles BurrisSimilar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+13
96.3%
Bronson Long punt for 55 yds , Joshua Porter returns for 13 yds to the USF 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:1396% → 97%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
96.3%
Byrum Brown run for 14 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
96.2%
Sam Franklin run for 4 yds to the USF 41Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+11
96.2%
Sam Franklin run for 11 yds to the CLT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
96.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Keshaun SingletonSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
96.2%
Sam Franklin run for 9 yds to the CLT 39Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+1
96.1%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the CLT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
96.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Koger for 38 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6SF
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:374% → 4%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
96.5%
Cameren Smith run for no gain to the CLT 7Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-3
96.4%
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (-3 Yards) to the CLT 4Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 13
OWN 4
0
96.4%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Cameren SmithSimilar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 13
OWN 4
+1
96.4%
Cameren Smith run for 1 yd to the CLT 5Similar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 12
OWN 5
0
96.3%
TEAM punt blocked by Jair Murphy for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:4297% → 96%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
96.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian NeptuneSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
96.5%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the USF 24Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+24
96.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 24 yds to the USF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
96.6%
Christian Neptune run for no gain to the USF 48Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
96.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
96.5%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Keshaun SingletonSimilar
Q1 3:34
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
96.4%
Chase Leon punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:504% → 4%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
96.2%
Grayson Loftis run for 1 yd to the CLT 6Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 9
OWN 6
0
96.1%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jake YoungSimilar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 9
OWN 6
0
96.1%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jariel CobbSimilar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 9
OWN 6
0
96.1%
Bronson Long punt for 34 yds, downed at the CLT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:3597% → 98%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.5%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to JeyQuan SmithSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
96.5%
Sam Franklin run for 6 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+9
96.5%
Sam Franklin run for 9 yds to the CLT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
96.5%
Byrum Brown run for 13 yds to the CLT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
96.5%
Sam Franklin run for 2 yds to the CLT 10Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
97.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 10 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:363% → 3%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Jariel Cobb run for no gain to the CLT 25Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-26
97.4%
Grayson Loftis pass intercepted Jarvis Lee return for 26 yds to the CLT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0098% → 97%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
97.6%
Cartevious Norton run for 1 yd to the CLT 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
97.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Cartevious NortonSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+4
97.6%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the CLT 25Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
97.2%
Nico Gramatica 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 3 yds · 1:512% → 2%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.1%
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CLT 20Similar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
98.2%
CJ Stokes run for 1 yd to the CLT 21Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+21
98.2%
CJ Stokes run for 21 yds to the CLT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
97.9%
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CLT 37Similar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 15
OWN 37
0
97.8%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to E. Jai MasonSimilar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 15
OWN 37
0
97.8%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Miles BurrisSimilar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 15
OWN 37
-9
97.9%
Grayson Loftis sacked by Jaelen Stokes for a loss of 9 yards to the CLT 28 Charlotte Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the CLT 28Similar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 24
OWN 28
+33
97.9%
Bronson Long punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USF 34 Charlotte Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the USF 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:4598% → 98%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
97.5%
Sam Franklin run for 4 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+15
97.7%
Brown, Byrum pass incomplete to Koger, Jeremiah, PENALTY CHARLOTTE pass interference 15 yards to the CHARLOTTE42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
97.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Koger for 6 yds to the CLT 36Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 4
OPP 36
-3
97.8%
Sam Franklin run for a loss of 3 yards to the CLT 39Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+8
97.7%
Sam Franklin run for 8 yds to the CLT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
97.9%
Byrum Brown run for 30 yds to the CLT 31 Byrum Brown fumbled, recovered by CLT Dwight Bootle II , return for 31 yds to the CLT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:062% → 2%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
97.6%
CJ Stokes run for 3 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
97.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Gus McGee for 2 yds to the CLT 36Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
97.7%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to CJ StokesSimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
97.8%
Bronson Long punt for 45 yds , Joshua Porter returns for no gain to the USF 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:3498% → 99%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
98.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Cartevious Norton for 3 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+13
98.2%
Cartevious Norton run for 13 yds to the USF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
98.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
50
+2
98.3%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the CLT 48Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+1
98.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 1 yd to the CLT 47Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+4
98.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 4 yds to the CLT 43Similar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
98.5%
Chase Leon punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:152% → 2%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
98.2%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Javen Nicholas for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 18Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+4
98.3%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Sean Brown for 4 yds to the CLT 22Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
98.3%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
98.4%
Bronson Long punt for 50 yds, downed at the USF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
98.7%
Byrum Brown pass intercepted Kadin Schmitz return for 5 yds to the USF 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:502% → 4%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+27
97.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Sean Brown for 27 yds to the USF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
98.1%
Zach Wilcke run for 6 yds to the USF 1Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 0
OPP 1
0
98.1%
Charlotte Penalty, Offensive Offside (Yards) to the USF 1Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.8%
CJ Stokes run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:3098% → 99%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.6%
Nykahi Davenport run for 9 yds to the USF 34Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
97.5%
Nykahi Davenport run for 7 yds to the USF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.6%
Nykahi Davenport run for no gain to the USF 41Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
97.9%
Nykahi Davenport run for no gain to the USF 41Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
97.8%
Charlotte Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the USF 46Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+4
97.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 1
50
+3
97.7%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the CLT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
97.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 6 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+10
97.8%
Nykahi Davenport run for 10 yds to the CLT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
98.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 13 yds Mudia Reuben fumbled, recovered by USFSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 18 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:331% → 1%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.2%
CJ Stokes run for 5 yds to the CLT 40Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-2
99.2%
CJ Stokes run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 5:161% → 2%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.2%
CJ Stokes run for 12 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.0%
CJ Stokes run for 3 yds to the CLT 40Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
99.0%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Joey Bearns III for 9 yds to the CLT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.1%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Javen Nicholas for no gain to the CLT 49Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
99.1%
CJ Stokes run for no gain to the CLT 49Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+31
99.1%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 31 yds to the USF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
99.0%
CJ Stokes run for 2 yds to the USF 18Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+1
99.0%
CJ Stokes run for 1 yd to the USF 17Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+2
99.4%
Zach Wilcke run for 2 yds to the USF 15Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
98.1%
Liam Boyd 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3898% → 98%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.3%
Cartevious Norton run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 24Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
98.3%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USF 19Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
98.3%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Keshaun SingletonSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+9
98.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 9 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+14
98.1%
Chase Leon punt for 46 yds , Javen Nicholas returns for 14 yds to the CLT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:032% → 2%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.4%
CJ Stokes run for no gain to the CLT 40Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
98.4%
Wilcke, Zach pass incomplete to Nicholas, Javen, PENALTY SOUFLA pass interference 15 yards to the SOUFLA45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CHARLOTTE.Similar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
98.4%
South Florida Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the USF 40Similar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 5
OPP 40
+20
98.3%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Sean Brown for 20 yds to the USF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
98.2%
Cameren Smith run for 2 yds to the USF 18Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+7
98.2%
CJ Stokes run for 7 yds to the USF 25 CJ Stokes fumbled, recovered by USF Jaelen Stokes , return for 14 yds to the USF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:5298% → 99%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
98.4%
Sam Franklin run for 19 yds to the USF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.7%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Mudia ReubenSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+14
98.7%
Byrum Brown run for 14 yds to the CLT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
98.7%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Keshaun SingletonSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-2
98.7%
Sam Franklin run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 44Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+9
98.7%
Byrum Brown run for 9 yds to the CLT 35Similar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
98.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Mudia ReubenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:281% → 1%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
98.6%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Sean Brown for 7 yds to the CLT 42Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
98.7%
Zach Wilcke run for 1 yd to the CLT 43Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
98.7%
Cameren Smith run for 3 yds to the CLT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
98.8%
Cameren Smith run for 10 yds to the USF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
98.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 10 yds Javen Nicholas fumbled, recovered by USF Mac Harris , return for 1 yd to the USF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26INT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:2799% → 99%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.0%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 37Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+18
99.0%
Nykahi Davenport run for 18 yds to the CLT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.1%
Nykahi Davenport run for 4 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+1
99.1%
Nykahi Davenport run for 1 yd to the CLT 40Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-56
99.1%
Byrum Brown pass intercepted Ja'Qurious Conley return for 56 yds to the USF 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 27TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:471% → 5%
Q4 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.9%
Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Miles BurrisSimilar
Q4 14:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
98.9%
Cameren Smith run for 2 yds to the USF 2Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 2 yds for a TD (Zach Wilcke pass to Jake Young for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 4:4497% → 99%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Koger for 3 yds to the USF 38Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
96.9%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 40Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+7
96.9%
Byrum Brown run for 7 yds to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.1%
Cartevious Norton run for no gain to the USF 47Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
97.1%
Byrum Brown run for 9 yds to the CLT 44Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
97.1%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the CLT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
97.2%
Cartevious Norton run for 5 yds to the CLT 37Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
97.4%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the CLT 35Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+3
97.3%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the CLT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
97.4%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+28
97.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Koger for 28 yds to the CLT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
97.4%
Cartevious Norton run for 1 yd to the CLT 1Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Evan Dangler for 1 yd for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-15
99.2%
South Florida Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the USF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 29INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
50
-7
99.2%
Zach Wilcke pass intercepted D.J. Harris return for 7 yds to the USF 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 30TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:1299% → 100%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.3%
Sam Franklin run for 2 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+15
99.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 15 yds to the CLT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
99.3%
Sam Franklin run for 7 yds to the CLT 29Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+8
99.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 8 yds to the CLT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
99.4%
Byrum Brown run for 8 yds to the CLT 13Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 2
OPP 13
0
99.4%
Sam Franklin run for no gain to the CLT 13Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Byrum Brown run for 13 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 31TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:380% → 1%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CLT 20Similar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Zach Wilcke run for 1 yd to the CLT 21Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+10
99.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jariel Cobb for 10 yds to the CLT 31Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Miles Burris for 5 yds to the CLT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Jaylen HamptonSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
99.9%
Jariel Cobb run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
50
+21
99.9%
Jariel Cobb run for 21 yds to the USF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.9%
Cameren Smith run for 2 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+11
99.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jaylen Hampton for 11 yds to the USF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.3%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Derrick Eley for 16 yds for a TD (Zach Wilcke pass to Jake Young for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 32TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.5%
Nykahi Davenport run for 5 yds to the CLT 38Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+6
99.5%
Nykahi Davenport run for 6 yds to the CLT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
99.6%
Nykahi Davenport run for 2 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+3
99.6%
Nykahi Davenport run for 3 yds to the CLT 27Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+3
99.6%
Nykahi Davenport run for 3 yds to the CLT 24Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+13
99.5%
Gaston Moore pass complete to JeyQuan Smith for 13 yds to the CLT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
99.6%
Nykahi Davenport run for 4 yds to the CLT 7Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
100.0%
Nykahi Davenport run for 7 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 33END OF GAME
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
100.0%
Jariel Cobb run for 12 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:58
Zach Wilcke pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 2 yds for a TD (Zach Wilcke pass to Jake Young for Two-Point Conversion)
-4
TD · Q2 3:44
CJ Stokes run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK)
-2.3
TD · Q4 9:11
Byrum Brown pass complete to Evan Dangler for 1 yd for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com